Matchup Analysis: New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jets 19, Bears 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense26.0 (+2.0) (13)122 (+11) (12)208 (-45) (27)
Bears Defense22.3 (-1.7) (11)88 (-22) (4)262 (+9) (18)

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense28.3 (+4.3) (6)131 (+20) (6)250 (-2) (20)
Jets Defense25.1 (+1.1) (17)106 (-4) (14)266 (+13) (21)

Jets Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Bilal Powell left Week 7 with a neck injury, and his status going forward is up in the air. And without him, the Jets’ 15th-ranked rushing attack should sink dramatically. Lead dog Isaiah Crowell boasts gaudy numbers (5.67 yards per rush and 66 per game), but they’re fairly hollow, built on a pair of massive games. He’s been held below 3.2 per carry in each of his other 5 contests, failing to top 40 yards in any of them. Crowell is a build-to-speed runner without much power or elusiveness, and he rarely picks up yardage that isn’t blocked for him. Operating behind a below-average run-blocking line, his outlook is wildly unpredictable from week to week, but with a low floor for a featured guy. If Powell can’t go, Trenton Cannon will see a few snaps, but very little rushing opportunity. It would be Crowell’s backfield, for better or worse, and it wouldn’t project to much efficiency. This unit needs Powell, whose 4.29 per rush have come fairly consistently.

Chicago’s run defense is a stout unit, but the last two weeks have brought a small degree of pause. After allowing running backs just 2.93 yards per carry over their first 4 games, they’ve given up 4.83 over the last two. Frank Gore gashed the tired Bears in the fourth quarter and overtime of Week 6, and Sony Michel found plenty of room before leaving week 7 with an injury. It’s not much of a sample size to read from – the Dolphins game was a long, grinding affair in near-100 heat, and Michel’s replacements didn’t do much after he left – but it’s worth noting the recent dip. There’s still little reason to doubt this talented group altogether, though it might not be quite as suffocating as it once looked.

Jets Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Sam Darnold’s development took a breather last Sunday, resulting in possibly his worst start to date. Darnold hit on just 17 of 42 throws, producing a pitiful 4.90 yards per attempt and his first 3-interception game. Even when he wasn’t harassed by the Vikings’ formidable pass rush, Darnold threw erratically and failed to get onto his receivers’ pages, as has happened often throughout the year. It’s important to remember that, by team design, Darnold will be eased into the rigors of the NFL in 2018. The Jets like to manage his contributions closely, and his downfield game isn’t very threatening. As a result, deep-ball playmaker Robby Anderson, who represents just about all of the dynamism in the Jets’ stable, is greatly minimized. Darnold is showing progress, but he’s not close to fantasy relevance as a low-volume rookie. That’s a shaky bet reserved for guys with palpable upside, which Darnold’s safe, sanitized approach doesn’t offer. And there’s not a single pass-catcher on roster that merits any fantasy attention.

The Bears pass defense, stout early in the season, has taken a noticeable dip over the past two weeks. Unsurprisingly, it’s correlated with Khalil Mack’s Week 7 ankle injury. Looking like the Defensive Player of the Year through the first five games, Mack was hobbled against the Dolphins and Patriots, unable to put much real pressure on either Brock Osweiler or Tom Brady. The Bears field a deep defense, but Mack’s impact can hardly be overstated, and the drop-off is noticeable. It’s also worth pointing out that, despite boasting an elite cornerback duo and a fine free safety, the Bears have already allowed 8 different wideouts to produce 60 yards or more – and 6 have topped 85. There are enough lapses to allow for 1-3 splash plays a week, and they’re no fantasy deterrent for opposing receivers. The Bears need Mack back to his pocket-busting ways.

Bears Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jets defense.

Jordan Howard continues to look like a plodding, one-gear runner not suited for Matt Nagy’s creative offense. The Bears’ run blocking has improved, but Howard has averaged just 3.46 yards over 90 carries thus far, finishing at 3.3 or below in 4 of 6 games. Week 7 might have been his low point, racking up just 39 yards on 12 attempts against a Patriots defense that’s routinely gashed by the run. Howard’s only value to this backfield is as a grind-it-out inside runner, and if he’s not producing in that role, he’s of little use to Nagy. Explosive dual threat Tarik Cohen also underwhelmed on the ground last week, but is the far more dynamic option. Cohen has a tremendous initial burst and becomes a blur in the secondary when he’s schemed open. His usage is never very projectable, but his splash-play potential is ever-present, and Nagy loves to get him into space.

