Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 30, Rams 28

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT
NE281271.025382912.10.7
LAR251170.925383001.90.9

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense28.6 (+5.2) (4)132 (+17) (5)275 (+36) (6)
Rams Defense23.8 (+0.5) (19)114 (+0) (15)238 (+0) (16)

Los Angeles Rams Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Rams Offense32.4 (+9.1) (2)143 (+29) (3)277 (+39) (5)
Patriots Defense21.3 (-2.0) (10)104 (-10) (8)250 (+12) (22)

Patriots Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Rams defense.

The Patriots bring in a running game that is seemingly humming along led by the late-season emergence of Sony Michel. Michel has been a volume workhorse this postseason as he has 53 carries in his last two games and Rex Burkhead has complimented Michel nicely with an additional 16 carries over those two games. This is an offensive line that struggled for most of the first half but has become a unit that is working together to becoming one of the top units in football. Guards Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney have been dominant for the Patriots in the second half of the season and have been a big factor into the success that has allowed Michel to rush for over 100 yards in three of his last four games with the only game that he did not accomplish this was Week 17 in which he only had 14 carries.

The Rams rushing defense has stepped up when they need them to as they have faced the Cowboys and Saints in consecutive weeks and shut down both teams holding them to just 2.5 yards per carry in those two games. The defense has played up to their potential after struggling for most of the season as linebacker Cory Littleton who has struggled for most of the season has stepped up in a big way over the last two games with 19 tackles. This is Littleton’s first year as a regular starter, and while he struggled early on this season has played up to the potential that allowed the Rams to trade Alec Ogletree in the offseason.

Patriots Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Rams defense.

Tom Brady continues to show that in the playoffs he is just a different quarterback than the regular season. In each of his last two games, Brady has thrown for over 340 yards in both games and has now thrown for over 300 yards in 11 of his last 14 playoff games. This is a unit that has been able to identify the pre-snap read and get the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly to James White, Julian Edelman or even Rob Gronkowski who had a vintage Gronkowski game against the Chiefs last week. This is a unit that will take whatever mismatch the defense is willing to give up with the variety of playmakers that the Patriots have on the field.

The Rams secondary continues to be a unit that has largely underperformed this season. While the unit has dealt with injuries primarily to Aqib Talib who missed a large portion of the year, the Rams have been a unit that has been a merely average team against the pass compared to the expectations heading into this season with the acquisitions of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. Peters has been extremely disappointing and will be matched up this week against a combination of Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan. The good news for the Rams this week is that their strength is at the slot corner position as Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the best slot corners in the league this year and could pose problems for Julian Edelman in this game. The one concern for the Rams could be their ability to cover Rob Gronkowski in this game as the team has allowed seven tight ends this season to go for over 50 yards and five tight ends to go for over 90 yards.

Rams Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The big question heading into this game is the health of Todd Gurley. With two weeks off the running back will look to get back to his peak regular season form after being benched for most of the second half of the game and had just four carries against the Saints in the NFC Championship. If Gurley is unable to go, C.J. Anderson will likely continue to see significant playing time. Anderson who is nowhere near as elusive as Gurley, still has been efficient behind what is largely considered the best offensive line in football. The Rams may have the best tackle combination in football led by veteran Andrew Whitworth at left tackle and Rob Havenstein who is 6’8’’ 340 pounds, this is a line that can create massive holes for either running back. If Gurley is healthy this will play a significant role this week in the game.

The Patriots front seven is one of the most improved units this season. After being embarrassed Week 3 against the Lions, the Patriots have allowed just one 100 yard rusher since allowing 149 yards to Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. In the playoffs so far this year, the unit essentially took Melvin Gordon out of the game holding him to just 15 yards on 9 carries and holding Damien Williams to just 30 yards on 10 carries. What the Patriots have been doing with primarily playing a Dime defense has been remarkable and a big reason for this is the play of Patrick Chung and Kyle Van Noy who have both been playing remarkably well against the run as the defensive line has done a tremendous job in keeping the offensive line from getting to the second level which has allowed the ability for the linebackers to free roam and make the tackle.

