Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 21, Jets 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense27.0 (+3.1) (9)120 (+6) (13)222 (-15) (20)
Jets Defense17.0 (-6.9) (9)39 (-74) (1)300 (+62) (25)

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense48.0 (+24.1) (2)169 (+55) (3)180 (-57) (23)
Dolphins Defense20.0 (-3.9) (12)116 (+2) (18)220 (-17) (12)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Dolphins find themselves saddled with a great problem as their two-headed backfield is composed of two solid runners. In a bizarre turn of Week 1 events, Kenyan Drake was mostly bottled up (48 yards on 14 attempts), while ageless wonder Frank Gore produced a handful of chunk runs (9 for 61). This looks like a ďhot handĒ type of backfield, but itís at least encouraging that the offense boasts two viable runners. Whatís even more encouraging is the play of the offensive line. Left guard Josh Sitton remains an elite run-blocker when healthy; two teams have given up the ghost on his injury history, but the Dolphins will revel in any strong line play they can get. And right tackle JuíWuan James remains a quality edge blocker while firmly under the radar. This run game looks poised to produce, even if the week-to-week production is hard to pinpoint.

The Jets throttled the Lionsí non-existent run game in Week 1, allowing a combined 34 yards to Kerryon Johnson, LeGarrette Blount, and Theo Riddick. Itís tough to glean much from that as Detroitís rushing attack remains a black hole, and they had no chance at establishing a rhythm in the 48-17 loss. Not helping matters was LeGarrette Blount leaving the game due to a knee injury. But it wasnít atypical for the Jets, who spent most of 2017 bottling up elite runners. (The combination of Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, and Jay Ajayi averaged just 2.8 yards per carry against them.) With serviceable line play and active linebackers, the Jets make for a tough run-game matchup.

Dolphins Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jets defense.

Ryan Tannehill remains generally overmatched as a downfield passer. He flashes as a game manager, an Alex Smith type, though he still makes too many mistakes in traffic to be fully relied upon. In Week 1, he hit on 20 of his 28 throws, keeping drives moving and generating 5 scoring drives. Still, despite his 75-yard touchdown strike to Kenny Stills, Tannehill is not a threatening guy. Apart from that long ball, Tannehill produced just 155 yards on 27 attempts, with only a single completion beyond 13 yards. Some of that is his supporting cast Ė Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, and rookie tight end Mike Gesicki donít make for a very tantalizing crew behind Stills. But in Tannehill, the Dolphins have a career 5.62 adjusted net yards per attempt, and not much reason to project a 75-yard score every week. Most of the time, Tannehill will be checking down near the line of scrimmage, and the ceiling for this group will be limited.

The Jets struggled against the pass throughout 2017, and even in their dominant Week 1 still allowed a handful of splash plays. Prized cornerback addition Trumaine Johnson was beaten for 26- and 25-yard strikes to Kenny Golladay both before prevent defense kicked in. It was at least encouraging to see second-year safety Jamal Adams mixing in and making plays on the ball in coverage. The Jets lack a pass rush, and their cornerback play can be spotty, but theyíre also breaking in two talented, highly-drafted safeties. Adams and Marcus Maye bring athleticism and ball skills to a unit in need of both.

Jets Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell punished the Lions run defense in Week 1, to the tune of 162 yards on 22 combined rushes. Crowell was the most explosive, as witnessed by his 62-yard scoring scamper. A forgotten man in many football circles, Crowell is only 2 years removed from a 4.8-yard-per-carry, 7-touchdown season for a bad Browns team. The former five-star Georgia recruit has impressive athleticism and balance, and chunk runs arenít a new thing for him. Crowell was an under-the-radar signing for a young Jets team in need of affordable dynamism. Powell, underrated as a runner in his own right, looked fresh and eruptive as well. Fantasy players, however, need to keep in mind that their success came against a Lions unit that has reportedly already turned on its head coach. They could be a dumpster fire for much of 2018, and we may well look at Week 1 as the best week the Jetsí backs had all year.

