Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chiefs 0, Titans 0

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense28.0 (+5.4) (6)90 (-21) (24)300 (+61) (2)
Titans Defense18.3 (-4.2) (7)103 (-8) (15)236 (-2) (17)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense18.7 (-3.9) (26)101 (-11) (18)213 (-25) (24)
Chiefs Defense22.7 (+0.1) (18)140 (+27) (29)230 (-8) (12)

Chiefs Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Chiefs rushing offense would have put forth yet another disappointing showing if not for a 91-yard touchdown run from Damien Williams in last week’s win over the Vikings. Williams led the backfield with 12 carries, and he would have averaged just 3.1 yards per attempt without counting that big run in the third quarter. Williams had yet to exceed 30 rushing yards in a game leading up to last week, but he has at least found the end zone lately with a rushing touchdown in back-to-back weeks. It had actually been LeSean McCoy who had looked like the best running back in this backfield, but he has worked firmly behind Williams in back-to-back weeks with just 12 rushes compared to 19 from Williams. The Chiefs offensive line has been in shambles from injuries to three starters over the past couple of weeks. They may again be without left tackle Eric Fisher this week, who is their best offensive lineman. Right guard Laurent Duverynay-Tardif also missed last week’s game and is questionable coming into this one.

The Titans defense had their worst game of the season against the run last week, giving up 146 yards and two touchdowns to MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey. It was a tough day as the offense struggled to sustain drives and gave up three turnovers that kept the defense on the field. The Titans were also without top defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, who was surprisingly held out with a shoulder injury that popped up late last week. Casey’s practice status must be watched, as this run defense is certainly not as effective without him. Casey did miss practice on Wednesday, so the Thursday practice will be critical. However, the play from both Daquon Jones and Jeffrey Simmons has been very impressive while they are also supported by a top-tier run defending safety in Kevin Byard along with a solid group of linebackers. Even if Casey does remain sidelined, this is still a slightly above-average run defense. However, if Casey can indeed suit up, this remains a top tier run defense that should have minimal issues against the Chiefs offensive line.

Chiefs Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The return of Patrick Mahomes is imminent as he looks to get this passing offense back on track against the Titans. Matt Moore did all that could be expected plus more while leading this offense in the absence of Mahomes, but he (nor many other quarterbacks in the league) can hold a candle to what Mahomes brings to this offense. Mahomes returns to more weapons than what he left with as his full arsenal comes into this week healthy. Tyreek Hill should be the defacto top target as this week, barring any unforeseen circumstances, should mark the first time this season both he and Mahomes will have played over 50 percent of a game together. Hill has some momentum coming into this one after a season-high 140 yards and a touchdown last week. He has exceeded 70 yards in each game since returning in Week 6, also adding four touchdowns over that span. Travis Kelce has had a good, but not great, season with very consistent volume as he has been targeted at least eight times in all but one game. He has crossed 90 yards just once while scoring only two touchdowns, and he has been held below 75 yards in five straight game. What is a fine season for most tight ends has been just decent for Kelce as he will look to get into the end zone against a weakened Titans secondary.

The Titans have been holding their own against the pass for most of this season, but they were dealt a blow last week with the season-ending injury to cornerback Malcolm Butler. Butler had not been their top cornerback by any means, but he was a solid piece in this secondary that has limited depth, as it will be a steep drop-off in talent behind Butler. It will be quite advantageous for Tyreek Hill when lining up against the likes of LeShaun Sims or Tye Smith on the outside. Even if the Titans decide to shadow Hill with Adoree Jackson, Hill still maintains a matchup advantage. Logan Ryan has been very impressive out of the slot and should do a decent job covering Sammy Watkins. Safety Kevin Byard has also been one of the top safeties in football this season and will play a key role in covering Tyreek Hill on the deep balls while also helping to keep tabs on Travis Kelce. If Kelce can find the right matchups against Titans linebackers, however, he should have a good shot at some chunk gains as the Titans have struggled against tight ends at times this season.

Titans Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Derrick Henry took a while to get going last week, but he had a few productive drives on his way to 53 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown from a season-low 13 carries. Henry has now averaged over four yards per carry in three straight games despite continuing to post mediocre yardage totals considering the volume of carries he has been seeing. It took Henry 27 carries just to post 100 rushing yards for his only game in triple-digits. With his straight-line bruising running style, Henry will continue to require rhythm and big plays to put up yards in this offense. The offensive line had a tough time blocking yet again, not helped by the absence of starting center Ben Jones. They did look better throughout the second half, but this group has struggled with consistency all season long.

