Matchup Analysis: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Lions 21, 49ers 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Detroit Lions Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Lions Offense17.0 (-6.9) (24)39 (-74) (32)300 (+62) (8)
49ers Defense24.0 (+0.1) (19)116 (+2) (17)227 (-10) (16)

San Francisco 49ers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
49ers Offense16.0 (-7.9) (25)90 (-23) (24)237 (+0) (15)
Lions Defense48.0 (+24.1) (31)169 (+55) (30)180 (-57) (10)

Lions Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

Right on cue, the Lions rushing offense went back to their old ways as they finished rock bottom of Week 1 with only 39 rushing yards and just 15 rushing attempts. To be fair, it was a tough game script as the Lions were playing from behind for most of the evening and barely called a single run play during the second half. LeGarrette Blount was given the start, but he lost seven yards on his first carry while injuring his knee on his last carry just after halftime. Theo Riddick was the clear passing-down back who did not get much work at all on the ground, but was on the field for over half the snaps as the Lions played catch-up. Kerryon Johnson was worked in on 23 percent of the snaps and had a few solid runs in limited opportunities. The offensive line had a very rough night as they whiffed on quite a few blocks and couldn’t open many running lanes. They actually looked better in run blocking than pass protection, but the overall performance was still below average. With Blount’s health and effectiveness in question, Johnson may see more playing time this week.

The 49ers rushing defense was better than advertised last week despite missing their top impact defensive player in Reuben Foster (suspension). Deforest Buckner was a stalwart for them on the defensive line while linebacker Fred Warner had a very solid season debut with a forced fumble and multiple big stops against the run. This defensive front consistently penetrated the Vikings offensive line and did a great job containing Dalvin Cook as he was held to just 2.5 rushing yards per attempt on 16 carries. Given the success the 49ers had against a subpar Vikings offensive line last week, they can expect a similar matchup in the trenches here as the Lions offensive line played very poorly in Week 1 and grades out as a below average unit.

Lions Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

Matthew Stafford had the most forgettable season debut of his career as he coughed up four interceptions in a rout by the Jets. Stafford was making terrible reads with inaccurate passes for most of that game. It was a miracle that Stafford was not sacked as he was running for his life for most of the night behind very poor offensive line play. He took a couple hits throughout the game, including one early that caused him to hobble for a few plays. Stafford was finally benched in the fourth quarter once the game was out of hand. Golden Tate was the top target for Stafford but hauled in only seven of his 15 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown with a few drops on his resume for the night. Kenny Golladay was right behind Tate in usage with 12 targets as he led the team in receiving yards (114). Golladay saw most of his production early while Tate struggled as he looked in sync with Stafford when the game was actually close. The playing time for Golladay, who entered the season as the clear third option for the Lions, was a big positive as he was on the field for a career-high 65 snaps--more than any other Lions skilled position player. Marvin Jones had a disappointing game despite seeing eight targets and a few deep ball shots.

The 49ers defense had a decent start to the season despite the loss in Minnesota. The defensive line played well with three sacks, 2.5 of which came from tackle DeForest Buckner. Buckner is in a very favorable matchup this week as he should line up opposite left guard Frank Ragnow, who had a really tough time in last week’s game. 49ers rookie linebacker Fred Warner had a spectacular NFL debut last week as he finished tied for the fourth-most tackles of the week with a forced fumble, one pass defended, and one tackle for loss on the quarterback. Warner will be the star of this linebacker group until Reuben Foster returns in Week 3, at which point this could be a very dynamic tandem if Warner can replicate that success. Until Foster returns though, the 49ers will still have a big weakness at linebacker as neither Mark Nzeocha nor Brock Coyle was very effective in pass coverage, with Nzeocha giving up a few big plays to Adam Thielen. The 49ers outside cornerbacks did a decent job in coverage, but slot cornerback K’waun Williams struggled against Adam Thielen who dominated on short routes over the middle of the field. Golden Tate should have a favorable matchup against Williams and the 49ers linebackers on short routes out of the slot this week.

49ers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Lions defense.

The 49ers backfield was split between the combination of Alfred Morris and Matt Breida in Week 1. Morris was the starter, receiving all but three of his carries in the first half before ceding to Breida when the game script flipped to a pass-heavy approach. Morris was effective in the beginning, but he fizzled at the end of a drive near the goal line, rushing four consecutive times from within the five-yard line while failing to gain more than a yard and fumbling to cost the 49ers a scoring opportunity. Morris ended the game with 12 carries compared to 11 for Breida, who was actually the more efficient runner with 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. Morris remains the primary early-down and goal-line back while Breida should see more passing down work. The 49ers offensive line had a couple injuries to note this week as they lost two guards with foot injuries. Starting right guard Mike Person went down with a foot strain, followed by his replacement Josh Garnet promptly injuring his toe just a few plays later. Both are considered week to week and appear likely to miss Week 2, forcing some undesirable shifts on this offensive line, including moving rookie tackle Mike McGlinchey inside to guard. Ranked as an average offensive line by Footballguys offensive line specialist Matt Bitonti to start the season, this unit will definitely fall to the bottom tier for Week 2 if both guards are indeed sidelined.

