Matchup Analysis: Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Vikings 23, Seahawks 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense26.3 (+3.9) (8)142 (+30) (4)236 (+0) (15)
Seahawks Defense23.9 (+1.5) (21)102 (-9) (10)269 (+33) (29)

Seattle Seahawks Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Seahawks Offense26.5 (+4.2) (7)137 (+25) (6)249 (+13) (11)
Vikings Defense18.6 (-3.8) (6)94 (-17) (6)244 (+9) (20)

Vikings Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

Dalvin Cook is one of the few true bell-cows that remains in the modern NFL, and he plays in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses as well. Cook ranks top-four in the NFL in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns this year, and he rarely leaves the field for the Minnesota Vikings, especially in close games. Cook regularly plays close to 80-percent of offensive snaps for Minnesota when the game stays close throughout, and his workload is as reliable as they come. Carrying the ball at least 20 times in 4 out of the last 5 games, Cook's rushing volume this season is nearing twice as much as either of his previous two injury-riddled NFL seasons. Coming in off of the team's bye week, Dalvin Cook should be fresh and ready to carry the load on the ground for Minnesota's top-tier rushing attack.

Seattle's run defense ranks in the top third of the NFL in almost every metric this season, which has forced opposing offenses to turn to the passing game more often than not. The Seahawks have defended the 4th-fewest rushing attempts in the league while allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Seattle's defensive line features a deep rotation of run-stopping linemen both along the interior and on the edge. The biggest strength of the unit, however, is the linebacker position, where Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright grade as top-flight run-stoppers year-in and year-out. Both are intelligent veteran linebackers that rarely miss tackles to round out one of the league's strongest run-stopping front-sevens. In the secondary, Seattle made an in-season trade to acquire Quandre Diggs, a notably-strong run-stopping safety from the Detroit Lions. Diggs missed time due to a hamstring injury, but his return to action should bolster the back-end of one of the league's deepest run defenses. The Minnesota Vikings high-volume rushing attack will be in for a long day at the office, attempting to establish the run against Seattle's talented run defense on Monday night here in Week 13.

Vikings Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

The Minnesota Vikings enter this Week 13 with NFC juggernauts with one of the NFL's lowest-volume but highest-efficiency passing attacks. The identity of the Vikings, as dictated by the team's head coach Mike Zimmer, is to be a run-first football team with a capable passing attack to complement it. After a rough start to the season, Kirk Cousins has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL with a remarkable 9.5 adjusted yards per pass attempt, ranking 2nd-best in the league. When the team is at full-strength, Cousins is equipped with one of the league's best groups of pass-catchers, with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen ranking amongst the top wide receivers in the NFL. Thielen has been hampered by a hamstring injury lately, which has increased the usage rate of Stefon Diggs, along with tight ends Irv Smith, Jr. and Kyle Rudolph, but he is trending upwards in the lead up to this Monday Night Football showdown. Diggs is the team's number-one receiver, even when Thielen is healthy. However, the return of Minnesota's second top-leading pass-catcher will certainly dig into Diggs' opportunity through the air. In all, Minnesota's highly-efficient passing attack that utilizes play-action over 30-percent of the time (the highest mark in the league) should push the limits of Seattle's pass defense in what should be one of the season's best primetime games to date.

So far in 2019, Seattle's pass defense grades as an average unit, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the year as well as the 6.4 net yards per attempt, which ranks 14th in the league. Offenses have primarily had success through the air when they avoid throwing in Shaquil Griffin's direction. In their 11 games, the Seahawks have allowed 6 100-yard receivers and 4 300-yard passers, showing a propensity to give up prolific passing days against some of the league's most-efficient passing attacks. Along the defensive line, the health of Jadeveon Clowney is critical to the team's pass rush. Clowney is one of the league's best pass-rushers, and after missing last week's game against Philadelphia, his status is in question once again this week. Given the extra night of rest playing on Monday night in Week 13, he should be good to go, but if he is not, and the team is forced to play a struggling Ezekiel Ansah more frequently in his place, it could spell trouble. The biggest weakness of this pass defense comes at linebacker, where Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright both struggle against the pass. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, which is almost directly a product of their linebackers' failures in coverage. In the secondary, Shaquil Griffin is an elite cornerback, but he gets little support elsewhere. Expect Kirk Cousins to heavily target his tight ends this week, and avoid Shaquil Griffin's coverage at all costs. Minnesota's highly-efficient passing attack gets neither an increase nor decrease in projected production this weekend against an average Seahawks pass defense.