The Chiefs run defense has picked up their game over the past three weeks, allowing an average of just 80 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs over the past three weeks--including holding Aaron Jones to 67 rushing yards in Week 8 and keeping Dalvin Cook relatively in check last week holding him to an average of just 3.4 yards per carry and no touchdowns. The return of defensive lineman Chris Jones was huge for this defense, as he looked back to his usual dominant self last week making plays both against the run and the pass. Beyond Jones, however, this unit is still thin with minimal playmakers to stop the run. They have given up too many big games on the ground to just now be considered a decent run defense, regardless of the past three weeks worth of decent outings. This linebacker group will remain a liability while defensive lineman Frank Clark looks to still be sidelined, or limited (at best) if he does suit up. Even the struggling Titans offensive line should afford Derrick Henry with enough opportunity to be productive this week.

Titans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Titans passing offense put up a season-high 331 yards last week, but Ryan Tannehill was just mediocre in the effort as he tossed a couple of interceptions while missing on most of his deep targets. Tannehill has certainly been competent in his three starts under center for the Titans and has not been afraid to push the ball downfield, but he has yet to be particularly successful without lapses in coverage to help his productivity. Tannehill has also struggled with interceptions, throwing at least one in three of the last four games he has played in. Titans receivers have been about as inconsistent as they come in this unpredictable passing offense. A.J. Brown led the pack last week after finishing with just two receptions in three of his four preceding games. Corey Davis has finished with more than 50 receiving yards just twice this season as he is seeing far from WR1 volume, while Adam Humphries is a short-yardage slot threat averaging fewer than 10 yards per reception also with just two games of more than 50 receiving yards. Delanie Walker remains week to week with an injury, and while Jonnu Smith had a pair of nice games in Weeks 7 and 8, he put up a dud last week with just three receptions for 18 yards.

The Chiefs defense has given up three passing touchdowns in back-to-back games after allowing more than one passing touchdown in five of their first seven games. Cornerback Charvarius Ward is having an impressive season as opposing quarterbacks are routinely avoiding him in coverage. Ward should provide a challenge for Corey Davis as they look to square off on most snaps. Bashaud Breeland, on the other hand, has been far from impressive opposite Ward and has been dealing with a banged-up shoulder since Week 8. Breeland should offer an easier matchup for the likes of Tajae Sharpe and A.J. Brown. The Chiefs pass rush was uplifted last week with the return of Chris Jones, however, they still managed to apply limited pressure with just one sack against a middling the Vikings offensive line. Both Frank Clark and Alex Okafor also remained sidelined last week and are questionable coming into this game. While the Titans have had dysfunctional pass protection all season, the absence of both Clarke and Okafor would afford them a much better chance at keeping Tannehill upright and able to locate open targets downfield.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.2)12 (-1.2)13 (-1.4)12 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.6)13 (-1.6)12 (-1.9)15 (-1.0)
6Joe Flacco621828177014-
7Philip Rivers6424383292000024.524.521.224.2
8Jameis Winston83214330122853026.426.421.326.3
9Kyle Allen711732232213-4018.218.215.915.9

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $7000)

7@ DEN2010117610120887.27.2
8vs GB000000000000.00.0
9vs MIN000000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds23362751.912100.121.921.921.9 (H=49)21.9 (H=59)
10PROJ-Tremblay19302351.60.8280.118.818.818.8 (H=38)18.8 (H=46)
10PROJ-Bloom23302872.40.500023.523.523.5 (H=56)23.5 (H=67)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.3)20 (+0.7)19 (+0.2)19 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.7)29 (+5.8)27 (+5.1)29 (+6.5)
6Phillip Lindsay2915701325013.515.514.515.5
6Royce Freeman3811340554207.612.610.112.6
7Austin Ekeler3857087118118.525.522.028.5
7Melvin Gordon341632032-318.910.97.99.9
8Ronald Jones2211350411705.
8Peyton Barber291020031802.
9Christian McCaffrey612414623320134.637.636.140.6
9Reggie Bonnafon836011701.

Damien Williams (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4900)

7@ DEN097032.0-
8vs GB25730100.000999.09.0
9vs MIN4312125122.03018.820.819.823.8
10PROJ-Dodds11460.42.2150.19.111.310.2 (H=18)11.3 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay11420.42.1150.18.710.89.8 (H=17)10.8 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom12470.63.0180.311.914.913.4 (H=29)14.9 (H=43)

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4400)

7@ DEN261264022.01207.
8vs GB23940044.02306.310.36.39.3
9vs MIN639011.0000.
10PROJ-Dodds8320.22.0120. (H=11)8.2 (H=17)
10PROJ-Tremblay7280.22.0140.1687.0 (H=10)8.0 (H=16)
10PROJ-Bloom7310. (H=8)6.7 (H=12)

Darrel Williams (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3200)

