Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bills 20, Cowboys 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense21.0 (-1.4) (21)139 (+27) (5)214 (-21) (24)
Cowboys Defense19.1 (-3.3) (7)105 (-6) (15)214 (-21) (6)

Dallas Cowboys Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Cowboys Offense26.8 (+4.4) (6)130 (+18) (8)303 (+68) (1)
Bills Defense15.7 (-6.7) (3)104 (-7) (14)184 (-51) (3)

Bills Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

Since returning from injury, Bills' rookie Devin Singletary has taken over as the team's number-one running back in Buffalo's high-volume and high-efficiency rushing attack. Quarterback Josh Allen's athleticism and rushing prowess add an extra element of uncertainty for defenses to account for, which also assists the production of the team's running backs. Singletary has played at least 65-percent of offensive snaps in all 5 games since returning from injury, including games of 15, 20, and 21 carries. Frank Gore's presence in the backfield prevents Singletary from reaching bell-cow status, as Gore commands about 10 carries per game. Singletary's combination of explosiveness and efficiency fosters admirable rushing production, with at least 75 yards on the ground in 3 out of his last 4 games. The team's offensive line is a mediocre unit, but the volume and versatility of the rushing attack have led to this unit ranking 7th in the NFL with 4.7 yards per carry.

The Dallas Cowboys' run defense ranks as a middle-of-the-road unit, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, but those numbers are heavily skewed by a 100-yard and 4-touchdown performance by Aaron Jones in Week 5. The Cowboys have not allowed a 100-yard performance on the ground since this outlier game against the Green Bay Packers, and they field a top-14 defense in the league in yards per carry allowed. In all, Dallas' defense is an above-average unit thanks to a strong front-seven littered with run-stoppers. The Cowboys' defensive line, headlined Demarcus Lawrence on the edge and Christian Covington on the interior, features a deep rotation of strong run-stopping linemen to clog potential running lanes by beating their blockers. Then, at linebacker, Jaylon Smith is coming into his own in his third NFL season, grading as one of the league's premier run-stopping defenders. Smith's incredible defensive IQ and sure tackling abilities have him ranked 9th in the NFL in total tackles through 11 games, with 62 to his name thus far. Buffalo's dynamic rushing attack has had little trouble running the ball in volume, thanks to their soft schedule, throughout the first two-thirds of the NFL season, but a tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys' will likely limit both their volume and efficiency on the ground in this Thanksgiving Day matchup.

Bills Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

On Thanksgiving afternoon, Josh Allen will lead an unimpressive Buffalo Bills passing attack against a formidable Dallas Cowboys defense. Buffalo's passing game is a low-volume unit, ranking 22nd in total passing attempts and 24th in total yardage through the air. Josh Allen's shortcomings as a passer have hindered the unit's efficiency totals as well with just a 15-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with 6.7 adjusted yards per pass attempts, which ranks 25th in the league. John Brown is the team's number-one target through the air, topping the team's leaderboards in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns this season. Brown is also the team's biggest downfield threat, totaling 40-percent of the Bills' total air yards on the season. Cole Beasley complements Brown out of the slot, where Beasley is a high-volume and low-upside pass-catcher that lacks the requisite yardage totals to make him a viable fantasy receiver in most formats. Aside from these two, Buffalo's passing game leaves much to be desired, as second-year-quarterback Josh Allen's accuracy and IQ as a passer are not his strengths at this point in his career.

Dallas' pass defense on the surface looks like a mediocre unit, ranking 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks on the season; however, after digging deeper, the Cowboys field a deep and respectable unit of defenders against the pass. Led by Demarcus Lawrence and Robert Quinn in the trenches, the Cowboys' pass rush is a formidable unit that frequently applies pressure on opposing quarterbacks. On the season, the Cowboys have only allowed 5.7 net yards per attempt, which ranks 5th-best in the league. Dallas' secondary is a well-rounded unit, fielding three above-average coverage corners, along with a pair of capable safeties. On the season, the Cowboys have only allowed 1 wide receiver to surpass 100 yards against them: Robby Anderson, who racked up 92 out of his 125 receiving yards on just 1 reception. Additionally, Dallas' defense has done an excellent job containing opposing passing attacks, allowing just 2 300-yard passers on the season thus far. Expect the Cowboys' deep defensive unit that features top-end pass rushers along with capable coverage linebackers and a well-rounded secondary to give Josh Allen and the unimpressive Buffalo Bills passing attack fits on Thanksgiving afternoon.