Seahawks Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

The Seattle Seahawks' rushing attack is one of the league's highest-volume ground-games through the first 11 games of the season, and while they've heavily relied upon Chris Carson as their bell-cow running back, this may be changing in the near future. Carson struggled early in the season with fumbling issues. Fumbling 3 times in the first 3 games of the season, Carson made his way into head coach Pete Carroll's doghouse, playing just 55-percent and 45-percent of offensive snaps in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. Then, once the team's primary backup, Rashaad Penny, went down with an injury, Carroll had no choice but to turn back to Carson as the bell-cow running back. Now, with the fumbling issues popping back up (four fumbles in his last three games,) Carson's job-security is in jeopardy once again. Carson played just 54-percent of offensive snaps last weekend against the Eagles, while Rashaad Penny impressed in 46-percent of offensive snaps. Penny's strong 14-carry, 129-yard, and 1-touchdown performance against one of the league's best run defenses might earn him increased playing time in the coming weeks as well. While Carson's volume and production have been impressive up until this point in the season, exercise caution projecting his workload in the short-term future, as head coach Pete Carroll has proven intolerant of his issues holding onto the football. Neither running back's workload is safe entering Week 13, and against the Minnesota Vikings, who sport one of the league's best run defenses, it does not project to be a great matchup anyway.

On the year, the Minnesota Vikings' defense has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, while also ranking top-10 in yards per carry allowed at just 4.1. The Vikings' front-seven is one of the league's most formidable run-stopping units in the league, and they deserve most of the credit for this impressive performance. Their defensive line is filled with top-end run-stoppers like Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter on the edge to go along with Shamar Stephens on the interior. Then, at linebacker, Eric Kendricks leads the team with 55 total tackles on the season, which is good enough for 15th in the NFL. Lastly, in the secondary, Anthony Harris is one of the league's best run-stuffing safeties. Harris has a nose for the ball, and he is willing to come down into the box and get physical to help shut down the opposition's rushing attack. The distribution of carries in Seattle's backfield leading up to Week 13 is unclear, given Chris Carson's recent propensity to put the ball on the turf. However, regardless of whether it is Carson or Rashaad Penny carrying the ball, the Seahawks' running backs will have their work cut out for themselves, attempting to establish the run against Minnesota's top-tier run defense.

Seahawks Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

The Seattle Seahawks, led by quarterback and MVP candidate Russell Wilson, throw the ball as effectively as almost any other team in the league, ranking 5th in the NFL with 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt on the year. However, the Seahawks rarely elect to air it out, as they rank 23rd in the league in pass attempts per game. Two receivers have separated themselves from the rest of the pack as Wilson's favorite targets this season. Tyler Lockett tops the charts as Seattle's leader in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns through 11 games this season, and his role is as secure as any in the league. Although he was considered to be a raw prospect at the wide receiver position, D.K. Metcalf has surprised many by posting respectable numbers across the board in his rookie season. Josh Gordon, who the Seahawks signed off of waivers just over three weeks ago, has yet to play over half of Seattle's offensive snaps in either of their first two games. His role should grow as the season goes on, and he builds a strong rapport with Wilson at quarterback, but keep expectations low in the short-term future while his role is uncertain. Seattle's offensive line has struggled this season, allowing constant pressure on Russell Wilson in the pocket. However, Wilson's other-worldly ability to extend plays has trumped this weakness in the trenches en route to top-end passing production in 2019.

Minnesota's pass defense is a highly-talented unit that, despite facing the 5th-most pass attempts in the NFL, has allowed the 19th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings field a strong pass-rush to go along with a deep and talented unit of coverage players, aside from one critical weakness at cornerback. The team's weakness at cornerback has fostered a fantasy-friendly environment for top-end wide receivers, as they have allowed 4 100-yard games in the last 3 games and 5 such performances over their last 5 games. Aside from that, however, the Vikings' defense is filled with impactful players capable of disrupting opposing passing attacks. Along the defensive line, Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter combine to make up one of the league's strongest edge-rushing duos. Then, at linebacker, Eric Kendricks has grown into one of the NFL's most well-rounded players, capable defending both the run and the pass. Lastly, at safety, Anthony Harris leads the way with three interceptions on the season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Harris' running mate, Harrison Smith, is also a perennial Pro-Bowl candidate thanks to his impressive coverage skills, and this year is no different. On the whole, the Vikings do a good job limiting big plays and the opposition's passing attack in general; however, a weakness at cornerback with Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes regressing to below-average levels this season has allowed opposing top-end wide receivers to post impressive receiving totals.

