Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 24, Texans 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense27.3 (+4.9) (5)92 (-19) (23)261 (+25) (8)
Texans Defense22.6 (+0.2) (17)109 (-2) (17)259 (+23) (25)

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense24.1 (+1.7) (10)137 (+25) (7)245 (+9) (12)
Patriots Defense10.6 (-11.8) (1)98 (-13) (9)158 (-77) (2)

Patriots Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Sony Michel in a tough matchup against the Cowboys performed admirably rushing for 85 yards on 20 carries last week. Michel was coming off of several games in which he struggled and the volume was declining, so it was good to see the Patriots commit back to their second-year running back and attempt to establish the run in poor weather conditions. The good news for the Patriots is that their offensive line is starting to come together as Isaiah Wynn is back at left tackle, Shaq Mason is starting to play better, and Marcus Cannonís play is improving at right tackle. This should greatly help Michel and the running game over the rest of the season as the Patriots desperately need a balanced approach to help Tom Brady and the passing game.

The Texans run defense is starting to fall apart over the last two weeks after being dominant for most of the season. Having just allowed two running backs to rush for more than 66 yards (Kamara and McCaffrey), and no running back to rush for over 100 yards, this defense has now allowed back-to-back 100-yard games to the likes of Gus Edwards and Jonathan Williams. So what has changed? Opponents are running right at Angelo Blackson who is filling in for the injured J.J. Watt and has been a tremendous downgrade to this defensive line and a weak link that the Texans will need to figure out. The Texans still have two good linebackers in Zach Cunningham and Benardrick McKinney, but will need the defensive line to play better to get back to their dominant ways.

Patriots Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

For the second week in a row, Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game seemed to struggle to consistently move the ball. Both games consisted of horrible weather in what became sloppy games. If there is good news, the good news is that the Patriots won both of those games, and were without Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett both of whom were injured during the Philadelphia game. Sanu and Dorsett look like they will be returning this week to finally give the Patriots a full complement of receivers as rookie NíKeal Harry also played for the first time last week catching a touchdown in his first career game. This is a week that is critical for the Patriots as their offensive line is finally starting to come together with Isaiah Wynn back, and they are as healthy as they have been all season.

The Texans secondary has been a weak spot on this team for the majority of the season as while they have done a good job shutting down some of the leagueís weaker units. Whenever they play an average or above-average passing attack they have struggled. In five of their last six games, the Texans have allowed 3 passing touchdowns or more to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed five 300+ yard passers on the season. The acquisition of Gareon Conley has not helped nearly as much as the Texans hoped and they went out and signed Vernon Hargreaves who was cut by the Buccaneers for his poor play which tells you a lot if the worst passing defense in football cuts a player for poor performance and lack of hustle.

Texans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

What Carlos Hyde has done this season after being with four organizations in less than a year is nothing more than spectacular. Hyde has run hard behind an offensive line in the bottom-third in the NFL according to Matt Bitonti and for the most part, has been incredibly consistent as he has run for 60 yards or more in six of his last seven games. The one benefit this has had for the Texans is that it has limited the need for Deshaun Watson to have to run as much as he was early on in the season as he has only run the ball 13 times over the last three weeks. The offensive line continues to be an issue for the Texans as outside of Laremy Tunsil, the Texans rookies Tytus Howard at right tackle and Max Scharping at left guard both have struggled on the season.

The Patriots continue to be a mystery when it comes to opposing teams game-planning for them, as opponents seemingly have success, but abandon the run. Opposing running backs are averaging 4.3 yards-per-carry and since Week 7 are allowing 5.1 yards-per-carry which would be amongst the worst in the NFL. The Patriots have now allowed a running back to rush for 70 yards or more in four of the last five games. This is a defense that runs a base Dime defense which is designed to get a lead and force you to throw against them. Where they have struggled over the last five games is that they have not been getting out to the lead that they were earlier in the season. The good news for the Patriots is that Patrick Chung is getting healthier after having been injured in Week 9 and missing Week 10. Chung is a vital part of this rushing defense as he can play the Dime linebacker as well as anyone in the league. This is a defense that will improve, but in close games which this is expected to be, will not be a shut-down defense. Interestingly, the Patriots have only allowed one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs as when they sell out to stop the run by bringing in Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton, and Elandon Roberts, they are one of the best at doing so.

Texans Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Consistency has been key for the Texans passing offense for most of the season. In the Texans seven wins this season they have averaged 285 yards passing compared to just 226 yards passing in their losses. The good news for the Texans is that they are starting to get healthy which is something that they have struggled with for most of the season as they got Will Fuller back last week who dominated Indianapolis catching 7 passes for 140 yards. Fuller adds a different level as his presence helps the entire offense as it opens up more space for DeAndre Hopkins and forces the defense to be honest with two receivers rather than focus in on just one.