Cowboys Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Ezekiel Elliott's status as the Dallas Cowboys' bell-cow running back, as long as he is healthy, is one of the few remaining certainties in the NFL this season. Elliott has played at least 80-percent of offensive snaps for the Cowboys in every game since Week 3, including at least 20 carries in 5 out of the last 6 games. Elliott's volume on the ground is one of the highest and most consistent of any running back in the nation, but his efficiency has been lackluster this season, averaging only 4.3 yards per carry. Dak Prescott and the passing attack have carried the Cowboys' offense. Still, they continue to feed Zeke each week, and running behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines; his efficiency should rebound towards his career average of over 4.6 yards per carry sooner rather than later. Dallas' relative struggles on the ground should not continue much longer this season, and Ezekiel Elliott will be the primary beneficiary of some positive regression in this backfield.

Buffalo's run defense, as is the case with their entire team, has benefited from an exceptionally soft schedule to start the 2019 campaign. This soft schedule has fostered an unexpected 8-3 start for the Bills, where they have consistently played with a lead, disallowing their opponents to attempt to establish the run game on most occasions. Buffalo has defended the 10th-fewest rushing attempts on the season, but they've allowed the 13th-most yards per carry of any team in the league. The Bills have allowed just 3 100-yard rushers this season; however, when opposing running backs have tallied at least 20 carries on the day, they have registered either 75+ yards and a touchdown or surpassed the century mark in all 3 games. The strength of this defense comes in the secondary, where the safeties' willingness to come down in run support has mostly limited explosive plays this season. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer grade as the team's best run defenders this season, which helps make up for a mediocre front-seven that lacks a true difference-maker against the ground game. Dallas' high-volume rushing attack featuring one of the league's top running back and offensive line combinations will put Buffalo's run defense to the test this week. Expect a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott on Thanksgiving Day afternoon, as the Cowboys' top-end offense attempts to expose the Buffalo Bills' defense as an overrated unit bolstered by one of the league's easiest schedules.

Cowboys Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bills defense.

The Dallas Cowboys, while a middling team in terms of volume, field one of the most efficient and prolific passing attacks in the entire NFL. Dak Prescott's performance in 2019 has been nothing short of spectacular, leading the NFL of yards, ranking 6th in total touchdown passes, and 6th in adjusted yards per attempt. Prescott's new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, deserves much of the credit for the team's impressing passing game this season. He has built an offense predicated around more efficient passing concepts and strategies, such as play-action-passing (which the Cowboys utilize more than every team except the Kansas City Chiefs.) At wide receiver, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup form one of the most formidable one-two punches in the NFL. Cooper leads the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns this season, with Gallup ranking second in all four categories. Dallas' top-flight offensive line does an exceptional job of keeping Dak Prescott clean in the pocket, which is paramount to passing success. In all, Dallas' passing attack is one of the NFL's best units, with capable weapons throughout the offense.

