Matchup Analysis: New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jets 23, Bengals 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense18.0 (-4.4) (27)74 (-37) (30)189 (-46) (31)
Bengals Defense26.5 (+4.2) (27)166 (+54) (32)251 (+15) (21)

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense14.3 (-8.1) (31)81 (-30) (28)222 (-13) (20)
Jets Defense23.5 (+1.1) (20)78 (-33) (1)243 (+7) (19)

Jets Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

At this point, Le’Veon Bell’s weekly rushing lines have gone well past disappointing and into devastating. He dominates the Jets backfield () and has taken 12+ carries in 10 of 11 games. And yet, he hasn’t topped 70 yards in a single one - he’s been held below 50 in 6 of them - while averaging a weak 3.2 yards along the way. One of the era’s most heavily-used backs, he was already showing a dip with the Steelers in 2017. Now running behind a bottom-tier line, and handcuffed to a shaky passing game, Bell has taken quite a drop-off in situation. Up front, the Jets are down their center and both guards from Opening Day and simply aren’t built to grade roads (currently graded C+ in run-blocking by Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti). Bell carries quite a track record, but isn’t in the boat he once was. His Week 13 matchup couldn’t be better, but he hasn’t been nearly productive enough to trust in fantasy.

The Bengals’ nightmarish 2018 hasn’t stopped at their run game, which has faced more attempts and allowed more ground yards than anyone. Thanks to Steelers rookie plodder Benny Snell last Sunday, they’ve now allowed a runner to rack up 98+ yards in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. There are few units in football more in need of a talent infusion. Their four-man front is generally solid, with Andrew Billings an above-average nose and Geno Atkins still a dynamic playmaker. But behind them, linebackers Nick Vigil and Germaine Pratt both rank among the league’s weakest run-stoppers, and there’s little rotational depth to speak of. Safeties Jessie Bates and Shawn Williams provide little help, and opposing runners tend to find ample room to maneuver. This may be Le’Veon Bell’s best get-right opportunity thus far.

Jets Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Young Sam Darnold’s rollercoaster career continues. Darnold had been mostly horrendous from Weeks 7-9 (all Jets losses), managing just 5.6 yards per attempt with 8 interceptions. But since then, he’s climbed out of those depths by roasting a trio of bad pass defenses, posting 9.4 and 7 touchdowns, with just a single pick. He’s topped 290 yards in 2 straight, including 315 (on 20 of 29 passing) in last Sunday’s big win. Darnold is indeed capable of making things happen with playmakers Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, and Le’Veon Bell, if only in spurts. The lesson seems to be that, when facing a great matchup with a shoddy defense, Darnold boasts a solid fantasy ceiling. Last week, both Anderson and No. 4 wideout Braxton Berrios shook loose for long receptions. Even Bell got in on the downfield fun, making a fantastic 23-yard circus catch on an early wheel route. This remains a shaky passing attack, of course, always capable of imploding into a mess of misfires and turnovers. But it projects well in Week 13 at least, squaring off with yet another terrible pass defense.

Few pass defenses make for better fantasy matchups than that of these Bengals. Even in low-volume games against shaky opponents, they give up enough big-play efficiency to make for strong fantasy lines. Over the past 2 weeks, they’ve allowed 8.8 yards per attempt to Derek Carr, Mason Rudolph, and Devlin Hodges. The trio of top cornerbacks - William Jackson, Darqueze Dennard, and B.W. Webb - have been victimized downfield all season. Webb, who plays the slot, has been particularly burnable. He was bullied for a long touchdown catch last week and has been the top culprit in a bevy of big games from the slot. With very little pass rush up front, a lot is asked of the porous secondary, and it just hasn’t responded. Despite all of the early-round pedigrees here, this remains one of fantasy’s most inviting matchups.

Bengals Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Bengals run game remains stuck in neutral. More accurately, it’s well below any neutral range, sitting 25th in yards per rush and 28th per game. Of course, Joe Mixon can hardly be blamed much. With the Cincinnati offense so punchless, the dynamic Mixon spends most of his time smashing into stacked defensive fronts. He runs behind one of the league’s weakest lines, as well. Top blocker Cordy Glenn has finally returned to the lineup, but he’s not nearly enough on his own. From left guard across to right tackle, the Bengals trot out underachieving blockers at every spot. Mixon is an electric runner; it’s exciting to imagine him in one of football’s better offenses. Unfortunately, this situation puts a hard cap on his upside and makes him a volume-dependent fantasy play. There’s simply not enough support for him here - and very little touchdown opportunity.

