Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 17, Colts 27

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense12.9 (-9.7) (30)64 (-47) (31)198 (-39) (29)
Colts Defense22.1 (-0.4) (17)108 (-3) (18)231 (-7) (15)

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense22.8 (+0.2) (16)130 (+18) (9)214 (-24) (23)
Dolphins Defense32.0 (+9.4) (32)151 (+39) (31)252 (+13) (20)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Colts defense.

As if things were not bad enough for the Dolphins rushing offense, try taking away both top running backs to see how things fare for this group. That is exactly what has happened within the past few days as Kenyan Drake was traded away just after Week 8, and his top candidate for replacement, Mark Walton, has now been suspended four weeks for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. This should leave the three-down role to Kallen Ballage unless the Dolphins add another running back before this week’s game. Ballage has worked as no more than a clear second running back for this offense, and he has truly done little to inspire any confidence that he can have success in a lead back role--averaging 2.7 yards per carry or fewer in all but one game this season. With what is close to the worst run-blocking offensive line in football and Kallen Ballage at the helm of this backfield, keep expectations extremely low for the Dolphins rushing offense.

The Colts limited the Steelers to just 90 rushing yards last week as they were, for the most part, suffocating in run defense. While Trey Edmunds broke off one long 45-yard run, there were virtually no yards to be had on the ground beyond that one play. The Colts have now given up an average of just 80 rushing yards per game just one rushing touchdown to running backs in their past six games, fueling their ranking of allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game (non-PPR) to opposing running backs since Week 3. Linebacker Darius Leonard remains the rock of this defense, playing almost a bit too physical last week as he was rung up for two costly unnecessary roughness penalties. Interior defender Denico Autry has been excellent at plugging holes on the line, while safety Malik Hooker has been a valuable asset against the run since returning from injury in Week 8. Overall, this group has a very clear advantage over a woeful Dolphins rushing offense.

Dolphins Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has somewhat reinvigorated this struggling Dolphins passing offense, passing for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and exceeding 280 passing yards in two of his last three games since taking over as the starter. Just as this team got its first win and things were at least starting to look up, they were hit with a couple of tough losses of key offensive weapons. Running back Mark Walton has been suspended for the next four games, which should open up more passing opportunities for Kallen Ballage--which may not actually be a good thing as Ballage has looked terrible trying to catch the ball this season. The bigger loss for this offense was the season-ending injury to rookie Preston Williams. Williams had been the leading wide receiver and comes off his best game yet with two touchdowns last week. Filling the void will primarily be DeVante Parker, who has actually been quite productive with four touchdowns in his past five games. Parker has been historically unreliable, but he could be seeing quite an uptick in targets that should afford him the opportunity to contribute in a big way this week.

The Colts passing defense has been littered with inconsistency throughout the season. In half of their games against above-average passing offenses, they have given up an average of over 310 passing yards per game and a total of eight passing touchdowns. In the other half of their games against underwhelming passing offenses, this group has limited quarterbacks to an average of just 177 passing yards per game and four total touchdowns. This defense certainly has some talent to lean on with Justin Houston rushing the quarterback and Malik Hooker watching over the secondary at free safety. Both have proven to be playmakers for this defense. Cornerback has been a weakness though, as Pierre Desir and Rock Ya-Sin have been underwhelming in coverage. Desir has been dealing with an ongoing knee injury but appears likely to play this week. That may not be the best of things though, as while Desir has struggled, his replacement--rookie Marvell Tell--has played two excellent games. Whether it is Desir or Tell, however, DeVante Parker should still have a slight advantage here. The rest of the Dolphins passing offense, including their offensive line, should be at a disadvantage against this relatively well-rounded passing defense that has proven to be more than capable of shutting down questionable passing offenses.

Colts Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Marlon Mack saw another high-volume outing last week, driven in part due to the injury to quarterback Jacoby Brissett--who is shaping up to be a game-time decision for this week. With or without Brissett, the Colts want to get Mack going. He has seen 18 or more carries in six of eight games and has very limited competition for touches on the ground. Mack has had a few big games of 132 and 174 yards on the ground, but he has also put up a few stinkers with fewer than 50 rushing yards in a couple of outings. Overall, however, Mack has been a productive running back who is due for a few more touchdowns on the ground given his high workload. The Indianapolis offensive line remains healthy and has consistently been ranked near the top-five by Footballguys offensive line expert Matt Bitonti.