The Buffalo Bills' untested defense sports some of the most impressive defensive numbers in the NFL this season at face-value, however, their schedule has been unfathomably easy to this point. Buffalo's pass defense has not exactly faced a murderer's row of quarterbacks this season, as they've played: Sam Darnold, Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Dwayne Haskins, Brandon Allen, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice) in 8 out of their 11 games. This list features six quarterbacks that have spent extended time as their team's respective backup quarterbacks this season. Unsurprisingly, given their schedule, the Bills' defense ranks amongst the league's best units against the pass, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Their defensive personnel is representative of an above-average defensive unit, but certainly not a top-tier defense that will stifle any and every passing offense in their path. Tre'Davious White stands out as Buffalo's best defender against the pass. The young cornerback is one of the league's emerging stars in the secondary; he rarely gets beat in coverage, and he is a play-maker with the ball in the air, ranking third in the league with four interceptions on the season. In the trenches, Jordan Phillips and Jerry Hughes lead the way as the team's best pass-rushers. Phillips leads the team with 7.0 sacks on the season, while Hughes leads the way with 37 pressures on opposing quarterbacks through 11 games. Their defensive front, which has taken advantage of bottom-tier offensive lines throughout the first two-thirds of the season, will have the odds stacked against them in Week 13 when they face-off with Dallas' top-flight group of bruisers. Expect Buffalo's numbers to regress from being one of the league's best pass defenses through 11 games to merely an average or slightly-above-average unit in Week 13's Thanksgiving Day matchup with the Cowboys' elite passing attack.

Cowboys vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.9)8 (-2.9)8 (-3.2)8 (-3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.5)12 (-0.5)12 (-0.3)11 (-0.7)
9Daniel Jones72264121011654018.918.912.814.8
10Kirk Cousins7623322202015019.519.519.319.3
11Jeff Driskel65152620920851129.629.627.527.5
12Tom Brady701737190102-3013.213.211.311.3

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6200)

10@ CLE69224126600628228.128.125.425.4
11@ MIA72213325630756136.436.433.833.8
12vs DEN80152518521956021.921.920.020.0
13PROJ-Dodds20312161.216330.420.320.320.3 (H=47)20.3 (H=59)
13PROJ-Tremblay21332271.117330.420.520.520.5 (H=47)20.5 (H=60)
13PROJ-Bloom17261811.616310.520.620.620.6 (H=48)20.6 (H=60)

Cowboys vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.2)18 (+0.7)16 (+0.3)18 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.2)16 (-1.3)16 (-1.1)17 (-2.0)
9Saquon Barkley5914280866709.515.512.515.5
9Wayne Gallman1300010000.
10Dalvin Cook57269717786024.331.327.831.3
10Alexander Mattison14852011205.
11Bo Scarbrough3214551000011.511.511.511.5
11J.D. McKissic153130434005.
12Sony Michel362085000008.
12Rex Burkhead15230521401.

Devin Singletary (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5800)

10@ CLE46842073.080586.58.0
11@ MIA531575011.0407.
12vs DEN5721106021.08011.412.411.915.4
13PROJ-Dodds14590.22.3160.19.311.610.5 (H=17)11.6 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay12550.22.3160.18.911.210.1 (H=16)11.2 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom13640.32.0120.1101211.0 (H=19)12.0 (H=25)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3900)

10@ CLE23512011.0401.
11@ MIA191127021.01804.
12vs DEN231565000.0006.
13PROJ-Dodds8320.20.9705.165.6 (H=7)6.0 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay9350.21.61105.87.46.6 (H=9)7.4 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom10350.30.0005.35.35.3 (H=6)5.3 (H=9)

Cowboys vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.9)4 (-6.5)5 (-5.6)3 (-7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.8)11 (-4.3)12 (-3.5)11 (-5.3)
9Cody Latimer1132810006.
9Golden Tate686642011605.811.88.811.8
10Stefon Diggs60634900004.
10Olabisi Johnson54422500002.
11Marvin Jones57544321-4015.919.917.919.9
11Danny Amendola36544700004.
12Julian Edelman681289300009.317.313.317.3
12Jakobi Meyers54947400007.411.49.411.4

John Brown (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $6300)

10@ CLE64115.07700007.712.710.212.7
11@ MIA71149.0137200025.734.730.237.7
12vs DEN7442.03910009.911.910.911.9
13PROJ-Dodds5.3740.30009.214.511.9 (H=22)14.5 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.8790.30009.715.512.6 (H=24)15.5 (H=36)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0660.50009.614.612.1 (H=22)14.6 (H=32)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4700)