Week in, week out, the Jets’ smothering run defense continues to stifle strong attacks. New coordinator Gregg Williams always presides over a stout run unit, and this one is no exception. Through 11 weeks, they lead the league in both per-carry and per-game allowances, Only 2 runners - Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette - have topped 70 in this matchup, and they averaged just 3.9 in the process. Last Sunday, Raiders super-rookie Josh Jacobs managed just 34 on his 10 attempts. The linebackers have actually struggled quite a bit in traffic, but the Jets are getting great work from their up-front rotation, particularly rookies Quinnen Williams and Foley Fatukasi. They’re controlling the trenches and making life easier on the second level, while fantastic young safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye provide help in the box. The Bengals’ shoddy run game faces an uphill battle every week, but this is their stingiest test yet. This has the look of Week 13’s most glaring mismatch.

Bengals Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jets defense.

At this point, it seems clear that Ryan Finley’s ascension into the lineup was far more about benching Andy Dalton to make a point. Finley was woefully unprepared for the NFL, completing just 47% of his throws for an anemic 4.6 yards per attempt. He was also a turnover machine, with two interceptions and three lost fumbles. Ultimately, coach Zac Taylor has little choice but to re-insert Dalton into the lineup, though the veteran doesn’t project to move mountains. He’ll still struggle to find a clean pocket - the Cincinnati line remains porous even with Cordy Glenn back - and he’s averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt of his own. The whole situation makes productivity tough for his receivers; only slot man Tyler Boyd has a consistent, defined role. For his part, Boyd was phemomenal last week, winning impressively on a pair of jump balls en route to 101 yards and a touchdown. Beyond him, Auden Tate and Alex Erickson are intriguing playmakers who simply don’t see enough quality opportunity to produce. They’ve each posted a big game or two, yet last week they turned 11 targets into just 53 yards. Even in a strong matchup, only Boyd can even be considered for fantasy purposes.

Slowly but surely, the Jets’ youth movement in pass defense is paying dividends. It’s been a wholly beatable unit for quite some time, but has dominated two shaky passing games over the past two weeks. Last Sunday, they chased Derek Carr out of a blowout win; the Raiders’ Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller produced just five receptions. Addition by subtraction can be a real thing, and the Jets’ turnaround has coincided with injuries to ineffective starting cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts. Rookie fill-in Blessuan Austin has been better than either over the past two weeks, while slot cornerback Brian Poole remains one of the league’s stingiest. And on the back end, playmakers Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye make for the NFL’s best safety duo. Still, it has to be pointed out that this unit has failed most of its tests against strong passers. They’ll need to shut down better names than Carr and Dwayne Haskins to build a real reputation. Luckily for them, Andy Dalton and toothless Bengals are next on the docket. It’s fair to expect at least one more strong showing.

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.7)26 (+3.7)29 (+4.4)26 (+3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.9)29 (+3.9)29 (+4.2)29 (+3.3)
10Lamar Jackson36151722330765135.735.733.433.4
11Derek Carr7025292921151123.723.720.820.8
12Devlin Hodges345111181031010.

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6100)

10vs NYG651930230103251242421.721.7
11@ WAS711930293412-3029.429.426.426.4
12vs OAK59202931520416131.431.428.231.2
13PROJ-Dodds20322511.60.93100.220.320.320.3 (H=48)20.3 (H=60)
13PROJ-Tremblay19312251.41250.116.916.916.9 (H=35)16.9 (H=43)
13PROJ-Bloom203123720.93130.221.521.521.5 (H=53)21.5 (H=66)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.6)29 (+4.2)27 (+4.1)27 (+4.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-3.0)8 (-5.0)9 (-4.5)8 (-5.0)
10Mark Ingram23934100009.
10Gus Edwards11417000001.
11Josh Jacobs452311203312012.415.411.917.4
11DeAndre Washington92-10221401.
12Benny Snell3621980115010.311.310.811.3
12Kerrith Whyte7643000004.

