Matchup Analysis: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Vikings 22, Packers 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense24.0 (+0.1) (13)116 (+2) (16)227 (-10) (17)
Packers Defense23.0 (-0.9) (16)139 (+25) (24)155 (-82) (7)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense24.0 (+0.1) (12)69 (-44) (28)301 (+63) (7)
Vikings Defense16.0 (-7.9) (7)90 (-23) (9)237 (+0) (18)

Vikings Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Vikings rushing offense did not look sharp in their Week 1 debut behind suspect offensive line play. Dalvin Cook was the clear starter and workhorse here as he played 80 percent of the snaps compared to only 20 percent for Latavius Murray. Cook made much more of an impact through the air than he did on the ground though, averaging just 2.5 yards per rush attempt with no touchdowns, a fumble, and only one rush of over seven yards. Cook actually closed out the game gaining one or fewer yards on five of his final seven carries as the offensive line looked absolutely gassed. Latavius Murray remains a factor here, but the workload allocated to Cook help to dispel any question marks surrounding his health coming off the ACL injury. The Vikings hope to return center Pat Elflein this week after he missed the entire preseason and last week’s game. Elflein’s return will certainly help, but the Vikings offensive line will still grade out as a below average unit with a particularly weak right side.

The Packers run defense had some bright spots in Week 1, but overall they struggled to stop Jordan Howard and the Bears. Howard averaged 5.5 yards per rush attempt while Mitchell Trubisky found room to run for 32 yards and a rushing touchdown on seven scrambles. Interior linemen Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels had solid games, as expected by two of the best defensive players for the Packers. Clark was particularly effective against the run, single-handedly clogging up Jordan Howard on multiple occasions. The Packers seemed to struggle with the outside runs last week, as their outside linebacker and cornerback play in run defense was not up to par. Clay Matthews ended up having quite a rough night, recording only one tackle despite playing 60 snaps. This run defense will need to improve on the edges, but they continue to have the interior locked down with solid tackle and inside linebacker play.

Vikings Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Kirk Cousins had a successful Vikings debut last week, completing just over 55% of his passes for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. He showed great chemistry with most of his top receiving options, most notable Adam Thielen who dominated Cousins’ attention with 12 targets. Thielen ran most routes out of the slot as he was very impressive in the middle of the field to rack up over 100 receiving yards on the day. Stefon Diggs only hauled in three receptions, but he made a couple of early big plays including a 22-yard touchdown reception. Dalvin Cook was heavily involved in the passing game last week as well, garnering the second-most team targets with seven. Cook hauled in six of those targets for 55 receiving yards, finishing as the second most productive receiver behind Thielen. The one letdown from a usage perspective was Kyle Rudolph, who was targeted only twice. Rudolph did what he is most known for though as he served as a solid red-zone option with a touchdown reception from the 11-yard line, but he will need to be more involved to be considered a viable fantasy option on a weekly basis.

The Packers managed to apply consistent pressure on Mitchell Trubisky last week to help limit the Bears to under 175 passing yards and no touchdowns through the air. With three sacks, one coming from the secondary, the Packers defensive front did a solid job against a mediocre Bears offensive line. They face a lower ranked Vikings line this week which should give the advantage to Green Bay here. The Packers cornerbacks were decent, but not particularly spectacular on an individual level. Rookie Jaire Alexander made the most plays impactful plays out of the slot last week while Kevin King underwhelmed on the outside. Adam Thielen looks to draw coverage from Alexander out of the slot while Stefon Diggs should see most snaps against Tramon Williams in a relatively even size matchup in which Diggs has the clear speed advantage.

Packers Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

Jamaal Williams will remain the Packers’ lead running back this week as Aaron Jones serves the second and final game of his suspension. Williams started strong last week with a long run of 11-yards on the Packers’ first possession, but he failed to produce much thereafter as the game script shifted to a pass-heavy approach. Williams saw 62% of the snaps compared to 38% for Ty Montgomery, who rushed only two times for seven yards. The Packers offensive line has the talent to block effectively for Williams, but he was not finding many open lanes last week in a tough matchup. With the matchup this week even tougher, Williams does not have a positive outlook.