The Lions rushing defense had a tough time with the Jets running backs, giving up a total of 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the pair of primary Jets running backs. Isaiah Crowell managed to average over 10 yards per rush attempt on the heels of a 62-yard scamper while Bilal Powell was allowed to average right at five yards per carry. The game script made it tough on the Lions though, as they were constantly on the field with short rest thanks to the five turnovers coughed up by their offensive counterparts. The Lions defensive front did have a bright spot via the nice showing from rookie tackle De’Shawn Hand, who played better than expected up front. Their top lineman Ezekiel Ansah also had a solid season debut against the run, but he was forced to exit early with a shoulder injury with his status for Week 2 now in question. It was really the combination of game script and subpar linebacker play that helped doom the Lions to such a poor statistical showing against the run. With the status of Ezekiel Ansah in question and an undermanned linebacker group, even a subpar and equally ailing 49ers offensive line looks to have the advantage here.

49ers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Lions defense.

Jimmy Garoppolo suffered his first loss as a starter last week up against a stout Vikings defense. He completed less than 50% of his passes for 261 yards, one touchdown, and a whopping three interceptions. Poor offensive line plays and consecutive injuries to his starting and backup right guards did not help Garoppolo’s chances at success last week. His receivers also did not help as top option Marquise Goodwin suffered an early injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the game. Goodwin remains day to day with a thigh injury, so keep an eye on his status closer to Sunday as this his absence would be a big blow to this passing offense. Pierre Garcon was routinely waved off the field as he could not get loose from coverage and actually dropped what should have been a touchdown pass. Rookie Dante Pettis was the one bright spot at wide receiver as the rookie hauled in the only receiving touchdown of the game in acrobatic fashion. The top target in the passing game, however, was tight end George Kittle, finishing with nine targets for five receptions and 90 yards. Kittle actually led the league among tight ends in yards after the catch with 66 yards, showing how explosive he can be with the ball in his hands. He could have had a monster fantasy day had Garoppolo not missed a wide-open look to Kittle in the end zone from four yards out.

The Lions suffered a big loss in Week 1, but the 48-point romp cannot all be placed on this defense as the Lions offense really set the tone with five turnovers. The defensive line played relatively well with a couple sacks and constant pressure on the rookie quarterback. The secondary had some highlights as well with cornerback Darius Slay shutting down Robby Anderson for basically the entire game and converted safety Quandre Diggs intercepting the first pass of the game for a touchdown. There were certainly plenty of low moments though as cornerback Nevin Lawson struggled for most of the night while both he and safety Glover Quin were beaten for touchdowns. If Goodwin manages to suit up, he should see a favorable matchup against Lawson while Pierre Garcon looks to have the less favorable matchup against Darius Slay for most snaps.

49ers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.8)21 (+2.8)21 (+3.1)21 (+2.2)
1Kirk Cousins71203624420426022.822.820.420.4

Matthew Stafford (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6100)

1vs NYJ6327462861416014.914.912.012.0
2PROJ-Dodds23352651.60.8260. (H=46)20.1 (H=59)
2PROJ-Tremblay23362781.50.9390.120.520.520.5 (H=48)20.5 (H=61)
2PROJ-Bloom24352381.61280.118.718.718.7 (H=41)18.7 (H=52)

49ers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-6.0)10 (-5.6)7 (-7.5)8 (-7.1)
1Dalvin Cook5716400765509.515.510.514.5
1Latavius Murray141142000004.

Kerryon Johnson (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4200)

1vs NYJ165170332003.
2PROJ-Dodds10350.22160. (H=11)8.9 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay10400.32120798.0 (H=12)9.0 (H=21)
2PROJ-Bloom12400.33190.18.311.39.8 (H=17)11.3 (H=31)

Theo Riddick (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

1vs NYJ414200751503.
2PROJ-Dodds5210.13240. (H=11)8.7 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay6220.24300.17119.0 (H=16)11.0 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom6230.35260.17.312.39.8 (H=19)12.3 (H=38)

LeGarrette Blount (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs NYJ134-300000-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3
2PROJ-Dodds3110.10001.71.71.7 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay3120.10001.81.81.8 (H=1)1.8 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ameer Abdullah (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

2PROJ-Dodds250150121.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

49ers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.8)18T (-0.3)19T (-0.3)19T (+0.7)
1Stefon Diggs616343118011.114.112.614.1
1Adam Thielen68126102000010.

