Matchup Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Ravens 23, Panthers 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense25.1 (+1.1) (15)96 (-14) (24)291 (+38) (9)
Panthers Defense21.8 (-2.2) (10)95 (-15) (9)260 (+7) (17)

Carolina Panthers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Panthers Offense23.7 (-0.4) (18)136 (+25) (4)227 (-25) (22)
Ravens Defense14.4 (-9.6) (1)90 (-20) (7)190 (-62) (2)

Ravens Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Panthers defense.

Surprisingly, after a solid 2017 without the services of All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda, the Baltimore run game has taken a big step backward. Through 7 games, they sit 24th league-wide in yards per game and 31st per attempt. Lead runner Alex Collins’ breakout hasn’t carried over – he’s averaging just 3.55 yards per carry, and he’s only topped 59 in a game once. A big-play dynamo last year, has managed just 2 breakaway runs (15 yards or more) over his 87 rushes. Javorius Allen continues to plod along behind him, sitting at just 2.63 himself. It doesn’t help that the offensive line has struggled with injury and inconsistency. They should get right tackle James Hurst back this Sunday, which helps a bit, but will likely remain without left guard Alex Lewis. A struggling ground attack behind a shaky, beaten-up line is rarely a recipe for fantasy success. Collins’ mediocre 2018 looks set to continue against the Panthers’ formidable front.

The Carolina run defense has underachieved thus far in 2018, allowing opposing runners to average 4.61 yards per attempt. That’s a far cry from last season’s 3.80, but may be on the verge of turning around. The return of linebacker Thomas Davis from suspension may not seem like much, but he still brings a stabilizing presence against the run. With Davis and Luke Kuechly patrolling gaps and pursuing ball-carriers, it’s safe to expect at least noticeable improvement going forward. After all, a very close facsimile of this unit checked in 11th in the league last year in per-carry rushing, and 3rd on a per-game basis.

Ravens Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Panthers defense.

Joe Flacco is enjoying a rebirth of sorts after watching the Ravens draft Lamar Jackson. After a nightmarish 2017 that saw him struggle with nagging back woes and a toothless receiving corps, Flacco is back to his workmanlike ways. He’s averaging a career-high 295 yards per game, clearing 277 or more in 5 of 7 contests. Just as importantly, he’s avoiding sacks (just 12) and interceptions (4) and extending drives. As a result, he sits 15th league-wide in adjusted net yards per attempt, and there’s life in this passing game again. Michael Crabtree is thriving as a steady underneath threat, but the real story has been John Brown, who’s healthy and excelling as a downfield threat. He’s made Flacco’s deep arm, still one of the strongest in football, relevant again. The pair has hooked up 28 times thus far, and 9 have covered 20 yards or more. There’s very little upside beyond Brown – Flacco is staying close to the vest and peppering Crabtree and the tight ends with targets. But with Flacco throwing with poise and Brown running laps around defensive backs, it’s encouraging to see a playmaking spark again.

The Carolina pass defense just can’t get out of its own way. The secondary remains undermanned and starving for talent, even with rookie Donte Jackson added to the mix and excelling thus far. The rest of the group is simply too beatable. James Bradberry is an exceptionally up-and-down cover man, alternating great downfield coverage with terrible mental lapses. Slot specialist Captain Munnerlyn has been picked on relentlessly, and the safeties are installed for run support, not centerfield coverage. As a result, 3 of the Panthers’ last 4 opponents have easily topped 300 yards. And on the year, they’ve allowed 5 different receivers to notch 73 yards or more. Even with an occasionally-dominant pass rush up front, there are deficiencies all over the second and third levels.

Panthers Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

The Panthers are clearly placing their run game into the collective hands of Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton. The two have been quite successful to open the year – McCaffrey has averaged 4.85 yards per carry, while Newton remains a quintessential bully in the open field (and on the goal line). Between the two, there’s little need for the low-impact additions of C.J. Anderson. Still, for all their dynamism, they remain limited by an inconsistent front line. McCaffrey has been adept since his Stanford days at working through stacked boxes and creating yardage, and Newton is legendary at it. But when the edges are washed away, the option game suffers, which caps McCaffrey’s and Newton’s best attributes. There are talent and dynamism to spare in this unit, but the results aren’t always easy to project.

Baltimore’s run defense remains one of the league’s more suffocating units. Thanks to a stout front led by underrated run-stuffer Brandon Williams, they’re simply shutting down every running game they face. Opposing lead backs are averaging just 3.42 yards per carry, and only one (Joe Mixon) has topped 64 in a game. The linebacking corps isn’t the league’s most intimidating, but is led by sure tackler C.J. Mosley and a pair of run-focused safeties. It’s hard to project any run game to much efficiency against them, though the nimble Christian McCaffrey has a better outlook than most. Speedy change-of-pace runners Marcus Murphy, Phillip Lindsay, and Duke Johnson have found success, combining for 5.73 yards per rush over their smattering of attempts. If he’s given any creases at all, McCaffrey could conceivably test the Ravens’ so-so second level and produce a few chunk runs.

