Matchup Analysis: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Broncos 22, Chiefs 32

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense23.6 (-0.5) (19)125 (+14) (8)251 (-1) (19)
Chiefs Defense26.0 (+2.0) (22)119 (+8) (23)317 (+63) (31)

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense37.1 (+13.1) (1)124 (+13) (10)313 (+60) (5)
Broncos Defense23.4 (-0.6) (13)148 (+37) (31)230 (-23) (10)

Broncos Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Denver’s rushing offense got back on track in a prime matchup last week, posting 131 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns against the Cardinals. Phillip Lindsay led the backfield in snaps and carries as he averaged 6.4 yards per attempt with a touchdown. Lindsay has averaged at least 4.5 yards per rushing attempt in every game this season, looking spectacular as long as the Broncos continue giving him the ball. This backfield remains a pure committee though, as Royce Freeman had just one fewer carry than Lindsay last week despite looking significantly worse with just 2.8 yards per attempt. Freeman did suffer an ankle injury that landed him on the injury report as questionable, so his status will be worth monitoring. If Freeman were to miss, Lindsay will immediately see a huge opportunity.

The Chiefs have struggled against the run this season, giving up the third-most rushing yards per attempt (5.2) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns (9) on the season. While a plus game script helped them shut down the Bengals offense last week, the Chiefs were taken to the bank by Sony Michel in Week 6 and allowed both Broncos running backs to put up solid numbers with just under 70 rushing yards and a touchdown a piece in their Week 4 meeting. Using DVOA, this unit ranks dead last against the run coming into Week 8. The linebacker position is a serious liability while the defensive line continues to sell out against the pass instead of improving against the run. Even counting last week’s dreadful showing from the Bengals, the Chiefs have allowed an opposing running back to amass at least 50 rushing yards in five straight outings. The Broncos backfield will look for a repeat of their Week 4 performance, if not even better, in this week’s matchup--especially if the Chiefs remain without Justin Houston here.

Broncos Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Broncos passing offense was limited last week due to the game script and impressive play by their defense. Case Keenum has been a liability for this team all season long despite posting palatable fantasy numbers in three outings this season. Keenum had a stretch of three zero-touchdown games in a row and now has at least one interception in all seven games to start the season. The watch for Chad Kelly to take over may have been stalled by the news events of this week, but still, keep an eye on this quarterback situation going forward. The Broncos receiving group has no lack of distractions either, with trade rumors swirling around both top wideouts. Emmanuel Sanders has been dominant at times this season, including posting over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last two outings in addition to a passing touchdown on a trick play last week. He suffered a minor ankle injury last week, but is likely to still play. Sanders handily leads the team in targets as the primary underneath passing option while Demaryius Thomas has struggled from the ineffectiveness of Keenum. Thomas had another mediocre outing last week and has crossed the 70-yard mark just once this season.

With star safety Eric Berry having yet to play a snap this season, the Chiefs secondary has taken a ton of flak this season, much of which was rightfully show as they are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game (332.7) while opposing wide receivers and quarterbacks both rank within the top-10 in fantasy points per game when facing the Chiefs. Last week was a surprisingly dominant performance though as they shut down the Bengals offense with strong play from both the secondary and a defensive line missing Justin Houston for the second straight week. The line has been a strength for the Chiefs while their secondary has played better in recent weeks, allowing just one touchdown to wide receivers in their last four games--including limiting the top two Broncos receivers to fewer than 50 receiving yards each in their last meeting just a few weeks ago. While the Chiefs secondary remains the primary liability here with their linebackers and safeties particularly vulnerable to tight ends and big plays by wide receivers, they have not played as poorly as portrayed within the past few weeks while Case Keenum has really struggled this season.

Chiefs Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Kareem Hunt was spectacular again last week, albeit with most of his fantasy production coming through the air. Hunt has led this rushing offense with at least 80 yards on the ground in five consecutive games and five rushing touchdowns in his last five outings. With the big lead last week, Spencer Ware managed to mix in with eight carries for 59 yards--his biggest workload since Week 1. Hunt remains the clear top option here though, as he is running and catching the ball about as well as any other running back in the league right now. The offensive line in Kansas City also continues to play at a high level despite mounting injuries. They have been without center Mitch Morse since around halftime of Week 6, lost right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to a season-ending leg injury in Week 5, and have now lost backup center Jordan Devey for the season with a pectoral injury. Things will certainly have to shift around to keep this line afloat, but strong play by their tackles should continue to carry them to at least an average performance.

