Matchup Analysis: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Raiders 20, Broncos 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense13.0 (-10.9) (28)95 (-18) (22)300 (+62) (9)
Broncos Defense24.0 (+0.1) (21)64 (-49) (3)242 (+4) (19)

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense27.0 (+3.1) (10)146 (+32) (7)324 (+86) (4)
Raiders Defense33.0 (+9.1) (26)140 (+26) (25)225 (-12) (15)

Raiders Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

The Raiders last week had a real opportunity to establish the run against a run defense that struggled in 2017 as they were one of the worst run defenses in football. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they tried to establish the run early with very little success and then fell behind in the second half forcing them to throw the ball. Expect a lot of this in 2018 as the Raiders just are not a great team and with 32-year-old Marshawn Lynch not having big play ability, he is going to need volume to have fantasy value as he has just three carries longer than 20 yards in his last 24 contests.

The Broncos run defense continued to show why it was the best in 2017. In 2017, the Broncos led the league in yards per carry at just 3.3 allowed. This is an elite unit led by linebacker Brandon Marshall who is one of the best run stopping linebackers in Football. With the ability to play one-on-one on the outside with their elite corners, this allows the Broncos to put more players in the box and they held the Seahawks to just 64 yards rushing. The one thing that we don't know yet is whether the Seahawks are just a poor rushing offense or if the Broncos are still as good as they were last year. The answer is likely both, as space-eating defensive tackle Domata Peko gives the linebackers plenty of space to clean up the tackles. This should make for a tough day for the Raiders offense as the way to beat the Broncos run defense is with speed which could lead to Jalen Richard, but expect Marshawn Lynch to have a tough day against this defense.

Raiders Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

The Raiders have to go to altitude on a short week after struggling in week one against the Rams. The passing game outside of the running backs and tight ends was almost non-existent as while Derek Carr threw for 303 yards against a good Rams defense, only 63 yards were completed to wide receivers as Jordy Nelson and Amari Cooper were largely taken out of the game against an elite Rams secondary. Jared Cook was the one bright spot in this game as he was dominant with 12 targets 10 receptions and 180 yards in this game. If the Raiders are unable to get consistent production out of their wide receivers particularly in the veteran Jordy Nelson, this could be an opportunity for Cook to have a big season as he we have seen him do this before where he had big games but consistency has always been an issue for the 31-year-old tight end.

The second week doesn't get any easier for the Raiders as they are going up against two of the best secondaries in football on back to back weeks. The Broncos secondary while not as great as it was back in the prime of the "No Fly Zone", it is still a secondary that should be feared even with the departure of Aqib Talib. Chris Harris and Bradley Roby still make up the secondary and Roby has developed into an upper-echelon corner. Last week, the Broncos did give up 298 yards and three touchdowns to Russell Wilson, but a lot of this was on big plays as tight end Will Dissly had two long catches and Tyler Lockett also had a 51-yard reception. Expect the Broncos to fix these plays going forward, but the one thing to keep an eye on is the struggle that they had keeping up with Will Dissly as it could provide an opportunity for Jared Cook this week. Outside of Cook having another big performance, it's very difficult to see the Raiders having significant success in the passing game.

Broncos Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

The Broncos rushing attack was a bit of a surprise as Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman shared time and both had almost identical days as they both had 15 carries for 71 yards a piece. Even from a snap count perspective, they were almost identical as Freeman had 29 snaps while Lindsay had 26. This appears to be a split backfield amongst the two rookies at least for the time being and as long as they are both successful carrying the ball. Lindsay is a nice surprise for the Broncos as the rookie undrafted free agent showed a tremendous burst and showed why he had such success at Colorado University where he is the all-purpose yard leader and leader in yards from scrimmage.

