Matchup Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Eagles 27, Dolphins 18

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Eagles Offense22.1 (-0.3) (18)121 (+9) (13)217 (-18) (23)
Dolphins Defense31.5 (+9.1) (32)148 (+36) (31)253 (+17) (22)

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense14.8 (-7.6) (30)63 (-48) (32)202 (-33) (26)
Eagles Defense22.5 (+0.1) (16)94 (-17) (5)232 (-3) (12)

Eagles Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Philadelphia's number-one running back, Jordan Howard, has missed the last two games due to a shoulder stinger that has his status in question once again leading up to Week 13. In his absence, Miles Sanders has played over 80-percent of the team's offensive snaps, and he should continue to do so if Howard misses out once again this weekend. Miles Sanders' production across these two weeks without Jordan Howard has been unimpressive, topping out at 63 yards on 12 carries last weekend against the Seattle Seahawks. Philadelphia's banged-up offensive line and general lack of a passing attack have stacked the deck against the ground game, righting the ship down the stretch, but a matchup against the Miami Dolphins is as good as it gets this weekend. Without Jordan Howard in the picture, Miles Sanders should be able to scrape together a respectable stat line against one of the league's worst run defenses. If Howard returns to the fold, he and Sanders will likely split work, heavily downgrading the viability of Philadelphia's rookie running back.

On the whole, Miami's defense lacks talent both defending the pass and the run, as they rank 6th-worst in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. As the Dolphins are almost always playing from behind, their opponent's rushing attacks have had no trouble establishing the run, forcing Miami's defense to defend the third-most rushing attempts in the league. The Dolphins' efficiency numbers leave much to be desired, ranking 7th-worst in the NFL at 4.7 yards per carry allowed. This combination of top-tier volume and bottom-rung efficiency fosters a healthy fantasy environment for opposing running backs, as Miami has already allowed 6 100-yard rushing performances this season. Their run defense lacks any positive difference-makers, and although Philadelphia's backfield has been inconsistent and relatively unproductive, especially in recent weeks, the Eagles could be in for a big day on the ground here in Week 13. If Jordan Howard is inactive once again, Miles Sanders should be in for a heavy workload against one of the league's worst run defenses, making him a premier fantasy target this weekend.

Eagles Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Philadelphia's passing attack, thanks to a banged-up receiving corps and mediocre quarterback performance, has been one of the most disappointing groups in the NFL. Carson Wentz has posted 5 consecutive passing days under 7.5 yards per attempt, which already an unimpressive number that would rank 14th in the league over the course of a full season. Last week, the Eagles trotted a starting group of receivers the ranked no-higher than fourth on the team's preseason depth chart. The lack of chemistry between Wentz and the Eagles' patchwork group of pass-catchers has left Philadelphia's passing game ranked amongst the worst in the NFL in 2019. Zach Ertz has returned to his form of yesteryear in the absence of other viable pass-catchers recently. Ertz has recorded at least 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 91 receiving yards in each of his last 3 games, and if the team's wide receiving unit does not return to near-full-health this weekend, he should be in for another high-volume afternoon through the air in Week 13. Keep an eye on the status of both Nelson Algholor and Alshon Jeffery this week, as both are questionable right now. Either player would immediately become a focal point of Philadelphia's passing game upon returning to the lineup, as the drop off in talent from them to the next-tier of wide receivers is substantial. Additionally, the Eagles' once-top-ranked offensive line is battling injuries, especially on the right side, with Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson uncertain for this weekend's game against Miami. If they are unable to go, expect Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Andre Dillard to fill in at right guard and right tackle, respectively.

Playing from behind, the typical game script of a Miami Dolphins game this season calls for a run-heavy offensive attack out of their opponents, leading to their defense facing the fifth-fewest pass attempts of any team in the NFL through 11 games. Although they've faced exceptionally-low volume through the air, Miami's horrific efficiency metrics (31st in net yards per attempt allowed through the air) have fostered a fantasy-friendly passing environment for opposing passing attacks all season. The Dolphins have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and their 26-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is one of the worst in the league. Miami has allowed 5 100-yard receiving days, including performances of at least 9 catches, 135 yards, and multiple receiving touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for multiple scores in 9 out of 11 games this season, and, simply put, there is no redeeming quality for this defense. The Miami Dolphins lack any difference-makers against the pass this season, and this is a matchup ripe for the picking for the Philadelphia Eagles' struggling passing attack. Although Carson Wentz has been held in check for most of the season, a Week 13 clash with the Miami Dolphins' horrific defense is exactly what the doctor ordered for Philadelphia's passing game to get back on track.