10@ CLE4664.07400007.411.49.411.4
11@ MIA6544.03800003.
12vs DEN6596.076100013.619.616.619.6
13PROJ-Dodds4.2470.30006.510.78.6 (H=14)10.7 (H=25)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.0440.20005.69.67.6 (H=11)9.6 (H=21)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0520.60008.812.810.8 (H=21)12.8 (H=35)

Isaiah McKenzie (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3100)

10@ CLE3742.01900001.
11@ MIA5663.021011003.
12vs DEN6132.01301-500.
13PROJ-Dodds2.3230.21303.86.15.0 (H=6)6.1 (H=14)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.6310.21504.87.46.1 (H=9)7.4 (H=20)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0200.10002.65.64.1 (H=4)5.6 (H=12)

Cowboys vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.7)25 (+1.5)25 (+1.1)25 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.4)13 (-1.5)14 (-0.9)13 (-1.1)
9Evan Engram50864805.
10Kyle Rudolph595414213.417.417.419.4
11T.J. Hockenson4821600.
12Matt LaCosse3411500.

Dawson Knox (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

10@ CLE4064.05505.
11@ MIA5132.03219.
12vs DEN6222.01101.
13PROJ-Dodds2.4270. (H=6)5.7 (H=14)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.2250. (H=5)5.3 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0230. (H=6)5.5 (H=13)

Tyler Kroft (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ CLE3000.000000.00.0
11@ MIA2411.0600.
12vs DEN2511.01401.
13PROJ-Dodds1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.1100. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Cowboys vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.3)19T (+0.3)22T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+0.9)23 (+0.9)22T (+0.7) (+0.0)
9Aldrick Rosas4401121212.012.0
10Dan Bailey2222888.08.0
11Matt Prater0033333.03.0
12Nick Folk2411779.09.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ CLE0222222.02.0
11@ MIA3344131315.015.0
12vs DEN2222888.08.0

Cowboys vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.2)1 (-3.2)2 (-4.3)2 (-4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-4.4)2T (-4.4)4 (-4.5)4 (-4.5)
9New York Giants3742901100443.03.0
10Minnesota Vikings2444311000333.03.0
11Detroit Lions355091010033-1.0-1.0
12New England Patriots932101000228.08.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2200)

10@ CLE19.0036820000225.05.0
11@ MIA20.00303701009910.010.0
12vs DEN3.00134410006613.013.0
13PROJ-Dodds25.6038120.80.500. (H=11)6.2 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay26.004032.310.500. (H=14)6.9 (H=25)

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.6)3 (-6.6)3 (-5.6)3 (-6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-8.6)3 (-8.6)3 (-7.8)3 (-8.0)
9Dwayne Haskins5115221440031408.
10Baker Mayfield7026382382021020.020.017.617.6
11Ryan Fitzpatrick6932453230010016.216.212.915.9
12Brandon Allen50102582012803.

Dak Prescott (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $5700)

10vs MIN7128463973100030.930.926.929.9
11@ DET742946444306180363631.634.6
12@ NE6419332120114010107.97.9
13PROJ-Dodds23352681.60.93170.221.821.821.8 (H=50)21.8 (H=73)
13PROJ-Tremblay23352741.713160.222.322.322.3 (H=52)22.3 (H=75)
13PROJ-Bloom22312732.113140.324.224.224.2 (H=60)24.2 (H=87)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.0)16 (-0.0)18 (+0.4)15T (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-4.1)14 (-3.0)12 (-3.4)15 (-2.2)
9Adrian Peterson361810801122013.014.013.517.0
9Wendell Smallwood1825032-
10Nick Chubb57201160425012.
10Kareem Hunt384300974407.414.410.914.4
11Kalen Ballage5399165807.712.710.212.7
11Patrick Laird16170665105.811.88.811.8
12Phillip Lindsay2713570311106.
12Royce Freeman28220022902.