The Vikings defense looked unstoppable last week against the 49ers. They allowed only 3.6 yards per rush attempt for 90 rushing yards as this defensive line was absolutely dominant. Linval Joseph picked up right where he left off last season as one of the best interior run defenders in the game while Sheldon Richardson was virtually unblockable in his first full game of action with the Vikings. Eric Kendricks could have had a better game at linebacker, but the Vikings safeties, notably Harrison Smith, helped make up for it as he was all over the field. This unit came into the season as one of the most highly touted run defenses, and they lived up to the hype in Week 1. Considering the Packers struggled to find running room against the Bears last week, they will most certainly have a tough time with this Vikings defense.

Packers Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

Aaron Rodgers overcame the second-largest 4th quarter deficit the Packers have ever faced at Lambeau Field while basically playing on one leg last week as he led his squad to victory. After being carted off with a knee injury, Rodgers returned after halftime with a noticeable hobble as he finished out the game. As of Wednesday, his status for this week’s game is uncertain. Rodgers definitely did not help his case for playing time in Week 2 by pushing the injury in last week’s game, so keep an eye on his status leading into Sunday. Randall Cobb had one heck of a game as he led the team in all receiving categories on his way to 142 yards with a 75-yard touchdown bomb mixed into that stat line. Davante Adams also scored as he finished behind Cobb in targets, but still looked dominant throughout the night. Keep an eye on Geronimo Allison as a third option in this passing offense, as he was peppered with just as many targets as Adams while also making it into the end zone with a nice catch. The one disappointment for this offense was tight end Jimmy Graham, who was only targeted only four times with no red zone looks despite lining up on all but one offensive snap.

New addition Sheldon Richardson was a constant nightmare for Jimmy Garoppolo last week as he was one of the most effective defensive linemen in the league in terms of putting pressure on the quarterback. The Packers have a much stronger offensive line than San Francisco, but their strength lies at the tackle position, which will not help much against the two hyper-talented Vikings defensive tackles. Outside cornerback Trae Waynes was sidelined with a knee injury after a relatively rough outing in Week 1. Waynes is a talented player who normally is better than what he showed last week, and he should see most snaps against Geronimo Allison here, which is not as daunting as the likes of Davante Adams despite Allison’s strong showing last week. Adams should see coverage from Xavier Rhodes, which is never a great matchup. Rhodes helped limit Adams to only 54 receiving yards in their one meeting last season. Harrison Smith was literally everywhere in last week’s outing, including providing excellent coverage and pass-rushing. He will be a matchup problem for all Packers skilled positions, but most notably Jimmy Graham as will see some coverage from Smith.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.2)14 (-2.3)13 (-3.2)14 (-3.1)
1Mitchell Trubisky70233517100732117.817.814.015.0

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6400)

1vs SF71203624420426022.822.820.420.4
2PROJ-Dodds24362701.60.93110.221.321.321.3 (H=53)21.3 (H=62)
2PROJ-Tremblay22342591.50.94130.220.620.620.6 (H=50)20.6 (H=58)
2PROJ-Bloom22332371.70.73130.220.520.520.5 (H=49)20.5 (H=58)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-4.3)15T (-0.9)14 (-2.3)16 (-1.4)
1Jordan Howard50158205525010.715.713.215.7
1Tarik Cohen285250431604.

Dalvin Cook (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $6500)

1vs SF5716400765509.515.510.514.5
2PROJ-Dodds15580.45350.112.317.314.8 (H=32)17.3 (H=42)
2PROJ-Tremblay15620.44340.112.616.614.6 (H=31)16.6 (H=39)
2PROJ-Bloom16530.45410.112.417.414.9 (H=33)17.4 (H=43)

Latavius Murray (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs SF141142000004.
2PROJ-Dodds10440.31706.97.97.4 (H=11)7.9 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay10410.30005.95.95.9 (H=7)5.9 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom9400.40006.46.46.4 (H=9)6.4 (H=10)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-12.3)9 (-13.4)7 (-13.4)9 (-15.4)
1Allen Robinson67746100006.
1Taylor Gabriel60552500002.

