Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bills 19, Browns 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense19.8 (-2.8) (22)129 (+17) (11)207 (-31) (26)
Browns Defense25.6 (+3.1) (23)141 (+29) (30)216 (-22) (6)

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense19.0 (-3.6) (25)121 (+9) (13)225 (-13) (17)
Bills Defense16.4 (-6.2) (3)112 (+0) (19)184 (-53) (3)

Bills Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The changing of the guard in Buffalo may be upon us as the Bills rode Devin Singletary’s hot hand for 20 carries for 95 yards while Frank Gore saw just 11 carries and was not successful with just 15 yards on those carries. Singletary who has dealt with injuries for much of his rookie season had seen just 20 total carries heading into Week 9 before he matched that in just one game. While it was good to see Singletary see the expanded role, this will remain a split backfield based on Singletary’s pass-blocking abilities which are still needing improvement compared to Gore who is one of the best in the league. Gore also will likely continue to see the short-yardage carries as we saw this past week even though he did struggle in those situations.

Cleveland’s run defense has been a mess for most of the season. Since Week 3 when the Browns placed Christian Kirksey on IR, they are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game at 121 yards per game and are allowing 5.3 yards per carry which is the most in the league. The lack of run defense is similar to the rest of the team which has just been the lack of overall discipline amongst this team. Mack Wilson the team’s 5th round pick is not ready to be in the game in such a big role. After playing a 4-2-5 defense for most of the season, the Browns played more of a traditional 4-3 defense last week playing veteran Adarius Taylor, but it was not successful as the Broncos ran for 107 yards on just 14 carries including allowing 92 yards to Phillip Lindsay on just 9 carries. The Browns have now allowed 70 yards or more to six running backs over their last five games.

Bills Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Josh Allen and this Bills passing offense continue to be an offense that wants to be a run-first offense as they threw the ball just 20 times last week and have thrown for under 220 yards in each of their last five contests. The one bright spot for this offense continues to be John Brown who continues to develop into a consistent receiver as he now has 50 yards or more in every game this season including 70 yards or more in five of his eight games. Outside of Brown, the Bills could really use a receiver to step up as they make their post-season run as Cole Beasley who is the team’s second receiver has seen his volume decrease significantly and has turned into more of a red-zone target as he has scored a touchdown in three straight games, but is averaging just 22 yards per game. Outside of Brown and Beasley, there is not a receiver on this roster that has more than 10 receptions on the season.

The Browns secondary much like their season has been a lost year for a team coming into the year with extremely high expectations. While they have not been terrible as they have only allowed three 250 yard passers or more and have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards, the issue has been touchdowns allowed. Over the last six games, the Browns have allowed every quarterback that they have faced to throw for at least two touchdowns. Armed with two of the most talented young cornerbacks in the NFL in Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward, the two corners just do not look healthy after both missing four games earlier this year with hamstring injuries. The Browns did make a move this past week as they waived Jermaine Whitehead after he struggled to defend Noah Fant allowing a 75-yard pass for a touchdown. This remains a team that still has significant talent, but are playing at a league-average pace right now. Expect the Bills to not test this secondary unless they need to as they should have more success running the ball.

Browns Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bills defense.

The Browns finally get some help for Nick Chubb who has been the team’s workhorse so far this season as the Browns get Kareem Hunt back from suspension this week. While this is still very much Chubb’s team, with a record of 2-6, expect the Browns over the next few weeks to evaluate Hunt as he is on just a one-year contract with the team. Chubb on the season has been dominant averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has been the backbone of this team averaging 5.9 yards per carry over his last five contests even as the team continues to struggle to move the ball. The Browns did make a change at right guard last week as they replaced the struggling Eric Kush for Wyatt Teller and it made no difference as Teller struggled in both pass blocking and run blocking as the right side of the offensive line with Chris Hubbard has been a disaster all season for this team.