The Dolphins defense did a decent job against the Jets rushing offense last week, limiting Le’Veon Bell to just 66 yards on 17 carries. However, the Jets offense seems to be in even worse shape than this Miami offense, which certainly tarnishes the shine on last week’s showing from the Dolphins defense. This remains a very exploitable unit that has been gashed time and time again when facing competent offenses. They have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game (non-PPR) to running backs and allowed 12 more rushing yards per game to the position (135 total, most in the league) than any other team. This group has a dearth of playmakers and no consistent run-stoppers to lean on within this front seven. The top-tier Colts offensive line should have absolutely no problem making space for Marlon Mack, and given the high volume Mack typically garners, he certainly could be in for a big day.

Colts Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

The Colts passing offense was shaken up last week with the knee injury that sidelined Jacoby Brissett for three-quarters of play. Brian Hoyer played decent in relief, but he showed terrible awareness in the pocket while taking four sacks, losing a fumble, and tossing an interception returned 96 yards for a touchdown. Hoyer did make some good plays and threw for three touchdowns, but if he were to start this week, the outlook for this passing offense can in no way be a positive one. Jacoby Brissett was diagnosed with a sprained MCL and actually is reported to have a shot at playing--so keep a close eye on the injury news for a pulse on this situation. Speaking of injury news, the condition of top receiver T.Y. Hilton must also continue to be monitored as he remains questionable with a calf injury. Rookie receiver Parris Campbell was also injured last week and has now been ruled out for several weeks. If Hilton misses time again, Zach Pascal--who was the top receiver last week-- should easily lead the way for this receiving group as he looked good last week. Production between Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron continues to be unpredictable, but Doyle continues to play significantly more snaps than Ebron and has been the better of the two tight ends in each of the past two games.

The Dolphins passing defense had their best game of the season last week, however, it happened to be against what has been one of the worst offenses in the league in recent weeks as the Jets have made almost any defense look elite. This Miami team has struggled mightily against the pass all season long and continues hover near the top of the list in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. Edge rusher Vince Biegel looks to be an improving piece of this defensive line, but he and the rest of his linemen should have a very tough time getting to the quarterback against the stout Colts offensive line. The secondary for Miami is just flat out bad and has struggled to cover most receivers and tight ends this season. All Colts receivers have great matchups here, as do the tight ends as this secondary is giving up an average of 57 receiving yards per game to the position despite facing few teams that actually use their tight ends regularly in the passing game. The only downgrade to watch for will be if Brian Hoyer does get the start, which would, of course, give this Miami secondary a much better chance at success.

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.6)10 (-1.7)14 (-1.4)13 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-6.3)5 (-6.4)5 (-5.8)6 (-5.9)
7Deshaun Watson65233430812332020.620.617.520.5
8Joe Flacco732032174001909.
9Mason Rudolph6326351911135013.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5200)

7@ BUF73233528211613124.424.421.621.6
8@ PIT60213419022517017.217.213.314.3
9vs NYJ6924362883052026.626.623.723.7
10PROJ-Dodds21342381.21.23100. (H=38)17.1 (H=52)
10PROJ-Tremblay18312081.11380. (H=31)15.2 (H=42)
10PROJ-Bloom19351831.214130.114.914.914.9 (H=30)14.9 (H=41)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.4)9 (-1.8)8 (-2.3)9 (-2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-4.0)15 (-1.3)11 (-3.0)14 (-2.2)
7Duke Johnson397340522205.
7Carlos Hyde261235010003.
8Royce Freeman3712401215010.511.511.011.5
8Phillip Lindsay3614590551707.612.610.112.6
9Jaylen Samuels40810013137308.321.312.820.3
9Trey Edmunds171273000007.

Kalen Ballage (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4500)

7@ BUF537100.0006.
8@ PIT1038011.01101.
9vs NYJ21719010.0001.
10PROJ-Dodds11360.32.2150. (H=18)9.7 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay11410.32.3170. (H=21)10.5 (H=26)
10PROJ-Bloom10310.51.0806.97.97.4 (H=13)7.9 (H=15)

Myles Gaskin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ BUF000000.000000.00.0
8@ PIT000000.000000.00.0
9vs NYJ000000.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds3130.11.2100. (H=5)4.7 (H=9)
10PROJ-Tremblay5210.12.2170.157.26.1 (H=10)7.2 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom3902.0901.83.82.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=6)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.2)11 (-2.4)12 (-1.6)13 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.7)10 (-4.5)11 (-3.5)12 (-3.5)
7DeAndre Hopkins65129106100016.625.621.128.6
7Kenny Stills6154105000010.514.512.517.5
8Courtland Sutton68637200007.210.28.710.2
8Diontae Spencer7221801502.
9James Washington27446900006.910.98.910.9
9JuJu Smith-Schuster47531600001.