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6900)

1vs SF616343118011.114.112.614.1
2PROJ-Dodds5680.514010.215.212.7 (H=22)15.2 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay4620.41509.113.111.1 (H=17)13.1 (H=24)
2PROJ-Bloom4650.615010.614.612.6 (H=21)14.6 (H=30)

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $7100)

1vs SF68126102000010.
2PROJ-Dodds6750.40009.915.912.9 (H=22)15.9 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay5710.30008.913.911.4 (H=17)13.9 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom6810.400010.516.513.5 (H=23)16.5 (H=36)

Laquon Treadwell (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs SF38421800001.
2PROJ-Dodds2300.20004.26.25.2 (H=7)6.2 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom2150.20002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-3.8)8T (-5.0)8T (-4.3)8T (-5.2)
1Trey Burton61611501.

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4200)

1vs SF59211117.
2PROJ-Dodds4410. (H=12)9.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay4370. (H=12)10.1 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom3280. (H=9)8.2 (H=18)

David Morgan (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs SF3011900.
2PROJ-Dodds1800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1700.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=2)

Tyler Conklin (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs SF911600.
2PROJ-Dodds000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+3.8)27T (+3.8)23T (+3.1) (+0.0)
1Cody Parkey3322111111.00.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs SF1133667.00.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.3)27 (+5.3)27 (+4.7)27 (+4.7)
1Chicago Bears2437041101141414.014.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2600)

1vs SF16.0032733101171718.018.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.103412.50.90.600. (H=18)8.6 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay22.503122.210.700. (H=21)9.3 (H=36)

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-5.3)10 (-5.4)11T (-5.2)9 (-6.1)
1Jimmy Garoppolo6615332611326014.714.712.012.0

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8700, DraftKings: $6800)

1vs CHI46203028630115027.827.824.924.9
2PROJ-Dodds24362641.80.826020.220.220.2 (H=41)20.2 (H=53)
2PROJ-Tremblay18271861.40.5150.115.515.515.5 (H=26)15.5 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom25362391.90.5130.119.919.919.9 (H=40)19.9 (H=52)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-5.2)6 (-8.8)5 (-8.7)5 (-10.3)
1Kyle Juszczyk26000215605.
1Matt Breida301146021505.

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5200)

1vs CHI371547020004.
2PROJ-Dodds17650.52140.111.513.512.5 (H=26)13.5 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay20740.5111011.512.512.0 (H=24)12.5 (H=30)
2PROJ-Bloom17520.321108.110.19.1 (H=15)10.1 (H=21)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs CHI23270322102.
2PROJ-Dodds4190.12170. (H=7)6.8 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay3100.12140. (H=4)5.6 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom280.13190. (H=6)6.9 (H=15)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-5.3)11 (-9.4)12 (-7.9)11 (-11.4)
1Dante Pettis485261100012.
1Trent Taylor37642800002.

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $6800)

1vs CHI598588100014.819.817.319.8
2PROJ-Dodds5690.50009.914.912.4 (H=19)14.9 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay5610.50009.114.111.6 (H=17)14.1 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom5650.50009.514.512.0 (H=18)14.5 (H=30)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs CHI52109142100020.229.224.732.2
2PROJ-Dodds5560.30007.412.49.9 (H=17)12.4 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay5560.30007.412.49.9 (H=17)12.4 (H=34)
2PROJ-Bloom6580.40008.214.211.2 (H=21)14.2 (H=43)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs CHI428569100012.917.915.417.9
2PROJ-Dodds4420.30006108.0 (H=14)10.0 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay4460.20005.89.87.8 (H=14)9.8 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom4450.30006.310.38.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=29)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.8)25 (+3.6)25 (+3.3)25 (+3.4)
1George Kittle51959009.014.011.514.0

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4800)

1vs CHI5942800.
2PROJ-Dodds4380. (H=12)10.2 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay4310. (H=10)9.5 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom4310. (H=12)10.1 (H=22)

Lance Kendricks (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs CHI19111301.
2PROJ-Dodds180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.8)25T (+2.8)23T (+3.1) (+0.0)
1Robbie Gould3311101011.00.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs CHI1133667.00.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-3.7)6T (-3.7)8T (-3.3)8T (-3.3)
1San Francisco 49ers2434330100556.06.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs CHI23.0029440100667.07.0
2PROJ-Dodds23.803722.20.90.600. (H=18)7.9 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.503832.20.90.600. (H=18)7.9 (H=28)