Panthers Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

After a terrible first half last Sunday, Cam Newton braved both the elements and the Eagles’ dominant front line to deliver majorly in the second. He hit on 21 of 30 throws over the final 2 frames, routinely churning out big throws to move the chains and generate points. Newton will never be a polished precision passer like Drew Brees, but when given time to plant and throw, he’s a truly elite creator. Still, his week-to-week fantasy outlook is never easy to project. He often comes out of the gates scattershot, struggling early and building to production. With all of his dynamism and intriguing weaponry at his disposal, though, that’s less of a concern these days. He has a dynamic high-point threat in Devin Funchess to go up and get some of his overthrows, and he checks down to a pair of dynamic options in Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen. Many passing games are more predictable and consistent, but few boast more snap-to-snap explosiveness and upside.

The Baltimore pass defense is rounding nicely into shape. Inconsistent throughout 2017, it’s bolstered itself into a strong unit, boasting numerous talented cover men and an active, disruptive pass rush. Through 7 games, they’ve only allowed a single quarterback (Baker Mayfield) to top 274 yards, and only the Jaguars have allowed fewer touchdowns through the air. (In fact, aside from Andy Dalton’s four-score explosion in Week 2, they’ve given up just four on the year.) Last week, they allowed Drew Brees to dink and dunk to a win, but gave up just 212 yards in all. Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr have enjoyed fine seasons thus far, and Jimmy Smith’s return to game shape should only sweeten things. There’s a bit of vulnerability when the safeties are forced to cover downfield, but it hasn’t been backbreaking since the Bengals game. And, of course, the unit still feeds off of Terrell Suggs (5.5 sacks) and a diverse pass rush that makes the secondary’s job even easier.

Panthers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.3)18 (-0.3)18 (+0.0)23 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.0)12 (-1.1)14 (-0.6)18 (+0.3)
5Eli Manning5622363262212022.522.521.224.2
6Alex Smith70213616320613017.517.515.815.8
7Carson Wentz6730373102033023.823.818.722.7

Joe Flacco (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $5300)

5@ CLE87295629801213015.
6@ TEN7525372381134015.315.312.912.9
7vs NO6823392792014022.422.419.619.6
8PROJ-Dodds26412851.41250.119.919.919.9 (H=47)19.9 (H=67)
8PROJ-Tremblay25412871.51.1260.120.420.420.4 (H=49)20.4 (H=70)
8PROJ-Bloom24352471.70.711018.618.618.6 (H=42)18.6 (H=59)

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4400)

5@ CLE5010003100111.01.0
6@ TEN20000012202.
7vs NO5115003917.
8PROJ-Dodds116003130. (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay016003130. (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom00000170. (H=0)1.3 (H=0)

Panthers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.5)6 (-5.1)9 (-4.2)7 (-5.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-4.6)3 (-6.4)3 (-5.4)3 (-7.0)
5Saquon Barkley48154804481224.928.926.928.9
5Elijhaa Penny000000000.
6Adrian Peterson371797010009.
6Kapri Bibbs26211021601.
7Wendell Smallwood35932022503.
7Corey Clement25860221602.

Alex Collins (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4600)

5@ CLE271259041706.
6@ TEN3419542000017.417.417.417.4
7vs NO2811380431004.
8PROJ-Dodds14550.42160. (H=21)12.1 (H=32)
8PROJ-Tremblay14560.42160. (H=21)12.2 (H=33)
8PROJ-Bloom15520.4290. (H=17)11.1 (H=28)

Javorius Allen (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

5@ CLE508340864407.813.88.812.8
6@ TEN28110331801.
7vs NO30330332102.
8PROJ-Dodds4150.13240. (H=9)8.1 (H=18)
8PROJ-Tremblay270.13240. (H=7)7.3 (H=15)
8PROJ-Bloom360.24240. (H=11)9.4 (H=24)

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6@ TEN141042000004.
7vs NO72000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds5180.10002.42.42.4 (H=2)2.4 (H=3)
8PROJ-Tremblay6240.1000333.0 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)

Panthers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.5)17 (-1.2)15 (-1.8)15 (-1.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.8)16 (-0.5)14 (-1.5)14 (-1.5)
5Odell Beckham52148131100026.034.027.435.4
5Sterling Shepard56747500007.511.59.511.5
6Paul Richardson52533111209.312.310.812.3
6Josh Doctson59632000002.
7Alshon Jeffery6410788100014.821.818.321.8
7Nelson Agholor59762000002.

