Matchup Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Ravens 27, Bengals 18

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense31.4 (+8.8) (1)205 (+93) (1)222 (-16) (20)
Bengals Defense26.2 (+3.7) (24)178 (+65) (32)258 (+19) (22)

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense15.5 (-7.1) (29)60 (-52) (32)258 (+19) (11)
Ravens Defense22.0 (-0.6) (16)83 (-28) (2)266 (+27) (26)

Ravens Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

The Ravens continue to run roughshod over the NFL on the ground, leading the league in both yardage (per attempt and per game) and touchdowns. It’s headed by quarterback Lamar Jackson, whose option game makes up a hefty portion of the team’s base attack. Dating back to Week 2, Jackson has taken on 14 carries a game, and his blend of speed, quickness, and instinct simply baffles defenses. He’s produced 6.6 yards per rush over that span, and with newfound red-zone usage, he’s already found the end zone 5 times. Mark Ingram mostly matches Jackson carry-for-carry, which leaves him a bit behind the fantasy RB1 pack in terms of volume. But he’s been plenty effective, posting 5.1 yards per carry and holding off Gus Edwards for the lead role. All of these talented runners work behind a strong run-blocking line, one designed to spring them through holes with both power and creativity. And this week brings one of 2019’s most profound mismatches against the soft run defense of the Bengals. Jackson, Ingram, and company should have little problem turning high volume into big production.

For most of the past two seasons, the Bengals have fielded one of football’s two or three worst run defenses. This year’s version has reached a new low, giving up the league’s most ground yardage both per carry and per game. They’ve allowed four 90-yard rushers over their last 4 games, with 2 of those topping 130. This talent-starved, low-impact unit simply doesn’t boast much in terms of playmaking. Andrew Billings and Geno Atkins headline a solid tackle rotation, and Carlos Dunlap is strong in setting the edge. But linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown lack in speed and pursuit, and the safeties tend to play relatively deep and soft against the run. As a result, dynamic runners like Lamar Jackson and Leonard Fournette are often on a different athletic level in this matchup. It’s not uncommon for opposing offenses to steamroll this unit, with game flow on their side and a number of runners succeeding all at once.

Ravens Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Lamar Jackson has been the toast of 2019 thus far. His rushing skills are obvious, but his improvisation skills and live arm have made for a dynamic air attack as well. This Ravens offense is definitively ground-based, running the ball at the league’s third-highest rate, but there’s enough play volume and playmaking ability here for Jackson to post big numbers in any matchup. They’re at their best with speedy rookie Marquise Brown on the field, and he seems to be over his minor ankle injury (40 snaps last week). Brown has been kept under wraps of late, with just 141 yards over his last 4 games, but is always involved when Jackson is throwing. The same goes for explosive tight end Mark Andrews, the other big piece of this passing game. Andrews has drawn 7+ targets in 7 of his 8 games, and he’s put up 99+ yards 3 times. Jackson will look Brown’s and Andrews’ way often while game flow calls for it, and both are capable of big things on every touch. There’s not much to look at elsewhere, though, where Willie Snead, Seth Roberts, and the backup tight ends see very sporadic usage.

The Bengals haven’t given up much raw passing yardage here in 2019 - just 266 per game. But that’s come far more through game flow than through smothering defensive play. The 0-8 Bengals’ opponents simply don’t have to throw much, but when they do, they put up plenty of efficiency (a league-high 8.3 net yards per attempt). Case in point: in Week 8, Jared Goff and the Rams’ up-and-down pass game put up 372 yards and 2 touchdowns over just 31 dropbacks. Cooper Kupp dominated B.W. Webb in the slot, racking up 220 yards and a long score, while the outside men repeatedly won downfield and after the catch. Cornerback William Jackson has been a liability all year - he’s a big reason this unit has already allowed 12 different receivers to top 65 yards. He gets little help from safeties Jessie Bates and Shawn Williams, both of whom have regressed mightily since last season. The result is shaky coverage on the boundaries and tons of open space between the downfield zones. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ playmakers project nicely against this porous group.

Bengals Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Joe Mixon is drastically overqualified for this lackluster Bengals offense. Mixon boasts one of the best athletic profiles in the game, an electric speedster at over 220 pounds. He’s looked spry and done his best to maximize the situation, but there a lot of roadblocks here. His front line is solidly one of the league’s worst, currently ranked 31st by Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti.

