Matchup Analysis: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Titans 21, Colts 23

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense22.3 (-0.1) (16)123 (+11) (11)210 (-25) (25)
Colts Defense20.5 (-1.8) (12)97 (-14) (8)235 (+0) (16)

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense22.2 (-0.2) (17)144 (+32) (3)195 (-40) (28)
Titans Defense19.7 (-2.7) (9)104 (-7) (12)256 (+20) (24)

Titans Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Titans ground game continued to roll last week as they amassed a total of 219 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in the big win over Jacksonville. This offense has now eclipsed 110 rushing yards with at least two rushing touchdowns in three straight games. The offensive line is blocking very well and Derrick Henry, in particular, is really heating up. Henry has rushed for 83 or more yards in five straight games with six rushing touchdowns while ranking as the second-highest scoring fantasy running back over that span. In his last two games, Henry has been stellar as he rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs and 159 yards with two touchdowns last week against the Jaguars. Henry also had a nice game the last time he faced the Colts in Week 2, rushing 15 times for 81 yards and a touchdown behind what was a worse offensive line at the time. Henry and this rushing offense are firing on all cylinders now as they roll into Indianapolis.

The Colts defense has been tough on the run this season, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game (9th-fewest) while not allowing a single running back to exceed 88 rushing yards against them. It has been four weeks since this defense has allowed a rushing touchdown to running backs, limiting the position to just the second-fewest fantasy points per game (non-PPR) across their last four outings. They squared off against a hot Texans ground game last week and did a decent job limiting Carlos Hyde to just 67 rushing yards with no touchdowns. Darius Leonard continues to play very well at linebacker and is their top run-defender. The defensive line is also solid, particularly Justin Houston, who will be a mismatch on the outside. The Titans do have a strong offensive line as a whole, though, and will match up well against this Colts front as Derrick Henry tries to wear them down.

Titans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Titans continue to own one of the lowest volume passing attacks in the league, but it has been working with Ryan Tannehill at the helm largely due to the success of their rushing offense. Tannehill did have one of his better games under center last week as he completed 14-of-18 pass attempts for 259 yards and two touchdowns, averaging just over 14 passing yards per attempt. Most of those yards came from his receivers, though, as Tannehill completed few passes beyond 20 yards downfield. He is taking a few deep shots, but Tannehill has rarely connected on those opportunities. This lack of passing volume has been particularly troublesome for Titans receivers, as last week marked just the second time Tannehill has supported a receiver that exceeded 80 receiving yards. A.J. Brown has been a favorite target of Tannehill’s, leading the team in targets (27) since Week 7 while logging two games of 80 or more receiving yards over that five-game span. Brown did blow up for a big game last week, but he has also put forth some lackluster stat lines over that span--proving that he is indeed reliable on a few big plays to put up a respectable fantasy stat line. Corey Davis has all but fallen off the map in this offense, and the Titans will continue without tight end Delanie Walker for the remainder of the season as he was placed on Injured Reserve this week. Tight end Jonnu Smith has been productive, at times, but is still a low volume target in this offense.

The Colts' defense against the pass has been consistently average throughout the season. They did allow 298 and 296 passing yards with two touchdowns in each of their last two games against divisional opponents, but prior to Week 10, this defense had not allowed more than one passing touchdown in each of five straight games. They have also nabbed an interception in four straight games leading into this week. Cornerback Kenny Moore has two of those interceptions, as he has been the best of these Colts cornerbacks. Marvell Tell has played reasonably well, while Pierre Desir made his return to the field last week after missing time with a knee injury. Desir’s play has been suspect when healthy though, which should lead to A.J. Brown having the edge in their projected matchup. The Colts have been pretty stingy to tight ends as it has been seven games since a tight end has exceeded 30 yards against the Colts, limiting the position to just the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game in that seven-game span since their Week 6 bye. The Titans passing offense did struggle in their Week 2 meeting with the Colts, but the new quarterback, fully staffed offensive line, and further developed receiver in A.J. Brown should make a difference in this one.

Colts Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

With Marlon Mack inactive and Jordan Wilkins sidelined with a lingering ankle injury, the Colts rode the hot hand of Jonathan Williams for the second straight week as he rushed 26 times for 104 yards and a touchdown despite the losing effort against the Texans. It took twice as many carries last week, but Williams crossed the 100-yard mark for the second straight week while finding the end zone for the first time this season in his last game. Mack is expected to be sidelined again this week, however, Jordan Wilkins should be available as he was active last week but not quite healthy enough to make it onto the field. Nyhiem Hines did have a nice game with a season-high nine carries for 51 rushing yards last week, but he is still being held to just around a third of the snaps and is a clear secondary option in the ground game. The Colts offensive line is the group carrying this rushing offense, as their top tier play has been on full display and remains a huge reason why this rushing offense ranks third in the league with 144.2 rushing yards per game.

