Matchup Analysis: Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Panthers 22, Packers 27

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Carolina Panthers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Panthers Offense26.1 (+3.6) (10)133 (+21) (7)207 (-31) (25)
Packers Defense21.0 (-1.6) (12)128 (+15) (24)255 (+16) (21)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense25.1 (+2.5) (13)95 (-16) (22)257 (+18) (12)
Panthers Defense25.5 (+2.9) (21)133 (+21) (26)227 (-11) (9)

Panthers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Christian McCaffrey just continues to solidify his MVP case as he put up another dazzling performance against what was a solid Titans run defense last week. He is leading the league by a wide margin in fantasy points scored amongst running backs while also leading in rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns, and rushing yards per attempt (amongst running backs with at least 100 rushes). The only team to have success stopping him has been Tampa Bay, as he has averaged 135.5 rushing yards per game if you exclude Weeks 2 and 6 against the Buccaneers. He has virtually no competition for touches in this backfield and will maintain his workhorse role coming into this week at the Packers. His offensive line also remains a top-tier unit even as they continue on without starting left tackle Greg Little, who remains week-to-week with a concussion. Rookie Dennis Daley is playing very well in replacement, so there is no pressure for Little to rush back on to the field.

The Packers defense had a tough outing last week as they gave up over 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns to what had been an otherwise reeling Chargers rushing offense and very mediocre offensive line. Consistency has been an issue for this defense all season, as last week marked the third time they allowed at least 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns to a lead running back and the fifth time they have given up over 150 rushing yards to an opposing backfield. On the other hand, this defense did a good job keeping both Kerryon Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott in check earlier in the season. They have talent upfront with Kenny Clark on the interior, but he certainly has taken a step back from his impressive 2018 campaign. Packers linebackers have also come up short against the run for most of this season, serving as an overall weakness for this defense. The Panthers offensive line and Christian McCaffrey should have a distinct advantage in this one.

Panthers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Cam Newton’s season has officially ended as he was placed on Injured Reserve this week, paving the way for Kyle Allen to retain his job as the starter from here on out. Allen bounced back with a decent showing last week after falling apart in Week 8 against the 49ers. He did throw another interception in last week’s game to mark his second straight game with a pick after starting his season clean through his first four games. Allen has also completed less than 55 percent of his passes in back-to-back games, but he should continue to serve as a mediocre option to manage a Christian McCaffrey-led offense moving forward. McCaffrey did have a quiet game through the air last week with just 20 yards, but he scored his third receiving touchdown within the past four games and continues to dominate touches for this offense. D.J. Moore remains the top target in the passing game and has led the team in receptions for four straight week, crossing the 100-yard mark for the first time this season in last week’s game. Curtis Samuel continues to have a limited ceiling, but he has amassed over 45 yards in three straight games with at least six targets in seven straight contests as he has been consistently involved in the offense. Greg Olsen made a few nice catches last week but he remains an unreliable contributor as he has exceeded 15 yards just twice in the past five games with only one red-zone look over that span.

The Packers pass defense has been above average for most of the season, giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to both wide receivers and quarterbacks while ranking near the middle of the pack in sacks (22). This secondary has given up just one touchdown to wide receivers over the past four weeks, but that hasn’t come without some relatively inconsistent play. Both Jaire Alexander and Kevin King Slot have had their share of struggles containing outside receivers at times this season. King has been dealing with a groin injury and was limited to just 20 snaps last week, but he actually looked good on all 20 snaps and had one of his better games in coverage on a per route basis. Both Alexander and King should afford slight advantages to the outside Panthers receivers. Slot cornerback Tramon Williams has been the top contributor for this secondary though, regularly locking down opposing slot receivers. The pass rush for the Packers may have put up average numbers in the sack column, but they have a fierce pair of edge rushers that should be a handful for a Panthers offensive line that has allowed multiple sacks in all eight games. This linebacker group for the Packers has actually done a decent job covering running backs despite a rough showing from Blake Martinez last week. An opposing running back hasn’t exceeded 30 receiving yards since Week 3 and hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown since Week 4, which could at least slightly dampen the outlook for McCaffrey through the air.

Packers Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Panthers defense.

The Packers had a very tough time getting anything going on offense last week, particularly on the ground as Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined for just 40 rushing yards from a season-low 10 combined attempts. Aaron Jones has now led the backfield in carries for three straight weeks despite the continued involvement of Williams. Jones had strung together four straight decent outings on the ground leading into last week with 4.2 rushing yards per game in all four games, but he couldn’t overcome the poor play from this Packers defense and overall lack of usage last week. The workload for Jones will continue to be a question with Jamaal Williams continuing to see 40-50 percent of the snaps and having scored at least one touchdown in four straight games now, including a goal-line score two weeks ago. The Packers offensive line has been banged up in recent weeks with both starting tackles and their center all dealing with injuries. Everyone played last week though, and they all escaped without apparent setbacks--keeping this group ranked in the upper tier coming into this week.

