Matchup Analysis: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Browns 22, Steelers 30

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense21.6 (-2.5) (23)135 (+24) (5)222 (-30) (23)
Steelers Defense25.7 (+1.6) (21)98 (-12) (11)282 (+29) (27)

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Steelers Offense28.5 (+4.5) (5)89 (-21) (26)329 (+76) (2)
Browns Defense25.3 (+1.2) (18)135 (+24) (28)279 (+25) (26)

Browns Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Steelers defense.

The Browns rushing attack looked much improved last week as Nick Chubb provides a burst that Carlos Hyde simply does not have. Going up against a good defensive front in Tampa Bay, Chubb was able to average 4.4 yards per carry which was a vast improvement compared to Hyde who averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in his time with the Browns. The most encouraging news for Chubb was that he alleviated the concern around pass protection as he was on the field for 66% of the snaps last week showing that he is a versatile back who the coaching staff trusts to be on the field for significant periods of time.

The Steelers rushing defense has been a tough unit to run on so far this season as they have not allowed a running back to go over 75 yards this year and have only allowed 67 yards rushing on average to opposing running backs in total on the year which is the fourth best in football. The defensive line of the Steelers led by Cameron Hayward and Stephon Tuitt continues to be a crew that will give the offensive line trouble for most of the day and prevents them from getting up to the second level which has allowed Vince Williams and Jon Bostic to clean up a lot of the tackles this year.

Browns Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Steelers defense.

Baker Mayfield continues to be a quarterback who has started slow but has improved as the game progresses. Mayfield and the Browns have averaged just 5.12 yards per attempt in the first quarter while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt in the second quarter through overtime. The biggest issue for the Browns continues to be the lack of consistency with the wide receiver position as outside of Jarvis Landry, the Browns have very little at the position. Antonio Callaway continues to show that he is not ready to contribute as he has just three receptions over the last two games for 23 yards. David Njoku continues to grow and create a further rapport with Mayfield as Njoku is averaging 5.7 catches per game and 59 yards over his last three games. The one area the Browns need to improve on is getting Duke Johnson involved as while the coaches keep talking about it, we have yet to see Duke see his role in this offense increase to the level it was at last season.

The Steelers secondary started the season off poorly as they were torched by Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Joe Flacco allowing 11 touchdowns and an average of 367 yards in those three games. Since then, however, the Steelers have played a little bit better as they held both Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton in check. This still remains a unit that is largely burnable as while Joe Haden has been elite during stretches of the game he has also shown that he is susceptible to being burned as A.J. Green had 85 yards and 7 receptions against him. The biggest issue for the Steelers this week will be David Njoku as the Steelers have really struggled against the tight end giving up 50 yards or more to a tight end in five consecutive weeks.

Steelers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The Steelers will once again be without Le’Veon Bell and with no assured date of him coming back, this team remains James Conners team in terms of the running game. Conner prior to the bye week had back to back phenomenal games as he went for 110 yards or more in each of those two contests. Conner has shown a bit of inconsistency on the ground as while he has three games where he has gone over 110 on the season, he does have two games in which the Steelers fell behind and he had less than 10 carries and less than 20 yards. Look for Conner to continue to have success this week against the Browns and while we should not expect 31 carries that we saw last time these two teams played in the down pouring rain, he should see a significant volume this week.

It remains to be seen what the loss of Joe Schobert will have on this Browns rushing attack as they were able to stop the anemic Tampa Bay rushing attack last week, but will be faced with a sizeable test against James Conner who had previously rushed for 135 yards against this unit. On the season, the Browns have struggled with consistency as they have allowed 130 yards or more to running backs. Rookie Genard Avery will be facing a tough test in this game and while he played well against Tampa last week, it could make for a tough week for the Browns as the right side of the offensive line for the Steelers in David Decastro and Marcus Gilbert should have no problem with Trevon Coley and Emmanuel Ogbah which will leave Avery in some tough positions having to shed blockers.