The team’s punchless passing game doesn’t help matters, and if Andy Dalton couldn’t grease the wheels, it’s unlikely rookie Ryan Finley will. Mixon is likely facing a Week 10 (and beyond) of smashing helplessly into his line more often than not. He’ll always carry upside as one of football’s most dynamic runners, but that ceiling is often too hard to find, and his floor has been devastating. He’s only topped 70 yards once in 7 full games, and he’s been held below 20 in 3 of those.

The Ravens run defense has spent 2019 in transition, but continues to dominate on a regular basis. Losing stalwarts C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, and Eric Weddle in the offseason - as well as a few starters mid-year - has barely been noticed in the results. Their only hiccup thus far came back in Week 4, when Nick Chubb rode a handful of long runs into 165 yards and 3 touchdowns. Aside from that game, they’ve allowed running backs just 3.5 yards per carry and 54 per game. When these two teams squared off in Week 6, Joe Mixon managed just 10 yards on 8 attempts. Clearly, this isn’t a matchup to test in fantasy, especially this week. Mixon’s best-case scenario is to break off a chunk run or two; he likely won’t find much room against this front seven. Down linemen Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams are dominant space-eaters who set the table for the linebackers to roam freely. Linebackers Josh Bynes and L.J. Fort have excelled in recent weeks, sharing Mosley’s role to a much better degree than expected. And Chuck Clark has stepped in nicely for injured safety Tony Jefferson to boot. Simply put, there isn’t much reason to believe in the Bengals’ low-impact attack this week.

Bengals Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Andy Dalton has mercifully been benched, likely bringing an end to an eight-year era of mediocrity. Dalton doesn’t deserve nearly all the blame for his nightmarish 2019, but he simply isn’t good enough to overcome the Bengals’ many woes and make a difference. It makes more sense to sample rookie Ryan Finley’s outlook over the second half of an 0-8 season. Like Dalton before him, Finley doesn’t project as a dynamic NFL passer, with an average arm and mobility. And it’s hard to expect much success working in the same punchless situation that broke Dalton. The Bengals have produced just 6.7 yards per attempt and 9 touchdowns on the year. Finley will operate behind arguably the league’s worst front line; Dalton took 29 sacks through his 8 games. Injuries and Cordy Glenn’s messy situation have set up another patchwork group that can’t stop anyone from collapsing the pocket. Finley will likely have A.J. Green available for the first time all year, which certainly helps. The nine-year veteran doesn’t need to ease back in, and his downfield playmaking has been sorely missed all year. Tyler Boyd will slip back into his natural role as a slot man and No. 2 option. Last year, Boyd drew 22% of team targets and averaged 78 yards over 8 games next to Green. With Finley making his debut, and no idea as to where he’ll be looking, it’s hard to get excited about any of the peripheral options. Alex Erickson and Auden Tate have flashed big-play ability, though, and they’ll share outside snaps opposite Green. All in all, though, there’s not much intrigue here beyond Green and Boyd, and Finley is firmly hands-off in fantasy.

The Ravens pass defense opened the year in horrendous fashion, but it’s settled down noticeably of late. Over the past 4 weeks, they’ve taken care of business in strong matchups with the Steelers and Bengals, then stifled both Russell Wilson and Tom Brady (a combined 6.0 yards per attempt and 2 touchdowns). The cornerback group has been restocked, with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters making for an imposing duo on the outside. Humphrey is sharpening into one of the game’s brightest young cover men, and both are dynamic playmakers on the ball. At safety, Earl Thomas has provided an upgrade on stalwart Eric Weddle, and Chuck Clark has filled in admirably for injured starter Tony Jefferson. This is a big-play unit, and lapses will happen - three quarterbacks shredded them for 340+ yards early in the year. But overall, this group seems to have turned a corner. It’s certainly not advised to test this group with the Bengals’ low-impact, rookie-led offense.

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.5)25 (+3.5)27 (+4.4)25 (+3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+6.3)28 (+6.2)29 (+6.9)30 (+7.8)
6Lamar Jackson8121332360019152133.033.030.633.6
7Gardner Minshew82153225510948021.621.621.021.0
8Jared Goff6217313722000026.626.622.925.9

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $7300)

7@ SEA599201430014116124.824.823.326.3
9vs NE701723163101661230.330.328.628.6
10PROJ-Dodds19302401.60.713720.527.927.927.9 (H=74)27.9 (H=87)
10PROJ-Tremblay18292161.30.814840.627.227.227.2 (H=71)27.2 (H=83)
10PROJ-Bloom17222051.80.68440.624.824.824.8 (H=60)24.8 (H=71)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.2)31 (+7.3)31 (+7.0)30 (+7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.3)9 (-4.2)12 (-2.4)11 (-3.8)
6Mark Ingram31135213222013.415.414.415.4
6Gus Edwards33634000003.
7Leonard Fournette742913102214014.516.515.519.5
7Ryquell Armstead733010000.
8Todd Gurley3210441100010.410.410.410.4
8Darrell Henderson3011490322006.