The Titans have an above-average run defense that has performed well for most of the season. The past three games have been rather tumultuous, however, as they have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over that span. In their defense, those games included multi-touchdown outings against Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette along with a meeting with the tip-top Chiefs offense in Week 10. Two of those three games also came without Jurrell Casey in the lineup--their top run-defender. Casey is back and healthy, and he completes what is a very talented defensive line with big-bodied run-stoppers at their disposal. The Titans also recently returned Jayon Brown, who has been one of their best linebackers this season. This Titans linebacker group may not be the best in pass coverage, but they are proficient in stopping the run and should cause problems for the Colts ground game. This Colts offensive line will see one of its stiffest challenges of the season against a fully-staffed and healthy Titans defensive line that held Marlon Mack to just 51 rushing yards on 20 attempts in their last outing. If not for a big run by Jordan Wilkins in that Week 2 meeting, it would have been one of the worst rushing performances of the season by this Colts offense.

Colts Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Colts passing offense has been one of the more unpredictable units in the league this season, but they clearly rank as a bottom-tier unit in terms of volume--averaging just 195.3 passing yards per game, good for 28th in the league. Jacoby Brissett has battled a knee injury over his past two games, and it has shown both on the field and in his stats as he was clearly hobbled last week and has failed to eclipse 150 passing yards in two straight games. Brissett has actually finished with fewer than 203 passing yards in six of the nine full games in which he has played. Touchdowns were supporting his performance earlier this season, but Brissett has passed for just one touchdown since Week 8. Injuries to Colts receivers have certainly not helped this passing offense, as they just got T.Y. Hilton back last week after a three-game absence. Hilton was clearly not fully recovered in his last game, and his involvement was kept to a minimum with just 37 percent of snaps played. However, Hilton still led the team in targets (6) and should play more snaps in this week’s contest. The tight end situation for the Colts has been tough to predict all season, but it will be clear this week as Eric Ebron has been placed in Injured Reserve due to ankle issues. This leaves Jack Doyle as the primary tight end for the Colts and a viable threat for red-zone looks.

The Titans passing defense clamped down last week as they held an opposing quarterback out of the end zone for the third time this season and the first time since Week 6. While Nick Foles amassed 272 passing yards last week, the majority of that was on short dump-off routes as these Titans cornerbacks did a great job covering the outside receivers. Adoree Jackson, in particular, had a nice bounceback game as he has been on and off throughout the season. Jackson is expected to shadow T.Y. Hilton, which should make for a pretty even matchup. Safety Kevin Byard also continues to have an impressive season, however, this secondary still has a glaring weakness in Leshaun Sims at cornerback Sims has played very poorly in relief of Malcolm Butler and will offer an advantage in coverage to Zach Pascal. The Titans pass rush may be less effective this week due to the season-ending injury to Cameron Wake. Wake had accounted for just 2.5 sacks, but he was the most reliable edge rusher on this line and will be a veteran presence this team will sorely miss--especially against a top-tier Colts offensive line.

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.3)11 (-1.3)13 (-1.0)11 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.4)8 (-2.4)9 (-2.0)7 (-2.9)
9Mason Rudolph6326351911135013.
10Ryan Fitzpatrick63213316901423115.815.814.114.1
11Nick Foles6333472962100021.821.818.818.8
12Deshaun Watson59193029821310022.922.919.919.9

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5700)

10vs KC52131918120337020.820.818.919.9
12vs JAX531418259207402373732.433.4
13PROJ-Dodds19302291.30.94200.218.918.918.9 (H=44)18.9 (H=57)
13PROJ-Tremblay19302231.10.95210.2181818.0 (H=40)18.0 (H=52)
13PROJ-Bloom14231791.50.74240.519.719.719.7 (H=47)19.7 (H=61)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.4)8 (-3.8)7 (-4.2)7 (-4.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-8.3)5 (-6.1)2 (-7.5)4 (-7.1)
9Jaylen Samuels40810013137308.321.312.820.3
9Trey Edmunds171273000007.
10Kalen Ballage542043044204.
10Patrick Laird8240221501.
11Leonard Fournette458230773405.712.79.212.7
11Ryquell Armstead14160221301.
12Carlos Hyde291667000006.
12Duke Johnson30522011803.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $7600)

