Matchup Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Eagles 23, Buccaneers 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Eagles Offense18.0 (-5.9) (23)113 (+0) (18)119 (-118) (31)
Buccaneers Defense40.0 (+16.1) (29)43 (-70) (2)432 (+194) (32)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Buccaneers Offense48.0 (+24.1) (1)112 (-1) (19)417 (+179) (3)
Eagles Defense12.0 (-11.9) (4)74 (-39) (6)225 (-12) (14)

Eagles Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Even with the Eagles passing game on life support all night, the run game found enough openings in Week 1 to produce somewhat. It’s clear that Jay Ajayi runs the show – despite playing just 28 snaps, he took 15 carries, good for 60% of the backfield’s workload. He looked solid in the process, finding holes and creating space on the edges. His numbers (62 yards) weren’t dazzling, but he played well off of his elite blockers and found the end zone 3 times, including his two-point conversion. On passing downs, the team utilizes Corey Clement and Darren Sproles on shotgun draws and counters, and Clement also looked explosive in the opener. His late 21-yard scamper converted a third down and set up Ajayi’s winning scores. All in all, this run game isn’t particularly sexy, but it operates behind a truly dominant front line, one that greatly maximizes its backfield’s talents.

It’s hard to gauge from Week 1 how the Tampa Bay run defense is set up for 2018. The Buccaneers got out to a big lead which kept the Saints from running the ball much, retreating into pass-only mode in the third quarter. As a result, it’s yet to be known whether last year’s subpar unit has improved. The team has thoroughly rebuilt its defensive front, though massive first-round pick Vita Vea has yet to debut. We do know that the linebacking corps, led by Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, is active and dynamic and that Alvin Kamara managed just 29 yards on 8 carries in the opener. There’s definitely reason for some degree of Week 2 optimism, though this remains a targetable group for fantasy purposes.

Eagles Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

The Eagles can’t get Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery back soon enough. This passing game struggled mightily in the opener; Nick Foles wove magic in last year’s playoffs but is still a massive downgrade in this offense. The Eagles have to pare down their dynamic playbook quite a bit for Foles as he struggles to throw deep, getting by almost entirely on gadget plays and short throws to Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. In Week 1, he managed to complete just 19 of his 34 throws in that ultra-safe check down game, and only one went for more than 10 yards. His presence severely dings Agholor’s outlook – the de facto No. 1 wideout caught 8 balls last week, but for just 33 yards. That’s a severe waste of his downfield ability; he, Mike Wallace, and the entire big-play game plan will be handcuffed while Foles is under center. Zach Ertz’s Week 1 was brutal, featuring several drops, but he remains the engine of this unit for the time being and the Eagles will rely on him to get back to his playmaking abilities.

It appears not much has changed for the Tampa Bay pass defense. After a horrendous 2017 that saw them allow more passing yards than anyone, they opened 2018 by giving Drew Brees virtually everything he wanted (82% completions for 439 yards and 3 touchdowns). Michael Thomas is a fantastic receiver, but it was disheartening to see just how easy his downfield production was. The Buccaneers are still looking for their pass rush, which didn’t show up in Week 1, and remain extremely susceptible over the middle. The team desperately needs back cornerback Brent Grimes, still capable of shutting down strong No. 1 wideouts, to even compete in this area. But Grimes looks on the doubtful side of questionable for Week 2, so coverage should continue to be a huge hole. There’s plenty of talent assembled on this defense – and losing slot man Vernon Hargreaves for the year might be addition by subtraction – but it looks like it’ll be a slow grind to success. This unit remains ideal to target for fantasy purposes.

Buccaneers Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

This is clearly and plainly Peyton Barber’s backfield. Second-round rookie Ronald Jones was a healthy Week 1 scratch after a horrendous preseason, and there’s little indication he’ll dress – let alone contribute – in Week 2. Barber doesn’t boast any one great talent, but his case is helped by an improving offensive line. Steady left tackle Donovan Smith made it through Week 1 without a setback; his presence is crucial for this group. New playcaller Todd Monken likes to give him fullback help, too, which boosts Barber’s power-game outlook. Over 6 games as the team’s clear lead back, Barber averaged 67 yards and hasn’t fallen below 51. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s legs made an appearance last week, and his “always look for a play” mentality often works well for his offenses. He’s always quick to create a draw and take off, and he found the end zone in Week 1.