Mark Ingram (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7100)

7@ SEA301246011.0705.
9vs NE3115115032.029014.416.413.418.4
10PROJ-Dodds14680.71.816012.614.413.5 (H=22)14.4 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay15730.61.512012.113.612.9 (H=20)13.6 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom15740.82.0150.114.316.315.3 (H=28)16.3 (H=35)

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4800)

7@ SEA22835000.0003.
9vs NE28727100.0008.
10PROJ-Dodds6300.10.0003.63.63.6 (H=3)3.6 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay8350.20.43055.45.2 (H=7)5.4 (H=7)
10PROJ-Bloom11510.50.0008.18.18.1 (H=15)8.1 (H=15)

Justice Hill (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3700)

7@ SEA400000.000000.00.0
9vs NE1037010.0000.
10PROJ-Dodds3120.10.6402.22.82.6 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay3120.10.7602.43.12.8 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom280.10.0001.41.41.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.5)13 (-1.3)15 (-0.0)14 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+7.6)25 (+6.8)30 (+8.0)29 (+8.5)
6Miles Boykin45322800002.
6Seth Roberts33222300002.
7Dede Westbrook54961030214011.717.714.720.7
7Chris Conley57838300008.311.311.813.3
8Cooper Kupp60107220100028.035.031.538.0
8Josh Reynolds55837311-1013.216.214.716.2

Marquise Brown (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $5100)

7@ SEA000.000000000.00.0
9vs NE4043.04800004.
10PROJ-Dodds3.8600.40008.412.210.3 (H=21)12.2 (H=29)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.8550.30007.311.19.2 (H=17)11.1 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0640.5170.110.714.712.7 (H=30)14.7 (H=41)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4000)

7@ SEA3710.0001200.
9vs NE4222.01500001.
10PROJ-Dodds1.8240.100034.83.9 (H=4)4.8 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.7230.10002.94.63.8 (H=4)4.6 (H=7)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0250.30004.36.35.3 (H=7)6.3 (H=12)

Miles Boykin (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

7@ SEA3222.05500005.
9vs NE2710.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.0150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.8110.10001.72.52.1 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom1.0110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ SEA1941.0900000.
9vs NE3010.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.1130.10001.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.0)4 (-3.4)4 (-2.9)4 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.8)10 (-3.5)7 (-3.8)7 (-4.0)
6Mark Andrews39869909.915.910.914.9
7Geoff Swaim000000.
8Gerald Everett30321501.

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5200)

7@ SEA3482.03903.
9vs NE2432.02102.
10PROJ-Dodds4.6610.48.513.110.8 (H=18)13.1 (H=33)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.6550.47.912.510.2 (H=16)12.5 (H=30)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0590.58.912.910.9 (H=18)12.9 (H=32)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ SEA4011.0200232.53.0
9vs NE5955.02718.713.711.213.7
10PROJ-Dodds2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.9200. (H=5)5.1 (H=13)
10PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ SEA2721.0100121.52.0
9vs NE2922.01501.
10PROJ-Dodds1.7170.12.343.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=8)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.7170.12.343.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=6)5.4 (H=14)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.5)31 (+2.5)29T (+2.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+3.0)28T (+3.0)27 (+2.9) (+0.0)
6Justin Tucker3322111113.013.0
7Josh Lambo4411131313.013.0
8Greg Zuerlein1133666.06.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ SEA3333121212.012.0
9vs NE1145777.07.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.5)25 (+1.5)26T (+2.8)26T (+2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.6)22 (+1.6)26 (+3.2)26 (+3.2)
6Baltimore Ravens1725021000445.05.0
7Jacksonville Jaguars1729123101161617.017.0
8Los Angeles Rams1040150000559.09.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

7@ SEA16.0034711102232318.018.0
9vs NE20.0034221101181813.013.0
10PROJ-Dodds18.403272.51.20.800.511.211.211.2 (H=26)11.2 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay18.003452.41.20.900.511.311.311.3 (H=26)11.3 (H=33)

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.9)9 (-1.9)12 (-1.5)9 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.4)9 (-3.5)11 (-3.2)9 (-4.3)
6Andy Dalton6221392350112117.017.014.614.6
7Russell Wilson72204124111327017.817.815.315.3
9Tom Brady6730462851100017.317.314.414.4

Ryan Finley (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4800)