If there is a way to beat the Bills, it is on the ground. Over the last two weeks, the Bills run defense has not shown up allowing an average of 145 yards per game to two of the worst run offenses in the NFL in Philadelphia and Washington as Jordan Howard (96), Miles Sanders (74) and Adrian Peterson 108, all went over 70 yards. The issue for the Bills is that they’re primarily playing in a Nickel set and Matt Milano is struggling at the linebacker position against the run. The other issue for this team is that as good as their cornerbacks have been this year in defending the pass, they have struggled in run defense which has allowed for some off-tackle success for the opposition. The Bills have allowed every starting running back that they have faced to rush for over 60 yards on the year as they are not getting a consistent push up front from Star Lotulelei and rookie pass-rushing defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Browns Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Baker Mayfield and the Browns have been a disaster this season, but Mayfield did play arguably his best game in quite some time last week against a very good Broncos secondary. Mayfield threw for 273 yards and did not throw an interception which was the first game on the year without throwing one. The Browns were able to move the ball, for most of the game, but were not able to find the end-zone as they had six drives inside the Broncos 25 yard line that did not lead to any touchdowns on those possessions. The Browns have struggled with consistency for most of the year as the duo of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have just two total touchdowns on the season.

The Bills secondary continued its dominant season so far this year with a strong performance against Dwayne Haskins and the Washington Redskins holding the Redskins to just 144 yards passing. This is the fourth time in the last five weeks that the Bills have held opponents to under 185 yards and have allowed just two touchdowns over their last four games. The Bills secondary is led by possibly the best safety combination in the NFL in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with corner Tre’Davious White who is playing at a Pro Bowl level. This is a secondary that will likely once again force the Browns into a tough spot as the Browns have now faced four of the five best secondaries over their last five games.

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.2)20T (+1.6)19 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+3.2)23 (+3.1)24 (+3.5)23 (+2.4)
6Russell Wilson83233329520931131.931.928.928.9
8Tom Brady6920362592000021.021.018.418.4
9Brandon Allen50122019320513019.

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6300)

7vs MIA56162620220432021.321.321.321.3
8vs PHI621634169208450212117.318.3
9vs WAS62142016010812119.219.217.617.6
10PROJ-Dodds19312121.10.97370.420.220.220.2 (H=48)20.2 (H=57)
10PROJ-Tremblay193020710.99360.318.918.918.9 (H=43)18.9 (H=51)
10PROJ-Bloom16251691.50.66290.519.719.719.7 (H=46)19.7 (H=55)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.1)24 (+1.6)23 (+1.7)23 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+1.0)17 (+0.1)17 (+0.2)17 (+0.2)
6Chris Carson662412414435021.925.923.928.9
6C.J. Prosise17380311502.
8James White28240547507.911.99.911.9
8Sony Michel282174000007.
9Phillip Lindsay239921000015.
9Devontae Booker1000111401.

Devin Singletary (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5000)

7vs MIA22726000.0002.
8vs PHI42319064.030110.914.912.914.9
9vs WAS412095143.0450202321.523.0
10PROJ-Dodds14600.33.0220.110.613.612.1 (H=22)13.6 (H=36)
10PROJ-Tremblay13590.33.2240.110.713.912.3 (H=23)13.9 (H=38)
10PROJ-Bloom17710.53.0260.314.517.516.0 (H=36)17.5 (H=56)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs MIA301155011.01106.
8vs PHI18934000.0003.
9vs WAS211115000.0001.
10PROJ-Dodds10450.20.7506.26.96.6 (H=9)6.9 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay10410.20.2105.45.65.5 (H=6)5.6 (H=9)
10PROJ-Bloom11450.50.0007.57.57.5 (H=11)7.5 (H=16)

Patrick DiMarco (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIA914011.02703.
8vs PHI600010.000000.00.0
9vs WAS1400000.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0000.4400. (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0100.3200. (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.00.0 (H=0)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.0)12 (-2.0)13 (-1.6)12 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+2.6)18 (+2.1)18 (+1.8)16 (+0.8)
6Jaron Brown455329200014.917.916.417.9
6Tyler Lockett80557501307.812.810.312.8
8Julian Edelman661187821-3019.527.523.527.5
8Phillip Dorsett64634300004.
9Courtland Sutton478556117012.317.314.817.3
9DaeSean Hamilton3200000000.