Rams Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Jared Goff has been up and down this season but was great when he needed to be against the Saints in the championship. Goff over his last seven games has thrown for 216 yards or less in five of those games and has thrown for under 60% completion percentage in four of those games. The Rams offense has primarily evolved into a run-first offense setting up the play-action pass and is an offense that is designed to play with the lead. The struggles for the Rams in the passing game have been primarily driven by the lack of consistent options outside of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. The Rams desperately miss Todd Gurley’s elusiveness out of the backfield if nothing more than to keep the defense honest with drawing safety attention over to the running back who is dangerous in open space. Josh Reynolds has been a deep threat for the Rams, but the second-year player has struggled with consistency for the Rams this season. This is a unit that will be critical in the outcome of this game as they need to get back to the high potent offense that we saw earlier this season.

The Patriots secondary has been one that is a better unit than the stats show as they have been a victim of garbage time production in several games this season. This is a unit that has allowed the fifth-most attempts allowed, but have the fifth-fewest yards per attempt this season indicating that while teams throw a lot against them on a per-yard basis they are not efficient. From a talent standpoint, this is a team that is extremely dangerous as they primarily play a 4-1-6 Dime defense. This is a veteran unit led by Stephon Gilmore who has emerged as one of the top corners in the league and plays alongside the McCourty twins and Patrick Chung who have played a significant role in undrafted rookie J.C. Jackson’s development this season. If there is a weakness on this defense, it would be how the inexperienced Jackson performs in the Super Bowl and he’ll mostly matchup against Josh Reynolds, but will see some Brandin Cooks in this game.

Rams vs QB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.4)18 (+0.5)18 (+0.3)18 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+3.2)24 (+3.4)24 (+4.5)24 (+3.9)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Nick Mullens622333282331-2022.922.922.122.1
19Dak Prescott5820322661023123.623.622.922.9
20Drew Brees662640249212-2019.319.316.816.8

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC833444343102-1021.121.117.620.6
20@ KC973046348121-1019.319.315.818.8
21PROJ-Dodds25382912.10.7130.123.123.123.123.1
21PROJ-Tremblay243726221250.121.221.221.221.2
21PROJ-Bloom22292171.60.600016.716.716.716.7

Rams vs RB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.6)12 (-0.7)10 (-0.9)12 (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.7)15 (-0.5)14 (-1.6)17 (-0.8)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Alfred Morris44161111114017.518.518.021.5
17Kyle Juszczyk40290211502.43.40.92.4
19Ezekiel Elliott56204715219012.614.613.614.6
19Rod Smith100000000.00.00.00.0
20Alvin Kamara448150131196011.122.116.622.1
20Mark Ingram29931022603.75.74.75.7

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC36241293119031.832.832.335.8
20@ KC34291132000023.323.323.326.3
21PROJ-Dodds17780.615011.912.912.412.9
21PROJ-Tremblay18840.602012.212.212.212.2
21PROJ-Bloom20810.700012.312.312.312.3

James White (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC3800017159709.724.717.224.7
20@ KC336230644907.211.29.211.2
21PROJ-Dodds3140.16530.49.715.712.715.7
21PROJ-Tremblay3120.16470.48.914.911.914.9
21PROJ-Bloom280.26450.48.914.911.914.9

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC11412111707.98.98.48.9
20@ KC30124124423018.422.420.422.4
21PROJ-Dodds4180.22170.25.97.96.97.9
21PROJ-Tremblay4160.121203.45.44.45.4
21PROJ-Bloom8290.3150.15.86.86.36.8

James Develin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC2725000000.50.50.50.5
20@ KC4100011900.91.91.41.9
21PROJ-Dodds1301400.71.71.21.7
21PROJ-Tremblay160.11501.72.72.22.7
21PROJ-Bloom000000000.00.0