10vs KC3723188222.03031.
12vs JAX4019159211.016029.530.528.032.5
13PROJ-Dodds19950.71.8150.115.817.616.7 (H=30)17.6 (H=37)
13PROJ-Tremblay20890.61.6140.114.516.115.3 (H=26)16.1 (H=32)
13PROJ-Bloom2010611.0110.118.319.318.8 (H=37)19.3 (H=44)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

10vs KC1500000.000000.00.0
12vs JAX8521021.02404.
13PROJ-Dodds31301.71102.44.13.2 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay2801.81302.13.93.0 (H=2)3.9 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom6230.10.0002.92.92.9 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.7)16 (+0.9)18 (+0.9)20 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.4)20 (+3.2)18 (+2.3)20 (+3.6)
9James Washington27446900006.910.98.910.9
9JuJu Smith-Schuster47531600001.
10DeVante Parker631056900006.911.99.411.9
10Allen Hurns59423200003.
11D.J. Chark59158104200022.430.426.433.4
11Chris Conley60865800005.811.88.811.8
12DeAndre Hopkins598694200021.427.424.427.4
12Will Fuller53117140000014.021.017.524.0

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $5300)

10vs KC4941.01700001.
12vs JAX3754.0135100019.523.521.526.5
13PROJ-Dodds3.3540.20006.69.98.3 (H=14)9.9 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.9450.20005.78.67.2 (H=11)8.6 (H=15)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0630.50009.313.311.3 (H=25)13.3 (H=33)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

12vs JAX3932.02900002.
13PROJ-Dodds3.1420.20005.48.57.0 (H=11)8.5 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.7370.20004.97.66.3 (H=9)7.6 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0440.40006.89.88.3 (H=15)9.8 (H=26)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs KC3411.02310008.
12vs JAX1233.0200000253.55.0
13PROJ-Dodds3.2310.20004.37.56.0 (H=8)7.6 (H=17)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.7310.20004.375.7 (H=7)7.1 (H=15)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0250.10003.16.14.7 (H=5)6.2 (H=12)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs KC4211.0200000232.53.0
12vs JAX900.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.3180.10002.43.73.1 (H=3)3.7 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.3190.10002.53.83.2 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Kalif Raymond (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs KC1011.05200005.
12vs JAX1011.01401-500.
13PROJ-Dodds0.91500001.52.42.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.71000201.21.91.6 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.2)19 (+0.3)16 (-0.1)18 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.8)6 (-3.9)6 (-3.8)6 (-4.3)
9Vance McDonald51753019.014.011.514.0
10Mike Gesicki40632802.
11Ben Koyack1611900.
12Jordan Akins28432602.

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs KC4064.0300375.07.0
12vs JAX5000.0000.
13PROJ-Dodds2.2250. (H=4)5.3 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.0230. (H=3)4.9 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0240. (H=6)6.2 (H=14)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs KC1443.03619.612.611.112.6
12vs JAX1600.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.0120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.890. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)

Delanie Walker (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

12vs JAX000.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.0200. (H=3)4.6 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.3)19T (+0.3)18T (+0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.6)26 (+1.6)26 (+2.2) (+0.0)
9Chris Boswell4422141416.016.0
10Jason Sanders3311101013.013.0
11Josh Lambo0111111.01.0
12Kaimi Fairbairn2222888.08.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs KC0034333.03.0
12vs JAX0066666.06.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-0.7)12T (-0.7)22T (-1.0)22T (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+1.1)22T (+1.1)22 (+1.8)22 (+1.8)
9Pittsburgh Steelers2432851211191919.019.0
10Miami Dolphins12300130007711.011.0
11Jacksonville Jaguars3338931100776.06.0
12Houston Texans1729610000112.02.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2900)

10vs KC32.0053020101161611.011.0
12vs JAX20.0036930100556.06.0
13PROJ-Dodds22.703522. (H=15)7.5 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay23.003642.310.700. (H=20)8.6 (H=28)

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.1)15 (-0.2)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.0)24 (+1.9)25 (+2.2)25 (+2.3)
9Kyle Allen711732232213-4018.218.215.915.9
10Patrick Mahomes8236504463000034.334.329.832.8
12Nick Foles86324827200320015.615.614.914.9

Jacoby Brissett (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5900)

11vs JAX66152414811212117.617.616.116.1
12@ HOU67162512900420114.514.513.213.2
13PROJ-Dodds22342291.50.63100.2191919.0 (H=45)19.0 (H=55)
13PROJ-Tremblay23362461.514130.219.819.819.8 (H=48)19.8 (H=59)
13PROJ-Bloom20291871.40.53140.2171717.0 (H=37)17.0 (H=45)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.4)21 (+1.7)20 (+1.0)21 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+7.5)28 (+8.8)28 (+7.7)28 (+8.8)
9Christian McCaffrey612414623320134.637.636.140.6
9Reggie Bonnafon836011701.
10Damien Williams60197705532010.915.911.414.9
10Darrel Williams1726011901.
12Leonard Fournette822497212962027.936.932.436.9
12Tyler Ervin000000000.