Steelers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The Steelers bye may have come at the worst time for them for their passing offense as they are coming off of their best performance of the season. After some early season struggles, Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown seemingly have gotten back on track as Brown is averaging 103 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game over his last two games. The one bright spot for the Steelers so far has been Vance McDonald who has gone for 60 yards or more in three of his last four games and gives the Steelers an additional weapon that opens up space for Brown, Smith-Schuster and Conner out of the backfield.

The Browns secondary is an improving unit led by Denzel Ward who is likely going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Expect Ward to shadow Antonio Brown this week for most of the game which Ward has shadowed receivers for the past few weeks including completely shutting down DeSean Jackson last week. This could once again be a game where the Steelers look to move the ball through the air with JuJu Smith-Schuster who had success the last time he played the Browns as he caught 5 balls for 119 yards. He will likely matchup against a combination of Damarious Randall who the Browns moved to corner as the team waits for E.J. Gaines to return, and T.J. Carrie out of the slot.

Steelers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.9)29 (+6.1)29 (+5.6)29 (+6.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.1)17 (+0.2)16 (-0.5)15 (-0.5)
4Joe Flacco772842363202-3025.925.922.225.2
5Matt Ryan64263828510110019.319.314.415.4
6Andy Dalton6126422292000019.519.517.217.2

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5700)

5vs BAL80254334211223022.422.419.022.0
6vs LAC7422462381228014.714.714.314.3
7@ TB68233421520443023.123.120.920.9
8PROJ-Dodds22382621.31.13170.119.519.519.5 (H=47)19.5 (H=60)
8PROJ-Tremblay22372511.31.14190. (H=45)19.1 (H=58)
8PROJ-Bloom20331971.41.13170161616.0 (H=33)16.0 (H=42)

Steelers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.0)2 (-6.9)2 (-6.2)2 (-7.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.3)5 (-5.1)4 (-5.2)4 (-6.0)
4Alex Collins3711420113110.511.59.010.5
4Javorius Allen3410300221704.
5Ito Smith1235111507.
5Devonta Freeman28832022904.
6Joe Mixon42116417420014.418.416.418.4
6Mark Walton192-200000-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4700)

5vs BAL1132010000.
6vs LAC7325000002.
7@ TB45188012000141414.014.0
8PROJ-Dodds16770.519011.612.612.1 (H=23)12.6 (H=34)
8PROJ-Tremblay16760.519011.512.512.0 (H=23)12.5 (H=33)
8PROJ-Bloom16580.51809.610.610.1 (H=17)10.6 (H=25)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

5vs BAL41535011704.
6vs LAC3523605473010.914.912.914.9
7@ TB351-40442301.
8PROJ-Dodds6260.23280. (H=15)10.2 (H=28)
8PROJ-Tremblay5230.13240. (H=12)8.9 (H=22)
8PROJ-Bloom3140.14330.26.510.58.5 (H=15)10.5 (H=30)

Steelers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.7)29 (+7.8)29 (+6.6)28 (+8.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.8)23 (+4.4)22 (+3.6)22 (+4.0)
4John Brown4573116113017.920.919.423.9
4Willie Snead40765600005.611.68.611.6
5Mohamed Sanu597473100013.317.315.317.3
5Julio Jones53956200006.211.28.711.2
6Tyler Boyd579762200018.225.221.725.2
6A.J. Green571278500008.515.512.015.5

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $7200)

5vs BAL801056900006.911.99.411.9
6vs LAC73921100001.
7@ TB67151097100015.725.720.725.7
8PROJ-Dodds6730.40009.715.712.7 (H=24)15.7 (H=32)
8PROJ-Tremblay6730.40009.715.712.7 (H=24)15.7 (H=32)
8PROJ-Bloom6640.50009.415.412.4 (H=23)15.4 (H=31)

Antonio Callaway (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3800)

5vs BAL55532200002.
6vs LAC72102900000.
7@ TB51211400001.
8PROJ-Dodds3350.20004.77.76.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=18)
8PROJ-Tremblay3370.20004.97.96.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=19)
8PROJ-Bloom2210.10002.74.73.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=7)

Damion Ratley (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3600)