The Panthers have a below-average run defense that continues to give up production to running backs on a weekly basis. They are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs and have given up more touchdowns than any other team in the league to the position. Much of that production has come in recent weeks as they have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in four straight games, giving up a total of eight rushing touchdowns to running backs over that span. This lack of success continues to be puzzling considering the talent this team has upfront in Gerald McCoy on the interior and Luke Kuechly at linebacker. Both are excellent defenders and have a decent supporting cast around them. Where the Panthers have struggled is in the secondary, as their cornerbacks and safeties have been subpar when it comes to stepping up against the run and executing tackles. The Packers offensive line should hold up well against this group and allow Aaron Jones a chance to get back on track.

Packers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Panthers defense.

In the words of Aaron Rodgers, this offense ate some humble pie last week as they were shut down by the Chargers. A strong performance from the Packers pass rush forced a banged-up Packers offensive line to allow far too much pressure on Rodgers, which was one of the primary reasons for such a crash for this offense that had looked spectacular in the preceding two weeks. While Rodgers has certainly had a few clunkers this season, he remains an every-week candidate to put up massive numbers in this passing offense. Davante Adams is a similar big-production threat as he immediately returned to the top option for Rodgers in his first game since suffering a toe injury in Week 4. Better days should also be expected ahead for Adams. however, he will be up against stout coverage yet again in this week’s matchup. While Allen Lazard’s snap count took a dip with the return of Adams, his role in this offense was still meaningful as he actually led the team in receiving last week. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, on the other hand, had his second straight abysmal showing while Geronimo Allison continues to struggle through injuries as he took another big hit that may have limited him last week. Both running backs remain viable threats out of the backfield, albeit Aaron Jones had virtually no production through the air last week with Jamaal Williams seeing six receptions to just one for Jones.

Carolina gave up 331 passing yards to Ryan Tannehill of the Titans last week, but this defense actually played well with most of that production coming in garbage-time after they pulled away to a big lead by halftime. The strength of this Panthers defense has been in the trenches as they now lead the league in sacks with 34 while converting sacks on a league-leading 20 percent of their pressures. The Packers offensive line has done a decent job in pass protection all season, but they certainly struggled last week as both tackles and their center have been playing through nagging injuries. In the secondary, have a pair of solid outside cornerbacks in James Bradberry and Donte Jackson--both of whom should provide adequate challenges for the Packers receivers. Safety Eric Reid has had a rough season overall against tight end as he and this linebacker group has given up at least 47 yards to opposing tight ends in three of the last four games. Reid had a solid game against the Titans and Jonnu Smith last week, but Jimmy Graham will still get the nod in this matchup. The big question for the entire Packers offense here will be how their offensive line can withstand pressure from the Panthers as the Chargers clearly showed how terrible this Packers offense can be when Rodgers is under consistent duress.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.1)8 (-2.1)8 (-2.5)8 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.3)14 (-1.3)13 (-1.8)12 (-2.7)
6Matthew Stafford5918322650039014.214.211.511.5
7Derek Carr5922282932120021.721.716.717.7
8Matt Moore5924362672013021.721.719.019.0
9Philip Rivers7121282940030014.714.711.811.8

Kyle Allen (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5100)

8@ SF691937158030004.
9vs TEN711732232213-4018.218.215.915.9
10PROJ-Dodds21352531.40.9250.118.418.418.4 (H=44)18.4 (H=60)
10PROJ-Tremblay23372551.31.1270. (H=43)18.1 (H=59)
10PROJ-Bloom19322251.3100015.415.415.4 (H=32)15.4 (H=44)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.2)29 (+4.9)27 (+4.6)28 (+4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.7)20 (+2.3)20 (+1.8)19 (+2.2)
6Kerryon Johnson43133414227012.
6J.D. McKissic1434032701.
7Josh Jacobs372112403310013.416.414.919.4
7DeAndre Washington146290111204.
8Damien Williams25730100009.
8LeSean McCoy239400442306.310.36.39.3
9Melvin Gordon45208024329022.925.924.425.9
9Austin Ekeler2412700442309.313.311.313.3

Christian McCaffrey (FanDuel: $10500, DraftKings: $10500)

8@ SF5414117154.038021.525.525.530.5
9vs TEN6124146233.020134.637.636.140.6
10PROJ-Dodds20990.75.1460.219.92522.4 (H=41)25.0 (H=50)
10PROJ-Tremblay18880.74.7370.217.922.620.2 (H=34)22.6 (H=42)
10PROJ-Bloom21981.14.0340.422.226.224.2 (H=47)26.2 (H=54)

