Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chargers 25, Raiders 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chargers Offense20.3 (-2.2) (21)79 (-32) (28)281 (+42) (6)
Raiders Defense27.0 (+4.4) (26)92 (-19) (7)297 (+58) (32)

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense22.8 (+0.2) (17)136 (+24) (6)245 (+6) (15)
Chargers Defense18.7 (-3.9) (8)114 (+2) (20)209 (-29) (5)

Chargers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

The Chargers ground game got back on track last week as Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 150 rushing yards while Gordon found the end zone twice--easily his best game of the season. With context, the Packers run defense had been playing very poorly for most of this season--so it was a soft matchup for this group to succeed in. Gordon out-carried Ekeler 20-to-12 as each saw two carries from inside the five-yard line. Ekeler was stuffed on both attempts while Gordon converted on each of his. Previous weeks had been rough sledding for both of these backs as neither had averaged fewer than 2.8 yards per carry from Weeks 6-9. Inconsistent play from the offensive line has certainly played a part in the woes of this rushing offense, and likewise, their solid play was a big part in the success last week as center Scott Quessenberry is playing well while the return of left tackle Russell Okung has proven to be a huge plus for this group. Right tackle Sam Tevi did suffer a knee injury last week, but he is not appearing on the injury report as of early in the week.

The Raiders run defense has been sneakily successful throughout this season, giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (80) to opposing running backs on the season and the sixth-fewest (63) over their last four games. Only one running back has exceeded 56 rushing yards in a game against the Raiders, while just three running backs have scored on the ground against them with none of those rushing touchdowns scored in their last three games. The defensive line takes the most credit for this success as they have been dominant in the trenches. Raiders defensive backs have also done a decent job helping cut down on big plays in the running game. It remains at linebacker where this team has a key weakness with inconsistent play from both Tahir Whitehead and Nicholas Morrow. The Raiders should have an advantage in the trenches, but this matchup could be closer than the stat sheet proposes with the Chargers trending in the right direction with an improving offensive line.

Chargers Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

While the Chargers passing offense was held out of the end zone for just the third time this season, Philip Rivers played a nice game as he completed 75 percent of his passes for 294 yards--the seventh time he has exceeded 290 passing yards this season. What was finally a strong rushing attack helped Rivers in last week’s game, but he was also locked in with Hunter Henry over the middle of the field, who led the team in targets and receptions by more than double any other player. Henry has now exceeded 80 yards ion three of his four games since returning from injury and is competing for honors of the top target in this passing offense. Production from Keenan Allen has been suffering even before Henry’s return from injury, as it has been seven weeks since he has exceeded 61 yards or found the end zone. Allen continues to see a heavy focus from opposing defenses and top cornerbacks while Rivers is simply moving on to other options in this passing offense. Mike Williams is one of those options, albeit a boom or bust one. He was full boom last week as he hauled in a few deep balls and finished with a team-leading 111 receiving yards from just three receptions--good for the first 100-yard game of his three-year career. Williams has now cleared 69 receiving yards in four of his last five games but has yet to find the end zone this season--a surprising stat for such a big-play threat.

The Raiders continue to struggle in a big way against the pass as they were lit up for over 400 passing yards and three or more touchdowns for the third time last week. This defense is now giving up the most passing yards per game in the league with 297.5, and they have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns at 22. The secondary has really done a poor job in coverage throughout the season. While cornerback Darrel Worley made a spectacular interception last week, he remains a very exploitable matchup for the likes of Mike Williams. Keenan Allen also has a great matchup coming out of the slot against LaMarcus Joyner. Hunter Henry should also be licking his chops as this defense has given up at least 60 receiving yards to tight ends in all but two games and has given up the second-most touchdowns (6) to the position. Second-year defensive lineman Arden Key had a solid game last week, but he suffered a foot injury will sideline him for the rest of the season. Losing Key will hurt the depth in this rotation of edge defenders that were already struggling to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Overall, the Chargers should be able to give Rivers more than enough time for his receiving options to find space against this porous secondary.

Raiders Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Josh Jacobs cruised to 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the heels of a season-high 28 carries last week against an advantageous matchup with the Lions. Jacobs has now exceeded 20 carries in four games this season while rushing for 120 or more yards in three of his last four outings. The rookie is now averaging 92.5 rushing yards per game with nearly five yards per rush attempt. He has been playing through a shoulder injury for the past two games, but Jacobs showed no signs of limitations with his heavy workload last week and should be good to go on the short week for this Thursday. Oakland was without starting center Rodney Hudson for the second game last week, and while it did not show in Jacobs’ stats, backup center Andre James was terrible in his first full game under center. It could be more of the same with Hudson not expected to suit up for Thursday. In addition, right tackle Trent Brown was forced from last week’s game with a knee injury and will be questionable coming into this game. If both Brown and Hudson are out, what was a possible top-tier offensive line becomes average, at best, with the outlook for Jacobs also negatively impacted.