The Jets run defense, solid to open the year, has shown noticeable cracks of late. Over their last 3 games, they’ve allowed running backs to rack up 5.38 yards per carry. Two weeks ago they allowed the Colts’ Marlon Mack to run wild (12 for 89) in his first game back from injury, and last Sunday they let Minnesota’s Latavius Murray snap out of a horrid slump himself (15 for 69 and 2 touchdowns). There are bright spots in this unit, from inconsistent yet dominant lineman Leonard Williams to impressive second-year safety Jamal Adams. But gap coverage and tackling are still issues, and holes still open up on the second level, as seen on Murray’s untouched 38-yard scoring run. This isn’t a deterring matchup for fantasy purposes at all.

Bears Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jets defense.

Mitchell Trubisky continues to flounder between erratic and explosive. His mobility and creativity are top-notch, and he routinely uses his athleticism to create throws for himself. He and tight end Trey Burton (290 yards and 3 touchdowns over the last 4 games) are developing a great, instinctive relationship over the middle and down the seams. But Trubisky’s mechanics leave a lot to be desired, with too many throws coming off his back foot and often with terrible placement. Trubisky likes to test downfield coverage, but isn’t powerful or accurate enough to win many one-on-one battles with his arm. As a result, he’s thrown a few head-scratching interceptions over the last two weeks, and had a few more dropped. At least coach Matt Nagy is embracing his dynamism. Trubisky is encouraged to move around and look for splash plays, which do pop up from this underrated stable of playmakers. He has, after all, averaged 334 yards and thrown 11 touchdowns over his last 3 games. He’s not consistent enough to be looked at as a fantasy QB1, but at least he’s turning Burton, Tarik Cohen, and occasionally Allen Robinson into impact plays.

The Jets pass defense is definitely improving. The pass rush has impressed despite a lack of big names, and cornerback Morris Claiborne is covering at an All-Pro level. So is Darryl Roberts, who’s been outstanding in place of the injured Trumaine Johnson. But injuries and wild bouts of inconsistency continue to hamper this group, and they’re still among fantasy’s juiciest matchups. Three of their last 4 opponents have topped 300 yards, and all 4 have thrown multiple touchdowns. The big problem lies with the safeties, who continue to struggle in help coverage down the field. Perhaps Terrence Brooks, who’s always been a playmaker in limited snaps, will provide a spark in place of the injured Marcus Maye. There are pieces in place for this group to finish strong down the stretch, but the fantasy world has yet to see it.

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.7)21 (+0.7)19 (+0.2)18 (-0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.2)24 (+1.9)21 (+1.4)
4Jameis Winston3516201451217010.
6Brock Osweiler7828443803228029.829.828.031.0
7Tom Brady6425362773116025.525.522.722.7

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $4500)

5vs DEN6210221983135021.421.419.419.4
6vs IND7124302802168021.821.819.019.0
7vs MIN71174220613618119.
8PROJ-Dodds19322281.21.2360. (H=37)16.2 (H=55)
8PROJ-Tremblay19322301.11.1470. (H=36)16.1 (H=54)
8PROJ-Bloom18341861.21.6390.1141414.0 (H=28)14.0 (H=42)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-4.8)5 (-5.7)4 (-5.8)5 (-6.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.2)16 (-0.9)14 (-2.2)16 (-1.2)
4Peyton Barber31724021603.
4Ronald Jones II201029021-
6Frank Gore301510101118011.912.912.415.9
6Kenyan Drake4913570642107.811.87.810.8
7James White451140010857221.729.725.729.7
7Kenjon Barner171036000003.

Isaiah Crowell (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $3700)

5vs DEN251521911112029.130.129.633.1
6vs IND2913400221205.
7vs MIN331129031210565.56.0
8PROJ-Dodds15630.42140.110.712.711.7 (H=23)12.7 (H=44)
8PROJ-Tremblay14620.4216010.212.211.2 (H=21)12.2 (H=41)
8PROJ-Bloom15540.421108.910.99.9 (H=17)10.9 (H=33)

Trenton Cannon (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3400)

5vs DEN10000000000.00.0
6vs IND30000000000.00.0
7vs MIN23240546907.311.39.311.3
8PROJ-Dodds4160.12140. (H=6)6.2 (H=13)
8PROJ-Tremblay10420.321507.59.58.5 (H=15)9.5 (H=29)
8PROJ-Bloom41303310.1586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=21)