6vs LAC65868200008.
7@ TB40332300002.
8PROJ-Dodds3330.20004.57.56.0 (H=9)7.5 (H=18)
8PROJ-Tremblay3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=19)
8PROJ-Bloom2170.10002.34.33.3 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ TB1111600000.
8PROJ-Dodds1140.1000232.53.0 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay0300000. (H=0)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3800)

5vs BAL314366100012.615.614.115.6
8PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
8PROJ-Tremblay1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
8PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Steelers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.4)30 (+6.3)30 (+4.9)30 (+6.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.2)27 (+4.2)24 (+2.3)27 (+4.0)
4Maxx Williams41555105.110.17.610.1
5Austin Hooper551297707.716.712.216.7
6C.J. Uzomah56765405.411.48.411.4

David Njoku (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4600)

5vs BAL721166906.912.99.912.9
6vs LAC6012755111.518.515.018.5
7@ TB576452111.
8PROJ-Dodds5460.36.411.48.9 (H=15)11.4 (H=29)
8PROJ-Tremblay5440. (H=14)11.2 (H=28)
8PROJ-Bloom5540.58.413.410.9 (H=21)13.4 (H=38)

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

5vs BAL1911800.
6vs LAC190000000.00.0
7@ TB240000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1900.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
8PROJ-Tremblay1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Steelers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-0.7)12T (-0.7)10T (-1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.5)15 (-0.5)15 (-0.5) (+0.0)
4Justin Tucker4422141416.00.0
5Matt Bryant1122556.06.0
6Randy Bullock0033333.03.0

Greg Joseph (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5vs BAL2301666.06.0
6vs LAC2200666.06.0
7@ TB0033333.03.0

Steelers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-1.9)1T (-1.9)2T (-3.5)2T (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.5)1 (-4.5)2 (-5.8)2 (-5.8)
4Baltimore Ravens1428411100556.06.0
5Atlanta Falcons413810100022-2.0-2.0
6Cincinnati Bengals284810000000-1.0-1.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $3100, DraftKings: $2100)

5vs BAL9.00410211006612.012.0
6vs LAC38.004491100033-1.0-1.0
7@ TB26.0045642210141414.014.0
8PROJ-Dodds28.203832.21.20.600.3777.0 (H=18)7.0 (H=27)
8PROJ-Tremblay29.753942.61.20.500. (H=17)6.8 (H=26)

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.5)14 (-1.5)10 (-2.0)14 (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.1)24 (+2.0)25 (+1.9)24 (+2.2)
4Derek Carr9235584374221036.036.033.636.6
5Joe Flacco87295629801213015.
6Philip Rivers5311202072100017.417.415.315.3
7Jameis Winston953252365021055127.827.822.126.1

Ben Roethlisberger (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $6100)

5vs ATL60192925031216025.125.122.622.6
6@ CIN733246369101-1022.323.321.124.6
8PROJ-Dodds254029821.2360.122.922.922.9 (H=53)22.9 (H=74)
8PROJ-Tremblay25402921.91.2380.122.422.422.4 (H=51)22.4 (H=71)
8PROJ-Bloom23322672.10.9110.121.521.521.5 (H=48)21.5 (H=66)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.7)22 (+3.0)22 (+3.2)23 (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+3.1)23 (+2.7)22 (+2.6)22 (+3.4)
4Marshawn Lynch502013005327015.718.717.221.7
4Jalen Richard341-20533803.
5Javorius Allen508340864407.813.88.812.8
5Alex Collins271259041706.
6Melvin Gordon381813234218033.
6Austin Ekeler21760000006.
7Ronald Jones II296131111508.
7Peyton Barber351130020003.

