Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 20, Redskins 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense23.0 (-0.9) (16)75 (-38) (26)305 (+67) (6)
Redskins Defense6.0 (-17.9) (2)68 (-45) (4)145 (-92) (4)

Washington Redskins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Redskins Offense24.0 (+0.1) (15)182 (+68) (1)247 (+9) (13)
Colts Defense34.0 (+10.1) (27)101 (-12) (12)229 (-8) (17)

Colts Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

The Colts may get Marlon Mack back this week as he was limited in practice on Wednesday, but in perhaps bigger injury news for the Colts, they will likely get Anthony Castonzo back which will be a significant improvement to get their left tackle back from injury. Jordan Wilkins and the rushing game struggled last week as they ran for just 75 yards on 3.4 yards per carry against a very good Bengals run defense. The Colts run defense has been decimated with injuries so far this season and in the preseason and combining this with just an overall lack of experience, it is no surprise that it has gotten off to a slow start this year.

The Colts are going up against a Redskins defense which should be much improved along the defensive line. The Redskins were a very good defensive line before injuries plagued them in the second half of the year to Matt Ioannidis and Jonathan Allen. The good news for the Redskins is that both of these players are back and makeup what should be a very formidable defensive end group along with Da'Ron Payne the first-round rookie out of Alabama. This will allow linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Zach Brown to make more plays than they were able to last season and lead to a much more promising run defense than what we saw a season ago. In Week 1, the Redskins largely held David Johnson in check and some of this was due to the game script, but he had just 37 yards on 9 carries and was really not able to get much going.

Colts Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

The Colts welcomed Andrew Luck back after missing all of 2017, and while Luck wasn't dominant in this game, he was incredibly solid completing 73% of his passes and throwing for 319 yards and 2 touchdowns. Getting Anthony Castanzo back should only help Luck with more additional time in the pocket this week assuming Castanzo is ready to go. While the Colts receiving group is not the most talented, Luck has found consistent targets in Ryan Grant, Jack Doyle, and Eric Ebron to go alongside T.Y. Hilton that should make this passing game formidable each wee.

The Redskins secondary continues to prove that it is a very good one led by Josh Norman. The Redskins stifled the Cardinals last week holding them to just 152 yards passing and free agent signee Quinton Dunbar only added to what is already an elite unit. The Redskins were 9th in passing yards allowed last season and look to be an improving unit as between the addition of Dunbar and the cohesion with two returning safeties which is always typically a positive impact to a passing game in Montae Nicholson and D.J. Swearinger. They should also see improvement due to health on the defensive line and Da'ron Payne this should prevent the pressure generated by the defense.

Redskins Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Redskins went with a run-heavy offense last week in a comfortable win against the Cardinals. The Redskins did what we saw the Cardinals do with Adrian Peterson and gave him a heavy dosage of carries as Peterson carried the ball 26 times and while he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry was effective in rushing for 96 yards and keeping the team on the field. Chris Thompson was a nice complimentary back to Peterson as he had 65 yards on just five carries and the best part about that was that his longest carry was 16 yards and his shortest carry was for seven yards which was his only carry that was less than ten yards. This offensive line is a much-improved unit after dealing with the injuries that they saw in 2017 losing both Pro Bowl quality lineman in Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff, this looks like a running game that will continue throughout the season to be one of the improved units of 2018.

The Colts rushing defense got off to an incredibly poor start this past week compared to 2017. Even though in 2017, they were 26th in terms of yards allowed per game at 120 yards per game, this was largely due to the offense struggling and falling behind as the yards per carry number in 2017 was solid at 3.9 yards per carry which was 9th best. Last week against the Bengals the Colts allowed 5.2 yards per carry and 93 yards on just 18 carries. The biggest issue for the Colts is that they have an undrafted rookie Skai Moore as their third linebacker who really struggled in Week 1. This could be a big problem for the Colts this upcoming week going against veteran Adrian Peterson.