The Raiders held Todd Gurley in check for most of the first half last week as he had just 19 yards on 4 carries in the first half last week as the Raiders went to a stacked box. However, as the team wore down, Gurley had tremendous success in the second-half going for 89 yards on just 16 carries (5.6 yards per carry). This is a defense that now has to go on the road into altitude and try to stop a defense that can feature three different running backs that all could have success against this defense. The biggest problem for the Raiders so far this season is their defensive tackles in P.J. Hall and Justin Ellis. They will look for these players to improve and provide a run-stopping ability that they’re capable of in order to shut down the Broncos run offense this week.

Broncos Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Case Keenum is out to prove last season was not a fluke as he has found a connection with Emmanuel Sanders that has been much talked about throughout the preseason and showed in Week 1 as Sanders had 10 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. This is an offense that looked efficient and while Keenum threw three interceptions appears to be a significant upgrade for this offense that is much needed and has a tremendous cast supporting the quarterback position.

The Raiders secondary allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2017 and allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in Week 1 of 2018 as they allowed 176 yards and a touchdown to the Rams wide receivers last week. This is a secondary that while they do not have any elite players, they do not have any significant liabilities either, as Rashaan Melvin and Leon Hall are both veteran presences and while Hall is not as good as T.J. Carrie was in 2017, should be serviceable out of the slot. The wild-card for this defense is Gareon Conley as the former-first-round pick is in a big season as his fellow teammates from Ohio State have all grown into tremendous defensive backs in Marshon Lattimore, Malik Hooker, and it is appearing Denzel Ward. Conley needs to improve quickly as injuries kept him limited in 2017. If Conley can emerge, this could be a tough defense to deal with, but as it stands now this is a defense you should not be afraid of targeting against.

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+5.4)24 (+5.4)25 (+5.2)23 (+4.3)
1Russell Wilson5719332983225025.425.422.422.4

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5500)

1vs LAR7429403030321012.312.39.212.2
2PROJ-Dodds22342431.31240.117.317.317.3 (H=42)17.3 (H=50)
2PROJ-Tremblay22352361.31260. (H=41)17.2 (H=50)
2PROJ-Bloom193417611.2220.112.412.412.4 (H=23)12.4 (H=28)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-6.8)12 (-4.4)8 (-7.3)11 (-5.9)
1Chris Carson257510532807.910.97.49.9
1Rashaad Penny25780543504.

Marshawn Lynch (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs LAR2711411228010.912.911.912.9
2PROJ-Dodds12580.411009.210.29.7 (H=16)10.2 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay11440.31907.18.17.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom13550.52909.411.410.4 (H=18)11.4 (H=26)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs LAR3752401195507.916.912.416.9
2PROJ-Dodds4100.13270. (H=10)7.9 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay5210.14350.16.810.88.8 (H=18)10.8 (H=36)
2PROJ-Bloom250.13230.1475.5 (H=8)7.0 (H=17)

Doug Martin (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs LAR10420022-301.
2PROJ-Dodds8260.21804.65.65.1 (H=6)5.6 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay4140.11902.93.93.4 (H=3)3.9 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom3120.10001.81.81.8 (H=1)1.8 (H=1)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.9)14 (-4.2)16 (-2.2)14 (-6.2)
1Tyler Lockett564359100011.914.913.414.9
1Brandon Marshall376346100010.613.612.113.6

Amari Cooper (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6600)

1vs LAR6931901901.
2PROJ-Dodds4600.40008.412.410.4 (H=16)12.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay3450.31606.99.98.4 (H=11)9.9 (H=16)
2PROJ-Bloom5520.30007129.5 (H=14)12.0 (H=22)

Jordy Nelson (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5000)

1vs LAR72432300002.
2PROJ-Dodds4460.30006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay4410.30005.99.97.9 (H=11)9.9 (H=21)
2PROJ-Bloom4370.20004.98.96.9 (H=9)8.9 (H=17)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs LAR47211100001.
2PROJ-Dodds2300.10003.65.64.6 (H=6)5.6 (H=13)
2PROJ-Tremblay2230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+11.4)29 (+11.2)29 (+11.4)29 (+14.0)
1Will Dissly3353105116.519.518.022.5