A few blown plays aside, the Miami run defense showed generally well in Week 1. Tennesseeís Dion Lewis broke off a 26-yard run and scored a bit too easily from the goal line, but all told, the Dolphins gave up less than most had expected. Derrick Henry (26 yards on 10 carries) was effectively bottled up, given no chance at the breakaway runs heís capable of. The defensive tackle rotation lacks star power with Ndamukong Suh gone, but Akeem Spence and company made enough plays in the gaps to keep the bleeding low. And Reshad Jones proved heís still an elite safety in run support. Last yearís Miami run defense was average across the board, and this iteration looks similar.

Jets Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Itís true that they were facing a talent-deprived Lions defense that seemed to have given up in Week 1. But the Jets still deserve plenty of credit for the clinic they put on, and Sam Darnold is to be commended for his debut. The youngest quarterback to start a game in over 50 years, Darnold dinked and dunked his way to a 16-of-21, 2-touchdown opener, showing poise and polish and refusing to commit another mistake after an early pick-six. His weaponry isnít great, so it makes sense that heís not pushing things. It wasnít surprising to see Robby Anderson shake loose for a 41-yard touchdown, but it was bizarre that he wasnít targeted again. Thatís probably a sign of the times, though. The Jets have little interest in pushing Darnold to wing the ball deep downfield; this should remain a sanitized, low-risk attack for the foreseeable future. Quincy Enunwa should remain busy in the slot, running short but physical routes a few yards downfield. The real wild card is Terrelle Pryor, who rose from the preseason ashes to play 24 snaps and catch a few impact balls. Heíll never be predictable, but he could still be the dynamic playmaker he was in Cleveland just two years ago.

Thereís promise in the Dolphins pass defense, but itís still not a strong unit. The team looks to have found a stud in cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick: the rookie was all over the field over 44 snaps in his debut, breaking up key passes and hounding Corey Davis on screens. The other cornerbacks, however, were exposed here and there, as they consistently were in 2017. Xavien Howard, in particular, continues to struggle in coverage. The pass rush looked nonexistent in Week 1, too, failing to record a sack against Marcus Mariota or Blaine Gabbert.

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-5.5)9 (-5.5)9 (-5.7)8 (-6.6)
1Matthew Stafford6327462861416014.914.912.012.0

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5300)

1vs TEN6220282302244017.917.915.615.6
2PROJ-Dodds23352581.51390.119.419.419.4 (H=54)19.4 (H=64)
2PROJ-Tremblay22352681.413110.119.719.719.7 (H=56)19.7 (H=65)
2PROJ-Bloom20332081.41.1370. (H=40)16.2 (H=46)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-12.8)4 (-10.4)4 (-11.3)4 (-10.9)
1Kerryon Johnson165170332003.
1Theo Riddick414200751503.

Kenyan Drake (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5800)

1vs TEN4614480431806.
2PROJ-Dodds11570.33270.110.813.812.3 (H=23)13.8 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay13560.44290.111.515.513.5 (H=27)15.5 (H=39)
2PROJ-Bloom15620.43220.111.414.412.9 (H=25)14.4 (H=34)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs TEN18961000006.
2PROJ-Dodds7310.21604.95.95.4 (H=7)5.9 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay8320.20004.44.44.4 (H=4)4.4 (H=6)
2PROJ-Bloom7340.30005.25.25.2 (H=6)5.2 (H=8)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+9.0)27 (+15.9)25 (+11.9)26 (+16.9)
1Golden Tate5715779100013.920.917.420.9
1Kenny Golladay65127114000011.418.414.921.4

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5700)

1vs TEN5954106200022.626.624.629.6
2PROJ-Dodds4570.40008.112.110.1 (H=17)12.1 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay4630.40008.712.710.7 (H=18)12.7 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom4630.50009.313.311.3 (H=20)13.3 (H=31)

Danny Amendola (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs TEN45642600002.
2PROJ-Dodds4410.30005.99.97.9 (H=14)9.9 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay4500.30006.810.88.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom4350.20004.78.76.7 (H=10)8.7 (H=18)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs TEN34433102703.
2PROJ-Dodds3380.22805.88.87.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay3370.221005.98.97.4 (H=12)8.9 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom3320.22705.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=20)

