Matchup Analysis: Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Packers 27, Giants 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense23.5 (+1.1) (13)103 (-8) (19)238 (+2) (13)
Giants Defense28.0 (+5.6) (29)117 (+5) (22)260 (+24) (26)

New York Giants Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Giants Offense19.7 (-2.7) (24)96 (-15) (21)219 (-15) (22)
Packers Defense22.0 (-0.4) (14)126 (+14) (26)255 (+19) (23)

Packers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Giants defense.

The Packers offensive line was dominated from the start last week by San Francisco as the combination of the game script and the offensive line issues essentially caused the Packers to struggle mightily on the run as Jones and Jamaal Williams ran the ball 24 times for just 83 yards. This caused Matt LaFleur to come out and state that they need to get Aaron Jones more involved. The Packers offensive line issues are still likely going to be an issue this week as right tackle Bryan Bulaga looks like he will be out with an MCL sprain which will force Alex Light into the starting role after struggling mightily so far this season in his two games where he has seen meaningful playing time. Light and Jimmy Graham could prove to be an issue going forward if Bulaga remains out as both are below average blockers.

The Giants run defense has turned a corner over the last four weeks as they have shut down opponents in three of their last four games holding the Bears, Jets, and Lions to an average of 49 yards rushing in those three games. While the numbers may look impressive, it was against three of the worst run offenses in football. This is an up-and-down unit that while allowing 4.0 yards-per-carry when they get beat they get bad badly as evidenced by Ezekiel Elliott, Chase Edmonds, and Dalvin Cook all rushing for 125 yards or more against this offense since Week 5. The key thing to beating this defense is getting past their defensive line as they have one of the worst linebacking combinations in football with Alec Ogletree and the combination of Deone Bucannon and David Mayo. The Giants also suffered a key injury as run-stopping safety Jabrill Peppers was injured last week and will miss this game.

Packers Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Giants defense.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing offense looked like it wanted no part of last week’s game against the 49ers as Rodgers threw the ball 33 times for just 104 yards averaging 3.3 yards-per-attempt. With the offensive line issues with Bryan Bulaga out, the Packers had no time to develop any sort of passing game and Rodgers was sacked five times. This has been a growing concern for the Packers as Rodgers has now been sacked 15 times over the last 4 games compared to just 12 times over his first 7 games which include a 5-sack game in Week 1 against the Bears. The Packers seem to be looking for answers and consistency amongst their wide receivers as they have been searching for answers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Geronimo Allison.

The Giants secondary has been abysmal this season and they have been propped up largely due to the lack of elite passing games and quarterbacks this season. The Giants have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers at 197 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game to the position. They boast a secondary that has two of the worst cornerbacks in football in Corey Ballentine and Deandre Baker. While Janoris Jenkins is still serviceable, this is a matchup nightmare for the Giants who are second in the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.6. This is a unit that will also be without Jabrill Peppers this week and while Peppers is a better run defender than he is in coverage, he is still a more experienced safety compared to Julian Love who is a fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame.

Giants Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Saquon Barkley and the Giants rushing attack has been horrendous since Week 3. Since Week 3, Saquon Barkley is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and has three games in which he has a 2.0 yards-per-carry or less. Everyone on the offense is to blame for the lack of results as Saquon does not seem to be 100% healthy or trust that he is 100% healthy, the offensive line has been inconsistent as Matt Bitontihas the offensive line ranked 21st overall, Daniel Jones and the wide receivers are to blame for not helping defenses be honest. Overall it is a disaster of a season in for the Giants who have invested a lot to help this running game including trading for right guard Kevin Zeitler who has been their best offensive lineman so far this year.