Marvin Jones (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6200)

1vs NYJ62845400005.
2PROJ-Dodds4610.40008.512.510.5 (H=17)12.5 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay5710.40009.514.512.0 (H=21)14.5 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom4580.40008.212.210.2 (H=16)12.2 (H=24)

Golden Tate (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6500)

1vs NYJ5715779100013.920.917.420.9
2PROJ-Dodds5610.30007.912.910.4 (H=16)12.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay6640.40008.814.811.8 (H=20)14.8 (H=32)
2PROJ-Bloom6640.40008.814.811.8 (H=20)14.8 (H=32)

Kenny Golladay (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4800)

1vs NYJ65127114000011.418.414.921.4
2PROJ-Dodds4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=15)10.9 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay5660.400091411.5 (H=24)14.0 (H=40)
2PROJ-Bloom5630.40008.713.711.2 (H=23)13.7 (H=38)

T.J. Jones (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs NYJ1731600000.
2PROJ-Dodds1140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

49ers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.4)24 (+1.2)24 (+1.9)24 (+1.0)
1Kyle Rudolph59211117.

Luke Willson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs NYJ141000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1160. (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
2PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Levine Toilolo (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs NYJ2011700.
2PROJ-Dodds190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

49ers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-1.2)9T (-1.2)12T (-0.9) (+0.0)
1Daniel Carlson1133667.00.0

Matt Prater (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs NYJ1322555.00.0

49ers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30T (+8.3)30T (+8.3)31 (+8.7)31 (+8.7)
1Minnesota Vikings1632733101171718.018.0

Detroit Lions (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2300)

1vs NYJ48.003492110112128.08.0
2PROJ-Dodds25.903852.310.600. (H=16)7.7 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay26.503862.41.10.600. (H=15)7.4 (H=27)

Lions vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-3.2)13 (-3.2)15 (-2.4)13 (-3.3)
1Sam Darnold601621198216-1016.816.814.814.8

Jimmy Garoppolo (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6000)

1@ MIN6615332611326014.714.712.012.0
2PROJ-Dodds24372871.81250.121.621.621.6 (H=56)21.6 (H=68)
2PROJ-Tremblay23372751.81.1240.120.820.820.8 (H=52)20.8 (H=63)
2PROJ-Bloom24372351.61240. (H=41)18.2 (H=50)

Lions vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+11.1)25 (+7.5)29 (+9.6)28 (+10.0)
1Isaiah Crowell24101022000022.
1Bilal Powell241260021506.

Alfred Morris (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3600)

1@ MIN341238000003.
2PROJ-Dodds12580.41508.79.79.2 (H=16)9.7 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay13580.40008.28.28.2 (H=13)8.2 (H=21)
2PROJ-Bloom15640.50009.49.49.4 (H=16)9.4 (H=26)

Matt Breida (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ MIN301146021505.
2PROJ-Dodds11440.32150.18.310.39.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay12500.42120. (H=18)11.2 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom12500.42130.19.311.310.3 (H=18)11.3 (H=27)

Kyle Juszczyk (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ MIN26000215605.
2PROJ-Dodds0002210. (H=4)4.7 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay0002150. (H=3)4.1 (H=7)
2PROJ-Bloom0002240.1354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)

Lions vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+4.3)20 (+2.2)24 (+8.7)22 (+6.2)
1Quincy Enunwa4010663100012.318.315.318.3
1Robby Anderson35114111-909.210.29.710.2

Marquise Goodwin (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ MIN171000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds4580.30007.611.69.6 (H=17)11.6 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay3470.20005.98.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=18)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Pierre Garcon (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ MIN53622100002.
2PROJ-Dodds4490.30006.710.78.7 (H=15)10.7 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay4460.30006.410.48.4 (H=14)10.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom4430.30006.110.18.1 (H=13)10.1 (H=21)

Dante Pettis (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ MIN485261100012.
2PROJ-Dodds3370.30005.58.57.2 (H=13)8.7 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay3380.30005.68.67.3 (H=13)8.8 (H=21)
2PROJ-Bloom3490.30006.79.78.4 (H=17)9.9 (H=26)

Trent Taylor (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ MIN37642800002.
2PROJ-Dodds3340.20004.67.66.2 (H=10)7.7 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay3350.30005.38.36.9 (H=12)8.4 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom4360.30005.49.47.5 (H=14)9.5 (H=25)

Kendrick Bourne (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIN81000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1700000.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Lions vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-2.8)15T (-3.0)14 (-2.8)15T (-3.2)
1Neal Sterling40332702.

George Kittle (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ MIN519590091411.514.0
2PROJ-Dodds4490.47.311.39.3 (H=16)11.3 (H=35)
2PROJ-Tremblay6590.58.914.911.9 (H=26)14.9 (H=56)
2PROJ-Bloom5610.48.513.511.0 (H=22)13.5 (H=47)

Garrett Celek (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ MIN230000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Lions vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30T (+4.8)30T (+4.8)27T (+4.1) (+0.0)
1Jason Myers2266121212.00.0

Robbie Gould (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ MIN3311101011.00.0

Lions vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+7.3)28T (+7.3)32 (+16.7)32 (+16.7)
1New York Jets1733905002161626.026.0

San Francisco 49ers (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ MIN24.0034330100556.06.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.103702.30.80.600. (H=20)8.2 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay21.003732.410.700. (H=25)9.2 (H=33)