Seahawks vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.3)18 (+0.4)22 (+1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.2)10 (-1.3)5 (-3.9)10 (-2.2)
9Jameis Winston7929443352028025.625.620.224.2
10Jimmy Garoppolo8824462481121015.515.511.013.0
12Carson Wentz76334525612527017.517.510.912.9

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6400)

10@ DAL7623322202015019.519.519.319.3
11vs DEN6329353193021028.128.122.926.9
13PROJ-Dodds23342541.60.6250.119.619.619.6 (H=44)19.6 (H=54)
13PROJ-Tremblay22332461.40.8250. (H=39)18.2 (H=47)
13PROJ-Bloom21312221.90.6230.1191919.0 (H=42)19.0 (H=51)

Seahawks vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.2)10 (-1.3)10 (-1.5)10 (-1.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.6)13 (-3.3)14 (-2.7)12 (-4.0)
9Ronald Jones42186712215014.
9Dare Ogunbowale21111111207.
10Tevin Coleman449400443207.
10Raheem Mostert19628011703.
12Miles Sanders6412630532308.611.610.111.6
12Jay Ajayi9616000001.

Dalvin Cook (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $9000)

10@ DAL572697177.086024.331.327.831.3
11vs DEN511126165.031011.716.714.216.7
13PROJ-Dodds18840.64.6450.117.121.719.4 (H=40)21.7 (H=45)
13PROJ-Tremblay17780.64.5400.11620.518.3 (H=36)20.5 (H=41)
13PROJ-Bloom21950.94.0390.119.423.421.4 (H=47)23.4 (H=52)

Alexander Mattison (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4300)

10@ DAL14852011.0205.
11vs DEN435000.0000.
13PROJ-Dodds6260.10.4303.53.93.7 (H=4)3.9 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay6240.10.6503.54.13.8 (H=4)4.1 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom4110.10.0001.71.71.7 (H=1)1.7 (H=1)

C.J. Ham (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ DAL281-1000.000-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
11vs DEN910011.0600.
13PROJ-Dodds0000.9600.61.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
13PROJ-Tremblay0200.9700.91.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Seahawks vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.8)15 (+0.8)17 (+0.3)19 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+3.7)27 (+7.9)28 (+6.5)28 (+9.6)
9Mike Evans681612180100024.
9Breshad Perriman488442100010.
10Deebo Samuel73118112000011.
10Kendrick Bourne628442100010.
12J.J. Arcega-Whiteside54524300004.
12Greg Ward37764000004.

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7400)

10@ DAL6063.04900004.
11vs DEN6255.0121100018.123.120.626.1
13PROJ-Dodds4.6740.40009.814.412.1 (H=19)14.4 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.2680.40109.313.511.4 (H=17)13.5 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0740.6000111613.5 (H=22)16.0 (H=32)

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $7000)

11vs DEN000.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3.8510.30006.910.78.8 (H=12)10.7 (H=17)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.2450.30106.49.68.0 (H=10)9.6 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Olabisi Johnson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

10@ DAL5442.02500002.
11vs DEN5196.03500003.
13PROJ-Dodds2.5250.20003.76.25.0 (H=6)6.2 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.3270.20003.96.25.1 (H=6)6.2 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0410.40006.510.58.5 (H=16)10.5 (H=30)

Seahawks vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.1)29 (+3.8)29 (+3.0)29 (+4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.1)25 (+3.2)22 (+1.0)23 (+2.8)
9Tanner Hudson49211201.
10Ross Dwelley80732402.
12Zach Ertz66141291115.

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4200)

10@ DAL5954.014213.417.417.419.4
11vs DEN5555.067112.717.715.217.7
13PROJ-Dodds3.4300. (H=11)8.2 (H=18)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.6230. (H=8)6.7 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0310. (H=16)10.1 (H=26)

Irv Smith (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3200)

10@ DAL5665.03403.
11vs DEN5133.02018119.511.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.8260. (H=6)6.6 (H=16)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.4230. (H=5)5.9 (H=13)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0240. (H=6)6.6 (H=16)

Seahawks vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-0.5)9T (-0.5)7 (-0.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.3)4 (-2.3)4T (-2.3) (+0.0)
9Matt Gay2344101012.012.0
10Robbie Gould0000000.00.0
12Jake Elliott1100333.03.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ DAL2222888.08.0
11vs DEN0033333.03.0

Seahawks vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.7)28 (+2.7)21T (+0.5)21T (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.0)30 (+6.0)25 (+2.6)25 (+2.6)
9Tampa Bay Buccaneers4049230100551.01.0
10San Francisco 49ers2733651301252519.019.0
12Philadelphia Eagles1734861100101011.011.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ DAL24.0044311000333.03.0
11vs DEN23.0039421000444.04.0
13PROJ-Dodds25.403792.50.80.600. (H=16)7.2 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay26.003691.90.70.500. (H=12)5.9 (H=17)

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.6)14 (-0.7)14 (-0.7)13 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.1)18 (+1.0)14 (+0.8)15 (+0.8)
9Matt Moore6025352751000017.817.815.015.0
10Dak Prescott7128463973100030.930.926.929.9
11Brandon Allen81173924011318016.816.814.414.4