On the year, the Packers run defense has been their weakness. So far this season, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the sixth-most yards, and the second-most touchdowns to the position. They did do a nice job last week holding Tevin Coleman to just 39 yards on 11 carries. The problem for Green Bay has been the overall lack of playmakers on their defense as it is a defense designed to stop the pass as they primarily play a Dime defense as their base set to stop the pass. Kenny Clark has done a nice job at the nose tackle position and Za’Darius Smith has done a nice job on the outside, but the problem is up the middle if teams can control Clark, Blake Martinez has had a tough year at making consistent plays. This is a spot where Saquon Barkley could have a tremendous game this week.

Giants Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Giants passing game has been about what you would expect from a rookie quarterback as he has been up and down for most of the season. The Giants have had their fair share of bad luck on the year as Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard have both been dealing with injuries throughout the year that have made it very tough for Jones and the offense to resemble any sort of continuity in the passing game. The Giants look like they will be without Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison this week leaving Kaden Smith as the primary receiving tight end. Smith had six targets last week of which he caught five passes but was more of a possession receiver as the catches only went for a total of 15 yards.

The Packers have been an average passing defense this year as they have only allowed three 300+ yard passers both in which games that they had a commanding lead and won by more than a touchdown. While they have rarely allowed the big passing game, they have not been a shut-down defense either as they have allowed 250 yards or more in seven straight games. This remains a young secondary that while talented with Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, has been one of the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends allowing 109 yards per game over their last five games to the position. This is a unit that has a weakness at the linebacker position as well as at the safety position in rookie Darnell Savage who has struggled. Now, there is some caution there as they have faced the gauntlet of tight ends over the last five weeks in Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, Greg Olsen, and George Kittle, but the numbers are alarming even with the talent that they have faced.

Giants vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.9)24 (+2.9)24 (+2.9)24 (+3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.5)28 (+3.5)28 (+3.7)28 (+2.8)
9Dak Prescott71223525731312025.125.122.522.5
10Sam Darnold65193023010325124.024.021.721.7
12Mitchell Trubisky76254127812718123.723.720.920.9

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $6500)

10vs CAR6817292330017012.412.410.010.0
12@ SF68203310410313010.510.59.510.5
13PROJ-Dodds23352641.80.53110.121.621.621.6 (H=50)21.6 (H=63)
13PROJ-Tremblay24382751.70.93110.121.421.421.4 (H=49)21.4 (H=62)
13PROJ-Bloom24342452.20.6280.222.522.522.5 (H=54)22.5 (H=67)

Giants vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.3)17 (+0.1)15 (+0.3)16 (+0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.9)7 (-5.6)7 (-5.0)7 (-5.3)
9Ezekiel Elliott57231390000013.913.913.916.9
9Tony Pollard15321031903.
10LeVeon Bell48183414434012.816.814.816.8
10Bilal Powell15715000001.
12Tarik Cohen426250972905.412.48.912.4
12David Montgomery471322032903.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6800)

10vs CAR341393300.00027.327.327.327.3
12@ SF411338010.0003.
13PROJ-Dodds13560.62.9270.213.11614.6 (H=25)16.0 (H=35)
13PROJ-Tremblay12490.62.9260.111.714.613.2 (H=21)14.6 (H=30)
13PROJ-Bloom13570.92.0150. (H=24)15.2 (H=32)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4500)

10vs CAR341363010.0006.
12@ SF391145087.035081511.515.0
13PROJ-Dodds9360.23.6250.39.112.710.9 (H=22)12.7 (H=36)
13PROJ-Tremblay9340.24.1310.39.513.611.6 (H=24)13.6 (H=40)
13PROJ-Bloom10410.24.0270.39.813.811.8 (H=25)13.8 (H=41)

Giants vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.7)31 (+7.0)31 (+6.1)31 (+7.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.8)25 (+5.3)24 (+4.4)23 (+5.0)
9Amari Cooper617480100014.
9Michael Gallup65623310009.311.310.311.3
10Jamison Crowder476581100014.119.116.619.1
10Demaryius Thomas48968400008.414.411.414.4
12Allen Robinson69106131100019.
12Anthony Miller42967700007.713.710.713.7