The Philadelphia run defense wasn’t tested much in Week 1, as Atlanta made Julio Jones its unquestioned focal point and Devonta Freeman went out with an injury. For what little we saw the Falcons run, it was encouraging to see the Eagles rushing defense consistently stifle a strong Falcons run game, especially with multiple starters out. Aside from a 20-yard run by Devonta Freeman on the opening drive, there wasn’t a gain of more than Their goal-line stand at the end of that first possession was a thing of beauty. New linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill played a big role in that stand and showed generally well in a spot expected to be trouble for this tattered defense. In Week 2, they’ll remain without nose tackle Timmy Jernigan, but Haloti Ngata and Destiny Vaeao filled in nicely inside last week. This is a defense that allowed the fewest yards per game rushing last season and look to be a very strong unit this season as well.

Buccaneers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Perhaps it was just the matchup, but the Saints defense looked dreadful in Week 1 allowing the Tampa Bay passing game to have a tremendous game without Jameis Winston. Fourteenth-year veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick looked poised and crisp in New Orleans, completing 75% of his throws for a near-perfect passer rating. He’s a great fit as the Buccaneers’ backup because, like Winston, he’s aggressive down the field and unafraid to seek out splash plays. With the assembly of dynamic talent and physical prowess they throw to, it’s not surprising to see performances like last week’s. Fitzpatrick has now subbed extensively for Winston in 5 games and topped 275 yards in 4 of them, and he projects as the week’s top streaming option. His receivers generally hold their value without Winston, too. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and DeSean Jackson took turns making big plays against the Saints’ talented but gambling cornerbacks. All told, this unit is volatile and could implode as quickly as erupt. The good news is that its components aren’t lagging in value with the backup quarterback filling in for Jameis Winston

The Eagles had little answer for Julio Jones in Week 1, allowing 10 catches for 169 yards. But they’ll take that performance any day of the week. By allowing Matt Ryan to find him at will, the Philadelphia secondary stuck to the rest of the Falcons like glue, and no other wideout caught a pass for more than 10 yards. In fact, all non-Jones wide receivers totaled just 4 receptions for 18 yards – all by Mohamed Sanu – and rookie Calvin Ridley was erased from the game plan. Jones himself was stifled in crucial spots, especially on the final drive, where the Eagles disrupted all 3 of his targets from inside the 10-yard line. This isn’t a perfect unit exampled by Jones having his way with cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills. This is a passing defense that is setup by the pass rush and as long as this pass rush remains dominant, the secondary will be protected. Last Thursday, the dynamic rushers sacked Matt Ryan four times and knocked him around many others. It’s good to see Brandon Graham healthy on the edge, and the rest of the team’s rotation is similarly explosive.

Buccaneers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+14.0)31 (+13.9)31 (+14.3)31 (+16.4)
1Drew Brees6437454393000034.034.031.634.6

Nick Foles (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5700)

1vs ATL721934117011-
2PROJ-Dodds23362531.61250. (H=45)19.2 (H=58)
2PROJ-Tremblay22362551.51.112017.817.817.8 (H=40)17.8 (H=51)
2PROJ-Bloom21331901.60.9000151515.0 (H=29)15.0 (H=38)

Buccaneers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+13.3)30 (+16.7)30 (+15.3)30 (+20.2)
1Alvin Kamara528292129112132.141.138.646.1
1Mike Gillislee739000000.90.9-1.1-0.1

Jay Ajayi (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6300)

1vs ATL2915622000018.
2PROJ-Dodds17750.4212011.113.112.1 (H=22)13.1 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay18840.4213012.114.113.1 (H=25)14.1 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom17770.518011.512.512.0 (H=21)12.5 (H=25)

Darren Sproles (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs ATL295100742203.
2PROJ-Dodds3140.13270. (H=11)8.4 (H=16)
2PROJ-Tremblay5230.24330.17.411.49.5 (H=19)11.5 (H=29)
2PROJ-Bloom4130.23200. (H=10)8.2 (H=16)

Corey Clement (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs ATL13526000002.
2PROJ-Dodds5230.21704.25.24.7 (H=5)5.2 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay5210.20003.33.33.3 (H=3)3.3 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom4190.22130.1576.0 (H=8)7.0 (H=16)

Buccaneers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+17.0)30 (+27.9)29 (+21.9)30 (+29.9)
1Michael Thomas611716180100024.
1Ted Ginn506568115013.318.317.820.3

Nelson Agholor (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $6100)

1vs ATL6810833011605.713.79.513.5
2PROJ-Dodds5610.415091411.5 (H=22)14.0 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay5660.516010.215.212.7 (H=26)15.2 (H=36)
2PROJ-Bloom6470.50007.713.710.7 (H=19)13.7 (H=30)

Mike Wallace (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs ATL663000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2320.20004.46.45.4 (H=7)6.4 (H=12)
2PROJ-Tremblay2280.10003.45.44.4 (H=4)5.4 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom2260.20003.85.84.8 (H=5)5.8 (H=10)

DeAndre Carter (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL5311100000121.52.0
2PROJ-Dodds1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Markus Wheaton (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL20000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1600000.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Shelton Gibson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL40000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0600000.60.60.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Buccaneers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (-0.3)22 (+0.5)23 (+0.2)22 (+0.3)
1Ben Watson51444404.