Redskins Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Redskins replacement of Alex Smith for Kirk Cousins appears to be going smoothly as Jay Gruden has designed this offense to play to Alex Smith strengths which is throwing to tight ends and running backs. Of Smith’s 255 yards passing, 181 yards went to either running backs or tight ends on just 51% of the targets that Smith threw. While we are unable to expect Adrian Peterson to continue to have 70 yards receiving each week, expect Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed to continue to be a major focal point of this offense as long as they remain on the field as both have a history of injuries.

The Colts secondary is simply an undertalented unit. A.J. Green had a tremendous game last week going up against Quincy Wilson as he had 92 yards and a touchdown. Wilson who was a second-round pick in 2017 still has not developed as quickly as the Colts would have liked as they expected him to step into a big role this season in his second-year. The Colts also struggled against the running back position as Joe Mixon had a tremendous game last week with 5 receptions for 54 yards on just 7 targets. This could lead to plenty of opportunity for Chris Thompson once again for the Redskins as they look to exploit the underskilled Colts linebackers in rookies Skai Moore, Darius Leonard and second-year fifth-round draft pick Anthony Walker who recovering from a groin injury.

Redskins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-12.6)3 (-12.7)1 (-13.4)2 (-13.3)
1Sam Bradford532034153012707.

Andrew Luck (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6200)

1vs CIN8239533192117023.723.720.523.5
2PROJ-Dodds23352551.50.93170.220.820.820.8 (H=51)20.8 (H=61)
2PROJ-Tremblay22352631.40.82120.119.719.719.7 (H=46)19.7 (H=56)
2PROJ-Bloom26412261.412110.117.617.617.6 (H=38)17.6 (H=46)

Redskins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.2)20 (+1.2)17 (-0.2)19 (+0.7)
1David Johnson3693719530012.717.715.217.7
1Chase Edmonds174240442404.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

2PROJ-Dodds9390.22150. (H=12)9.2 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay6280.12180. (H=9)7.8 (H=15)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs CIN4614400332106.
2PROJ-Dodds10380.31806.47.46.9 (H=9)7.4 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay11490.31807.58.58.0 (H=12)8.5 (H=18)
2PROJ-Bloom13370.32150798.0 (H=12)9.0 (H=20)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs CIN375190973305.212.28.712.2
2PROJ-Dodds4170.13200. (H=9)8.0 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay4180.13230. (H=10)8.4 (H=19)
2PROJ-Bloom4150.14210. (H=10)8.9 (H=21)

Christine Michael (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs CIN329000000.
2PROJ-Dodds2700000.70.70.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay2700000.70.70.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom1400000.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)

Redskins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-14.3)7 (-18.4)6 (-16.9)6 (-20.4)
1Larry Fitzgerald521077600007.614.611.114.6
1Christian Kirk4521400000.

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6700)

1vs CIN8011546100010.615.613.115.6
2PROJ-Dodds5690.40009.314.311.8 (H=19)14.3 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay5750.30009.314.311.8 (H=19)14.3 (H=29)
2PROJ-Bloom6650.50009.515.512.5 (H=22)15.5 (H=34)

Ryan Grant (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4300)

1vs CIN65985900005.913.99.913.9
2PROJ-Dodds3350.20004.77.76.2 (H=9)7.7 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay3470.30006.59.58.0 (H=14)9.5 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom5360.20004.89.87.3 (H=12)9.8 (H=24)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs CIN47331800001.
2PROJ-Dodds1180.10002.43.43.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay1140.1000232.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom11100001.12.11.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Redskins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.3)6 (-5.5)6 (-4.8)6 (-5.7)
1Ricky Seals-Jones49631901.