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7000)

10vs CAR54107.0118000011.818.815.321.8
12@ SF60127.043100010.317.315.819.3
13PROJ-Dodds6.6840.400010.817.414.1 (H=24)17.4 (H=40)
13PROJ-Tremblay6.5870.400011.117.614.4 (H=25)17.6 (H=41)
13PROJ-Bloom7.0760.600011.218.214.7 (H=26)18.2 (H=43)

Allen Lazard (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

10vs CAR3063.02700002.
12@ SF5221.07012102.
13PROJ-Dodds2.6320.20004.475.7 (H=7)7.0 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.3310.20204.56.85.7 (H=7)6.8 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0340.30005.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=20)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4100)

10vs CAR1110.000000000.00.0
12@ SF3031.0700000.
13PROJ-Dodds1.3220.10002.84.13.5 (H=3)4.1 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.0160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=2)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs CAR4233.0600000.
12@ SF5443.0900000.
13PROJ-Dodds1.8190.10002.54.33.4 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.7190.10002.54.23.4 (H=3)4.2 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0220.3000475.5 (H=7)7.0 (H=15)

Jake Kumerow (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs CAR2322.02300002.
12@ SF2210.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.1140.100023.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.9120.10001.82.72.3 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0280.30004.66.65.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=15)

Giants vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.0)3 (-3.3)3 (-2.6)3 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.1)14 (-0.9)13 (-1.0)14 (-1.0)
9Blake Jarwin261142110.211.210.711.2
10Trevon Wesco18111501.
12Ben Braunecker5442900.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs CAR4442.05905.
12@ SF3821.0700.
13PROJ-Dodds2.7310.24.375.7 (H=7)7.0 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.9330. (H=7)7.4 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0310. (H=6)6.3 (H=12)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs CAR3800.000000.00.0
12@ SF2800.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds0.8100. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.8100. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Giants vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30T (+1.6)30T (+1.6)30 (+1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+3.4)30 (+3.4)30 (+4.0) (+0.0)
9Brett Maher3444131315.015.0
10Sam Ficken2344101012.012.0
12Eddy Pineiro2212777.07.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs CAR1133667.07.0
12@ SF0000000.00.0

Giants vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+5.3)32 (+5.3)30 (+4.4)30 (+4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+8.6)32 (+8.6)30 (+4.9)30 (+4.9)
9Dallas Cowboys1827151201232318.018.0
10New York Jets2728160201222216.016.0
12Chicago Bears1424310100334.04.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

10vs CAR16.0040131100778.08.0
12@ SF37.003393000033-1.0-1.0
13PROJ-Dodds19.4034731.10.700.511.111.111.1 (H=26)11.1 (H=38)
13PROJ-Tremblay19.503692.51.10.700.510.310.310.3 (H=23)10.3 (H=33)

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.7)9 (-1.8)10 (-2.3)9 (-2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.4)7 (-2.4)8 (-3.2)8 (-2.8)
9Philip Rivers7121282940030014.714.711.811.8
10Kyle Allen73284330711312019.619.614.518.5
12Jimmy Garoppolo4814202532021020.820.818.218.2

Daniel Jones (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5600)

10@ NYJ71264030840320033.433.430.334.3
12@ CHI60213615020227018.218.214.715.7
13PROJ-Dodds22362451.41.14240.119.719.719.7 (H=47)19.7 (H=62)
13PROJ-Tremblay24382671.41.13210.120.520.520.5 (H=50)20.5 (H=66)
13PROJ-Bloom18311841.314290.116.916.916.9 (H=36)16.9 (H=47)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.7)29T (+5.0)29 (+4.9)30 (+5.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+8.5)29 (+8.9)31 (+8.9)29 (+9.2)
9Melvin Gordon45208024329022.925.924.425.9
9Austin Ekeler2412700442309.313.311.313.3
10Christian McCaffrey732010817633020.
10Alex Armah1100000000.
12Raheem Mostert1464513122012.713.713.213.7
12Tevin Coleman29113914210010.912.911.912.9