Dolphins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

The Miami Dolphins' patchwork backfield features one of the least-efficient running backs the league has seen in ages, along with two recently-acquired youngsters to spell him. Kalen Ballage, a second-year running back out of Arizona State, has mustered just 1.9 yards per carry on 71 rushing attempts this season, by far the worst total amongst qualified rushers. Aside from Ballage, Myles Gaskin, a rookie seventh-round selection from Washington, is seeing his snap-count creep up, going from 8-percent to 10-percent, and then to 25-percent over the last 3 weeks, respectively. Lastly, Patrick Laird, an undrafted free agent out of the University of California, has begun to contribute to not only special teams but also offense. Laird's production is ignorable, but his snap-count creeping up to 37-percent last weekend turns this backfield into a true 3-way timeshare for snaps and carries. Given the lack of a true bell-cow running back, along with the team's horrific offensive line, this situation is likely the least-attractive in the entire NFL, especially in a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles' run defense.

Philadelphia allowed just its second 100-yard performance of the season last week against the Seattle Seahawks, as Rashaad Penny racked up over 50-percent of his total rushing yardage on one 58-yard touchdown scamper early in the 4th quarter. On the season, the Eagles have been one of the most consistent rushing defenses, allowing the 9th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs on just 4.1 yards per carry. Philadelphia's defensive strategy, as dictated by Jim Schwartz, the team's defensive coordinator, is to prioritize stopping the run. Although their defensive personnel, aside from their defensive line, is unimpressive in run-support, their deployment ensures they will not be gashed on the ground in most weeks. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham headline the team's run defense in the trenches, as both players, excel at filling running lanes and shedding blocks to blow up plays in the backfield. Graham and Cox get little support elsewhere, as their defense lacks play-makers against the run at either the second or third level. In all, Miami's lackluster ground game will have its work cut out for itself this weekend if they attempt to establish any semblance of a rushing attack on Philadelphia's formidable defense.

Dolphins Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Miami's 2019 passing game and season, in general, has been a master class in disaster. Playing from behind, the Dolphins throw the ball in volume each week. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick's efficiency distributing the ball ranks amongst the league's worst quarterbacks, posting just 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt, good enough for 32nd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks this year. Since standout rookie receiver, Preston Williams, went down with a season-ending knee injury three weeks ago, DeVante Parker has emerged as the number-one receiver for Fitzpatrick. Parker has posted 3 straight games with at least 10 targets since Williams' injury. Elsewhere, Albert Wilson, Allen Hurns, and Mike Gesicki have also commanded about 6 targets per game over that stretch. Miami's offensive line is the biggest issue with the team's offense, as they have allowed the most pressures and sacks in the league. Without adequate performance in the trenches, there is no hope for this unit piecing together high-efficiency passing days down the stretch, but DeVante Parker's increased volume is eye-catching.

After a shaky start of the season, Philadelphia's pass defense has improved dramatically over the last five weeks. The Eagles have faced medial volume through the air while allowing 6.2 net yards per attempt, which ranks 15th in the league, but the results have been much stronger in recent weeks. After allowing 6 100-yard receiving performances over the first 6 games of the season, Philadelphia has allowed just 1 such performance over their last 5 games. Across their 5 most-recent games, Philadelphia's defense has allowed no more than 239 passing yards in any game, and they've only allowed 2 passing scores once. This improvement against the pass aligns almost perfectly with cornerback Jalen Mills' return to the lineup. Aside from Mills' impressive 2019 performance against the pass, Philadelphia's secondary has been a relatively weak unit, and the strength of their defense is in the trenches. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox make up one of the league's top pass-rushing duos along the defensive line, and in 2019 they've lived up to expectations. In all, Philadelphia's defense is an improving unit against the pass, and a Week 13 matchup with Miami's horrendous offense should prove to be one of the easiest games of the season for this defense. Expect Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins' offense to struggle to move the ball through the air against Philadelphia this weekend.

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.1)28 (+4.0)30 (+4.5)27 (+4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.1)25 (+2.1)26 (+2.3)24 (+2.1)
9Sam Darnold7027392601121016.116.113.513.5
10Brian Hoyer7018392041320011.
11Josh Allen72213325630756136.436.433.833.8
12Baker Mayfield7524343273125027.927.924.627.6

Carson Wentz (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5800)

11vs NE75204021410317016.416.412.313.3
12vs SEA76334525612527017.517.510.912.9
13PROJ-Dodds22342501.80.83140.120.920.920.9 (H=52)20.9 (H=66)
13PROJ-Tremblay23362511.80.94180. (H=54)21.2 (H=68)
13PROJ-Bloom2332277213130.122.822.822.8 (H=61)22.8 (H=77)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.6)27 (+3.8)28 (+4.3)29 (+4.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.3)19 (-0.0)19 (+0.3)19 (+0.0)
9LeVeon Bell63176609855012.
9Bilal Powell7216000001.
10Marlon Mack321974011808.
10Nyheim Hines303140743004.
11Devin Singletary531575011407.
11Frank Gore1911270211804.
12Nick Chubb432110614358022.425.423.928.4
12Kareem Hunt438371329010.612.611.612.6