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4000)

1vs CIN771076006137.512.0
2PROJ-Dodds4370. (H=11)9.5 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay4410. (H=12)9.9 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom5380.35.610.68.1 (H=13)10.6 (H=29)

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs CIN375451111.
2PROJ-Dodds3350. (H=8)7.7 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay3280.2475.5 (H=6)7.0 (H=16)
2PROJ-Bloom3400. (H=11)8.8 (H=24)

Erik Swoope (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs CIN5111301.
2PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay0400.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Redskins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-7.2)1T (-7.2)1T (-7.9) (+0.0)
1Phil Dawson0000000.00.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs CIN3422111113.00.0

Redskins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-3.7)6T (-3.7)6T (-4.3)6T (-4.3)
1Arizona Cardinals2442930100555.05.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2300)

1vs CIN34.0033021100665.05.0
2PROJ-Dodds26.0037520.60.500. (H=11)5.8 (H=18)
2PROJ-Tremblay25.503622.10.80.600. (H=15)7.1 (H=25)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.0)19 (-0.1)18 (+0.3)18 (-0.6)
1Andy Dalton5521282432128020.020.017.517.5

Alex Smith (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6000)

1@ ARI79213025520814022.222.219.619.6
2PROJ-Dodds23342601.70.54220. (H=60)22.1 (H=71)
2PROJ-Tremblay22332481.60.85250. (H=55)21.1 (H=65)
2PROJ-Bloom202922920.54190.121.521.521.5 (H=57)21.5 (H=67)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.1)21 (+2.5)21 (+2.6)21 (+2.0)
1Joe Mixon42179517554020.925.923.425.9
1Giovani Bernard141-20111100.

Adrian Peterson (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5500)

1@ ARI42269613270022.624.621.623.6
2PROJ-Dodds17630.62160. (H=25)14.1 (H=35)
2PROJ-Tremblay18630.62190.112.414.413.4 (H=26)14.4 (H=36)
2PROJ-Bloom21850.5190.1131413.5 (H=27)14.0 (H=35)

Chris Thompson (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5900)

1@ ARI3356507663118.824.821.824.8
2PROJ-Dodds4220.15440.28.413.410.9 (H=20)13.4 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay3160.16490.28.314.311.3 (H=21)14.3 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom4260.15470.39.714.712.2 (H=24)14.7 (H=35)

Rob Kelley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ ARI837000000.
2PROJ-Dodds270.10001.31.31.3 (H=0)1.3 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay290.10001.51.51.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.8)18T (-0.3)18 (-1.8)15 (-3.3)
1A.J. Green528692100015.
1John Ross3621310006.

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4900)

1@ ARI49433200003.
2PROJ-Dodds4520.30007119.1 (H=15)11.1 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay4520.30007119.1 (H=15)11.1 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom4430.40006.710.78.8 (H=14)10.8 (H=25)

Paul Richardson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ ARI61642200002.
2PROJ-Dodds3400.30005.88.87.3 (H=10)8.8 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay3460.30006.49.47.9 (H=12)9.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom3450.30006.39.37.8 (H=12)9.3 (H=22)

Josh Doctson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ ARI70311100001.
2PROJ-Dodds2280.2000465.0 (H=5)6.0 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay2270.20003.95.94.9 (H=5)5.9 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom2250.30004.36.35.3 (H=6)6.3 (H=12)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (-0.5)21 (+0.3)21T (+0.0)21 (+0.1)
1Tyler Eifert22334404.

Jordan Reed (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ ARI415448110.814.812.814.8
2PROJ-Dodds4490.47.311.39.3 (H=15)11.3 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay4450.46.910.98.9 (H=14)10.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Bloom4500.581210.0 (H=17)12.0 (H=29)

Vernon Davis (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ ARI4711900.
2PROJ-Dodds2230. (H=4)4.9 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.8)25T (+2.8)23T (+3.1) (+0.0)
1Randy Bullock2244101011.00.0

Dustin Hopkins (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ ARI1133666.00.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+9.3)32 (+9.3)21T (+2.7)21T (+2.7)
1Cincinnati Bengals2338021101181812.012.0

Washington Redskins (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2700)

1@ ARI6.00213211006613.013.0
2PROJ-Dodds20.303552.40.90.700. (H=25)9.2 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.003682.10.80.700. (H=22)8.7 (H=31)