Russell Wilson (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6600)

10@ SF74243423211653019.919.917.617.6
12@ PHI65132520011315014.514.510.511.5
13PROJ-Dodds20312441.80.75240.222.322.322.3 (H=54)22.3 (H=65)
13PROJ-Tremblay19302281.60.75240.220.720.720.7 (H=48)20.7 (H=57)
13PROJ-Bloom19262382.10.54290.223.923.923.9 (H=61)23.9 (H=73)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.8)4 (-5.2)5 (-4.4)4 (-5.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.3)6 (-5.6)10 (-4.3)6 (-5.3)
9Damien Williams43121251223018.820.819.823.8
9LeSean McCoy639011000.
10Ezekiel Elliott7020470321606.
10Jamize Olawale500000000.
11Phillip Lindsay521667022807.
11Andy Janovich1411111306.

Chris Carson (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6100)

10@ SF712589143.012016.119.117.619.1
12@ PHI35826044.03105.
13PROJ-Dodds14600.32.8200.110.413.211.8 (H=19)13.2 (H=28)
13PROJ-Tremblay13530.33.0230.1101311.5 (H=19)13.0 (H=27)
13PROJ-Bloom12520.52.0140. (H=18)12.2 (H=24)

Rashaad Penny (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4500)

10@ SF322000.0000.20.2-1.8-0.8
12@ PHI3014129110.00018.918.918.921.9
13PROJ-Dodds10460.30.5406.87.37.1 (H=9)7.3 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay13580.40.6508.79.39.0 (H=14)9.3 (H=21)
13PROJ-Bloom11510.50.0008.18.18.1 (H=12)8.1 (H=16)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.0)30 (+6.2)29 (+4.8)30 (+6.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+12.2)31 (+15.1)31 (+12.9)31 (+17.6)
9Tyreek Hill6086140115020.526.523.529.5
9Sammy Watkins541076300006.313.39.813.3
10Amari Cooper631411147100020.731.726.234.7
10Randall Cobb5786106100016.622.619.625.6
11Courtland Sutton72951130210014.219.216.321.8
11Tim Patrick59847700007.711.79.711.7

Tyler Lockett (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $7200)

10@ SF5343.02601302.
12@ PHI5621.03800003.
13PROJ-Dodds5.3710.40009.514.812.3 (H=22)14.9 (H=29)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.7640.40108.913.611.4 (H=19)13.7 (H=25)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.7 (H=23)15.2 (H=30)

DK Metcalf (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $6100)

10@ SF72106.07000007138.012.0
12@ PHI5763.03500003.
13PROJ-Dodds3.9590.40008.312.210.3 (H=18)12.2 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.0610.40108.612.610.6 (H=18)12.6 (H=26)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0590.60009.513.511.5 (H=21)13.5 (H=29)

Josh Gordon (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

10@ SF2822.02700002.
12@ PHI2221.0100000121.52.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.8240.20003.65.44.5 (H=5)5.4 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.7110.10001.72.42.1 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0320.3000576.0 (H=9)7.0 (H=15)

David Moore (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ SF2010.000000000.00.0
12@ PHI1821.03101403.
13PROJ-Dodds1.3200.10002.63.93.3 (H=3)3.9 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.3190.10202.743.4 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)

Malik Turner (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3100)

10@ SF3522.03500003.
12@ PHI1721.03310009.310.39.810.3
13PROJ-Dodds0.7120.10001.82.52.2 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.790.10001.52.21.9 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=4)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.9)22 (+0.7)15 (-0.3)22 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)22 (+1.3)20 (+0.8)22 (+1.2)
9Travis Kelce58976206.213.29.713.2
10Blake Jarwin23433503.
11Troy Fumagalli2931316.

Jacob Hollister (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

10@ SF58108.062112.
12@ PHI4542.02202.
13PROJ-Dodds3.7330. (H=12)9.4 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.5330. (H=11)9.2 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0350. (H=13)9.9 (H=26)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.0)16 (+0.0)18T (+0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+3.7)32 (+3.7)32 (+5.0) (+0.0)
9Harrison Butker4422141418.018.0
10Brett Maher1233666.06.0
11Brandon McManus3422111113.013.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ SF22339911.011.0
12@ PHI1122555.05.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.5)5T (-2.5)3 (-3.5)3 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.7)5 (-3.7)5 (-4.4)5 (-4.4)
9Kansas City Chiefs2330810000111.01.0
10Dallas Cowboys2836410000110.00.0
11Denver Broncos2732150200999.09.0

Seattle Seahawks (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ SF24.0030251201232318.018.0
12@ PHI9.0034432300131319.019.0
13PROJ-Dodds22.803822. (H=18)7.7 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay23.003582.10.80.600. (H=18)7.8 (H=23)