The Broncos shut down a struggling Cardinals ground game last week after getting thrashed by opposing running backs for three straight weeks, giving up 677 rushing yards over that span from Weeks 4 thru 6. Linebacker Todd Davis played much better while the defensive line stepped up in a big way. Context must be added to this performance though, as the Cardinals have the worst rushing offense in football by a large margin with a terrible offensive line while suffering from an even worse game script. That outing was really set up on a tee for the Broncos, whereas this week should be much more of a challenge against a better Chiefs offensive line and a ton of offensive weapons with Hunt and the mobile Mahomes both playing at very high levels.

Chiefs Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Patrick Mahomes continued his campaign of dominance last week with a sixth straight game of 300+ yards passing and his fourth game with four or more passing touchdowns. While his interceptions have been up in recent weeks with five in the last three outings, Mahomes still looks dominant making plays from all kinds of angles and places on the field. Tyreek Hill continues to serve as a top option for Mahomes, finding the end zone for the second straight week as he posted over 60 receiving yards for the third straight week. Hill dropped a would-be long touchdown pass last week, otherwise, his outing could have been massive for the second week in a row. Travis Kelce turned in another consistent performance with 95 receiving yards as he now is averaging 93 yards per game since his Week 1 stinker with at least five receptions per game over that span. Kelce has been held out of the end zone for three straight weeks now though, as Kareem Hunt has been the preferred red zone target as of late. Hunt has put together back-to-back outstanding performances through the air with 11 targets and 160 receiving yards

Kareen Hunt has now put together back to back outstanding performances, particularly through the air to haul in 10 of 11 targets for 160 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns over that span. Hunt had just one game with more than one reception for seven yards leading up to Week 6.

The Broncos passing defense had a massive week with six sacks and three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns by cornerback Chris Harris Jr and linebacker Todd Davis. The secondary finally came back to life in this game as cornerback Bradley Roby gained back some credibility after a poor showing to start the season. Roby allowed just three receptions for 17 yards with three pass breakups when in coverage. It is important to not overreact to last week’s performance though, as taken in context, the Broncos were facing a rookie quarterback at the helm of one of the worst offenses in the league. The pass rush continues to be impressive with a couple of the best defensive ends in football attacking opposing quarterbacks. The stage is set much differently this week though as the Broncos face the absolute best offense in football with a quarterback on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Josh Rosen. While the Broncos should be able to apply consistent pressure, their cornerbacks will need a repeat performance this week to stand a chance against this high flying Chiefs passing offense.

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.6)26 (+3.5)26 (+3.5)26 (+4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.7)11 (-1.8)9 (-2.6)11 (-2.1)
4Case Keenum6021332450100011.311.38.88.8
5Blake Bortles83336143014434130.930.924.628.6
6Tom Brady7824353401032127.227.221.825.8
7Andy Dalton5015291481100010.410.48.98.9

Case Keenum (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5100)

5@ NYJ7735513772100025.925.922.125.1
6vs LAR6525413222116023.723.720.523.5
7@ ARI5914211611144011.511.59.89.8
8PROJ-Dodds24372751.51.2150191919.0 (H=46)19.0 (H=64)
8PROJ-Tremblay23372651.51.216018.618.618.6 (H=45)18.6 (H=61)
8PROJ-Bloom23342361.71.511017.217.217.2 (H=39)17.2 (H=54)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.4)31 (+8.0)31 (+7.9)31 (+8.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.4)24 (+3.8)24 (+3.7)24 (+3.9)
4Phillip Lindsay24126912210013.915.914.915.9
4Royce Freeman168671000012.712.712.712.7
5T.J. Yeldon771053010869118.
5Corey Grant218000000.
6Sony Michel37241062100022.622.622.625.6
6James White336390755309.214.211.714.2
7Joe Mixon451350053105.
7Mark Walton14410000001.

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5200)

5@ NYJ2912610432008.111.19.611.1
6vs LAR204180764806.612.69.612.6
7@ ARI3514901116015.616.616.116.6
8PROJ-Dodds16790.52190.113.415.414.5 (H=31)15.5 (H=44)
8PROJ-Tremblay17840.52190.113.915.915.0 (H=33)16.0 (H=46)
8PROJ-Bloom16800.43210. (H=32)16.2 (H=47)

Devontae Booker (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

5@ NYJ22000655905.910.98.410.9
6vs LAR222150321402.
7@ ARI600011-10-
8PROJ-Dodds3130.12190. (H=7)6.4 (H=13)
8PROJ-Tremblay3130.13200. (H=9)7.5 (H=17)
8PROJ-Bloom5170.14210.1597.0 (H=11)9.0 (H=24)

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3800)

5@ NYJ305310431604.
6vs LAR25922000002.
7@ ARI181337100009.
8PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
8PROJ-Tremblay4180.10102.52.52.5 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.8)21 (+0.8)20 (+0.0)20 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-4.0)10 (-3.6)10 (-3.8)10 (-4.4)
4Emmanuel Sanders547545011806.311.38.811.3
4Courtland Sutton42635100005.
5Donte Moncrief681567600007.613.610.613.6
5Keelan Cole741047000007.
6Julian Edelman717454117012.
6Chris Hogan47447800007.811.89.811.8
7A.J. Green48147117000011.718.715.221.7
7Cody Core14333000003.

