Matchup Analysis: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Texans 0, Titans 0

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense20.0 (-3.9) (22)167 (+53) (4)158 (-79) (25)
Titans Defense27.0 (+3.1) (22)120 (+6) (20)222 (-15) (13)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense20.0 (-3.9) (20)116 (+2) (15)220 (-17) (21)
Texans Defense27.0 (+3.1) (23)122 (+8) (21)267 (+29) (23)

Texans Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Lamar Miller shined as the clear lead back for the Texans rushing offense last week, rushing 20 times for 98 yards. Miller out-touched Alfred Blue 20-to-5 on the ground despite Blue stepping in for a goal-line carry to grab the lone rushing touchdown for the Texans. The knock on Miller has typically been his lack of efficiency, which would have held true last week if not for a 31-yard carry to pad what otherwise would have been around 3.5 rushing yards per attempt. Deshaun Watson chipped in with 40 yards on eight rushes despite his poor showing in the passing game. The Texans offensive line, if not already bad enough, was dealt an opening blow last week with the loss of right tackle Seantrel Henderson. Henderson was carted off last week with a broken ankle that will sideline him for the rest of the season. While Henderson was not a top lineman, his presence will be missed by an offensive line that was already ranked near the bottom in the league. This injury looks to force a rookie, Martinas Rankin, into the left tackle spot with Julien Davenport switching to right tackle as the Texans shuffle things around in an attempt at rolling out somewhat of a cohesive unit this week.

The Titans had a particularly tough time stopping the Dolphins ground game during the first half last week as they let Frank Gore run all over them, but this unit came together as the game progressed as they ended up holding Kenyan Drake to only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt for 48 rushing yards total while allowing no rushing touchdowns. Jurrell Casey made some nice stops, but he did not look quite up to speed as the usual kingpin of this rushing defense. Frank Gore showed that this linebacker group can be gashed as he routinely shed tackles during the first half last week. Wesley Woodyard was decent, but Jayon Brown had a very rough outing against the run. Despite their lackluster outing last week though, this Titans run defense should see a bounce-back opportunity this week this particularly weak Texans offensive line. The only watch-out will be the Titans’ ability to contain Deshaun Watson, who has the upside to run all over them if not contained properly.

Texans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Deshaun Watson had a forgettable season debut against the Patriots, completing just 50 percent of his passes for 176 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while taking three sacks. Watson lacked effective protection all day long as his offensive line proved they are in shambles. The situation on the line is made even worse now with the loss of starting right tackle Seantrel Henderson, which will likely downgrade this line to the worst pass-protection unit in the league. Watson was also without one of his primary weapons in Will Fuller, who was inactive due to a lingering hamstring issue. Fuller practiced on a limited basis last week and has a good chance at suiting up this week. Top Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins was targeted 11 times, hauling in eight of them for 78 yards. The poor offensive line looks to have a big impact all around for this offense, as Watson was never given the proper time or pocket to find Hopkins at a decent spot in his routes.

The Titans defense will certainly have a bad taste in their mouth from the 57 points allowed the last time they faced a Deshaun Watson led Texans offense in Week 4 last season. The Titans secondary had a very up and down outing last week against the Dolphins as they allowed a pair of passing touchdowns and 230 passing yards, but also forced a couple of interceptions and one sack. The cornerback performance overall was poor with Adoree Jackson getting routinely outplayed by Dolphins receivers while free agent addition Malcolm Butler was burned for a 75-yard touchdown by Kenny Stills. Butler did haul in an impressive interception in the end zone, but his Titans debut overall could have gone better. Hopkins should draw coverage from Butler on most snaps this week and has the clear advantage in this matchup. The Titans have a couple of strong safeties to help over the top, but after the big plays allowed last week, they will need to show some improvement to warrant any matchup advantages going forward.

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Titans started out their rushing attack in Week 1 just as most expected with Derrick Henry at the helm, feeding him the first seven carries of the game throughout the first two offensive possessions until Dion Lewis finally made it onto the field. Henry did not look sharp with his opportunities, averaging just 2.6 rushing yards per attempt. He did have a long touchdown run negated by a penalty, but overall, Henry’s first outing of the season left much to be desired. The Titans very quickly shifted their backfield to focusing on Lewis, who actually looked great both on the ground and through the air. After the first couple of offensive series, Lewis ended up out-touching Henry 21-to-3 on the day, finishing with a solid rushing stat line of 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. Lewis even took work from Henry near the goal line as he scored on a run from the four-yard line. Based on his Week 1 showing, it looks like Lewis has to be considered the most valuable running back in this Titans backfield. The Titans offensive line will require some monitoring throughout the week, as it may be without both starting tackles this week. Jack Conklin remains out as he recovers from a knee injury, expected back close to Week 4 unless his status rapidly improves. Left tackle Taylor Lewan suffered a concussion in Week 1, so he must move through the protocol in an attempt to make it back this week. If both tackles are out, this offensive line will most certainly be downgraded.