Jonathan Williams (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5300)

10vs MIA721000.0000.
11vs JAX3113116011.031014.715.715.218.7
12@ HOU4526104133.017018.121.119.624.1
13PROJ-Dodds15680.41.713010.512.211.4 (H=19)12.2 (H=28)
13PROJ-Tremblay16690.41.915010.812.711.8 (H=21)12.7 (H=30)
13PROJ-Bloom17660.52.012010.812.811.8 (H=21)12.8 (H=31)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4200)

10vs MIA30314074.03004.
11vs JAX24311143.02409.512.511.012.5
12@ HOU22951032.01006.
13PROJ-Dodds5210.12.823057.86.4 (H=9)7.8 (H=16)
13PROJ-Tremblay6230.11.91504.46.35.4 (H=6)6.3 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom7290.24.0330.181210.0 (H=19)12.0 (H=35)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs MIA7320000.000222.02.0
11vs JAX000000.000000.00.0
12@ HOU100000.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds4210.10.7603.343.7 (H=4)4.0 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay2110.11.31002.743.4 (H=3)4.0 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom270.10.0001.31.31.3 (H=0)1.3 (H=0)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.2)18T (+1.2)19 (+1.0)17 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+6.8)30 (+11.7)29 (+9.3)30 (+13.0)
9Curtis Samuel5363641110013.416.414.916.4
9D.J. Moore67107101000010.117.113.620.1
10Tyreek Hill691911157113022.033.027.536.0
10Mecole Hardman181163100012.313.312.813.3
12Dede Westbrook74986900006.914.910.914.9
12Chris Conley65944900004.

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6200)

11vs JAX000.000000000.00.0
12@ HOU2563.01800001.
13PROJ-Dodds5.3650.50009.514.812.2 (H=21)14.8 (H=34)
13PROJ-Tremblay6.1750.500010.516.613.6 (H=26)16.6 (H=41)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0560.50008.613.611.1 (H=18)13.6 (H=29)

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4700)

10vs MIA6972.02600002.
11vs JAX6662.01700001.
12@ HOU5910.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.3330.20004.56.85.7 (H=7)6.8 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.5360.20305.17.66.4 (H=9)7.6 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0190.20003.15.14.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=7)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3400)

10vs MIA3542.03100003.
11vs JAX3221.011011802.
12@ HOU4111.01200001.
13PROJ-Dodds1.5180.10002.43.93.2 (H=2)4.0 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.2160.10002.23.42.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0220.20003.45.44.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=11)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.6)21 (+0.6)22 (+0.6)21 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.3)18 (-0.2)17 (-0.2)18 (-0.3)
9Greg Olsen65534004.
10Travis Kelce787775113.520.517.020.5
12Nick OLeary45443603.

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs MIA4243.044110.413.411.913.4
11vs JAX4400.000000.00.0
12@ HOU4643.02802.
13PROJ-Dodds4.1420.3610.18.1 (H=14)10.1 (H=33)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.4460.36.410.88.6 (H=16)10.8 (H=37)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0350. (H=12)9.3 (H=28)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs MIA2210.000000.00.0
11vs JAX2300.000000.00.0
12@ HOU2000.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.5170. (H=3)3.8 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.8190. (H=4)4.3 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.1)7 (-1.1)8T (-0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+2.0)27T (+2.0)28 (+3.0) (+0.0)
9Joey Slye1234666.06.0
10Harrison Butker4523141416.016.0
12Josh Lambo2200669.09.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs MIA2201666.06.0
11vs JAX1144777.07.0
12@ HOU1122555.05.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.6)14T (-0.6)14 (-0.2)14 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.4)14 (-0.4)9 (-2.1)9 (-2.1)
9Carolina Panthers2043142100101011.011.0
10Kansas City Chiefs3537140100665.05.0
12Jacksonville Jaguars4247110200551.01.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $3100)

10vs MIA16.0022931100778.08.0
11vs JAX13.0030821000448.08.0
12@ HOU20.0039611000334.04.0
13PROJ-Dodds20.503642. (H=24)9.9 (H=34)
13PROJ-Tremblay20.503421.90.90.700. (H=22)9.3 (H=30)