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6500)

5@ NYJ731497200007.216.211.716.2
6vs LAR56107115100017.524.521.027.5
7@ ARI4376102100021.627.624.330.3
8PROJ-Dodds6790.414010.716.713.7 (H=25)16.7 (H=40)
8PROJ-Tremblay6780.402010.416.413.4 (H=24)16.4 (H=39)
8PROJ-Bloom5710.500010.115.112.6 (H=22)15.1 (H=33)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4900)

5@ NYJ4765105100016.521.519.024.5
6vs LAR484357100011.714.713.214.7
7@ ARI41654200004.
8PROJ-Dodds5620.300081310.5 (H=18)13.0 (H=34)
8PROJ-Tremblay4550.30007.311.39.3 (H=15)11.3 (H=27)
8PROJ-Bloom5490.50007.912.910.4 (H=18)12.9 (H=34)

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

5@ NYJ59621810007.
6vs LAR35435800005.
7@ ARI40312810008.
8PROJ-Dodds3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=9)8.1 (H=19)
8PROJ-Tremblay3380.2000586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=19)
8PROJ-Bloom3470.50007.710.79.2 (H=17)10.7 (H=31)

Tim Patrick (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

5@ NYJ611600000.
6vs LAR20000000000.00.0
7@ ARI160000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay190.10001.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.2)26 (+2.9)27 (+3.1)27 (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.7)21 (+1.0)21 (+0.9)21 (+0.8)
4Jeff Heuerman53745705.
5Niles Paul35976506.513.510.013.5
6Rob Gronkowski77439709.712.711.212.7
7C.J. Uzomah57221317.

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2600)

5@ NYJ53421801.
6vs LAR58632302.
7@ ARI480000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds2260. (H=6)5.8 (H=16)
8PROJ-Tremblay2230. (H=5)5.5 (H=14)
8PROJ-Bloom21901.93.92.9 (H=2)3.9 (H=8)

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

5@ NYJ19221901.
6vs LAR2741700.
7@ ARI18111201.
8PROJ-Dodds1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
8PROJ-Tremblay2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
8PROJ-Bloom1100121.5 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (+0.1)17T (+0.1)18 (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+1.2)25T (+1.2)23T (+1.5) (+0.0)
4Brandon McManus3322111113.00.0
5Josh Lambo0022222.02.0
6Stephen Gostkowski5544191922.022.0
7Randy Bullock1111444.04.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5@ NYJ1111444.04.0
6vs LAR2222888.08.0
7@ ARI11669910.010.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.6)1 (-3.6)4T (-6.7)4T (-6.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.3)6 (-3.3)4 (-5.3)4 (-5.3)
4Denver Broncos2744610000111.01.0
5Jacksonville Jaguars3042412000555.05.0
6New England Patriots4044602000440.00.0
7Cincinnati Bengals4555121000440.00.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2000)

5@ NYJ34.0051211100554.04.0
6vs LAR23.0044451000777.07.0
7@ ARI10.0022363202282832.032.0
8PROJ-Dodds32.403932.10.90.500. (H=11)5.3 (H=17)
8PROJ-Tremblay32.503912.310.500. (H=12)5.7 (H=20)

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.2)6 (-3.2)6 (-3.3)5 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.8)5 (-4.9)4 (-4.9)4 (-5.2)
4Patrick Mahomes7828453041037125.925.922.925.9
5Sam Darnold6210221983135021.421.419.419.4
6Jared Goff74142820101414010.510.58.48.4
7Josh Rosen66213919413114012.

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $9200, DraftKings: $7000)

5vs JAX702238313024131212117.820.8
6@ NE5423363524229032.532.529.032.0
7vs CIN70283935841445037.437.433.836.8
8PROJ-Dodds22352742.40.94160. (H=58)25.2 (H=76)
8PROJ-Tremblay22352712.314170.224.624.624.6 (H=55)24.6 (H=73)
8PROJ-Bloom26352902.113170.224.824.824.8 (H=56)24.8 (H=74)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.1)25 (+4.1)26 (+4.1)26 (+4.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+8.0)27 (+5.9)27 (+6.6)28 (+7.3)
4Kareem Hunt451912114354023.526.525.029.5
4Spencer Ware2426000000.
5Isaiah Crowell251521911112029.130.129.633.1
5Bilal Powell342099000009.
6Todd Gurley582820825217034.536.535.539.5
6Malcolm Brown16524000002.
7David Johnson4814390333107.010.08.510.0
7Chase Edmonds22590331202.