7@ DEN021022.0500.
8vs GB9210000.000111.01.0
9vs MIN1111010.0000.
10PROJ-Dodds2700.9801.52.42.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1501.0801.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom130.10.0000.90.90.9 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.0)10 (-2.7)11 (-1.9)10 (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.5)14 (-3.4)15 (-1.8)15 (-2.4)
6Courtland Sutton58847600007.611.69.611.6
6DaeSean Hamilton40222500002.
7Keenan Allen601146100006.
7Mike Williams61644700004.
8Mike Evans761211198200031.842.837.345.8
8Chris Godwin82844300004.38.38.310.3
9Curtis Samuel5363641110013.416.414.916.4
9D.J. Moore67107101000010.117.113.620.1

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7700)

7@ DEN5353.074100013.416.414.916.4
8vs GB5396.07601508.
9vs MIN6086.0140115020.526.523.529.5
10PROJ-Dodds5.4770.614011.717.114.4 (H=25)17.1 (H=35)
10PROJ-Tremblay5.3770.613011.616.914.3 (H=25)16.9 (H=34)
10PROJ-Bloom6.0890.6150131916.0 (H=30)19.0 (H=42)

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5100)

7@ DEN000.000000000.00.0
8vs GB5185.04500004.
9vs MIN54107.06300006.313.39.813.3
10PROJ-Dodds4.3510.40007.511.89.7 (H=15)11.8 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.3570.40008.112.410.3 (H=17)12.4 (H=30)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0570.50008.713.711.2 (H=20)13.7 (H=36)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

7@ DEN4953.03100003.
8vs GB3822.0600000.
9vs MIN2421.0500000.
10PROJ-Dodds1.5210.20003.34.84.1 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.5200.10002.64.13.4 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
10PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Mecole Hardman (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4000)

7@ DEN2932.02810008.810.89.810.8
8vs GB922.055100011.513.512.513.5
9vs MIN1100.0001700.70.7-1.3-0.3
10PROJ-Dodds1.5210.10002.74.23.6 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.2170.10202.53.73.2 (H=2)3.8 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0310.3160. (H=10)8.2 (H=19)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.4)18 (+0.0)18 (+0.2)18 (+0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.8)8 (-3.7)8 (-3.2)8 (-3.9)
6Noah Fant40321601.
7Hunter Henry58869709.715.712.715.7
8Cameron Brate55633203.
9Greg Olsen65534004.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $6400)

7@ DEN5586.04404.410.47.410.4
8vs GB5984.063112.316.314.316.3
9vs MIN5897.06206.213.29.713.2
10PROJ-Dodds5.4630.48.714.111.4 (H=20)14.1 (H=30)
10PROJ-Tremblay5.6690.49.314.912.1 (H=22)14.9 (H=33)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0710.510.115.112.6 (H=24)15.1 (H=34)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ DEN2910.000000.00.0
8vs GB1810.000000.00.0
9vs MIN3111.0200.
10PROJ-Dodds0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.2)4 (-2.2)5 (-2.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.7)13 (-0.7)15 (-0.5) (+0.0)
6Brandon McManus3311101013.013.0
7Mike Badgley0000000.00.0
8Matt Gay33009910.010.0
9Joey Slye1234666.06.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ DEN3333121212.012.0
8vs GB1233666.06.0
9vs MIN4422141418.018.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.2)22 (+0.9)22 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+1.3)20T (+1.3)28 (+3.6)28 (+3.6)
6Denver Broncos020473000131323.023.0
7Los Angeles Chargers2340321000444.04.0
8Tampa Bay Buccaneers2724630100555.05.0
9Carolina Panthers2043142100101011.011.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2700)

7@ DEN6.0020590101232324.024.0
8vs GB31.0037450000554.04.0
9vs MIN23.0030810000111.01.0
10PROJ-Dodds22.503482. (H=22)8.7 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay22.253311.90.90.700. (H=23)8.8 (H=32)

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.2)22 (+2.1)23 (+2.3)22 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.4)24 (+3.3)25 (+3.6)24 (+3.5)
6Deshaun Watson923042280121042232.232.231.431.4
7Joe Flacco6721342130000010.710.76.57.5
8Aaron Rodgers69233330530629030.
9Kirk Cousins7119382203015023.523.521.321.3

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5100)

7vs LAC6423293122157023.323.320.223.2
8vs TB632133193304-3021.421.419.419.4
9@ CAR75273933112438128.428.425.028.0
10PROJ-Dodds21332421.513120.219.519.519.5 (H=47)19.5 (H=67)
10PROJ-Tremblay19302201.40.95150.218.418.418.4 (H=43)18.4 (H=60)
10PROJ-Bloom19312281.81380.1191919.0 (H=45)19.0 (H=64)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.5)30 (+7.0)30 (+6.4)31 (+7.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+12.0)31 (+13.6)31 (+12.6)32 (+14.2)
6Carlos Hyde562611611114019.020.017.522.0
6Duke Johnson3453404220111.413.412.413.4
7Royce Freeman42103515432012.716.714.716.7
7Phillip Lindsay271136011-403.
8Aaron Jones441367087159234.641.638.144.6
8Jamaal Williams3272213314115.618.617.118.6
9Dalvin Cook57217107445011.615.613.615.6
9Ameer Abdullah9120111617.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6400)