Saquon Barkley (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $7400)

10@ NYJ59131055.03003.
12@ CHI581759032.010687.08.0
13PROJ-Dodds17750.44.3340.113.918.216.1 (H=32)18.2 (H=41)
13PROJ-Tremblay17750.44.3330.113.818.116.0 (H=32)18.1 (H=40)
13PROJ-Bloom17750.54.0310.214.818.816.8 (H=34)18.8 (H=43)

Wayne Gallman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4700)

10@ NYJ1212021.0300.
12@ CHI211000.0000.
13PROJ-Dodds1400.76011.71.4 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
13PROJ-Tremblay0200.5500.71.21.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
13PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.9)9 (-4.4)9 (-3.2)9 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.6)7 (-7.0)8 (-5.2)9 (-6.0)
9Mike Williams6543111012011.314.312.817.3
9Keenan Allen62434000004.
10D.J. Moore73119120000012.021.016.524.0
10Curtis Samuel61843510009.513.511.513.5
12Deebo Samuel352250100011.
12Kendrick Bourne24222700002.

Golden Tate (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5800)

10@ NYJ6884.095200021.525.521.524.5
12@ CHI5073.03310009.312.310.812.3
13PROJ-Dodds4.1520.3000711.19.1 (H=14)11.2 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.6480.30006.610.28.5 (H=12)10.3 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Darius Slayton (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5300)

10@ NYJ671410.0121200024.
12@ CHI5174.06700006.710.78.710.7
13PROJ-Dodds3.5520.3000710.58.8 (H=13)10.5 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.2470.30006.59.78.1 (H=11)9.7 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0640.40008.812.810.8 (H=19)12.8 (H=31)

Sterling Shepard (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4900)

12@ CHI5795.015012203.
13PROJ-Dodds4.9550.2130711.99.5 (H=16)11.9 (H=29)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.4630.31408.513.911.2 (H=22)13.9 (H=38)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0510.40007.512.510.0 (H=18)12.5 (H=32)

Cody Latimer (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ NYJ610.000000000.00.0
12@ CHI911.0700000.
13PROJ-Dodds0.910000011.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.5700000.71.21.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0190.10002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=9)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.8)30 (+3.9)30 (+3.2)30 (+4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.8)29 (+6.9)30 (+5.9)31 (+7.8)
9Hunter Henry551078408.415.411.915.4
10Greg Olsen731089809.817.813.817.8
12George Kittle3866129118.924.921.927.9

Kaden Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2900)

10@ NYJ4111.0100.
12@ CHI5965.01717.712.710.212.7
13PROJ-Dodds1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0190. (H=7)6.1 (H=15)

Rhett Ellison (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3200)

10@ NYJ3533.04204.
12@ CHI000.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.8180. (H=3)4.2 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Evan Engram (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5200)

12@ CHI000.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.1330. (H=7)7.6 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-0.5)9T (-0.5)12T (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.6)14T (-0.6)17T (-0.0) (+0.0)
9Mike Badgley4522141416.016.0
10Joey Slye1111446.06.0
12Robbie Gould0000000.00.0

Aldrick Rosas (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ NYJ0012111.01.0
12@ CHI0222222.02.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-2.9)2T (-2.9)5 (-3.0)5 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.4)7 (-3.4)10 (-1.1)10 (-1.1)
9Los Angeles Chargers1118430000337.07.0
10Carolina Panthers2438820000222.02.0
12San Francisco 49ers8198501007711.011.0

New York Giants (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $1900)

10@ NYJ34.0029420000221.01.0
12@ CHI19.0033522000667.07.0
13PROJ-Dodds25.803712.40.60.500. (H=15)6.2 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay26.003702.50.90.600. (H=19)7.1 (H=31)