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs LAR671291800182722.530.0
2PROJ-Dodds4470.36.510.58.5 (H=16)10.5 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay5590.37.712.710.2 (H=22)12.7 (H=45)
2PROJ-Bloom4470.36.510.58.5 (H=16)10.5 (H=32)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-1.2)9T (-1.2)9T (-1.9) (+0.0)
1Sebastian Janikowski1233666.00.0

Mike Nugent (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs LAR2211778.00.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-1.7)15T (-1.7)10T (-2.3)10T (-2.3)
1Seattle Seahawks2747013000777.07.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2300)

1vs LAR33.0036510000111.01.0
2PROJ-Dodds25.103732.30.80.600.3777.0 (H=16)7.0 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay25.503762.30.90.600. (H=15)6.9 (H=24)

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.4)17 (-0.5)17 (-0.0)17 (-0.9)
1Jared Goff631833233201-1019.619.617.217.2

Case Keenum (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5800)

1vs SEA7425393293300025.525.522.225.2
2PROJ-Dodds23362571.50.9270.119.319.319.3 (H=50)19.3 (H=58)
2PROJ-Tremblay22362531.60.900018.218.218.2 (H=45)18.2 (H=52)
2PROJ-Bloom23362371.71110.118.418.418.4 (H=46)18.4 (H=53)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+3.3)22T (+2.7)22 (+3.3)24 (+5.2)
1Todd Gurley592010805339120.723.722.226.7
1Malcolm Brown4150221802.

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4300)

1vs SEA291571000007.
2PROJ-Dodds15580.52150.110.912.911.9 (H=24)12.9 (H=39)
2PROJ-Tremblay16660.518010.411.410.9 (H=20)11.4 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom18780.516011.412.411.9 (H=24)12.4 (H=36)

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs SEA26157103231116.
2PROJ-Dodds10390.321206.98.97.9 (H=14)8.9 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay12500.421208.610.69.6 (H=20)10.6 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom11440.22190. (H=18)10.1 (H=24)

Devontae Booker (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs SEA19240221101.
2PROJ-Dodds27011001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay2601801.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom23021201.53.52.5 (H=1)3.5 (H=4)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+4.1)22 (+5.0)21 (+4.0)21 (+3.0)
1Cooper Kupp6195521216012.817.815.317.8
1Brandin Cooks61858701609.314.311.814.3

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6200)

1vs SEA641110135100019.529.524.532.5
2PROJ-Dodds6680.50009.815.812.8 (H=24)15.8 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay6690.40009.315.312.3 (H=22)15.3 (H=36)
2PROJ-Bloom6770.500010.716.713.7 (H=27)16.7 (H=42)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs SEA5310663100012.318.315.318.3
2PROJ-Dodds6670.50009.715.712.7 (H=23)15.7 (H=42)
2PROJ-Tremblay6720.500010.216.213.2 (H=24)16.2 (H=44)
2PROJ-Bloom5560.60009.214.211.7 (H=20)14.2 (H=35)

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs SEA44524500004.
2PROJ-Dodds3380.2000586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom2360.30005.47.46.4 (H=10)7.4 (H=18)

Tim Patrick (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs SEA92000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds11200001.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.2)1 (-10.4)1 (-8.2)1 (-10.6)
1Johnny Mundt200000.

Jake Butt (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs SEA36422902.
2PROJ-Dodds2200. (H=3)4.6 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay2250. (H=6)5.7 (H=15)
2PROJ-Bloom2230. (H=4)4.9 (H=11)

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs SEA60111501.
2PROJ-Dodds11101.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay1700.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.8)32 (+7.8)32 (+9.1) (+0.0)
1Greg Zuerlein4533151517.00.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs SEA22339913.00.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.3)26 (+4.3)29T (+7.7)29T (+7.7)
1Los Angeles Rams1339513001131317.017.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs SEA24.0030662100121212.012.0
2PROJ-Dodds19.703302.210.800.5101010.0 (H=23)10.0 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay19.503272.310.800.510.110.110.1 (H=24)10.1 (H=33)