Zach Ertz (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $6100)

1vs ATL701054804.
2PROJ-Dodds6620. (H=23)15.2 (H=36)
2PROJ-Tremblay6670.59.715.712.7 (H=25)15.7 (H=38)
2PROJ-Bloom5530.58.313.310.8 (H=18)13.3 (H=28)

Dallas Goedert (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs ATL1731400.
2PROJ-Dodds1190. (H=4)4.1 (H=8)
2PROJ-Tremblay2240. (H=7)5.6 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=4)

Buccaneers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-1.2)9T (-1.2)9T (-1.9) (+0.0)
1Wil Lutz1133666.00.0

Jake Elliott (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs ATL1111444.00.0

Buccaneers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.7)1 (-8.7)1 (-13.3)1 (-13.3)
1New Orleans Saints485290000000-4.0-4.0

Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs ATL12.00299410006610.010.0
2PROJ-Dodds19.603402.31.10.800. (H=23)9.7 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.253502.41.10.800.510.410.410.4 (H=26)10.4 (H=33)

Eagles vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-7.6)8 (-7.7)8 (-7.4)7 (-8.3)
1Matt Ryan7021432510128012.412.49.89.8

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5500)

1@ NO662128417401236146.546.542.345.3
2PROJ-Dodds23372521.31.24180.1191919.0 (H=48)19.0 (H=59)
2PROJ-Tremblay22362551.41.15180.119.619.619.6 (H=50)19.6 (H=62)
2PROJ-Bloom17351891.41.35210.116.416.416.4 (H=37)16.4 (H=46)

Eagles vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-4.2)9 (-5.8)11 (-4.7)10 (-6.3)
1Tevin Coleman3691912126010.511.511.011.5
1Devonta Freeman396360531405.

Peyton Barber (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ NO481969000006.
2PROJ-Dodds16630.41809.510.510.0 (H=17)10.5 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay17670.40009.19.19.1 (H=14)9.1 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom14450.30006.36.36.3 (H=7)6.3 (H=12)

Jacquizz Rodgers (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ NO1521011200.
2PROJ-Dodds31203210. (H=8)7.0 (H=16)
2PROJ-Tremblay2701601.32.31.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom2601501.12.11.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Ronald Jones II (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3900)

2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Eagles vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-2.5)17 (-0.6)17 (-2.1)18 (+0.4)
1Julio Jones5719101690111018.
1Mohamed Sanu56641800001.

Mike Evans (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7300)

1@ NO5077147100020.727.724.230.7
2PROJ-Dodds5760.4000101512.5 (H=20)15.0 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay6720.40009.615.612.6 (H=20)15.6 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom5710.40009.514.512.0 (H=18)14.5 (H=28)

Chris Godwin (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ NO464341100010.113.111.613.1
2PROJ-Dodds3460.20005.88.87.3 (H=10)8.8 (H=18)
2PROJ-Tremblay4500.20006.210.28.2 (H=12)10.2 (H=24)
2PROJ-Bloom3370.50006.79.78.2 (H=12)9.7 (H=22)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ NO44532700002.
2PROJ-Dodds3390.20005.18.16.7 (H=11)8.2 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay2250.10003.15.14.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom5410.20005.310.37.9 (H=15)10.4 (H=33)

DeSean Jackson (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4900)

1@ NO2055146200026.631.629.134.6
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay4450.20005.79.77.7 (H=10)9.7 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Eagles vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-3.8)8T (-5.0)8T (-4.3)8T (-5.2)
1Austin Hooper59432402.

O.J. Howard (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ NO43225405.
2PROJ-Dodds3310. (H=7)7.3 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay3260. (H=6)6.8 (H=17)
2PROJ-Bloom2280.2465.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=13)

Cameron Brate (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ NO242000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds3260. (H=7)6.8 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom170. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Alan Cross (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ NO151000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Eagles vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-1.2)9T (-1.2)15T (+0.1) (+0.0)
1Matt Bryant2201668.00.0

Chandler Catanzaro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ NO2366121212.00.0

Eagles vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-2.7)10T (-2.7)10T (-2.3)10T (-2.3)
1Atlanta Falcons1823221100667.07.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2200)

1@ NO40.004751020117177.07.0
2PROJ-Dodds23.5038320.90.700. (H=21)7.9 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.253912.31.10.600. (H=25)8.6 (H=37)