7vs JAX000000000000.00.0
8@ LAR000000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds23392541.31.2270.1181818.0 (H=47)18.0 (H=62)
10PROJ-Tremblay22372581.31.2280.118.318.318.3 (H=48)18.3 (H=64)
10PROJ-Bloom17331460.91.5250.110.510.510.5 (H=18)10.5 (H=24)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.3)8 (-2.5)9 (-1.6)8 (-2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-6.5)3 (-7.8)6 (-6.8)3 (-8.4)
6Joe Mixon308100322903.
6Giovani Bernard33440322002.
7Chris Carson642165053907.410.48.910.4
7C.J. Prosise6117000001.
9James White2893813246014.416.415.416.4
9Rex Burkhead244180211603.

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4700)

7vs JAX39102021.0216.
8@ LAR421766044.011113.717.715.717.7
10PROJ-Dodds14530.32.1140. (H=18)11.2 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay15600.32.1150.19.91211.0 (H=20)12.0 (H=31)
10PROJ-Bloom12440.23.0160.28.411.49.9 (H=17)11.4 (H=28)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs JAX3440032.0400.
8@ LAR33331022.01404.
10PROJ-Dodds4130.12.01503.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=9)
10PROJ-Tremblay4150.12.11603.75.84.8 (H=6)5.8 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom3802.0100. (H=3)4.4 (H=6)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+1.6)24 (+3.6)20 (+2.0)23 (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+1.0)21 (+4.9)17 (+1.7)21 (+3.2)
6Auden Tate561259100009.114.111.614.1
6Alex Erickson496447011706.410.48.410.4
7Tyler Lockett71756111-3011.816.814.316.8
7Jaron Brown43636000006.
9Mohamed Sanu67141081100014.
9Julian Edelman6711108900008.918.911.917.9

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4700)

7vs JAX71145.05500005.510.56.09.5
8@ LAR7596.06501306.812.89.812.8
10PROJ-Dodds5.1550.30007.312.49.9 (H=18)12.4 (H=33)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.5530.20106.611.18.9 (H=15)11.1 (H=27)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0420.20005.410.47.9 (H=12)10.4 (H=24)

Auden Tate (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs JAX6563.06500006.
8@ LAR81135.06500006.511.59.011.5
10PROJ-Dodds3.2470.20005.99.17.5 (H=12)9.1 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.4490.20006.19.57.8 (H=13)9.5 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0410.20005.38.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=19)

A.J. Green (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $6000)

7vs JAX000.000000000.00.0
8@ LAR000.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds3.1410.20005.38.46.9 (H=8)8.4 (H=13)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.8420.20005.48.26.8 (H=8)8.2 (H=12)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs JAX68148.013702-2013.521.517.524.5
8@ LAR5076.09700009.715.712.715.7
10PROJ-Dodds2.7310.113046.75.4 (H=7)6.8 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.9410.21305.68.57.1 (H=11)8.6 (H=21)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0230.10002.94.94.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=8)

Stanley Morgan (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs JAX000.000000000.00.0
8@ LAR1511.0300000.
10PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.3400000.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.0)7 (-2.8)6 (-2.4)7 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-4.8)3 (-5.4)3 (-5.1)3 (-5.6)
6C.J. Uzomah27322602.
7Jacob Hollister37632002.
9Ben Watson67542802.

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs JAX3422.0100132.03.0
8@ LAR6096.07407.413.410.413.4
10PROJ-Dodds2.5220. (H=5)5.9 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.4230. (H=5)5.9 (H=14)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0140.1243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=7)

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs JAX3100.000000.00.0
8@ LAR4721.0400.
10PROJ-Dodds1.2130. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Drew Sample (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs JAX1211.0300.
8@ LAR700.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.3400.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+1.5)28 (+1.5)24T (+1.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+0.7)20T (+0.7)18T (-0.1) (+0.0)
6Randy Bullock1122555.05.0
7Jason Myers3411101010.010.0
9Nick Folk2222888.08.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs JAX1122555.05.0
8@ LAR1111444.04.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-1.4)11T (-1.4)6 (-2.7)6 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.7)14 (-1.7)10T (-2.1)10T (-2.1)
6Cincinnati Bengals2349710101999.09.0
7Seattle Seahawks3034010000112.02.0
9New England Patriots3737210200554.04.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $1700)

7vs JAX27.0046020000222.02.0
8@ LAR24.0047000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds28.604231.90.70.500. (H=11)5.3 (H=21)
10PROJ-Tremblay28.004211.90.80.500. (H=13)5.7 (H=23)