Rams vs WR

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.5)14 (-0.2)17 (+0.3)16 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-3.2)13 (-3.8)17 (-2.1)17 (-2.4)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Kendrick Bourne586559100011.916.914.416.9
17Richie James58533210009.212.210.712.2
19Amari Cooper549665100012.518.517.520.5
19Michael Gallup4996119000011.917.914.920.9
20Ted Ginn37635800005.88.87.38.8
20Michael Thomas64743600003.67.65.67.6

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC80139151017015.824.820.327.8
20@ KC931079600009.616.613.116.6
21PROJ-Dodds7900.6140132016.520.0
21PROJ-Tremblay7850.700012.719.716.219.7
21PROJ-Bloom6630.40008.714.711.714.7

Chris Hogan (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC76531300001.34.32.84.3
20@ KC72754500004.59.57.09.5
21PROJ-Dodds2330.20004.56.55.56.5
21PROJ-Tremblay2240.20003.65.64.65.6
21PROJ-Bloom3310.20004.37.35.87.3

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC385441100010.114.112.114.1
20@ KC36312910008.99.99.49.9
21PROJ-Dodds2280.20104.16.15.16.1
21PROJ-Tremblay2230.20203.75.74.75.7
21PROJ-Bloom2220.20003.45.44.45.4

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC1110001300.30.30.30.3
20@ KC18421800001.83.82.83.8
21PROJ-Dodds1120.11602.43.42.93.4
21PROJ-Tremblay1170.11302.63.63.13.6
21PROJ-Bloom170290.12.23.22.73.2

Rams vs TE

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.0)20 (+1.2)21 (+1.1)24 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.2)30 (+6.6)30 (+5.9)30 (+7.5)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17George Kittle61149149120.929.925.432.9
19Dalton Schultz36212002.03.02.53.0
20Garrett Griffin39221217.29.28.29.2

Rob Gronkowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC77112502.53.53.03.5
20@ KC971167907.913.910.913.9
21PROJ-Dodds4530.47.711.79.711.7
21PROJ-Tremblay4460.36.410.48.410.4
21PROJ-Bloom3440.36.29.27.79.2

Rams vs PK

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.1)16T (+0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.2)16 (-1.0) (+0.0)
WEEKPLAYERFGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
17Robbie Gould1133666.06.0
19Brett Maher0022222.02.0
20Wil Lutz3322111111.011.0

Stephen Gostkowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

FGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC2255111111.011.0
20@ KC1144778.08.0
21PROJ-Dodds1.92.32.93.18.68.69.99.9
21PROJ-Tremblay2.32.83.13.1101011.611.6

Rams vs TD

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-1.5)1T (-1.5)4 (-3.7)4 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.0)1T (-6.0)2 (-9.0)2 (-9.0)
WEEKPLAYERPTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
17San Francisco 49ers483770000000-4.0-4.0
19Dallas Cowboys304590000000-1.0-1.0
20New Orleans Saints2637811000333.03.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

PTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs LAC28.0033521100665.05.0
20@ KC31.0029040000443.03.0
21PROJ-Dodds27.704182.210.600.47.27.27.27.2
21PROJ-Tremblay27.504102.51.10.700.47.97.97.97.9

Patriots vs QB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.4)23 (+1.4)22 (+1.2)22 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.4)20 (+1.3)20 (+1.2)21 (+1.8)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Sam Darnold56162816700128011.211.27.58.5
19Philip Rivers7125513313100027.627.626.229.2
20Patrick Mahomes52163129530211027.927.924.924.9

Jared Goff (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL79152818600612010.510.58.68.6
20@ NO69254029711310018.918.915.915.9
21PROJ-Dodds25383001.90.9270.1232323.023.0
21PROJ-Tremblay24382961.81.1380.122.322.322.322.3
21PROJ-Bloom18272201.40.8270.117.117.117.117.1

Patriots vs RB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.7)15 (-0.4)12 (-0.8)13 (-0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.3)18 (+0.2)15 (-1.2)14 (-1.4)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Elijah McGuire4318410222406.58.55.57.5
17DeAngelo Henderson3219000001.91.9-0.10.9
19Melvin Gordon359151211108.69.69.19.6
19Justin Jackson13140432202.65.64.15.6
20Damien Williams41103018566227.632.630.132.6
20Spencer Ware10000112102.13.12.63.1