Bilal Powell (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

5vs DEN342099000009.
6vs IND321659010005.
7vs MIN14520011502.
8PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
8PROJ-Tremblay000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.5)26 (+6.0)27 (+5.7)26 (+7.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+4.9)30 (+9.2)30 (+9.1)30 (+13.1)
4DeSean Jackson3985112000011.216.213.719.2
4Mike Evans57965900005.911.98.911.9
6Albert Wilson509615521-5027.
6Danny Amendola751185900005.913.99.913.9
7Josh Gordon6174100000010.
7Julian Edelman63853610009.614.612.114.6

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4100)

5vs DEN3253123200024.327.325.830.3
6vs IND53533900003.
7vs MIN621034400004.
8PROJ-Dodds4600.40008.412.410.4 (H=22)12.4 (H=38)
8PROJ-Tremblay4630.30008.112.110.1 (H=21)12.1 (H=36)
8PROJ-Bloom4530.40007.711.79.7 (H=19)11.7 (H=34)

Jermaine Kearse (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4300)

5vs DEN39411400001.
6vs IND591099400009.418.413.918.4
7vs MIN642000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds3430.20005.58.57.0 (H=12)8.5 (H=18)
8PROJ-Tremblay3380.2000586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=17)
8PROJ-Bloom4370.30005.59.57.5 (H=13)9.5 (H=22)

Andre Roberts (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

5vs DEN221400000.
6vs IND70000000000.00.0
7vs MIN31622100002.
8PROJ-Dodds2250.20003.75.74.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=13)
8PROJ-Tremblay3340.20004.67.66.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=22)
8PROJ-Bloom21900001.93.93.1 (H=3)4.1 (H=7)

Rishard Matthews (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Deontay Burnett (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIN1521900000.
8PROJ-Dodds190.10001.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
8PROJ-Tremblay1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Charone Peake (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIN91000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay0500000.50.50.5 (H=0)0.5 (H=0)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.2)13 (-1.2)15 (-0.5)13 (-1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.5)11 (-2.1)14 (-1.3)10 (-2.4)
4Cameron Brate37432918.911.910.411.9
6Nick OLeary524449110.914.912.914.9
7Dwayne Allen5500000.

Chris Herndon (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $2800)

6vs IND282256111.613.612.613.6
7vs MIN247442110.
8PROJ-Dodds2250. (H=5)5.7 (H=14)
8PROJ-Tremblay2250. (H=5)5.7 (H=14)
8PROJ-Bloom3360.4697.5 (H=12)9.0 (H=32)

Neal Sterling (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs IND36221301.
7vs MIN322000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay1900.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jordan Leggett (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

5vs DEN2911100121.52.0
6vs IND220000000.00.0
7vs MIN221000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay0200.20.20.2 (H=0)0.2 (H=0)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-1.3)3T (-1.3)6T (-1.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.2)18 (-0.2)16 (-0.1) (+0.0)
4Chandler Catanzaro1111444.00.0
6Jason Sanders3322111114.014.0
7Stephen Gostkowski1155888.08.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5vs DEN2344101011.011.0
6vs IND7733242427.027.0
7vs MIN1122557.07.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (+1.0)23T (+1.0)20 (+0.5)20 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.2)23 (+2.2)20 (+0.9)20 (+0.9)
4Tampa Bay Buccaneers484831000011-3.0-3.0
6Miami Dolphins2846721200887.07.0
7New England Patriots3145322002181819.019.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2200)

5vs DEN16.0043641000667.07.0
6vs IND34.0042803101141413.013.0
7vs MIN37.003161000011-3.0-3.0
8PROJ-Dodds25.303452.110.600. (H=20)7.8 (H=31)
8PROJ-Tremblay26.253492.110.600. (H=19)7.5 (H=29)

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.2)19 (-0.3)17 (-0.1)19 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.7)27 (+3.6)27 (+3.5)27 (+4.3)
4Blake Bortles77293838821328029.229.225.328.3
5Case Keenum7735513772100025.925.922.125.1
6Andrew Luck6923433014327028.828.825.728.7
7Kirk Cousins692540241202-1020.020.017.517.5

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6100)

6@ MIA70223131631847031.531.528.331.3
7vs NE82265033322681136.836.833.436.4
8PROJ-Dodds21332351.815320.322.922.922.9 (H=58)22.9 (H=74)
8PROJ-Tremblay20322251.715360.322.522.522.5 (H=57)22.5 (H=72)
8PROJ-Bloom19292221.81.25220.220.520.520.5 (H=48)20.5 (H=61)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.3)17 (+0.6)17 (+0.0)16 (-0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.5)20 (+2.1)19 (+1.0)20 (+1.0)
4T.J. Yeldon48185213348122.025.021.524.0
4Leonard Fournette241130011503.
5Phillip Lindsay2912610432008.111.19.611.1
5Devontae Booker22000655905.910.98.410.9
6Marlon Mack241289021409.310.39.810.3
6Nyheim Hines303140322103.
7Latavius Murray58156922214020.322.321.322.3
7Roc Thomas3123000002.