Jakeem Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs TEN25753800003.88.812.314.8
2PROJ-Dodds3350.20004.77.76.4 (H=11)7.9 (H=18)
2PROJ-Tremblay3390.20005.18.16.8 (H=12)8.3 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom4380.2000597.2 (H=13)9.2 (H=23)

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4500)

2PROJ-Dodds1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=1)3.1 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay3320.20004.47.45.9 (H=7)7.4 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.0)4 (-7.2)4 (-6.0)4 (-7.4)
1Levine Toilolo2011700.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2800)

1vs TEN21211101.
2PROJ-Dodds2200. (H=3)4.6 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=8)
2PROJ-Bloom2180.2354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=11)

A.J. Derby (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs TEN460000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.2)8 (-2.2)8 (-2.9) (+0.0)
1Matt Prater1322555.00.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs TEN2233999.00.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+3.3)22T (+3.3)14T (-1.3)14T (-1.3)
1Detroit Lions483492110112128.08.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $3100)

1vs TEN20.0033603001121213.013.0
2PROJ-Dodds23.103462.20.90.700. (H=21)8.3 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.00330210.700. (H=21)8.3 (H=25)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-10.5)4 (-10.5)4 (-9.9)4 (-10.8)
1Blaine Gabbert331122117010004.

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ DET601621198216-1016.816.814.814.8
2PROJ-Dodds21322331.313120.117.617.617.6 (H=43)17.6 (H=56)
2PROJ-Tremblay18302091.414160.217.817.817.8 (H=44)17.8 (H=57)
2PROJ-Bloom21331991.71350.116.916.916.9 (H=40)16.9 (H=52)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.4)19 (+0.8)20 (+0.9)18 (+0.3)
1Dion Lewis49167518535017.022.019.522.0
1Derrick Henry201026011503.

Isaiah Crowell (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ DET24101022000022.
2PROJ-Dodds12490.32140.18.710.79.7 (H=15)10.7 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay10430.31606.77.77.2 (H=9)7.7 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom11510.4180. (H=15)9.9 (H=23)

Bilal Powell (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ DET241260021506.
2PROJ-Dodds10490.321608.310.39.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay9370.32180. (H=14)9.9 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom12530.321008.110.19.1 (H=14)10.1 (H=21)

Trenton Cannon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ DET12615011602.
2PROJ-Dodds260.11501.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay4180.21603.64.64.1 (H=5)4.6 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom1301400.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-14.4)4 (-19.5)9 (-11.5)7T (-15.5)
1Corey Davis631366200006.
1Tajae Sharpe58311700001.

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5400)

1@ DET35114111-909.210.29.710.2
2PROJ-Dodds4570.31307.811.89.8 (H=16)11.8 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay3470.41507.610.69.1 (H=14)10.6 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom3450.50007.510.59.0 (H=14)10.5 (H=21)

Quincy Enunwa (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4700)

1@ DET4010663100012.318.315.318.3
2PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=9)7.8 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=17)10.9 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom6610.50009.115.112.1 (H=30)15.1 (H=46)

Terrelle Pryor (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ DET24334900004.
2PROJ-Dodds2300.20004.26.25.2 (H=6)6.2 (H=12)
2PROJ-Tremblay2270.20003.95.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom3390.30005.78.77.2 (H=11)8.7 (H=22)

Jermaine Kearse (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

2PROJ-Dodds2250.10003.15.14.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=8)
2PROJ-Tremblay1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.9)27 (+6.7)26 (+5.4)27 (+6.5)
1Delanie Walker39745205.

Neal Sterling (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ DET40332702.
2PROJ-Dodds2180. (H=4)4.4 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom3250. (H=8)6.7 (H=21)

Eric Tomlinson (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ DET2911700.
2PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom170. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Jordan Leggett (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ DET150000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chris Herndon (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (+0.8)17T (+0.8)23T (+3.1) (+0.0)
1Ryan Succop22228811.00.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ DET2266121212.00.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.3)21 (+2.3)19T (+1.7)19T (+1.7)
1Tennessee Titans2734212001111111.011.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ DET17.0033905002161626.026.0
2PROJ-Dodds19.903552.210.700. (H=25)9.2 (H=37)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.503832.410.700. (H=26)9.4 (H=38)