Todd Gurley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL45161151223017.819.818.822.8
20@ NO32410131307.38.37.88.3
21PROJ-Dodds12590.64380.214.518.516.518.5
21PROJ-Tremblay12560.74350.214.518.516.518.5
21PROJ-Bloom13610.63320.214.117.115.617.1

C.J. Anderson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL34231232100024.324.324.327.3
20@ NO371644011504.95.95.45.9
21PROJ-Dodds9390.21605.76.76.26.7
21PROJ-Tremblay9370.21605.56.56.06.5
21PROJ-Bloom15650.600010.110.110.110.1

Patriots vs WR

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.5)12 (-0.4)11 (-0.4)13 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-3.2)10 (-5.9)12 (-3.8)10 (-5.1)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Deontay Burnett30557300007.312.39.812.3
17Andre Roberts40432800002.85.84.35.8
19Keenan Allen676275100013.515.516.517.5
19Tyrell Williams49759400009.414.411.914.4
20Sammy Watkins4784114000011.415.413.418.4
20Tyreek Hill46314200004.25.24.75.2

Robert Woods (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL77866901907.813.810.813.8
20@ NO691063302-30396.09.0
21PROJ-Dodds6780.518011.617.614.617.6
21PROJ-Tremblay7900.517012.719.716.219.7
21PROJ-Bloom5590.4150.19.414.411.914.4

Brandin Cooks (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL73646501507119.011.0
20@ NO6987107000010.717.714.220.7
21PROJ-Dodds5720.4140101512.515.0
21PROJ-Tremblay5690.31509.214.211.714.2
21PROJ-Bloom5710.3180.110.315.312.815.3

Josh Reynolds (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL69411901902.83.83.33.8
20@ NO5274740116091311.013.0
21PROJ-Dodds4530.40007.711.79.711.7
21PROJ-Tremblay4550.40007.911.99.911.9
21PROJ-Bloom2320.3000576.07.0

Patriots vs TE

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.3)21 (+1.2)22 (+1.2)20 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.3)24 (+2.4)24T (+2.4)22 (+2.3)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
17Chris Herndon4631800.81.81.31.8
19Antonio Gates448541110.115.112.615.1
20Travis Kelce52532318.311.39.811.3

Gerald Everett (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL342000000.00.0
20@ NO4742500576.07.0
21PROJ-Dodds3260.23.86.85.36.8
21PROJ-Tremblay3230.23.56.55.06.5
21PROJ-Bloom2150.12.14.13.14.1

Tyler Higbee (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL5542300354.05.0
20@ NO39442518.512.510.512.5
21PROJ-Dodds2240.1354.05.0
21PROJ-Tremblay2160.12.24.23.24.2
21PROJ-Bloom1110.11.72.72.22.7

Patriots vs PK

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-0.4)6T (-0.4)11 (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-2.6)6T (-2.6)6T (-3.0) (+0.0)
WEEKPLAYERFGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
17Jason Myers1100334.04.0
19Mike Badgley0022222.02.0
20Harrison Butker1144777.07.0

Greg Zuerlein (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

FGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL3433121213.013.0
20@ NO4422141417.017.0
21PROJ-Dodds1.82.233.28.48.49.79.7
21PROJ-Tremblay2.12.62.82.89.19.110.610.6

Patriots vs TD

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.0)1 (-3.0)1T (-4.2)1T (-4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.3)5 (-5.3)1 (-9.7)1 (-9.7)
WEEKPLAYERPTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
17New York Jets3837510000110.00.0
19Los Angeles Chargers414980000000-4.0-4.0
20Kansas City Chiefs3752402000440.00.0

Los Angeles Rams (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

PTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
19vs DAL22.0030810000111.01.0
20@ NO23.0029021000444.04.0
21PROJ-Dodds30.004132.10.90.600.46.56.56.56.5
21PROJ-Tremblay30.003902.410.700.47.27.27.27.2