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5800)

6@ MIA3453119790018.125.119.624.1
7vs NE42614012869114.322.318.322.3
8PROJ-Dodds7280.25420.29.414.412.0 (H=20)14.5 (H=35)
8PROJ-Tremblay6250.24370.28.612.610.7 (H=17)12.7 (H=28)
8PROJ-Bloom6220.25460.39.814.812.4 (H=22)14.9 (H=37)

Jordan Howard (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4800)

6@ MIA361469010006.
7vs NE4612391119010.811.811.311.8
8PROJ-Dodds15570.421209.311.310.3 (H=18)11.3 (H=27)
8PROJ-Tremblay14550.421209.111.110.1 (H=18)11.1 (H=26)
8PROJ-Bloom15560.815010.911.911.4 (H=22)11.9 (H=30)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.6)27 (+7.2)26 (+5.3)29 (+8.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.9)32 (+12.5)31 (+9.7)32 (+13.8)
4Donte Moncrief6055109100016.921.919.424.9
4Dede Westbrook571391300111014.123.116.625.1
5Demaryius Thomas4765105100016.521.519.024.5
5Courtland Sutton59621810007.
6Chester Rogers4610455100011.515.513.515.5
6Marcus Johnson343252100011.
7Adam Thielen66109110100017.026.021.529.0
7Aldrick Robinson8313410009.410.49.910.4

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5100)

6@ MIA4655110019011.916.914.419.9
7vs NE64432601002.
8PROJ-Dodds4440.31406.610.68.6 (H=15)10.6 (H=23)
8PROJ-Tremblay3410.31506.49.47.9 (H=13)9.4 (H=19)
8PROJ-Bloom4550.3150.18.412.410.4 (H=21)12.4 (H=30)

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5600)

6@ MIA596564100012.417.414.917.4
7vs NE6051400000.
8PROJ-Dodds3360.30005.48.46.9 (H=9)8.4 (H=14)
8PROJ-Tremblay4480.40007.211.29.2 (H=14)11.2 (H=23)
8PROJ-Bloom4570.50008.712.710.7 (H=19)12.7 (H=29)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3400)

6@ MIA41412910008.
7vs NE52723500003.
8PROJ-Dodds2290.20004.16.15.1 (H=6)6.1 (H=13)
8PROJ-Tremblay2270.20003.95.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
8PROJ-Bloom1140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)

Kevin White (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6@ MIA160000000000.00.0
7vs NE20226400006.
8PROJ-Dodds1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay0300000.30.30.3 (H=0)0.3 (H=0)

Josh Bellamy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6@ MIA160000000000.00.0
7vs NE194000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds11100001.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
8PROJ-Tremblay180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.9)8 (-2.4)11 (-1.7)8 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+0.8)20 (+0.4)19 (+0.7)20 (+0.2)
4James OShaughnessy34322802.
5Matt LaCosse19221901.
6Eric Ebron497471113.
7Kyle Rudolph56411601.

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4800)

6@ MIA51442318.312.310.312.3
7vs NE70119126118.627.623.130.6
8PROJ-Dodds4420.46.610.68.6 (H=12)10.6 (H=24)
8PROJ-Tremblay4410.46.510.58.5 (H=12)10.5 (H=24)
8PROJ-Bloom4450. (H=17)12.1 (H=31)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (+0.1)17T (+0.1)23T (-0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.7)27 (+1.7)23 (+1.5) (+0.0)
4Josh Lambo3322111113.00.0
5Brandon McManus1111444.04.0
6Adam Vinatieri2244101010.010.0
7Dan Bailey3444131314.014.0

Cody Parkey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6@ MIA0144444.04.0
7vs NE1144778.08.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.3)23 (+1.3)22 (+1.2)22 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.1)15 (-0.1)18 (-0.0)18 (-0.0)
4Jacksonville Jaguars1217830010559.09.0
5Denver Broncos3451211100554.04.0
6Indianapolis Colts4237421100662.02.0
7Minnesota Vikings1726333100111112.012.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4100)

6@ MIA31.0054102100665.05.0
7vs NE38.0038111200773.03.0
8PROJ-Dodds18.903182.41.10.800.510.710.710.7 (H=24)10.7 (H=29)
8PROJ-Tremblay19.253402.11.10.900.510.610.610.6 (H=23)10.6 (H=29)