At this point, New Englandís pass defense is on a historic pace. Since Week 1 when Ben Roethlisberger had a lot of garbage time production in a blow-out, this defense has allowed just 171 yards passing per game and has not allowed a quarterback to throw for over 212 yards. This is a unit that is made up of a tremendous secondary. The Patriots look like they will get Jason McCourty back this week after missing last week with a hamstring injury which will be a tremendous upgrade to the secondary that once again makes it a dominant unit as Jason McCourty, Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, and Duron Harmon make up one of the best secondaries in a long time.

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.5)29 (+4.5)26 (+3.2)28 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.8)23 (+1.8)17 (+1.0)22 (+1.7)
9Gardner Minshew67274730902434016.916.99.814.8
11Lamar Jackson61172422240986035.735.733.533.5
12Jacoby Brissett67162512900420114.514.513.213.2

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6100)

11@ PHI742647216001-1010.710.78.58.5
12vs DAL701737190102-3013.213.211.311.3
13PROJ-Dodds25382611.60.8120.119.519.519.5 (H=44)19.5 (H=56)
13PROJ-Tremblay25402651.51230. (H=43)19.2 (H=54)
13PROJ-Bloom25342451.91220.119.619.619.6 (H=44)19.6 (H=56)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.5)22 (+2.3)22 (+1.6)22 (+2.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+8.0)31 (+9.0)30 (+8.7)31 (+10.3)
9Leonard Fournette5611400653207.212.29.712.2
9Ryquell Armstead9000556506.511.59.011.5
11Mark Ingram33134804337220.523.522.023.5
11Gus Edwards2981121000017.
12Jonathan Williams452610413317018.121.119.624.1
12Nyheim Hines229510321006.

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4900)

11@ PHI221033042.01104.
12vs DAL362085000.0008.
13PROJ-Dodds16620.51.0709.910.910.4 (H=17)10.9 (H=25)
13PROJ-Tremblay16630.51.511010.411.911.2 (H=19)11.9 (H=29)
13PROJ-Bloom15620.51.0609.810.810.3 (H=17)10.8 (H=25)

James White (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5200)

11@ PHI32520074.01603.
12vs DAL2125031.0-60-
13PROJ-Dodds4170.14.5350.16.410.98.7 (H=14)10.9 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay4160.13.8300. (H=11)9.6 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom4190.15.0330.37.612.610.1 (H=18)12.6 (H=30)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3400)

11@ PHI21514032.03404.
12vs DAL1523052.01401.
13PROJ-Dodds5160.12.5210. (H=8)7.4 (H=18)
13PROJ-Tremblay4160.13.0240. (H=9)8.2 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom3100.12.0120. (H=4)5.4 (H=10)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.7)20 (+1.6)20 (+1.8)18 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-11.3)3 (-16.1)3 (-13.7)3 (-17.1)
9Keelan Cole55658000008.013.010.513.0
9Chris Conley59723200003.
11Seth Roberts46111510007.
11Marquise Brown38422300002.
12T.Y. Hilton25631800001.
12Chester Rogers41111200001.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $7500)

11@ PHI66105.053000010.115.112.414.9
12vs DAL68128.09300009.317.313.317.3
13PROJ-Dodds6.6730.513010.617.213.9 (H=25)17.2 (H=36)
13PROJ-Tremblay6.5740.513010.717.214.0 (H=25)17.2 (H=36)
13PROJ-Bloom7.0780.400010.217.213.7 (H=24)17.2 (H=36)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5200)

11@ PHI4142.0401801.
12vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.9340.20004.67.56.1 (H=7)7.5 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.1370.31305.88.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3300)

11@ PHI1921.0700000.
12vs DAL5494.07400007.411.49.411.4
13PROJ-Dodds2.2300.20004.26.45.3 (H=7)6.4 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.1150.10002.13.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0340.20004.67.66.1 (H=8)7.6 (H=20)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4300)

11@ PHI3453.03310009.312.310.812.3
12vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.2300.20004.26.45.3 (H=6)6.4 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.1280.200046.15.1 (H=6)6.1 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0440.50007.410.48.9 (H=16)10.4 (H=26)

NKeal Harry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ PHI3243.01800001.
12vs DAL5741.0101000787.58.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.2290.20004.16.35.2 (H=6)6.3 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.7230.10002.94.63.8 (H=3)4.6 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0150.20002.74.73.7 (H=3)4.7 (H=7)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.7)14 (-0.5)14 (-0.4)14 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.0)27 (+3.8)26 (+3.0)25 (+3.7)
9Seth DeValve34544104.
11Mark Andrews254475113.517.515.517.5
12Eric Ebron29544404.