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4800)

7@ BUF62105.055100011.516.514.016.5
8@ PIT4786.05900005.911.98.911.9
9vs NYJ5764.057100011.715.713.715.7
10PROJ-Dodds4.3610.40008.512.810.7 (H=20)12.8 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.3590.40008.312.610.5 (H=20)12.6 (H=33)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0630.60009.914.912.4 (H=27)14.9 (H=44)

Jakeem Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

7@ BUF700.000000000.00.0
8@ PIT1432.03200003.
9vs NYJ1453.03300003.
10PROJ-Dodds3.1340.20004.67.76.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=21)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.2370.20004.98.16.6 (H=11)8.2 (H=23)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0310.10003.76.75.3 (H=7)6.8 (H=17)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

7@ BUF1721.02200002.
8@ PIT1821.0510006.
9vs NYJ2521.0300000.
10PROJ-Dodds3.1320.20004.47.56.0 (H=9)7.5 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.7240.100034.73.9 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom1.040.1000121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ BUF2633.05300005.
8@ PIT2011.01210007.
9vs NYJ3032.01600001.
10PROJ-Dodds2.4300.10003.664.8 (H=6)6.0 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.6220.10002.84.43.6 (H=3)4.4 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0250.20003.76.75.2 (H=7)6.7 (H=17)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.2)25 (+2.4)25 (+1.8)25 (+2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.9)15 (-1.6)14 (-1.7)14 (-1.8)
7Darren Fells42222702.
8Noah Fant60852602.
9Vance McDonald51753019.014.011.514.0

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3100)

7@ BUF3344.04104.
8@ PIT3832.0100132.03.0
9vs NYJ4266.09509.515.512.515.5
10PROJ-Dodds3.2350. (H=9)7.9 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.6290. (H=7)6.7 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0430. (H=12)9.5 (H=31)

Durham Smythe (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ BUF3710.000000.00.0
8@ PIT2200.000000.00.0
9vs NYJ2500.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.4500.50.90.7 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.4)19T (+0.4)29T (+0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31T (+3.7)31T (+3.7)29 (+3.9) (+0.0)
7Kaimi Fairbairn3322111112.012.0
8Brandon McManus2211777.07.0
9Chris Boswell4422141416.016.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ BUF0033333.03.0
8@ PIT0022222.02.0
9vs NYJ1233666.06.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-0.1)18T (-0.1)17 (-0.8)17 (-0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.3)27 (+3.3)23 (+2.2)23 (+2.2)
7Houston Texans3038310110552.02.0
8Denver Broncos1531840100667.07.0
9Pittsburgh Steelers2432851211191919.019.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2400)

7@ BUF31.0030520000221.01.0
8@ PIT27.0039421000444.04.0
9vs NYJ18.0032131010778.08.0
10PROJ-Dodds27.2037820. (H=14)6.2 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay27.503782.31.10.500. (H=16)6.7 (H=22)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.8)27 (+3.8)28 (+4.4)26 (+4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.2)11 (-2.2)15 (-1.1)13 (-2.2)
6Case Keenum59132516620410017.317.315.615.6
7Josh Allen56162620220432021.321.321.321.3
8Mason Rudolph7720362512100019.619.617.017.0
9Sam Darnold7027392601121016.116.113.513.5

Brian Hoyer (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5900)

7vs HOU000000000000.00.0
8vs DEN000000000000.00.0
9@ PIT56172616831160202016.317.3
10PROJ-Dodds20322411.80.7260.119.719.719.7 (H=49)19.7 (H=59)
10PROJ-Tremblay17282061.50.93140.2181818.0 (H=42)18.0 (H=50)
10PROJ-Bloom21302502.11110.120.620.620.6 (H=53)20.6 (H=63)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.4)28 (+4.8)29 (+5.1)29 (+6.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.4)13 (-2.6)14 (-2.2)15 (-1.7)
6Adrian Peterson372311802218013.615.614.618.6
6Chris Thompson13312032802.
7Frank Gore3011550111106.
7Patrick DiMarco9140112703.
8James Conner64231451435021.024.022.527.0
8Benny Snell11513000001.
9LeVeon Bell63176609855012.
9Bilal Powell7216000001.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $7000)