Ezekiel Elliott (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $7400)

10vs MIN702047032.01606.
11@ DET661645132.028119.321.318.320.3
12@ NE562186044.040012.616.614.616.6
13PROJ-Dodds21950.72.4190.116.218.617.4 (H=33)18.6 (H=42)
13PROJ-Tremblay22960.71.9140.115.817.716.7 (H=31)17.7 (H=39)
13PROJ-Bloom22990.82.0210.117.419.418.4 (H=36)19.4 (H=45)

Tony Pollard (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4900)

10vs MIN31-4000.000-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4
11@ DET13212044.044111.615.615.617.6
12@ NE12419043.0902.
13PROJ-Dodds3140.11.6130. (H=5)5.6 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay3120.12.0150. (H=6)6.0 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom4210.13.0260. (H=12)9.0 (H=18)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.5)8 (-5.2)4 (-5.6)8 (-5.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.3)13 (-3.6)14 (-2.4)14 (-2.6)
9Paul Richardson24544200004.
9Terry McLaurin51643900003.
10Jarvis Landry6510997100015.724.720.224.7
10Rashard Higgins3311710006.
11DeVante Parker62107135000013.520.517.023.5
11Jakeem Grant30333201719.912.917.418.9
12Courtland Sutton50812700002.
12Tim Patrick3231300000.

Amari Cooper (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6000)

10vs MIN631411.0147100020.731.726.234.7
11@ DET4183.03800003.
12@ NE5220.000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds4.7670.50009.714.412.0 (H=18)14.4 (H=33)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.7690.50009.914.612.2 (H=19)14.6 (H=34)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0610.50009.113.111.1 (H=16)13.1 (H=28)

Michael Gallup (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5500)

10vs MIN62104.076100013.617.615.617.6
11@ DET61139.0148000014.823.819.326.8
12@ NE6364.05500005.
13PROJ-Dodds4.4640.40008.813.211.0 (H=18)13.2 (H=31)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.6670.40009.113.711.4 (H=19)13.7 (H=33)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0600.500091311.0 (H=18)13.0 (H=30)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5000)

10vs MIN5786.0106100016.622.619.625.6
11@ DET4674.0115100017.521.519.524.5
12@ NE2974.08600008.612.610.612.6
13PROJ-Dodds3.8510.30006.910.78.8 (H=14)10.7 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.9560.30107.511.49.5 (H=16)11.4 (H=27)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0570.50008.712.710.7 (H=20)12.7 (H=32)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.8)1 (-5.4)2 (-4.6)1 (-5.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-5.2)2 (-7.3)2 (-6.2)2 (-7.4)
9Jeremy Sprinkle38111601.
10Demetrius Harris34222802.
11Mike Gesicki59641801.
12Andrew Beck9111801.

Jason Witten (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs MIN5652.01701.
11@ DET6475.03303.
12@ NE5241.0500.
13PROJ-Dodds3.6280.247.65.8 (H=7)7.6 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.5310. (H=9)8.4 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom3.0190. (H=5)6.1 (H=13)

Blake Jarwin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs MIN2343.03503.
11@ DET2322.03803.
12@ NE2943.01701.
13PROJ-Dodds1.8210. (H=5)5.1 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.6180.234.63.8 (H=4)4.6 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0290. (H=7)6.1 (H=15)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-2.9)2 (-2.9)2 (-3.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-1.4)6 (-1.4)7 (-1.6) (+0.0)
9Dustin Hopkins3300999.09.0
10Austin Seibert2212778.08.0
11Jason Sanders0022222.02.0
12Brandon McManus1100334.04.0

Brett Maher (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs MIN1233666.06.0
11@ DET2233999.09.0
12@ NE34009910.010.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.0)10 (-1.0)12 (-0.4)12 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.9)4 (-3.9)3 (-5.2)3 (-5.2)
9Washington Redskins2426820000222.02.0
10Cleveland Browns1634410010332.02.0
11Miami Dolphins3742400001662.02.0
12Denver Broncos2042411000334.04.0

Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs MIN28.0036410000110.00.0
11@ DET27.0031230000333.03.0
12@ NE13.0028220000226.06.0
13PROJ-Dodds19.203422.50.90.800.510.410.410.4 (H=27)10.4 (H=38)
13PROJ-Tremblay19.003552.210.800.510.310.310.3 (H=27)10.3 (H=37)