7vs LAC482290111.018016.817.817.317.8
8vs TB421675011.0808.
9@ CAR401363133.036121.924.923.424.9
10PROJ-Dodds19900.61.4150.114.716.115.4 (H=32)16.1 (H=38)
10PROJ-Tremblay20860.61.5130.114.115.614.9 (H=30)15.6 (H=36)
10PROJ-Bloom17750.72.0180.214.716.715.7 (H=33)16.7 (H=40)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs LAC1712010.0000.
8vs TB2100011.0200.
9@ CAR35420055.03305.310.35.89.3
10PROJ-Dodds31102.21502.64.83.7 (H=4)4.8 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay2702.0130243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom1200.0000.20.20.2 (H=0)0.2 (H=0)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.4)7 (-6.3)7 (-5.0)7 (-6.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-8.3)5 (-8.9)5 (-7.9)5 (-9.4)
6DeAndre Hopkins901295500005.514.512.016.5
6Will Fuller81954400004.
7Courtland Sutton64868700008.714.711.714.7
7Emmanuel Sanders59656000006.011.08.511.0
8Jake Kumerow35424800004.
8Allen Lazard46554200004.
9Olabisi Johnson5921410006.
9Laquon Treadwell20535800005.

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4300)

7vs LAC3986.06401-
8vs TB3932.01110007.
9@ CAR5274.08100008.
10PROJ-Dodds3.2490.30006.79.98.3 (H=14)9.9 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.5360.20004.87.36.1 (H=8)7.3 (H=14)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0610.40008.512.510.5 (H=21)12.5 (H=36)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4400)

7vs LAC4876.0801000142017.020.0
8vs TB3962.0900000.
9@ CAR5854.04800004.
10PROJ-Dodds3.4450.20005.79.17.4 (H=12)9.1 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.8370.20004.97.76.3 (H=9)7.7 (H=15)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0510.40007.511.59.5 (H=18)11.5 (H=31)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs LAC3144.0400000486.08.0
8vs TB2863.02400002.
9@ CAR4744.06500006.510.58.510.5
10PROJ-Dodds3.4340.20004.686.4 (H=9)8.1 (H=21)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.7310.20004.375.7 (H=7)7.1 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0410.20005.39.37.4 (H=12)9.4 (H=27)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs LAC2532.01910007.
8vs TB2333.01810007.810.89.310.8
9@ CAR3342.03100003.
10PROJ-Dodds1.5210.20003.34.84.1 (H=4)4.8 (H=9)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.7240.20003.65.34.5 (H=5)5.3 (H=11)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0230.30004.16.15.1 (H=7)6.1 (H=14)

Kalif Raymond (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

8vs TB400.000000000.00.0
9@ CAR2232.01900001.
10PROJ-Dodds1.01100001.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.790.10001.52.21.9 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.2)23 (+1.6)20 (+0.7)23 (+1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.1)17 (-0.5)18 (-0.8)17 (-0.7)
6Darren Fells80766906.912.99.912.9
7Noah Fant4851700.
8Jimmy Graham42532002.
9Kyle Rudolph55532318.311.39.811.3

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs LAC5333.06406.
8vs TB4676.078113.819.816.819.8
9@ CAR5553.01801.
10PROJ-Dodds2.9350. (H=9)7.6 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.2380. (H=11)8.8 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0340. (H=10)8.2 (H=21)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs LAC1511.02702.
8vs TB3653.04304.
9@ CAR2010.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.4160. (H=2)3.6 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.5170. (H=3)3.8 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Delanie Walker (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

7vs LAC500.000000.00.0
8vs TB000.000000.00.0
9@ CAR000.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.3)12 (-0.3)10 (-0.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.7)4 (-2.7)4 (-3.2) (+0.0)
6Kaimi Fairbairn1223556.06.0
7Brandon McManus0100000.00.0
8Mason Crosby1144777.07.0
9Dan Bailey1123555.05.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

9@ CAR0322222.02.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-2.8)3T (-2.8)3 (-3.7)3 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-2.5)10T (-2.5)6 (-2.9)6 (-2.9)
6Houston Texans2430911100555.05.0
7Denver Broncos3027110000111.01.0
8Green Bay Packers2433720100444.04.0
9Minnesota Vikings2637750100777.07.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2000)

7vs LAC20.0036510100334.04.0
8vs TB23.0038932200111111.011.0
9@ CAR30.0037031000554.04.0
10PROJ-Dodds25.703652.510.600. (H=18)7.3 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay26.253772.510.600. (H=18)7.3 (H=31)