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $2900)

11@ PHI5943.05205.
12vs DAL4910.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.8200. (H=3)4.4 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.3140.123.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0230. (H=5)5.5 (H=13)

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ PHI2122.0300.
12vs DAL3411.0500.
13PROJ-Dodds1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.890. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.4)21 (+0.4)24 (+0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.3)14 (-0.7) (+0.0)
9Josh Lambo1100333.03.0
11Justin Tucker2355111112.012.0
12Adam Vinatieri1122555.05.0

Nick Folk (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ PHI3300999.09.0
12vs DAL2411779.09.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.3)9 (-1.3)18T (-0.9)18T (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.7)12 (-1.7)18 (+0.3)18 (+0.3)
9Jacksonville Jaguars2641010100335.05.0
11Baltimore Ravens723271100111115.015.0
12Indianapolis Colts2039611000334.04.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

11@ PHI10.00255501007711.011.0
12vs DAL9.0032101000228.08.0
13PROJ-Dodds20.103612. (H=20)9.5 (H=30)
13PROJ-Tremblay20.753742.20.90.700. (H=17)8.8 (H=27)

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.8)1 (-8.8)1 (-8.1)1 (-9.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.9)9 (-1.9)10 (-1.7)9 (-2.3)
9Lamar Jackson701723163101661230.330.328.628.6
11Carson Wentz75204021410317016.416.412.313.3
12Dak Prescott6419332120114010.

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6300)

11@ BAL5718291690131208.
12vs IND59193029821310022.922.919.919.9
13PROJ-Dodds21332391.50.95270.321.621.621.6 (H=53)21.6 (H=65)
13PROJ-Tremblay22342531.40.95250.321.621.621.6 (H=53)21.6 (H=65)
13PROJ-Bloom19322141.617380.522.922.922.9 (H=58)22.9 (H=71)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.2)1 (-8.4)1 (-8.2)1 (-8.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.6)10 (-4.3)11 (-3.9)10 (-4.3)
9Mark Ingram311511503229014.416.413.418.4
9Gus Edwards28727100008.
11Miles Sanders641138042904.
11Boston Scott14726000002.
12Ezekiel Elliott56218604440012.616.614.616.6
12Tony Pollard12419043902.

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

11@ BAL21965110.00012.512.512.512.5
12vs IND291667000.0006.
13PROJ-Dodds16680.30.5308.99.49.2 (H=15)9.4 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay15680.30.5308.99.49.2 (H=15)9.4 (H=21)
13PROJ-Bloom13490.40.0007.37.37.3 (H=10)7.3 (H=13)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

11@ BAL36640022.0404.
12vs IND30522011.080343.54.0
13PROJ-Dodds4220.12.8240. (H=11)8.6 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay5250.12.8220. (H=11)8.7 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom5260.23.0240.27.410.48.9 (H=16)10.4 (H=31)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-9.6)1 (-11.7)1 (-10.9)1 (-12.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-12.3)1 (-17.7)2 (-15.0)1 (-18.8)
9Marquise Brown40434800004.
9Willie Snead42221500001.
11Nelson Agholor66944000004.
11J.J. Arcega-Whiteside19112900002.
12Randall Cobb29748600008.612.610.612.6
12Michael Gallup63645500005.

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $7600)

11@ BAL57127.080000081511.515.0
12vs IND5986.094200021.427.424.427.4
13PROJ-Dodds6.5720.40009.616.112.9 (H=20)16.1 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay6.5700.40009.415.912.7 (H=19)15.9 (H=31)
13PROJ-Bloom6.0710.500010.116.113.1 (H=20)16.1 (H=32)

Will Fuller (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5400)

11@ BAL000.000000000.00.0
12vs IND53117.01400000142117.524.0
13PROJ-Dodds4.4640.30008.212.610.4 (H=17)12.6 (H=29)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.8660.30008.413.210.8 (H=18)13.2 (H=32)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0700.5000101512.5 (H=24)15.0 (H=40)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

11@ BAL6074.02700002.
12vs IND3721.0600000.
13PROJ-Dodds2.4320.10003.86.25.0 (H=6)6.2 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.2310.10003.75.94.8 (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0250.20003.75.74.7 (H=5)5.7 (H=11)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-1.7)6 (-2.5)7 (-2.1)6 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.6)30 (+7.1)29 (+5.4)29 (+7.0)
9Nick Boyle59552718.713.711.213.7
11Dallas Goedert61633619.612.611.112.6
12Blake Jarwin29431701.

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ BAL4231.01801.
12vs IND5221.02402.
13PROJ-Dodds2.1230. (H=5)5.6 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.3240. (H=6)5.9 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2700)

11@ BAL3621.01501.
12vs IND2843.02602.
13PROJ-Dodds2.1210. (H=4)4.8 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.2240.135.24.1 (H=4)5.2 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0140.1243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=8)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.1)1 (-3.1)17T (-3.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.0)18T (+0.0)17T (-0.0) (+0.0)
9Justin Tucker1145777.07.0
11Jake Elliott1111445.05.0
12Brett Maher34009910.010.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ BAL0111111.01.0
12vs IND2222888.08.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.7)24 (+0.7)9 (-1.5)9 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.4)14T (-0.4)11T (-0.7)11T (-0.7)
9Baltimore Ravens2034221101181813.013.0
11Philadelphia Eagles1729810000112.02.0
12Dallas Cowboys1328220000226.06.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2400)

11@ BAL41.004911000011-3.0-3.0
12vs IND17.0029610000112.02.0
13PROJ-Dodds23.603642.20.70.600. (H=20)7.5 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay23.753712.610.700. (H=26)8.7 (H=35)