Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 27, Raiders 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense27.0 (+3.0) (10)103 (-7) (22)267 (+14) (13)
Raiders Defense29.3 (+5.3) (29)132 (+21) (27)267 (+13) (22)

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense18.3 (-5.7) (28)92 (-17) (25)281 (+28) (10)
Colts Defense26.4 (+2.4) (25)111 (+0) (17)264 (+11) (19)

Colts Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Perhaps Marlon Mack is talented enough to be exactly what the Colts have thirsted for. Mack underwhelmed as a 2017 rookie, averaging just 3.85 yards per rush. But it’s important to note that he spent most of the year playing through a torn labrum. Here in 2018, he’s returned from a nagging hamstring injury to rack up 215 yards (6.94 per carry) over the past 2 weeks. He’s put to bed any backfield competition whatsoever, juicing up the league’s ninth-weakest ground game with frequent chunk runs (22 of his 41 carries have gone for 5+ yards). Mack is an explosive second-gear guy through the holes, which have been copious from the Colts’ blossoming front line. Rookie left guard Quenton Nelson looks like a keeper, and center Ryan Kelly remains a powerful force up the middle. This isn’t the league’s most dependable attack, but it keeps proving a dynamic one.

The Oakland defense remains generally weak against the run. Through 7 weeks, they’ve allowed the NFL’s sixth-most yards per game and per attempt. It’s true they’ve tightened noticeably over their last 3 games, holding Carlos Hyde (22 for 82), Melvin Gordon (19 for 58) and Chris Carson (14 for 59) in check. New Raider Jonathan Hankins, one of the league’s most underappreciated run-stuffers, has made his presence felt of late. But it’s difficult to trust in a big turnaround for this group. After all, that 3-game stretch included solid days by Nick Chubb (3 for 105) and Rashaad Penny (9 for 43). This is a severely talent-starved group that struggles in pursuit and the open field. Fantasy rushers can be trusted just fine in this matchup.

Colts Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Even with a pared-down receiving corps, Andrew Luck remains efficient and fantasy-worthy. Even with the likes of Dontrelle Inman, Zach Pascal, and Mo Alie-Cox pressed into heavy snaps, Luck keeps nickel-and-diming defenses with decisive, accurate throws. Not just a volume guy, though, he’s averaged 377 yards and thrown 15 touchdowns over the last 2 weeks. (That yardage number would be much higher if not for the blowout nature of last Sunday.) He now has T.Y. Hilton back, who’s scored on 4 of his first 25 catches, and is able to manufacture explosiveness through rookie back Nyheim Hines and slot/tight end Eric Ebron. Hines has proven reliable and dynamic out of the backfield, catching 32 balls (and 2 touchdowns) thus far. And dating back to his Stanford days, Luck has always appreciated his tight ends and saturated them with targets, especially near the goal line. Ebron isn’t the most efficient receiver, but he’s become a deft endzone target for Luck.

Watching the 2018 Raiders, it’s easy to see the impact of Khalil Mack’s loss. There’s so little playmaking dynamism that opposing quarterbacks are able to dictate game flow from start to finish. The Raiders sit dead last in the league in net yardage allowed per attempt, stemming from big problems both up front and in the secondary. They rank last in both pressures and sacks, forcing their ever-revolving group of defensive backs into coverage for far too long. Cornerbacks Gareon Conley and Rashaan Melvin have already been benched, and there’s now a ton of reliance upon Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the very burnable Daryl Worley. But the safeties have been the real story, struggling mightily to stay in position and hang with receivers down the middle. Karl Joseph looks like a massive bust, and Marcus Gilchrist is a major liability in coverage. All told, opponents are generally able to produce as much as game flow will allow. The only thing preventing big fantasy days is how tight these floundering Raiders can keep the score.

Raiders Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Marshawn Lynch’s trip to injured reserve isn’t exactly surprising – he was already expected out at least a handful of games, and the 32-year-old doesn’t add much to the rebuilding Raiders. The team will move forward with Doug Martin and Jalen Richard as its lead runners. There’s some intrigue to Richard, in case he ever takes a big rushing stake – he’s a career 5.32 yard-per-carry runner. But he’s only seen 11 carries thus far, so he doesn’t look like much of a ground-game priority for Jon Gruden. Martin looks only a hair better than in his plodding Tampa Bay days, managing just 99 yards over his 27 attempts. And unlike Lynch, he doesn’t boast road-grading power to finish tough runs. In a punchless offense that won’t scare any safeties, the deck looks stacked here. Martin won’t beat many defenses to the edge, either, and it’s hard to project him much efficiency. This offense has become a vacant lot, and Richard represents the only calculable upside here.