LeVeon Bell (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $7200)

10vs NYG481834144.034012.816.814.816.8
11@ WAS391859122.033015.
12vs OAK361249055.059010.815.813.315.8
13PROJ-Dodds16630.43.9350.213.417.315.4 (H=31)17.3 (H=38)
13PROJ-Tremblay12490.32.8220.19.512.310.9 (H=17)12.3 (H=21)
13PROJ-Bloom18700.54.0410.215.319.317.3 (H=38)19.3 (H=46)

Bilal Powell (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

10vs NYG15715000.0001.
11@ WAS16742021.0504.
12vs OAK15515021.050232.53.0
13PROJ-Dodds5230.10.770. (H=5)4.9 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay5220.11.5130. (H=7)6.2 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom4150.10.0002.12.12.1 (H=1)2.1 (H=1)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4400)

10vs NYG500000.000000.00.0
11@ WAS15211010.0001.
12vs OAK1252021.02102.
13PROJ-Dodds180.10.8702.12.92.5 (H=2)2.9 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay3130.11.1902.83.93.4 (H=3)3.9 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom3901.0501.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.5)10 (-2.7)11 (-1.3)10 (-2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-3.1)8 (-6.2)9 (-4.6)7 (-7.2)
10Marquise Brown194480100014.
10Willie Snead22321200001.
11Tyrell Williams51448200008.
11Hunter Renfrow31656600006.611.69.111.6
12James Washington587398100015.818.817.318.8
12Deon Cain10113500003.

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5600)

10vs NYG4765.081100014.119.116.619.1
11@ WAS4185.076100013.618.616.118.6
12vs OAK4142.01800001.
13PROJ-Dodds4.7580.30007.612.310.0 (H=17)12.3 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.1490.30006.710.88.8 (H=13)10.8 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0630.50009.314.311.8 (H=22)14.3 (H=35)

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4800)

10vs NYG5431.01100001.
11@ WAS5931.0610006.
12vs OAK5254.086100014.618.616.618.6
13PROJ-Dodds3.0510.30006.99.98.4 (H=13)9.9 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.8420.300068.87.4 (H=10)8.8 (H=18)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0610.50009.113.111.1 (H=21)13.1 (H=35)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3600)

10vs NYG4896.08400008.414.411.414.4
11@ WAS4654.04400004.
12vs OAK4432.02200002.
13PROJ-Dodds3.5470.20005.99.47.7 (H=13)9.4 (H=26)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.7500.30006.810.58.7 (H=16)10.5 (H=32)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0330.30005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=20)

Vyncint Smith (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NYG1710.000000000.00.0
11@ WAS2110.00000000-2.0-1.0
12vs OAK1711.02200002.
13PROJ-Dodds0.8110.10001.72.52.1 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.9120.102022.92.5 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.4)15 (-0.1)17 (-0.1)15 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+6.3)32 (+8.1)32 (+7.2)32 (+8.0)
10Mark Andrews248653217.323.320.323.3
11Darren Waller66757807.612.610.112.6
12Vance McDonald6311100.

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4300)

10vs NYG4211.0-20-
11@ WAS6055.0109116.921.919.424.9
12vs OAK5533.01317.310.38.810.3
13PROJ-Dodds3.0330. (H=9)8.1 (H=17)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.3250. (H=6)6.6 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0340. (H=12)9.4 (H=22)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.1)30 (+2.1)29 (+1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.7)22 (+0.7)20 (+0.3) (+0.0)
10Justin Tucker0077777.07.0
11Daniel Carlson1122555.05.0
12Chris Boswell3311101011.011.0

Sam Ficken (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs NYG2344101012.012.0
11@ WAS0145444.04.0
12vs OAK2344101010.010.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.0)29 (+3.0)29 (+4.3)29 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.0)31 (+7.0)32 (+8.6)32 (+8.6)
10Baltimore Ravens1330721202262624.024.0
11Oakland Raiders10246511009913.013.0
12Pittsburgh Steelers10244402008812.012.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

10vs NYG27.0028160201222216.016.0
11@ WAS17.0022561000889.09.0
12vs OAK3.0020811101111118.018.0
13PROJ-Dodds18.903202.810.800.510.910.910.9 (H=25)10.9 (H=33)
13PROJ-Tremblay18.753272.310.900.510.610.610.6 (H=24)10.6 (H=32)

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.4)18 (+0.4)17 (+0.2)18 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.7)15 (+0.6)18 (+1.0)20 (+1.3)
9Ryan Fitzpatrick6924362883052026.626.623.723.7
10Daniel Jones71264030840320033.433.430.334.3
11Dwayne Haskins6819352142145018.
12Derek Carr4315271270111106.