After giving up an average of 133 rushing yards and one touchdown per game to opposing running backs from Weeks 5 through 8, the Chargers ratcheted down against the run in Week 9 as they limited Packers running backs to only 40 rushing yards from 10 attempts. Last week was the best game of the season for this run defense as everything seemed to be clicking while key contributors from the secondary--notably Rayshawn Jenkins and Desmond King--made a number of plays against the run. The Chargers do still have question marks on the defensive line as rookie Jerry Tillery is still off to a slow start while both Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane remain sidelined and questionable for this week. Linebacker Denzel Perryman was forced from last week’s game with a knee injury and is questionable coming into Thursday on a short week. While Perryman hasn’t been particularly effective against the run, his absence would still put this defense in a bad spot as depth behind him is suspect. With all the injury questions, it is tough to expect this suspect Chargers run defense to repeat their success from last week--especially against what is still an average Raiders offensive line even if they are also down a couple of starters.

Raiders Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Derek Carr has this Raiders passing offense rolling as he has now thrown for at least 280 yards and multiple touchdowns in three straight weeks with no turnovers in back-to-back weeks. A strong running game has taken some pressure off Carr and this passing offense, allowing him to attempt an average of just 30 passes per game over these past three weeks since the Week 6 bye. Carr has also spread the ball around well as he has completed passes to eight and nine different players in each of the past two weeks. Rookie Hunter Renfroe has been the top volume wide receiver over the past two weeks as he has led the team in receptions in both games with a touchdown in back-to-back games. Renfroe hadn’t done much until these past two games and his snap count is still hovering around just 50 percent, so keep expectations relatively low. Both Tyrell Williams and tight end Darren Waller had quiet games last week, but there should be no worries about either as they are both integral pieces of this passing offense while Williams could get a few extra looks this week squaring off against his former team.

Casey Hayward continues to impress as he anchors this Los Angeles passing defense and is a big reason why they are allowing just the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. While they had the advantage of some soft passing offenses over the past few weeks, this defense proved themselves against Packers last week as they absolutely shut down Aaron Rodgers and their entire offense. Hayward did an excellent job in coverage limiting Davante Adams to just 41 yards on seven receptions. A team’s top receiver has exceeded 70 yards just once in the past four games under strong coverage from Hayward. Both he and Desmond King will make it tough on Raiders receivers this week. The Chargers have also done a solid job defending against tight ends, as the position has found the end zone in just one game while a team’s lead tight end has exceeded 30 yards in just two games. This defensive line is also coming around as they have nine sacks in their last three games after accounting for just 11 sacks over the first six weeks of the season. While this Raiders passing offense has some momentum, they should be in for a challenge with tough matchups all around this week.

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.3)31 (+7.3)31 (+6.7)30 (+6.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+16.0)32 (+15.9)32 (+14.4)32 (+15.6)
7Aaron Rodgers5425314295026148.148.143.846.8
8Deshaun Watson832739279301046030.630.627.827.8
9Matthew Stafford7126414063136031.931.925.829.8

Philip Rivers (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $5500)

7@ TEN6424383292000024.524.521.224.2
8@ CHI4519292011100013.
9vs GB7121282940030014.714.711.811.8
10PROJ-Dodds24372821.8111020.420.420.4 (H=49)20.4 (H=67)
10PROJ-Tremblay23362691.71220. (H=48)20.1 (H=65)
10PROJ-Bloom24312882.10.6110.122.922.922.9 (H=60)22.9 (H=82)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.8)17 (+0.2)17 (+0.0)17 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.7)25 (+4.5)24 (+3.9)25 (+3.9)
7Aaron Jones34125004433114.318.316.318.3
7Jamaal Williams24350542619.
8Duke Johnson37310543319.413.411.413.4
8Carlos Hyde431983010008.
9J.D. McKissic2743204340113.216.214.716.2
9Ty Johnson44929033703.

Melvin Gordon (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4600)

7@ TEN341632032.0-318.910.97.99.9
8@ CHI25831132.0309.411.410.411.4
9vs GB452080243.029022.925.924.425.9
10PROJ-Dodds14540.52.8200.11113.812.4 (H=23)13.8 (H=40)
10PROJ-Tremblay12450.43.0220.19.712.711.2 (H=19)12.7 (H=35)
10PROJ-Bloom17690.83.0180.214.717.716.2 (H=37)17.7 (H=63)

Austin Ekeler (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5500)

7@ TEN3857087.0118118.525.522.028.5
8@ CHI2433032.01918.
9vs GB241270044.02309.313.311.313.3
10PROJ-Dodds7270.24.3400.29.113.411.3 (H=21)13.4 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay7280.23.3290. (H=16)11.4 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom8340.25.0490.512.517.515.0 (H=34)17.5 (H=51)