Contrary to public opinion, the Colts run defense is actually a fairly strong unit. Here in 2018, it’s held up nicely against the likes of Adrian Peterson (11 for 20), Lamar Miller (14 for 49), and the Jets’ duo of Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell (29 for 99). Rookie middle linebacker Darius Leonard has been a revelation in all aspects of his game, and the rotation of tackles are stout in eating up space. If top-down lineman Denico Autry can return after missing the last two weeks, this underrated matchup only grows tougher.

Raiders Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Raiders’ deep rebuild (unsurprisingly) sent Amari Cooper out of town, which may not leave much of a tangible mark. Cooper only occasionally commanded a big stake in this passing game, which has been rudderless and toothless for most of the season. Quarterback Derek Carr has been hounded by opposing pass rushes and looks unable/unwilling to try and work the ball down the field. And now, he’ll work with one of the league’s weakest arsenals. Jordy Nelson looms as the by-default No. 1, but he hasn’t shown much rapport with Carr. Apart from two broken-coverage catch-and-runs in Week 3, Nelson has produced just 196 yards through 6 weeks. Even when Cooper’s involvement waned, Nelson never stepped far into the void. He doesn’t bring much deep speed anymore, and his otherworldly instinct with Aaron Rodgers doesn’t carry over here. Splash-play threats Seth Roberts and Martavis Bryant are wildly inconsistent, but capable of big impacts down the field – a trait wasted in this offense. Between the shaky line, Carr’s refusal to play a downfield game, and the receiving corps’ lack of dynamism, this looks poised to remain a fantasy trap. Tight end Jared Cook, however, retains plenty of value. His work up the seams has been Carr’s only semi-projectable source of success.

Shrewd fantasy players won’t be fooled by the Week 7 performance of the Colts pass defense. Shutting down Derek Anderson and the Bills’ barely-there receiving corps isn’t enough to erase yet another young season’s worth of miscues. Opponents are completing 72% of their throws in this matchup, and 4 of the last 6 have topped 280 yards. There are definitely signs of life, particularly from the surprisingly potent pass rush (21 sacks). But the coverage units have been shaky enough to override them. This is a patchwork secondary, one that gives up chunks of yardage both downfield and in the slots. Even Buffalo’s Kelvin Benjamin showed a flicker of life last Su

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+0.9)23 (+0.8)23 (+0.5)20 (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.3)22 (+1.2)17 (+0.2)19 (+0.4)
4Baker Mayfield82214129522410021.821.814.816.8
5Philip Rivers642227339203-2024.824.821.424.4
6Russell Wilson64172322231620024.124.121.921.9

Andrew Luck (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $6300)

5@ NE8338593653200028.328.324.627.6
6@ NYJ6923433014327028.828.825.728.7
7vs BUF5817231564035024.324.322.722.7
8PROJ-Dodds2437268213140.122.422.422.4 (H=52)22.4 (H=69)
8PROJ-Tremblay21342391.813140. (H=43)20.1 (H=57)
8PROJ-Bloom22292252.10.72110. (H=47)21.2 (H=62)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.9)21 (+1.9)24 (+3.7)22 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+10.0)30 (+8.9)32 (+10.9)31 (+10.6)
4Nick Chubb331052000022.522.522.525.5
4Carlos Hyde5022821100014.
5Melvin Gordon45195814462018.
5Austin Ekeler2361503144111.912.912.412.9
6Rashaad Penny139430222707.
6Chris Carson271459000005.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5400)

6@ NYJ241289021409.310.39.810.3
7vs BUF371912613233127.929.930.934.9
8PROJ-Dodds15700.52190.112.514.513.5 (H=27)14.5 (H=38)
8PROJ-Tremblay16750.52180.112.914.913.9 (H=28)14.9 (H=39)
8PROJ-Bloom16710.42210. (H=26)14.2 (H=36)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

5@ NE56154509745091612.516.0
6@ NYJ303140322103.
7vs BUF17547021-504.
8PROJ-Dodds4170.13210.1586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=19)
8PROJ-Tremblay5220.22150. (H=9)7.5 (H=17)
8PROJ-Bloom4200.11703.34.33.8 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

5@ NE18639022904.
6@ NYJ00000000000.00.0
7vs BUF15646011805.
8PROJ-Dodds3120.10001.81.81.8 (H=1)1.8 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay4180.1160343.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=6)
8PROJ-Bloom5240.11503.54.54.0 (H=4)4.5 (H=7)

Robert Turbin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

5@ NE90001000000.00.0
6@ NYJ13410011301.32.3-0.21.3
8PROJ-Dodds3110.10001.71.71.7 (H=1)1.7 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.2)25 (+4.4)25 (+4.7)24 (+2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.0)19 (+0.2)20 (+0.6)17 (-1.2)
4Jarvis Landry731043410009.413.411.413.4
4Rashard Higgins53546100006.
5Keenan Allen49989001509.517.513.517.5
5Tyrell Williams46336600006.
6David Moore303247115011.
6Doug Baldwin48869100009.