Miles Sanders (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5400)

11vs NE641138042.0904.
12vs SEA641263053.02308.611.610.111.6
13PROJ-Dodds14560.33.3350.111.514.813.2 (H=30)14.9 (H=39)
13PROJ-Tremblay15660.44.2390.113.517.715.7 (H=40)17.8 (H=54)
13PROJ-Bloom11450.33.0310.210.613.612.2 (H=26)13.7 (H=34)

Jay Ajayi (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs NE000000.000000.00.0
12vs SEA9616000.0001.
13PROJ-Dodds9380.30.0005.65.65.6 (H=8)5.6 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay9370.30.0005.55.55.5 (H=7)5.5 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom14620.50.0009.29.29.2 (H=19)9.2 (H=31)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.6)25 (+3.6)28 (+4.2)24 (+3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.9)22 (+4.6)22 (+4.3)24 (+5.1)
9Jamison Crowder599883100014.322.318.322.3
9Robby Anderson67423300003.
10Chester Rogers35423100003.
10Zach Pascal69722600002.
11John Brown71149137200025.734.730.237.7
11Cole Beasley65443800003.
12Jarvis Landry711310148200026.836.831.839.8
12Odell Beckham758684100014.420.417.420.4

Alshon Jeffery (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5100)

11vs NE000.000000000.00.0
12vs SEA000.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3.5430.30006.19.67.9 (H=11)9.6 (H=19)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.8330.30005.17.96.5 (H=7)7.9 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0590.50008.912.910.9 (H=19)12.9 (H=32)

Nelson Agholor (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4400)

11vs NE6694.0400000486.08.0
12vs SEA000.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.5270.20003.96.45.2 (H=7)6.4 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.6290.30004.77.36.0 (H=9)7.3 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0330.3190.16.610.68.6 (H=17)10.6 (H=27)

Greg Ward (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4100)

12vs SEA3776.04000004107.010.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.6260.20003.86.45.1 (H=6)6.4 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.3310.20004.36.65.5 (H=7)6.6 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

11vs NE1911.02900002.
12vs SEA5452.04300004.
13PROJ-Dodds1.5250.10003.14.63.9 (H=4)4.6 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.6220.20003.454.2 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0370.20004.96.95.9 (H=8)6.9 (H=17)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.0)17 (+0.0)18 (-0.0)19 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.8)21 (+1.0)21 (+0.9)20 (+0.9)
9Ryan Griffin65865005.
10Jack Doyle424344110.413.411.913.4
11Dawson Knox51323219.
12Demetrius Harris51222002.

Zach Ertz (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6700)

11vs NE67119.09409.418.413.918.4
12vs SEA661412.091115.
13PROJ-Dodds6.1670. (H=22)15.2 (H=33)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.6610.48.514.111.3 (H=19)14.1 (H=29)
13PROJ-Bloom6.0780.410.216.213.2 (H=25)16.2 (H=37)

Dallas Goedert (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4100)

11vs NE6163.03619.612.611.112.6
12vs SEA6687.03203.
13PROJ-Dodds3.7360.469.77.9 (H=13)9.7 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.2300. (H=11)8.6 (H=20)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0390.46.310.38.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=27)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.7)31 (+2.7)31 (+3.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30T (+3.4)30T (+3.4)31 (+4.2) (+0.0)
9Sam Ficken3411101013.013.0
10Adam Vinatieri2201666.06.0
11Steve Hauschka3344131315.015.0
12Austin Seibert2355111112.012.0

Jake Elliott (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs NE1111445.05.0
12vs SEA1100333.03.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+3.2)30 (+3.2)32 (+5.1)32 (+5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.1)17 (+0.1)18T (+0.3)18T (+0.3)
9New York Jets2631640010666.06.0
10Indianapolis Colts1622931100778.08.0
11Buffalo Bills20303701009910.010.0
12Cleveland Browns2428442000888.08.0

Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

11vs NE17.0029810000112.02.0
12vs SEA17.0034861100101011.011.0
13PROJ-Dodds17.703022.91.20.800.612.212.212.2 (H=30)12.2 (H=42)
13PROJ-Tremblay18.253032. (H=25)11.0 (H=35)

Eagles vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.9)12 (-0.9)11 (-1.2)12 (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-9.8)1 (-9.8)1 (-9.5)1 (-10.1)
9Mitchell Trubisky4510211250021507.
11Tom Brady742647216001-1010.710.78.58.5
12Russell Wilson65132520011315014.514.510.511.5

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5400)