The Texans run defense showed some positive signs in Week 1, but they still finished with coughing up 122 yards on the ground, including 107 rushing yards to the three opposing Patriots running backs. D.J. Reader showed he can be a force on the interior, but it was the linebacker play, most notably that of Dylan Cole and Zach Cunningham, that let the Texans down last week. Safety Kareem Jackson had the best game in run defense amongst defensive backs for the Texans, but he could only do so much with the poor tackling from the Texans linebackers. While the Titans have questions on their offensive line, the interior of that line remains intact and did a decent job later in the game last week. The Texans linebackers will need to improve for this unit to be effective against the run.

Titans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Titans passing offense looks to be in trouble coming into this week due to a slew of injuries impacting some key players. Marcus Mariota was knocked out of the game last week with an apparent arm injury suffered just after the first lightning delay. Mariota took a hit to the arm that sidelined him for just one play, but upon trying to return, he threw two consecutive interceptions on back to back pass attempts before being replaced by Blaine Gabbert for the remainder of the game. Mariota had put together a couple of decent drives prior to the injury, while Blaine Gabbert struggled tremendously in his nearly two quarters of playing time. If Gabbert is forced to suit up as the starter in Week 2, this entire offense receives a very significant downgrade. The truly crushing injury for the Titans was the loss of their top target from the 2017 season, tight end Delanie Walker. Walker suffered a fractured ankle last week, landing him on season-ending injured reserve. Walker’s presence will be truly missed, as he represented 23% (111) of the targets in this Titans passing offense last season. Second-year tight end Jonnu Smith will partially fill this void but looks for a rise in targets to both the wide receivers and Dion Lewis due to Walker’s absence. Corey Davis finished with a career-high 13 targets last week, but he could only haul in less than half of them with six receptions for 62 yards. Davis struggled with tight coverage from the Miami defensive backs, but it was clear he will be a focal point of this Titans passing attack. Dion Lewis looked great through the air last week also as he finished with the second-most targets (8), totaling five receptions for 35 yards. Rishard Matthews should see more action this week as he continues to learn the offense after missing the entire preseason due to injury. The last injury to note for the Titans is left tackle Taylor Lewan, who has been diagnosed with a concussion. If Lewan is unable to suit up, the Titans pass protection will be significantly weakened against a strong Texans pass rush.

Speaking of the Texans pass rush, they looked relatively solid last week as nose tackle D.J. Reader finished with two sacks while J.J. Watt racked up a few pressures later in the second half. With Watt remaining healthy and Reader looking sharp in his season debut, the Texans pass rush could cause matchup problems if the Titans end up without both starting tackles on Sunday. The Texans secondary did look improved from their 2017 campaign despite allowing Tom Brady to pass for 277 yards and three touchdowns. Free-agent addition Tyrann Mathieu looked solid in coverage holding down the middle of the field while both safeties Kareem Jackson and Justin Reid played well. Cornerback Kevin Johnson had a forgettable game to the literal sense, as he played poorly in coverage and ended up being forced from the game due to a nasty-looking blow to the head. Jackson will likely miss significant time, yielding to free agent addition Kayvon Webster as his replacement. If Rishard Matthews can see more snaps this week, he should be able to exploit that matchup against Webster. Corey Davis also has the height and talent advantage over cornerback Jonathan Joseph on the other side. However, if Blaine Gabbert starts for the Titans, the matchup is immediately downgraded.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-2.1)15 (-2.1)16 (-1.6)15 (-2.5)
1Ryan Tannehill6220282302244017.917.915.615.6

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6300)

1@ NE74173417611840015.815.812.013.0
2PROJ-Dodds22332371.51.16370.221.621.621.6 (H=55)21.6 (H=65)
2PROJ-Tremblay20332441.61.16410.222.822.822.8 (H=60)22.8 (H=71)
2PROJ-Bloom19311911.40.97380.319.819.819.8 (H=47)19.8 (H=55)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-7.0)5 (-9.6)6 (-8.0)6 (-10.1)
1Kenyan Drake4614480431806.
1Frank Gore18961000006.

Lamar Miller (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5400)

1@ NE57209802111010.911.911.411.9
2PROJ-Dodds17710.42190.1121413.0 (H=24)14.0 (H=35)
2PROJ-Tremblay18670.42130.1111312.0 (H=21)13.0 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom18760.52120.112.414.413.4 (H=26)14.4 (H=37)

Alfred Blue (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ NE10536100009.
2PROJ-Dodds5190.11603.14.13.6 (H=3)4.1 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay4180.10002.42.42.4 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom5230.20003.53.53.5 (H=3)3.5 (H=4)

Tyler Ervin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ NE7000111201.
2PROJ-Dodds140160121.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay0001600.61.61.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom0001800.81.81.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+10.5)25 (+14.4)28 (+17.9)28 (+21.4)
1Kenny Stills5954106200022.626.624.629.6
1Albert Wilson34433102703.