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6300)

7vs BUF354425200014.518.516.518.5
8PROJ-Dodds5750.500010.515.513.0 (H=22)15.5 (H=36)
8PROJ-Tremblay4590.50008.912.910.9 (H=16)12.9 (H=26)
8PROJ-Bloom6710.800011.917.914.9 (H=29)17.9 (H=46)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4200)

5@ NE641186600006.614.610.614.6
6@ NYJ4610455100011.515.513.515.5
7vs BUF3644400000486.08.0
8PROJ-Dodds3380.2000586.6 (H=9)8.1 (H=17)
8PROJ-Tremblay3390.30205.98.97.5 (H=11)9.0 (H=21)
8PROJ-Bloom4440.30006.210.28.3 (H=13)10.3 (H=27)

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

5@ NE64711200001.
6@ NYJ61753501804.
7vs BUF410000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1150.10002.13.12.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay2230.20003.55.54.6 (H=6)5.6 (H=11)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Dontrelle Inman (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs BUF420000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1120.10001. (H=3)
8PROJ-Tremblay0400000. (H=0)

Ryan Grant (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3900)

5@ NE68965800005.811.88.811.8
6@ NYJ40522400002.
8PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
8PROJ-Tremblay180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.2)7 (-2.6)8 (-1.9)7 (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.5)17 (+0.2)20 (+0.9)17 (-0.1)
4Darren Fells402149110.911.911.411.9
5Virgil Green46111317.
6Tyrone Swoopes26112302.

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4900)

5@ NE59159105222.531.527.034.5
6@ NYJ4974711131715.017.0
7vs BUF33733103.
8PROJ-Dodds4510. (H=17)12.1 (H=30)
8PROJ-Tremblay4440.57.411.49.4 (H=15)11.4 (H=27)
8PROJ-Bloom4460. (H=17)12.2 (H=31)

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4400)

8PROJ-Dodds2140.1243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=5)
8PROJ-Tremblay1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=2)
8PROJ-Bloom4310. (H=11)8.9 (H=20)

Erik Swoope (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

5@ NE143344110.413.411.913.4
6@ NYJ2221216.
7vs BUF6111717.
8PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

6@ NYJ12213403.
7vs BUF3211700.
8PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay0400.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+1.3)19T (+1.3)19T (+1.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.5)19 (+0.5)19 (+0.2) (+0.0)
4Greg Joseph2222888.00.0
5Caleb Sturgis2323889.09.0
6Sebastian Janikowski22339910.010.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5@ NE1233668.08.0
6@ NYJ2244101010.010.0
7vs BUF1124555.05.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.8)19 (+0.8)28 (+2.7)28 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+1.2)20T (+1.2)26 (+3.6)26 (+3.6)
4Cleveland Browns4556532000773.03.0
5Los Angeles Chargers10289311007711.011.0
6Seattle Seahawks318560200101017.017.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2900)

5@ NE38.0043802000440.00.0
6@ NYJ42.0037421100662.02.0
7vs BUF5.0030323200121219.019.0
8PROJ-Dodds23.903632.31.20.700. (H=19)8.8 (H=29)
8PROJ-Tremblay23.503622.41.20.700. (H=20)8.9 (H=30)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.7)16 (-0.7)15 (-1.1)15 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.8)23 (+1.8)22 (+1.5)23 (+1.8)
4Deshaun Watson86294237521641135.935.932.135.1
5Tom Brady693444341323-1133.033.029.532.5
6Sam Darnold7124302802168021.821.819.019.0
7Derek Anderson562031175030005.