Andy Dalton (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4700)

11@ OAK000000000000.00.0
12vs PIT000000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds21342331.31270.217.717.717.7 (H=48)17.7 (H=61)
13PROJ-Tremblay21352431.21280.2181818.0 (H=49)18.0 (H=63)
13PROJ-Bloom19312171.30.8250.116.316.316.3 (H=41)16.3 (H=53)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.1)12 (-0.9)11 (-1.2)11 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.8)1 (-8.9)1 (-8.7)1 (-9.6)
9Mark Walton5112290431204.
9Kalen Ballage21719010001.
10Saquon Barkley591310553003.
10Wayne Gallman1212021300.
11Derrius Guice2072402145112.913.913.413.9
11Adrian Peterson17925022503.
12Jalen Richard23240764705.
12Josh Jacobs231034011203.

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5800)

10vs BAL5730114032.037015.
11@ OAK371586131.017016.317.316.817.3
12vs PIT401879000.0007.
13PROJ-Dodds17650.42.0160.211.713.712.7 (H=25)13.7 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay18610.41.9140.110.512.411.5 (H=21)12.4 (H=27)
13PROJ-Bloom18760.32.0150. (H=26)14.1 (H=33)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4100)

10vs BAL1848011.0000.81.8-0.70.8
11@ OAK33330031.01604.
12vs PIT211-1033.0310364.56.0
13PROJ-Dodds4110.12.21903.65.84.7 (H=6)5.8 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay3110.12.11603.35.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom2503.0250364.5 (H=5)6.0 (H=10)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.9)27 (+4.0)26 (+3.6)25 (+4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+4.0)23 (+4.7)25 (+4.9)25 (+5.2)
9Preston Williams519572200019.224.221.724.2
9DeVante Parker576457100011.715.713.715.7
10Darius Slayton671410121200024.
10Golden Tate688495200021.525.521.524.5
11Terry McLaurin62436900006.
11Kelvin Harmon63655300005.310.37.810.3
12Hunter Renfrow25533100003.
12Tyrell Williams45621800001.

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5500)

10vs BAL6686.06200006.
11@ OAK6131.0001100121.52.0
12vs PIT5895.0101100016.121.116.623.1
13PROJ-Dodds5.5650.30008.313.811.1 (H=21)13.8 (H=34)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.3630.30108.213.510.9 (H=20)13.5 (H=32)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0640.40008.813.811.3 (H=22)13.8 (H=34)

Auden Tate (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs BAL7563.03600003.
11@ OAK4864.05600005.
12vs PIT5031.0100000121.52.0
13PROJ-Dodds3.9510.20006.310.28.3 (H=15)10.2 (H=29)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.9540.20006.610.58.6 (H=15)10.5 (H=30)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0540.30007.211.29.2 (H=17)11.2 (H=34)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4000)

10vs BAL3820.00011301.
11@ OAK4751.000000010.51.0
12vs PIT4682.04300004.
13PROJ-Dodds3.0400.21305.58.57.1 (H=12)8.6 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.4460.20306.19.57.9 (H=15)9.6 (H=25)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0440.20005.68.67.2 (H=12)8.7 (H=21)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.1)4 (-3.0)4 (-2.5)4 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.1)11 (-1.7)10 (-1.4)11 (-1.8)
9Mike Gesicki42669509.515.512.515.5
10Rhett Ellison35334204.
11Jeremy Sprinkle50321617.
12Darren Waller53634104.

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2800)

10vs BAL2342.02018109.010.0
11@ OAK2343.02102.
12vs PIT2211.0700.
13PROJ-Dodds2.6220.23.464.7 (H=6)6.0 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.6230. (H=6)6.1 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=4)4.7 (H=10)

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs BAL4200.000000.00.0
11@ OAK3852.0500.
12vs PIT3610.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.2120.11.832.4 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.2120.11.832.4 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-0.3)12T (-0.3)15T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.4)1 (-3.4)1T (-3.6) (+0.0)
9Jason Sanders1233666.06.0
10Aldrick Rosas0012111.01.0
11Dustin Hopkins1200334.04.0
12Daniel Carlson1200334.04.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs BAL2211778.08.0
11@ OAK1211445.05.0
12vs PIT1111444.04.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.6)27 (+2.6)31 (+4.5)31 (+4.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.9)8 (-2.9)6 (-3.7)6 (-3.7)
9Miami Dolphins1832131010778.08.0
10New York Giants3429420000221.01.0
11Washington Redskins3440021100665.05.0
12Oakland Raiders3440110100332.02.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2800)

10vs BAL49.003791100033-1.0-1.0
11@ OAK17.0038631100778.08.0
12vs PIT16.0033931000556.06.0
13PROJ-Dodds21.803632. (H=23)8.5 (H=29)
13PROJ-Tremblay22.25331210.700. (H=23)8.5 (H=29)