7vs HOU541844033.01205.
8vs DEN391976111.0140151615.516.0
9@ PIT392189000.0008.
10PROJ-Dodds19850.71.514014.115.614.8 (H=28)15.6 (H=33)
10PROJ-Tremblay18810.51.1901213.112.6 (H=21)13.1 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom20910.61.08013.514.514.0 (H=26)14.5 (H=29)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4500)

7vs HOU913021.01301.
8vs DEN18412033.03404.
9@ PIT2017031.02102.
10PROJ-Dodds280.13.0250. (H=9)7.5 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay290.13.1250. (H=10)7.7 (H=15)
10PROJ-Bloom1402.0230. (H=5)5.3 (H=7)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs HOU1429011.0601.
8vs DEN625000.0000.
9@ PIT1416021.0601.
10PROJ-Dodds3130.10.6402.32.92.6 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay3140.10.7502.53.22.9 (H=2)3.2 (H=3)
10PROJ-Bloom7310.20.0004.34.34.3 (H=5)4.3 (H=6)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.4)21 (+2.9)25 (+3.8)21 (+2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+4.2)19 (+2.6)21 (+3.6)20 (+3.1)
6Terry McLaurin5774100200022.
6Kelvin Harmon1211800000.
7John Brown536583100014.319.316.819.3
7Cole Beasley31631610007.610.69.110.6
8JuJu Smith-Schuster5795103100016.321.318.824.3
8Diontae Johnson347584100014.419.416.919.4
9Jamison Crowder599883100014.322.318.322.3
9Robby Anderson67423300003.

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5300)

7vs HOU3676.0106200022.628.625.631.6
8vs DEN5921.0600000.
9@ PIT6765.076100013.618.616.118.6
10PROJ-Dodds3.4550.40007.911.39.7 (H=15)11.4 (H=25)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.5520.40007.611.19.4 (H=15)11.2 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0640.50009.414.412.0 (H=23)14.5 (H=38)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4100)

7vs HOU4122.02400002.
8vs DEN4021.0700000.
9@ PIT4653.02210008.211.27.710.2
10PROJ-Dodds3.5380.30005.69.17.4 (H=12)9.2 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.1410.30005.997.5 (H=12)9.1 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0480.50007.811.89.9 (H=20)11.9 (H=35)

Deon Cain (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs HOU3200.000000000.00.0
8vs DEN000.000000000.00.0
9@ PIT2120.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.9260.20003.85.74.8 (H=6)5.7 (H=13)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.3320.20004.46.75.6 (H=8)6.7 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0320.20004.46.45.4 (H=8)6.4 (H=16)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.9)15 (-0.8)15 (-0.9)15 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.1)4 (-5.1)4 (-4.6)4 (-5.3)
6Jeremy Sprinkle54322402.
7Dawson Knox29522202.
8Vance McDonald60431901.
9Ryan Griffin65865005.

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs HOU3254.0701131715.017.0
8vs DEN2243.02602.
9@ PIT2422.01601.
10PROJ-Dodds2.8370. (H=11)8.3 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.7330. (H=10)7.8 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0410. (H=14)9.5 (H=25)

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3600)

7vs HOU5853.02102.
8vs DEN4654.06106.
9@ PIT5543.02218.211.29.711.2
10PROJ-Dodds3.4350. (H=11)8.7 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.1310.34.986.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0340. (H=13)9.8 (H=28)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs HOU3000.000000.00.0
8vs DEN1800.000000.00.0
9@ PIT2111.01101.
10PROJ-Dodds0.570. (H=1)1.8 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.660. (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.3)30 (+2.3)31 (+2.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.8)26 (+1.8)26 (+2.8) (+0.0)
6Dustin Hopkins1222555.05.0
7Steve Hauschka3322111113.013.0
8Chris Boswell23339911.011.0
9Sam Ficken3411101013.013.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs HOU0044444.04.0
8vs DEN34019914.014.0
9@ PIT1212444.04.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+4.1)25T (+4.1)24T (+6.8)24T (+6.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.8)25 (+2.8)24 (+2.9)24 (+2.9)
6Washington Redskins16271520009910.010.0
7Buffalo Bills2138111101111111.011.0
8Pittsburgh Steelers1423042200121213.013.0
9New York Jets2631640010666.06.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs HOU23.0039132000779.09.0
8vs DEN13.0027930000337.07.0
9@ PIT26.0027311100558.08.0
10PROJ-Dodds16.903052.71.10.900.612.312.312.3 (H=31)12.3 (H=44)
10PROJ-Tremblay17.002782110.10.712.212.212.2 (H=31)12.2 (H=43)