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $8000)

1@ NE731187801-707.
2PROJ-Dodds7860.614012.619.616.1 (H=29)19.6 (H=43)
2PROJ-Tremblay5740.615011.516.514.0 (H=23)16.5 (H=32)
2PROJ-Bloom8980.7000142218.0 (H=35)22.0 (H=52)

Bruce Ellington (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ NE65843710009.713.711.713.7
2PROJ-Dodds4440.30006.210.28.2 (H=16)10.2 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=19)10.9 (H=32)
2PROJ-Bloom4400.30005.89.87.8 (H=15)9.8 (H=27)

Keke Coutee (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

2PROJ-Dodds1130.10001.92.92.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1130.10001.92.92.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Will Fuller (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5300)

2PROJ-Dodds000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1210.20003.34.33.9 (H=3)4.4 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.1)3 (-8.3)3 (-6.6)3 (-8.5)
1Mike Gesicki21211101.

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2700)

1@ NE635000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2200. (H=3)4.6 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay3310. (H=7)6.7 (H=19)
2PROJ-Bloom170. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ NE37221101.
2PROJ-Dodds1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)

Jordan Thomas (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ NE14212702.
2PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+1.8)21T (+1.8)18T (+1.1) (+0.0)
1Jason Sanders2233999.00.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ NE2222889.00.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+3.3)22T (+3.3)24T (+3.7)24T (+3.7)
1Miami Dolphins2033603001121213.013.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ NE27.0038921200888.08.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.703442.310.800. (H=19)8.8 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.75326210.800. (H=22)9.6 (H=38)

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+5.1)23 (+5.0)24 (+5.1)22 (+4.2)
1Tom Brady7526392773112025.125.122.322.3

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5600)

1@ MIA369161030231504.
2PROJ-Dodds21332241.413170. (H=43)18.1 (H=53)
2PROJ-Tremblay10161070.60.5170. (H=11)8.6 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom17311731.11.22100.113.513.513.5 (H=25)13.5 (H=32)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+4.1)28 (+8.5)27 (+6.6)27 (+8.0)
1James White3651809438111.615.613.615.6
1Rex Burkhead371864031506.

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ MIA491675185350172219.522.0
2PROJ-Dodds11450.24300.29.913.911.9 (H=22)13.9 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay11480.35390.211.716.714.2 (H=30)16.7 (H=52)
2PROJ-Bloom13600.43260.111.614.613.1 (H=26)14.6 (H=41)

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ MIA201026011503.
2PROJ-Dodds13530.42140.19.711.710.7 (H=19)11.7 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay14550.411109109.5 (H=15)10.0 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom12450.41507.48.47.9 (H=11)8.4 (H=15)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-6.7)10 (-9.8)10 (-10.8)10 (-12.8)
1Phillip Dorsett577766100012.619.616.119.6
1Cordarrelle Patterson16116031301.

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ MIA631366200006.
2PROJ-Dodds5620.300081310.5 (H=18)13.0 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay5680.30008.613.611.1 (H=20)13.6 (H=36)
2PROJ-Bloom6640.40008.814.811.8 (H=22)14.8 (H=41)

Rishard Matthews (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ MIA360000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2360.20004.86.85.8 (H=7)6.8 (H=13)
2PROJ-Tremblay1170.10002.33.32.8 (H=1)3.3 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom2210.20003.35.34.3 (H=4)5.3 (H=8)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ MIA58311700001.
2PROJ-Dodds2190.10002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=8)
2PROJ-Tremblay1190.10002.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Taywan Taylor (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3600)

1@ MIA91000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+12.1)30 (+14.9)30 (+11.6)30 (+16.7)
1Rob Gronkowski7587123118.325.319.827.3

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ MIA40311201.
2PROJ-Dodds2230. (H=8)6.1 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay3300. (H=11)7.8 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom3340. (H=10)7.6 (H=21)

Luke Stocker (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ MIA25223703.
2PROJ-Dodds2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay2190. (H=4)4.5 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+1.8)21T (+1.8)18T (+1.1) (+0.0)
1Stephen Gostkowski2233999.00.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ MIA22228811.00.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-1.7)15T (-1.7)14T (-1.3)14T (-1.3)
1New England Patriots2032531100778.08.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2400)

1@ MIA27.0034212001111111.011.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.903612.41.10.600. (H=21)8.7 (H=35)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.253742.11.10.600. (H=19)8.4 (H=33)