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7100)

5vs JAX5222871217015.416.415.916.4
6@ NE311080065105124.529.527.032.5
7vs CIN46158616555232.137.134.637.1
8PROJ-Dodds17760.72230.215.317.316.3 (H=31)17.3 (H=39)
8PROJ-Tremblay17770.62200.214.516.515.5 (H=28)16.5 (H=36)
8PROJ-Bloom16770.84340.317.721.719.7 (H=43)21.7 (H=58)

Spencer Ware (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4000)

5vs JAX8100111301.
6@ NE1625032901.
7vs CIN228590333008.911.910.411.9
8PROJ-Dodds3140.11902.93.93.4 (H=3)3.9 (H=5)
8PROJ-Tremblay3120.11902.73.73.2 (H=3)3.7 (H=4)
8PROJ-Bloom27021101.83.82.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=5)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.4)10 (-3.3)11 (-2.9)10 (-3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.6)8 (-5.8)9 (-4.7)8 (-5.7)
4Tyreek Hill701395401205.614.610.114.6
4Demarcus Robinson45323100003.
5Robby Anderson3253123200024.327.325.830.3
5Terrelle Pryor13112010008.
6Robert Woods721071090112012.119.115.622.1
6Brandin Cooks68625300005.
7Larry Fitzgerald648440100010.
7Christian Kirk52635700005.

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $8600)

5vs JAX647461022608.712.710.712.7
6@ NE53127142310032.239.235.742.2
7vs CIN5210768128013.620.617.120.6
8PROJ-Dodds5790.828013.518.516.1 (H=31)18.6 (H=36)
8PROJ-Tremblay6780.829013.519.516.6 (H=33)19.6 (H=40)
8PROJ-Bloom6790.714012.518.515.6 (H=29)18.6 (H=36)

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4600)

5vs JAX60867800007.813.810.813.8
6@ NE54421801-
7vs CIN60747400007.411.49.411.4
8PROJ-Dodds4470.31406.910.98.9 (H=13)10.9 (H=27)
8PROJ-Tremblay4460.31406.810.88.8 (H=13)10.8 (H=26)
8PROJ-Bloom4550.30007.311.39.3 (H=14)11.3 (H=28)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

5vs JAX43522100002.
6@ NE38111900001.
7vs CIN4611600000.
8PROJ-Dodds2200.20003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
8PROJ-Tremblay2190.20003.15.14.1 (H=5)5.1 (H=10)
8PROJ-Bloom2150.20002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

5vs JAX91000000000.00.0
6@ NE60000000000.00.0
7vs CIN11221300001.
8PROJ-Dodds1100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
8PROJ-Tremblay1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
8PROJ-Bloom2150.10002.14.13.1 (H=3)4.1 (H=7)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.3)17 (-0.2)20 (+0.1)18 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.9)12 (-1.6)11 (-2.1)
4Travis Kelce7312778113.820.817.320.8
5Eric Tomlinson46321501.
6Gerald Everett21422402.
7Ricky Seals-Jones29421201.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6800)

5vs JAX66851000101512.518.0
6@ NE51956106.111.18.611.1
7vs CIN60559509.514.512.014.5
8PROJ-Dodds6720.610.816.813.8 (H=25)16.8 (H=38)
8PROJ-Tremblay6690.610.516.513.5 (H=24)16.5 (H=37)
8PROJ-Bloom6810.511.117.114.1 (H=26)17.1 (H=40)

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

5vs JAX2921500.
6@ NE160000000.00.0
7vs CIN35211717.
8PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.7)22T (+0.7)23 (+0.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.7)21T (+0.7)19T (+0.2) (+0.0)
4Harrison Butker2233999.00.0
5Jason Myers2344101011.011.0
6Cairo Santos3422111111.011.0
7Phil Dawson1111445.05.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5vs JAX3333121213.013.0
6@ NE4444161618.018.0
7vs CIN1266999.09.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-1.7)8T (-1.7)11 (-1.5)11 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.8)12 (-1.8)13T (-1.5)13T (-1.5)
4Kansas City Chiefs2338541000666.06.0
5New York Jets1643641000667.07.0
6Los Angeles Rams2035721000445.05.0
7Arizona Cardinals4530921000443.03.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2600)

5vs JAX14.0050254101212122.022.0
6@ NE43.0050020100440.00.0
7vs CIN10.0023921001101014.014.0
8PROJ-Dodds23.304002.31.10.700. (H=22)8.8 (H=33)
8PROJ-Tremblay22.503872.41.20.700. (H=24)9.3 (H=36)