Justin Jackson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3400)

7@ TEN000000.000000.00.0
8@ CHI000000.000000.00.0
9vs GB527011.0701.
10PROJ-Dodds1500.75011.71.4 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay1500.8601.11.91.5 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.3)31 (+7.5)31 (+7.3)31 (+8.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+10.9)32 (+12.4)32 (+11.7)32 (+15.4)
7Marquez Valdes-Scantling2032133100019.321.320.324.3
7Jake Kumerow432254100011.413.412.413.4
8DeAndre Hopkins801311109000010.921.916.424.9
8DeAndre Carter47314600004.
9Kenny Golladay5874132100019.
9Marvin Jones63108126100018.626.622.629.6

Keenan Allen (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6100)

7@ TEN60114.06100006.
8@ CHI31107.05300005.312.38.812.3
9vs GB6243.0400000475.57.0
10PROJ-Dodds6.1750.500010.516.613.6 (H=26)16.6 (H=42)
10PROJ-Tremblay6.4840.500011.417.814.6 (H=30)17.8 (H=48)
10PROJ-Bloom6.0710.500010.116.113.1 (H=24)16.1 (H=40)

Mike Williams (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

7@ TEN6164.04700004.
8@ CHI4363.06900006.
9vs GB6543.0111012011.314.312.817.3
10PROJ-Dodds3.7620.40008.612.310.5 (H=19)12.3 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.8600.30107.911.79.8 (H=17)11.7 (H=31)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0710.500010.114.112.1 (H=25)14.1 (H=43)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+3.5)30 (+3.7)30 (+3.7)30 (+3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.2)28 (+6.2)29 (+5.8)28 (+6.0)
7Jimmy Graham334465112.516.514.516.5
8Darren Fells756658217.823.820.823.8
9T.J. Hockenson46735605.

Hunter Henry (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5500)

7@ TEN5886.09709.715.712.715.7
8@ CHI3964.04704.
9vs GB55107.08408.415.411.915.4
10PROJ-Dodds5.7700.51015.712.8 (H=23)15.7 (H=42)
10PROJ-Tremblay5.0620. (H=20)14.2 (H=36)
10PROJ-Bloom6.0790.410.316.313.3 (H=25)16.3 (H=45)

Virgil Green (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ TEN1211.0900.
8@ CHI1311.0100121.52.0
9vs GB2400.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.0100121.5 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.660. (H=1)1.8 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (+0.0)13 (+0.0)13 (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.0)17 (+0.0)16T (-0.4) (+0.0)
7Mason Crosby0066666.06.0
8Kaimi Fairbairn22339910.010.0
9Matt Prater1133666.06.0

Mike Badgley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ TEN0000000.00.0
8@ CHI0000000.00.0
9vs GB4522141416.016.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.5)1 (-3.5)2 (-4.0)2 (-4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-5.1)1 (-5.1)1 (-6.5)1 (-6.5)
7Green Bay Packers2448401100442.02.0
8Houston Texans2437800000000.00.0
9Detroit Lions3145010000110.00.0

Los Angeles Chargers (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2700)

7@ TEN23.0040321000444.04.0
8@ CHI16.0038841100889.09.0
9vs GB11.0018430000337.07.0
10PROJ-Dodds23.8037520.70.600. (H=16)7.3 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay23.253532.10.90.600.4888.0 (H=19)8.0 (H=27)

Chargers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.6)6 (-3.7)7 (-3.4)7 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-6.0)6 (-6.1)7 (-5.4)7 (-5.5)
6Devlin Hodges6015201321138010.410.49.19.1
7Ryan Tannehill6423293122157023.323.320.223.2
8Mitchell Trubisky82233525301410012.712.78.19.1
9Aaron Rodgers5423351611015012.612.612.912.9

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5600)

7@ GB5922282932120021.721.716.717.7
8@ HOU5618302853000026.326.323.423.4
9vs DET7220312892000022.522.519.619.6
10PROJ-Dodds23332541.60.613018.818.818.8 (H=44)18.8 (H=57)
10PROJ-Tremblay21332421.50.914017.617.617.6 (H=39)17.6 (H=51)
10PROJ-Bloom23322431.70.500018.518.518.5 (H=42)18.5 (H=55)

Chargers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.4)23 (+1.2)24 (+1.8)24 (+1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.8)27 (+4.9)25 (+4.7)26 (+5.1)
6James Conner30164117778123.930.927.430.9
6Benny Snell2917750111408.
7Derrick Henry48229011118016.817.817.317.8
7Dion Lewis1712010000.
8David Montgomery602713515412020.724.722.727.7
8Tarik Cohen17490333704.
9Jamaal Williams2421006639110.916.913.916.9
9Aaron Jones32830041-

Josh Jacobs (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5700)