Reggie Bonnafon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3700)

8@ SF1214031.0300.
9vs TEN836011.0701.
10PROJ-Dodds270.10.5401.72.22.0 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay290.11.0802.33.32.8 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.9)8 (-4.5)9 (-3.3)9 (-4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-3.3)8 (-5.9)10 (-4.5)9 (-5.4)
6Kenny Golladay4795121000012.117.114.620.1
6Marvin Hall10115800005.
7Keelan Doss29535400005.
7Marcell Ateman23113600003.
8Mecole Hardman92255100011.513.512.513.5
8Tyreek Hill53967601508.
9Mike Williams6543111012011.314.312.817.3
9Keenan Allen62434000004.

D.J. Moore (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5200)

8@ SF6495.03800003.
9vs TEN67107.0101000010.117.113.620.1
10PROJ-Dodds5.3710.30008.914.211.6 (H=24)14.2 (H=38)
10PROJ-Tremblay6.0780.30109.715.712.7 (H=28)15.7 (H=45)
10PROJ-Bloom6.0710.30008.914.911.9 (H=25)14.9 (H=41)

Curtis Samuel (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4600)

8@ SF61114.04600004.
9vs TEN5363.0641110013.416.414.916.4
10PROJ-Dodds4.1570.31407.91210.0 (H=17)12.0 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.2560.31407.8129.9 (H=17)12.0 (H=32)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0630.4160.19.913.911.9 (H=23)13.9 (H=41)

Jarius Wright (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

8@ SF4042.01200001.
9vs TEN3640.0001-70-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7
10PROJ-Dodds1.7200.10002.64.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=8)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.1260.10103.35.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=12)
10PROJ-Bloom1.0600000.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+1.9)27 (+2.6)27 (+2.1)26 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.1)32 (+9.1)32 (+8.1)32 (+9.7)
6T.J. Hockenson33642102.
7Darren Waller6187126224.631.628.134.6
8Travis Kelce598463112.316.314.316.3
9Hunter Henry551078408.415.411.915.4

Greg Olsen (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3600)

8@ SF5422.01301.
9vs TEN6553.0400475.57.0
10PROJ-Dodds3.6440. (H=14)9.8 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.8430. (H=14)9.9 (H=29)
10PROJ-Bloom4.0510.26.310.38.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=31)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (+0.3)16T (+0.3)19T (+0.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+3.5)30 (+3.5)32 (+4.8) (+0.0)
6Matt Prater5511161621.021.0
7Daniel Carlson1133667.07.0
8Harrison Butker1233666.06.0
9Mike Badgley4522141416.016.0

Joey Slye (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

8@ SF1100334.04.0
9vs TEN1234666.06.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-2.8)3T (-2.8)5 (-3.3)5 (-3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-2.7)8T (-2.7)5 (-3.4)5 (-3.4)
6Detroit Lions2344711200777.07.0
7Oakland Raiders424811000011-3.0-3.0
8Kansas City Chiefs3137450000554.04.0
9Los Angeles Chargers1118430000337.07.0

Carolina Panthers (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2600)

8@ SF51.0038831000553.03.0
9vs TEN20.0043142100101011.011.0
10PROJ-Dodds26.103762.50.60.500. (H=14)6.3 (H=18)
10PROJ-Tremblay26.503682.40.90.600.3777.0 (H=17)7.0 (H=22)

Panthers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.9)14 (-0.9)15 (-1.2)15 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.2)19 (+0.2)20 (+0.7)22 (+1.9)
6Jameis Winston8030544001511019.
8Jimmy Garoppolo6018221752100015.815.814.014.0
9Ryan Tannehill75273933112438128.428.425.028.0

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6600)

7vs OAK5425314295026148.148.143.846.8
8@ KC69233330530629030.
9@ LAC5423351611015012.612.612.912.9
10PROJ-Dodds23362701.90.53150.122.722.722.7 (H=55)22.7 (H=67)
10PROJ-Tremblay23372671.80.93130.121.521.521.5 (H=50)21.5 (H=61)
10PROJ-Bloom22312192.50.5280.121.921.921.9 (H=52)21.9 (H=63)

Panthers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.1)27 (+4.3)28 (+4.7)27 (+4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+14.4)32 (+14.1)32 (+13.9)31 (+14.2)
6Dare Ogunbowale46131532208.511.510.011.5
6Ronald Jones13410100007.
8Tevin Coleman321110532213135.837.836.840.8
8Raheem Mostert149601000012.
9Derrick Henry40136313336121.924.923.424.9
9Dion Lewis354200553305.310.35.89.3