John Brown (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5900)

5@ CLE591445800005.
6@ TEN41322800002.
7vs NO5077134100019.426.422.929.4
8PROJ-Dodds4640.31408.612.610.6 (H=17)12.6 (H=27)
8PROJ-Tremblay4660.30208.612.610.6 (H=17)12.6 (H=27)
8PROJ-Bloom5760.500010.615.613.1 (H=25)15.6 (H=39)

Michael Crabtree (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4800)

5@ CLE721266600006.612.69.612.6
6@ TEN409693100015.321.318.321.3
7vs NO48956600006.611.69.111.6
8PROJ-Dodds5620.300081310.5 (H=18)13.0 (H=35)
8PROJ-Tremblay5640.30008.213.210.7 (H=19)13.2 (H=36)
8PROJ-Bloom5580.40008.213.210.7 (H=19)13.2 (H=36)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

5@ CLE67755500005.510.58.010.5
6@ TEN541076000006139.513.0
7vs NO447323011303.
8PROJ-Dodds4490.20006.110.18.1 (H=13)10.1 (H=26)
8PROJ-Tremblay4500.30106.910.98.9 (H=16)10.9 (H=29)
8PROJ-Bloom4450.20005.79.77.7 (H=12)9.7 (H=24)

Chris Moore (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

5@ CLE2321200000232.53.0
6@ TEN39331200001.
7vs NO30211401902.
8PROJ-Dodds1120.10001.82.82.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay1130.10202.13.12.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
8PROJ-Bloom1150.10002.13.12.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)

Panthers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.4)31 (+6.5)31 (+5.8)31 (+7.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.7)31 (+8.7)31 (+7.9)31 (+10.1)
5Rhett Ellison55321701.
6Vernon Davis363348110.813.812.313.8
7Zach Ertz65119138013.822.818.325.8

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2700)

5@ CLE33311601.
6@ TEN2042200243.04.0
7vs NO2611816.
8PROJ-Dodds2210. (H=5)5.3 (H=13)
8PROJ-Tremblay2220. (H=5)5.4 (H=13)
8PROJ-Bloom2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

5@ CLE3921100121.52.0
6@ TEN4742700.
7vs NO3221800.
8PROJ-Dodds2160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
8PROJ-Tremblay2190. (H=4)4.5 (H=10)
8PROJ-Bloom150. (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

5@ CLE2121700.
6@ TEN181000000.00.0
7vs NO182000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
8PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Maxx Williams (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

5@ CLE2722800.
6@ TEN330000000.00.0
7vs NO2000000.
8PROJ-Dodds1700.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=2)
8PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Panthers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (-1.2)25T (-1.2)28T (-0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.2)25 (+1.2)28 (+2.5) (+0.0)
5Aldrick Rosas3322111114.014.0
6Dustin Hopkins3322111114.014.0
7Jake Elliott1222556.06.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5@ CLE34009910.010.0
6@ TEN0033333.03.0
7vs NO1123555.05.0

Panthers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.7)4 (-2.7)6 (-2.8)6 (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)10 (-2.2)11T (-1.8)11T (-1.8)
5New York Giants3335012000555.05.0
6Washington Redskins1735011200778.08.0
7Philadelphia Eagles2137120000222.02.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2800)

5@ CLE12.00416510007711.011.0
6@ TEN0.00106110000111121.021.0
7vs NO24.0033910100333.03.0
8PROJ-Dodds20.603252.40.90.700.4999.0 (H=24)9.0 (H=32)
8PROJ-Tremblay20.753342.10.90.800. (H=26)9.5 (H=35)

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-5.8)1 (-5.8)2 (-5.0)1 (-5.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.8)4 (-4.9)6 (-4.1)5 (-4.6)
4Ben Roethlisberger632747274111-1016.616.615.915.9
5Baker Mayfield80254334211223022.422.419.022.0
6Marcus Mariota4410151170022508.
7Drew Brees7122302122043018.918.916.816.8

Cam Newton (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $5800)

5vs NYG70213523722829020.820.818.418.4
6@ WAS60274027521943025.125.124.324.3
7@ PHI59253926920749026.426.425.725.7
8PROJ-Dodds20322081.30.99410.421.221.221.2 (H=48)21.2 (H=68)
8PROJ-Tremblay20322141.30.99420.421.621.621.6 (H=50)21.6 (H=70)
8PROJ-Bloom23372061.51.18410.321.121.121.1 (H=48)21.1 (H=67)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.0)1 (-9.9)1 (-8.5)1 (-10.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-9.7)1 (-11.6)1 (-10.0)1 (-11.7)
4James Conner509190732504.
4Jaylen Samuels000000000.
5Carlos Hyde2817630321407.
5Duke Johnson41535011704.
6Derrick Henry12721011502.
6Dion Lewis3259022501.
7Alvin Kamara39176412211013.515.514.515.5
7Mark Ingram3512320221004.