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5200)

5@ LAC5224332681115016.916.914.214.2
6vs SEA60233114200431010.
8PROJ-Dodds25372671.71.1260.120.320.320.3 (H=53)20.3 (H=70)
8PROJ-Tremblay25382661.61.2260.119.719.719.7 (H=50)19.7 (H=67)
8PROJ-Bloom22351971.41270.115.715.715.7 (H=34)15.7 (H=45)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.3)19 (+1.3)18 (+0.6)19 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.4)13 (-2.3)15 (-2.2)13 (-2.8)
4Lamar Miller461449000004.
4Alfred Blue401331030003.
5Sony Michel28189811112017.018.017.518.0
5James White42200141077113.723.718.723.7
6Bilal Powell321659010005.
6Isaiah Crowell2913400221205.
7Chris Ivory36168106325010.613.612.113.6
7Marcus Murphy184530651707.012.09.512.0

Doug Martin (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4400)

5@ LAC621010000.
6vs SEA700011800.
8PROJ-Dodds14530.51809.110.19.6 (H=16)10.1 (H=24)
8PROJ-Tremblay15530.41608.39.38.8 (H=14)9.3 (H=21)
8PROJ-Bloom13430.321007.19.18.1 (H=12)9.1 (H=20)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4200)

5@ LAC26140665305.711.78.711.7
6vs SEA24230874805.112.18.612.1
8PROJ-Dodds6250.25380.28.713.711.2 (H=23)13.7 (H=44)
8PROJ-Tremblay6250.27490. (H=28)16.2 (H=59)
8PROJ-Bloom5190.14290.16108.0 (H=12)10.0 (H=25)

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3400)

8PROJ-Dodds3120.11802.63.63.1 (H=3)3.6 (H=5)
8PROJ-Tremblay1200100.30.30.3 (H=0)0.3 (H=0)

Keith Smith (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

5@ LAC70000000000.00.0
6vs SEA60000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1400000.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)
8PROJ-Tremblay270.11501.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.5)14 (-2.0)12 (-2.8)12 (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.2)26 (+7.0)24 (+4.6)25 (+6.8)
4DeAndre Hopkins861210169100022.932.927.935.9
4Will Fuller275449100010.914.912.914.9
5Josh Gordon184250100011.
5Cordarrelle Patterson8221110007.
6Terrelle Pryor446557100011.716.714.216.7
6Jermaine Kearse591099400009.418.413.918.4
7Kelvin Benjamin44547100007.
7Zay Jones51532700002.

Jordy Nelson (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4700)

5@ LAC474443100010.314.312.314.3
6vs SEA5632600000.
8PROJ-Dodds4530.30007.111.19.1 (H=17)11.1 (H=27)
8PROJ-Tremblay3480.30006.69.68.1 (H=14)9.6 (H=21)
8PROJ-Bloom5430.40006.711.79.2 (H=17)11.7 (H=30)

Martavis Bryant (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3700)

5@ LAC13339100009.112.18.611.1
6vs SEA43321800001.
8PROJ-Dodds3410.20005.38.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=21)
8PROJ-Tremblay3380.20105.18.16.6 (H=9)8.1 (H=20)
8PROJ-Bloom4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=16)10.9 (H=33)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

5@ LAC28744100004.
6vs SEA44653100003.
8PROJ-Dodds3330.30005.18.16.6 (H=11)8.1 (H=22)
8PROJ-Tremblay3360.30005.48.46.9 (H=12)8.4 (H=23)
8PROJ-Bloom3230.20003.56.55.0 (H=6)6.5 (H=15)

Dwayne Harris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

5@ LAC00000000000.00.0
6vs SEA411700000.
8PROJ-Dodds1140.1000232.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay2190.10102.64.63.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.9)25 (+2.2)25 (+1.0)25 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.2)13T (-1.6)11 (-1.8)12 (-2.0)
4Jordan Akins37322402.
5Rob Gronkowski63767507.513.510.513.5
6Chris Herndon282256111.613.612.613.6
7Charles Clay39531401.

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $5000)

5@ LAC4764200264.06.0
6vs SEA5122100132.03.0
8PROJ-Dodds5580. (H=20)13.2 (H=34)
8PROJ-Tremblay5560.481310.5 (H=19)13.0 (H=33)
8PROJ-Bloom4410.46.510.58.5 (H=13)10.5 (H=23)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

5@ LAC81000000.00.0
6vs SEA110000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.4)31 (+3.4)31 (+3.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.2)31 (+4.2)31 (+4.5) (+0.0)
4Kaimi Fairbairn3444131314.00.0
5Stephen Gostkowski1155889.09.0
6Jason Myers7733242427.027.0
7Steve Hauschka1100333.03.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.0)31 (+3.0)17 (+0.3)17 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29T (+3.9)29T (+3.9)21 (+1.0)21 (+1.0)
4Houston Texans3447840201202013.013.0
5New England Patriots2443912100777.07.0
6New York Jets3442803101141413.013.0
7Buffalo Bills373760001022-2.0-2.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2200)

5@ LAC26.0041210000111.01.0
6vs SEA27.0036911000333.03.0
8PROJ-Dodds26.90389210.600. (H=18)7.2 (H=27)
8PROJ-Tremblay26.503702.210.600. (H=20)7.6 (H=30)