John Brown (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $6000)

7vs MIA5365.083100014.319.316.819.3
8vs PHI5785.05400005.410.47.910.4
9vs WAS5474.07600007.611.69.611.6
10PROJ-Dodds5.0700.30008.813.811.3 (H=22)13.8 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay5.0680.30008.613.611.1 (H=22)13.6 (H=30)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0660.30008.413.410.9 (H=21)13.4 (H=29)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4100)

7vs MIA3163.01610007.610.69.110.6
8vs PHI4973.041100010.113.111.613.1
9vs WAS2822.01310007.
10PROJ-Dodds4.0400.20005.29.27.2 (H=11)9.2 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay3.3370.20004.98.26.6 (H=9)8.2 (H=18)
10PROJ-Bloom3.0220.40004.67.66.1 (H=8)7.6 (H=16)

Isaiah McKenzie (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIA2132.01100001.
8vs PHI000.000000000.00.0
9vs WAS4233.01200001.
10PROJ-Dodds1.5170.10002.33.83.1 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.4170.10002.33.73.0 (H=2)3.7 (H=6)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0190.10002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=9)

Robert Foster (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIA000.000000000.00.0
8vs PHI810.000000000.00.0
9vs WAS710.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.6900000.91.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.4600000.610.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Andre Roberts (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIA710.000000000.00.0
8vs PHI500.000000000.00.0
9vs WAS1800.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.0001400.40.40.5 (H=0)0.5 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.2201500.70.90.9 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.6)20 (+0.7)22 (+1.2)20 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.1)11 (-2.4)16 (-1.2)15 (-1.6)
6Luke Willson56321601.
8Ben Watson48112602.
9Noah Fant4343115117.520.519.023.5

Dawson Knox (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2800)

7vs MIA2952.02202.
8vs PHI2810.000000.00.0
9vs WAS4722.01401.
10PROJ-Dodds1.6200. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.1130.11.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0240. (H=7)6.2 (H=16)

Tyler Kroft (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

8vs PHI3642.03203.
9vs WAS1610.000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.5170. (H=3)3.8 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.9180. (H=3)4.3 (H=9)
10PROJ-Bloom1.0120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+0.4)20T (+0.4)22 (+0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.7)20 (+0.7)20 (+0.3) (+0.0)
6Jason Myers2223888.08.0
8Mike Nugent2433999.09.0
9Brandon McManus1133667.07.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs MIA3322111113.013.0
8vs PHI0112111.01.0
9vs WAS1133667.07.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.8)28 (+2.8)29 (+3.7)29 (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+4.3)28T (+4.3)29 (+3.9)29 (+3.9)
6Seattle Seahawks2840603100889.09.0
8New England Patriots1331051201232321.021.0
9Denver Broncos1935120000223.03.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

7vs MIA21.0038111101111111.011.0
8vs PHI31.0037130100554.04.0
9vs WAS9.0024340000448.08.0
10PROJ-Dodds20.903442.41.20.500. (H=20)9.2 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay21.503562.21.20.500. (H=18)8.7 (H=29)

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-6.4)4 (-6.4)4 (-5.2)4 (-6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.4)8 (-4.4)10 (-3.6)8 (-4.7)
7Ryan Fitzpatrick73233528211613124.424.421.621.6
8Carson Wentz73172417210835016.116.114.414.4
9Dwayne Haskins5115221440031408.