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $7400)

7vs OAK341250044.033114.318.316.318.3
8@ KC441367087.0159234.641.638.144.6
9@ LAC32830041.0-
10PROJ-Dodds13600.63.8320.21417.815.9 (H=31)17.8 (H=39)
10PROJ-Tremblay12520.54.0350.212.916.914.9 (H=28)16.9 (H=36)
10PROJ-Bloom13530.53.0200.312.115.113.6 (H=24)15.1 (H=29)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5200)

7vs OAK2435054.02619.
8@ KC32722133.014115.618.617.118.6
9@ LAC24210066.039110.916.913.916.9
10PROJ-Dodds9360.22.9200.38.611.510.1 (H=19)11.5 (H=26)
10PROJ-Tremblay7310.23.4250.38.61210.3 (H=20)12.0 (H=28)
10PROJ-Bloom7260.44.0250.510.514.512.5 (H=28)14.5 (H=39)

Dan Vitale (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs OAK1700022.04304.
8@ KC1400000.000000.00.0
9@ LAC400000.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0000.3300.30.60.4 (H=0)0.6 (H=0)

Panthers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.6)25 (+4.1)23 (+2.5)25 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+3.4)29 (+7.3)24 (+5.5)27 (+7.6)
6Chris Godwin771210151000015.
6Mike Evans731799600009.618.616.120.6
8Deebo Samuel4733190229110.813.812.313.8
8Emmanuel Sanders55542510008.512.510.512.5
9A.J. Brown52748100008.
9Adam Humphries47446500006.510.58.510.5

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6900)

7vs OAK000.000000000.00.0
8@ KC000.000000000.00.0
9@ LAC45117.04100004.111.17.611.1
10PROJ-Dodds5.8790.500010.916.713.8 (H=24)16.7 (H=38)
10PROJ-Tremblay5.5750.40009.915.412.7 (H=20)15.4 (H=33)
10PROJ-Bloom6.0690.600010.516.513.5 (H=23)16.5 (H=37)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4500)

7vs OAK2032.0133100019.321.320.324.3
8@ KC4321.0400000.
9@ LAC3720.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds2.3390.20005.17.46.3 (H=8)7.4 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.3520.30107.110.48.8 (H=15)10.4 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0350.30005.37.36.3 (H=8)7.3 (H=13)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs OAK3454.03300003.
8@ KC4431.0700000.
9@ LAC3522.02100002.
10PROJ-Dodds1.8200.10002.64.43.5 (H=3)4.4 (H=6)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.5190.10102.64.13.4 (H=3)4.1 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Allen Lazard (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

7vs OAK5143.04200004.
8@ KC4655.04200004.
9@ LAC2543.04400004.
10PROJ-Dodds1.0150.10002.13.12.6 (H=1)3.1 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.6800000.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0430.30006.19.17.6 (H=12)9.1 (H=24)

Jake Kumerow (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs OAK4322.054100011.413.412.413.4
8@ KC3542.04800004.
9@ LAC1320.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.3400000.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom1.030.10000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

Panthers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.8)6 (-2.8)7 (-2.3)6 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.6)20 (+0.2)20 (+0.4)20 (+0.0)
6Cameron Brate304247110.712.711.712.7
8George Kittle56768608.614.611.614.6
9Jonnu Smith55531801.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs OAK3344.065112.516.514.516.5
8@ KC4253.0200253.55.0
9@ LAC3544.01701.
10PROJ-Dodds2.7280. (H=7)7.3 (H=15)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.0310. (H=8)7.9 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0240. (H=8)7.8 (H=17)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs OAK2400.000000.00.0
8@ KC4311.01101.
9@ LAC1900.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.890. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.9110. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jace Sternberger (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

9@ LAC100.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Panthers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (+0.3)16T (+0.3)18 (+0.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.0)6 (-2.0)6T (-2.1) (+0.0)
6Matt Gay1111446.06.0
8Robbie Gould1166999.09.0
9Ryan Succop0322222.02.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs OAK0066666.06.0
8@ KC1144777.07.0
9@ LAC1100335.05.0

Panthers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+0.4)20T (+0.4)18 (-0.7)18 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.3)20 (+1.3)17 (-0.1)17 (-0.1)
6Tampa Bay Buccaneers3726820100440.00.0
8San Francisco 49ers1323073010151517.017.0
9Tennessee Titans3037031000554.04.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $3200)

7vs OAK24.0048401100442.02.0
8@ KC24.0033720100444.04.0
9@ LAC26.0044220000222.02.0
10PROJ-Dodds21.403712. (H=22)9.1 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay21.503712.41.10.700. (H=22)9.1 (H=28)