7@ GB3721124033.010013.416.414.919.4
8@ HOU311566022.01508.
9vs DET4228120220.000242424.027.0
10PROJ-Dodds19880.61.7130.114.31615.2 (H=28)16.0 (H=42)
10PROJ-Tremblay17760.51.512011.813.312.6 (H=20)13.3 (H=31)
10PROJ-Bloom20930.82.0100.115.717.716.7 (H=34)17.7 (H=50)

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3100)

7@ GB14629011.01204.
8@ HOU9523011.0402.
9vs DET737011.02102.
10PROJ-Dodds5190.11.1803.34.43.9 (H=4)4.4 (H=8)
10PROJ-Tremblay5190.11.1903.44.54.0 (H=4)4.5 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom3901.0801.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

7@ GB1522011.0500.
8@ HOU1713032.02402.
9vs DET24212043.05606.
10PROJ-Dodds280.11.61302.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
10PROJ-Tremblay290.11.71402.94.63.8 (H=4)4.6 (H=7)
10PROJ-Bloom2802.0230. (H=5)5.7 (H=11)

Chargers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.5)9 (-3.9)8 (-3.5)8 (-4.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-5.5)9 (-5.3)9 (-5.3)8 (-6.4)
6Diontae Johnson42221400001.
6Donte Moncrief14211100001.
7Corey Davis487680100014.
7Tajae Sharpe25321910007.
8Anthony Miller42336700006.
8Allen Robinson73756200006.211.28.711.2
9Allen Lazard25434400004.
9Davante Adams451174100004.111.17.611.1

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5700)

7@ GB000.000000000.00.0
8@ HOU5063.091100015.118.116.618.1
9vs DET5943.04800004.
10PROJ-Dodds3.7550.40007.911.69.8 (H=16)11.6 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.3490.30006.7108.4 (H=12)10.0 (H=18)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0590.50008.912.910.9 (H=19)12.9 (H=29)

Hunter Renfrow (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3700)

7@ GB3032.01400001.
8@ HOU3644.088100014.818.816.818.8
9vs DET3976.054100011.417.414.417.4
10PROJ-Dodds3.3350.20004.786.4 (H=8)8.0 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.7350.20004.77.46.1 (H=7)7.4 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0470.40007.112.19.6 (H=17)12.1 (H=40)

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3300)

7@ GB000.000000000.00.0
8@ HOU2222.02700002.
9vs DET6643.02101302.
10PROJ-Dodds2.2240.20003.65.84.7 (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.8220.20103.55.34.4 (H=5)5.3 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0260.10003.26.24.7 (H=6)6.2 (H=14)

Trevor Davis (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

7@ GB5022.02600002.
8@ HOU2621.01501-
9vs DET100.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.6600000.61.21.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.4500200.71.11.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Chargers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.2)9 (-2.5)12 (-1.8)9 (-2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.3)2 (-6.2)2 (-5.2)2 (-6.4)
6Nick Vannett3711500.
7Jonnu Smith53336406.
8Trey Burton49411601.
9Jimmy Graham35441701.

Darren Waller (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6100)

7@ GB6187.0126224.631.628.134.6
8@ HOU5482.01117.
9vs DET5722.05205.
10PROJ-Dodds6.0670. (H=22)15.1 (H=36)
10PROJ-Tremblay5.6650.48.914.511.7 (H=20)14.5 (H=33)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0630.48.713.711.2 (H=19)13.7 (H=30)

Foster Moreau (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2600)

7@ GB3232.02418.410.49.410.4
8@ HOU2221.0100121.52.0
9vs DET3721.0316.
10PROJ-Dodds1.6180.234.63.8 (H=4)4.6 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.7170. (H=4)4.6 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ GB2142.02202.
8@ HOU600.000000.00.0
9vs DET1000.0002.
10PROJ-Dodds0.9900.91.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Chargers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-1.9)6 (-1.9)6 (-1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-1.0)11T (-1.0)13T (-1.0) (+0.0)
6Chris Boswell1133666.06.0
7Cody Parkey1123556.06.0
8Eddy Pineiro3511101010.010.0
9Mason Crosby1100335.05.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ GB1133667.07.0
8@ HOU1133667.07.0
9vs DET1244777.07.0

Chargers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.6)13T (-0.6)12 (-1.1)12 (-1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.0)18 (+0.0)15 (-1.1)15 (-1.1)
6Pittsburgh Steelers1734812101191914.014.0
7Tennessee Titans2036510100334.04.0
8Chicago Bears1723111000334.04.0
9Green Bay Packers2644220000222.02.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ GB42.004811000011-3.0-3.0
8@ HOU27.0038830000333.03.0
9vs DET24.0047321100666.06.0
10PROJ-Dodds24.0037120.90.600. (H=19)7.7 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay24.253512.310.600. (H=21)8.2 (H=30)