10@ IND63213316901423115.815.814.114.1
11vs BUF6932453230010016.216.212.915.9
12@ CLE63213921422545127.
13PROJ-Dodds22352341.21.23140.217.917.917.9 (H=41)17.9 (H=54)
13PROJ-Tremblay20322211.113120.216.916.916.9 (H=37)16.9 (H=49)
13PROJ-Bloom22362071.314210.318.418.418.4 (H=43)18.4 (H=57)

Eagles vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.5)9 (-2.1)9 (-2.1)9 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.4)21 (+1.7)22 (+2.4)23 (+2.7)
9David Montgomery33144024336019.622.621.122.6
9Tarik Cohen1627052901.
11Rex Burkhead215140323404.
11Sony Michel2210330421104.
12Rashaad Penny30141291100018.918.918.921.9
12Chris Carson358260443105.

Kalen Ballage (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4000)

10@ IND542043044.0204.
11vs BUF5399165.0807.712.710.212.7
12@ CLE24713011.01302.
13PROJ-Dodds10300.32.21506.38.57.4 (H=12)8.5 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay10370.32.215079.28.1 (H=14)9.2 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom9170. (H=6)6.3 (H=12)

Patrick Laird (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

10@ IND824022.01501.
11vs BUF1617066.05105.811.88.811.8
12@ CLE23320010.000222.02.0
13PROJ-Dodds4130.12.1160. (H=7)6.2 (H=14)
13PROJ-Tremblay3130.12.3170. (H=7)6.5 (H=15)
13PROJ-Bloom2902.0150.1354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)

Myles Gaskin (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ IND500011.000010.51.0
11vs BUF710010.000000.00.0
12@ CLE16410011.0701.
13PROJ-Dodds4130.11.0702.63.63.1 (H=3)3.6 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay4170.10.8602.93.73.3 (H=3)3.7 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom31001.0401.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Eagles vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.2)24 (+3.5)27 (+3.9)26 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.2)6 (-7.3)6 (-5.8)6 (-8.4)
9Taylor Gabriel30336900006.
9Allen Robinson4351600000.
11Julian Edelman6610553000010.115.112.414.9
11Phillip Dorsett34533310009.312.310.812.3
12Malik Turner17213310009.310.39.810.3
12Tyler Lockett56213800003.

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5700)

10@ IND63105.06900006.911.99.411.9
11vs BUF62107.0135000013.520.517.023.5
12@ CLE63116.09100009.
13PROJ-Dodds4.9700.40009.414.311.9 (H=24)14.3 (H=35)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.0710.40009.514.512.0 (H=24)14.5 (H=36)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0710.40009.514.512.0 (H=24)14.5 (H=36)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4000)

10@ IND5942.03200003.
11vs BUF6064.05300005.
12@ CLE5774.042100010.
13PROJ-Dodds3.2420.20005.48.67.0 (H=11)8.6 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.3450.20005.797.4 (H=12)9.0 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0450.40006.910.98.9 (H=17)10.9 (H=31)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3900)

10@ IND3531.000000010.51.0
11vs BUF3663.02600002.
12@ CLE3076.03301403.
13PROJ-Dodds3.0280.21304.37.35.8 (H=8)7.3 (H=16)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.2340.21304.98.16.5 (H=10)8.1 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0310.10003.77.75.7 (H=8)7.7 (H=17)

Eagles vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.7)7 (-2.4)6 (-2.2)7 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.0)1 (-7.5)1 (-6.9)1 (-8.0)
9Trey Burton2710000.
11Ben Watson59435205.
12Jacob Hollister45422202.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

10@ IND4063.02802.
11vs BUF5964.01801.
12@ CLE5773.02818.811.810.311.8
13PROJ-Dodds3.5360. (H=10)8.3 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.8290. (H=7)6.9 (H=15)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0330. (H=10)8.5 (H=22)

Eagles vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-0.2)7T (-0.2)12T (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.3)7 (-1.3)6 (-2.0) (+0.0)
9Eddy Pineiro0022222.02.0
11Nick Folk3300999.09.0
12Jason Myers1122555.05.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ IND3311101013.013.0
11vs BUF0022222.02.0
12@ CLE1133666.06.0

Eagles vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (-0.1)17T (-0.1)21T (+0.5)21T (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.6)19 (+0.6)28 (+3.6)28 (+3.6)
9Chicago Bears2237340000444.04.0
11New England Patriots10255501007711.011.0
12Seattle Seahawks934432300131319.019.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2100)

10@ IND12.00300130007711.011.0
11vs BUF37.0042400001662.02.0
12@ CLE41.004671100033-1.0-1.0
13PROJ-Dodds27.203652.30.90.600. (H=16)6.7 (H=25)
13PROJ-Tremblay27.253712.40.90.600. (H=16)6.8 (H=26)