James Conner (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7500)

5vs ATL452111024475030.534.532.537.5
6@ CIN661911127418024.928.926.931.9
8PROJ-Dodds19800.94320. (H=41)21.2 (H=52)
8PROJ-Tremblay19820.94320.117.421.419.4 (H=42)21.4 (H=53)
8PROJ-Bloom19800.94220. (H=38)20.2 (H=48)

Stevan Ridley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4000)

5vs ATL1258000000.
6@ CIN612000000.
8PROJ-Dodds3100.10001.61.61.6 (H=1)1.6 (H=1)
8PROJ-Tremblay280.10101.51.51.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
8PROJ-Bloom31100001.11.11.1 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.8)24 (+4.3)24 (+3.0)25 (+4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.3)25 (+6.9)26 (+6.6)27 (+8.2)
4Amari Cooper80128128100018.826.822.829.8
4Jordy Nelson808548100010.815.815.317.8
5Michael Crabtree721266600006.612.69.612.6
5John Brown591445800005.
6Tyrell Williams4943118211023.926.925.429.9
6Keenan Allen3964620441010.314.312.314.3
7Mike Evans82117107000010.717.714.220.7
7DeSean Jackson43522502819.311.310.311.3

Antonio Brown (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $8500)

5vs ATL57136101200022.
6@ CIN6365105100016.521.519.024.5
8PROJ-Dodds7850.700012.719.716.2 (H=28)19.7 (H=41)
8PROJ-Tremblay6780.7000121815.0 (H=24)18.0 (H=35)
8PROJ-Bloom6910.900014.520.517.5 (H=32)20.5 (H=44)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7400)

5vs ATL50443410009.413.411.413.4
6@ CIN50107111000011.118.116.623.1
8PROJ-Dodds6810.400010.516.513.5 (H=22)16.5 (H=34)
8PROJ-Tremblay6790.500010.916.913.9 (H=23)16.9 (H=36)
8PROJ-Bloom5740.500010.415.412.9 (H=20)15.4 (H=30)

Ryan Switzer (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

5vs ATL411500000.
6@ CIN211700000.
8PROJ-Dodds2160.11402.64.63.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)
8PROJ-Tremblay1150.11402.53.53.1 (H=3)3.6 (H=5)
8PROJ-Bloom160.10001.22.21.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

James Washington (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

5vs ATL352000000000.00.0
6@ CIN161000000000.00.0
8PROJ-Dodds1170.10002.33.32.8 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
8PROJ-Tremblay1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
8PROJ-Bloom1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.4)22 (+0.5)17 (-0.2)22 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26T (+2.5)29 (+5.1)28 (+3.4)30 (+5.4)
4Jared Cook76138110223.
5Mark Andrews33311601.
6Antonio Gates1621500.
7O.J. Howard63956706.711.79.211.7

Vance McDonald (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3700)

5vs ATL3721600.
6@ CIN51876806.813.810.313.8
8PROJ-Dodds3370. (H=9)7.9 (H=19)
8PROJ-Tremblay3340. (H=8)7.6 (H=18)
8PROJ-Bloom4420. (H=12)9.4 (H=26)

Jesse James (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $2900)

5vs ATL3622200243.04.0
6@ CIN51752602.
8PROJ-Dodds2220. (H=5)5.4 (H=12)
8PROJ-Tremblay2230. (H=5)5.5 (H=13)
8PROJ-Bloom2210. (H=4)5.3 (H=12)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)20 (+0.2)19 (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.2)28 (+2.2)28T (+2.5) (+0.0)
4Matt McCrane3544131314.014.0
5Justin Tucker34009910.010.0
7Chandler Catanzaro23238810.010.0

Chris Boswell (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

5vs ATL0056555.05.0
6@ CIN2222888.08.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.4)24 (+1.4)25 (+2.0)25 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.9)25 (+2.9)24 (+3.2)24 (+3.2)
4Oakland Raiders4248722201161612.012.0
5Baltimore Ravens12416510007711.011.0
6Los Angeles Chargers14317520009910.010.0
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers2330550100777.07.0

Pittsburgh Steelers (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2300)

5vs ATL17.0032460101202017.017.0
6@ CIN21.0027530000333.03.0
8PROJ-Dodds20.403582.91.10.500. (H=26)9.7 (H=44)
8PROJ-Tremblay21.253692.41.10.500. (H=26)9.6 (H=43)