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5000)

8@ NE68203119411118014.514.512.612.6
9@ DEN75274227310322019.919.917.117.1
10PROJ-Dodds20332291.31.2290.116.916.916.9 (H=37)16.9 (H=53)
10PROJ-Tremblay20342381.31.2280.117.317.317.3 (H=39)17.3 (H=55)
10PROJ-Bloom20312081.21.22110.115.715.715.7 (H=33)15.7 (H=47)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)19 (+0.3)21 (+1.3)21 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.8)26 (+4.5)28 (+5.5)27 (+5.3)
7Kalen Ballage537100006.
7Mark Walton381466011-805.
8Miles Sanders1337413344017.820.821.322.8
8Jordan Howard53239612115017.118.117.618.1
9Adrian Peterson361810801122013.014.013.517.0
9Wendell Smallwood1825032-

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7000)

8@ NE4320131011.07013.814.810.315.8
9@ DEN452065054.02609.
10PROJ-Dodds20960.62.8180.115.618.417.0 (H=34)18.4 (H=44)
10PROJ-Tremblay18860.63.0210.114.917.916.4 (H=32)17.9 (H=42)
10PROJ-Bloom17600.72.0130. (H=21)14.1 (H=27)

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10PROJ-Dodds6240.11.9180.267.97.0 (H=12)7.9 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay5200.12.0190. (H=11)7.7 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom7330.13.0220. (H=17)9.7 (H=34)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-7.2)6 (-6.8)2 (-7.9)3 (-8.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-6.3)6 (-7.1)6 (-7.3)6 (-8.5)
7DeVante Parker6210555100011.516.514.016.5
7Preston Williams66868200008.
8Alshon Jeffery52646400006.410.48.410.4
8Nelson Agholor5544702701.
9Paul Richardson24544200004.
9Terry McLaurin51643900003.

Odell Beckham (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6100)

8@ NE6875.05200005.210.27.710.2
9@ DEN7165.08701-508.213.210.713.2
10PROJ-Dodds5.0680.31308.913.911.4 (H=19)13.9 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.9670.31308.813.711.3 (H=19)13.7 (H=30)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0640.4180. (H=23)15.2 (H=36)

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4900)

8@ NE62105.06500006.511.59.011.5
9@ DEN71136.051100011.
10PROJ-Dodds4.6600.30007.812.410.1 (H=18)12.4 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay4.4620.3000812.410.2 (H=18)12.4 (H=31)
10PROJ-Bloom5.0570.30007.512.510.0 (H=17)12.5 (H=32)

Antonio Callaway (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3300)

8@ NE5332.01100001.
9@ DEN3654.05600005.
10PROJ-Dodds2.1270.20003.965.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=13)
10PROJ-Tremblay2.1270.20003.965.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=13)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0180.10002.44.43.4 (H=3)4.4 (H=7)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

8@ NE1421.0200000.
9@ DEN1510.000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.5)2 (-5.3)2 (-4.3)2 (-5.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.3)9 (-3.7)9 (-3.0)9 (-3.9)
7Mike Gesicki33444104.
8Dallas Goedert55532218.211.29.711.2
9Jeremy Sprinkle38111601.

Ricky Seals-Jones (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $2800)

8@ NE3100.000000.00.0
9@ DEN2222.01201.
10PROJ-Dodds1.4170. (H=2)3.7 (H=6)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.4130. (H=1)3.3 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom1.01201.22.21.7 (H=0)2.2 (H=2)

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2900)

8@ NE1432.03319.311.310.311.3
9@ DEN5143.02502.
10PROJ-Dodds1.2140.123.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay1.1130.11.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=5)5.4 (H=12)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.1)2 (-3.1)6T (-3.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.3)9 (-1.3)6 (-2.1) (+0.0)
7Jason Sanders0033333.03.0
8Jake Elliott1123555.05.0
9Dustin Hopkins3300999.09.0

Austin Seibert (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

8@ NE2211778.08.0
9@ DEN4411131313.013.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-0.1)18T (-0.1)24 (+1.4)24 (+1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.4)5T (-3.4)7 (-2.8)7 (-2.8)
7Miami Dolphins3130520000221.01.0
8Philadelphia Eagles13253401006610.010.0
9Washington Redskins2426820000222.02.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2500)

8@ NE27.0031830000335.05.0
9@ DEN24.0030230100555.05.0
10PROJ-Dodds18.803442.50.90.800. (H=29)9.8 (H=41)
10PROJ-Tremblay18.5034920.90.800.510.110.110.1 (H=31)10.1 (H=43)