Christian McCaffrey (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $7000)

5vs NYG69175806535115.320.317.820.3
6@ WAS608200874606.613.610.113.6
7@ PHI5972906651081411.014.0
8PROJ-Dodds15590.35370.1121714.5 (H=28)17.0 (H=38)
8PROJ-Tremblay14580.36380.1121815.0 (H=29)18.0 (H=42)
8PROJ-Bloom13440.26380.210.616.613.6 (H=25)16.6 (H=37)

C.J. Anderson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

5vs NYG849000000.
6@ WAS10000000000.00.0
7@ PHI30000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds4140.1000222.0 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
8PROJ-Tremblay3110.10201.91.91.9 (H=1)1.9 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.1)3 (-6.2)4 (-5.2)3 (-7.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.6)4 (-8.4)3 (-7.5)3 (-9.9)
4Antonio Brown6011562100012.217.214.717.2
4JuJu Smith-Schuster601146000006.
5Rashard Higgins314366100012.615.614.115.6
5Jarvis Landry801056900006.911.99.411.9
6Tajae Sharpe35223300003.
6Corey Davis38412400002.
7Michael Thomas669769100012.919.916.419.9
7TreQuan Smith52634400004.

Devin Funchess (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5400)

5vs NYG51745300005.
6@ WAS588574100013.418.415.918.4
7@ PHI5411662100012.
8PROJ-Dodds4530.40007.711.79.7 (H=15)11.7 (H=26)
8PROJ-Tremblay4550.40007.911.99.9 (H=16)11.9 (H=27)
8PROJ-Bloom5610.50009.114.111.6 (H=21)14.1 (H=36)

D.J. Moore (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3600)

5vs NYG294449011806.710.78.710.7
6@ WAS275459011807.711.75.79.7
7@ PHI27532900002.
8PROJ-Dodds2290.21404.56.55.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=14)
8PROJ-Tremblay3360.21305.18.16.7 (H=11)8.2 (H=21)
8PROJ-Bloom3310.2170586.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=20)

Torrey Smith (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3500)

5vs NYG461000000000.00.0
6@ WAS425543100010.315.314.817.3
7@ PHI30646100006.
8PROJ-Dodds2220.20003.45.44.4 (H=4)5.4 (H=10)
8PROJ-Tremblay1600000.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom3260.20003.86.85.3 (H=6)6.8 (H=15)

Jarius Wright (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

5vs NYG30632500002.
6@ WAS3731300000.
7@ PHI322237013407.
8PROJ-Dodds2210.10002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
8PROJ-Tremblay2260.20103.95.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
8PROJ-Bloom21100001.13.12.1 (H=1)3.1 (H=4)

Curtis Samuel (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

5vs NYG12423710009.711.710.711.7
6@ WAS30000000000.00.0
7@ PHI19111602918.
8PROJ-Dodds1140.11402.43.43.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay1140.11302.33.32.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)
8PROJ-Bloom1150.1180. (H=4)4.6 (H=7)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.5)21 (+0.4)16 (-0.3)19 (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.4)23 (+2.9)22 (+1.7)23 (+2.5)
4Vance McDonald39556206.211.26.710.2
5David Njoku721166906.912.99.912.9
6Anthony Firkser15222502.
7Ben Watson356643110.316.313.316.3

Greg Olsen (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4200)

6@ WAS59744804.
7@ PHI5952516.
8PROJ-Dodds3320. (H=7)7.4 (H=15)
8PROJ-Tremblay3260. (H=6)6.8 (H=13)
8PROJ-Bloom3240. (H=7)7.2 (H=14)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-2.6)2 (-2.6)2 (-3.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.3)1 (-3.3)1 (-4.3) (+0.0)
4Chris Boswell2200666.00.0
5Greg Joseph2301666.06.0
6Ryan Succop0000000.00.0
7Wil Lutz1133666.06.0

Graham Gano (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5vs NYG4433151519.019.0
6@ WAS1101333.03.0
7@ PHI0012111.01.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.6)5 (-2.6)10 (-1.7)10 (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.6)5 (-3.6)10 (-2.0)10 (-2.0)
4Pittsburgh Steelers2645120100444.04.0
5Cleveland Browns9410211006612.012.0
6Tennessee Titans2136101000222.02.0
7New Orleans Saints2335110000111.01.0

Carolina Panthers (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

5vs NYG31.0043212101191912.012.0
6@ WAS23.0028830000333.03.0
7@ PHI17.0034240100667.07.0
8PROJ-Dodds22.803872.51.10.700.4999.0 (H=20)9.0 (H=35)
8PROJ-Tremblay22.754042.71.10.700. (H=21)9.2 (H=37)