Matchup Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Ravens 20, Chargers 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense24.4 (+0.9) (13)142 (+27) (2)228 (-12) (20)
Chargers Defense21.3 (-2.2) (9)104 (-10) (9)225 (-14) (8)

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chargers Offense28.2 (+4.8) (4)122 (+7) (12)270 (+30) (8)
Ravens Defense18.1 (-5.4) (1)88 (-27) (3)203 (-37) (3)

Ravens Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Lamar Jackson has likely (not definitely) locked down the final two weeks in the starter role, and it certainly hasn’t been due to his arm. Rather, he’s averaged a rushing line of 85 yards on 17 rushes over his 5 starts, heading a college-style Baltimore run game that’s come a field goal shy of a 5-0 record. Jackson and fellow rookie Gus Edwards (averaging 19 for 97) have simply ground down all comers - it’s been a remarkably weak schedule, but an impressive stretch nonetheless. Change-of-pace back Kenneth Dixon has excelled in his own right, posting 4.7 yards per rush and scoring twice in relief. Running behind an elite line that’s anchored by still-dominant guard Marshal Yanda, Edwards projects just fine in his first rough matchup as the starter. He’s showcased good power as a north-south hammer and meshes with the power-blocking scheme the Ravens love. Jackson’s high-volume role looks secure as long as he starts, though Joe Flacco’s health of course muddies the water. The diversity and efficiency of this whole unit are strong, but it’s hard to pin it down with such uncertainty at quarterback, of all spots.

The Chargers run defense has been an up-and-down unit throughout 2018, mixing dominant performances with truly shaky ones. In general, it’s been a tough matchup from a fantasy perspective. They’ve allowed only 4 opposing backs to top 65 yards, and there’s no shame in giving up big days to Todd Gurley and Joe Mixon. But they’ve definitely struggled, especially with quicker backs, up and down the schedule. Injuries have played a part, with top linebacker Denzel Perryman and key down lineman Corey Liuget on injured reserve. Joey Bosa’s return has brought a solid edge presence, but this is a front seven built more to defend the pass than the run. The remaining linebackers are relatively light up the middle and susceptible to explosive backs with wide lanes. The Ravens’ down-blocking power attack could easily sweep this group aside.

Ravens Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Joe Flacco has been removed from the Ravens’ injury report, but even with the Ravens pushing for the playoffs, he won’t open Week 16 under center. Lamar Jackson has brought such a transformative element to this offense that he’s likely locked himself in, despite showing almost nothing as a passer. Jackson is exceptionally raw, even for a rookie, struggling to create anything of note through the air. Through 5 starts he’s posted just 6.6 yards per attempt, and he’s topped 150 in a game just once, with a paltry 4 touchdowns along the way. Needless to say, the Baltimore receivers have lost all of their fantasy luster in the new run-dominant scheme. John Brown and Michael Crabtree have combined for just 175 yards over these last 5 games, with Willie Snead’s 190 leading the team. Unless Jackson faceplants and Flacco steps in, there isn’t a usable fantasy piece in this attack. The Baltimore offense is now as run-oriented as they come, and Jackson looks miles from pass-game productivity anyway.

Even with injuries swirling throughout the year, the Chargers continue to field one of football’s most impressive pass defenses. There’s been a ton of personnel turnover, but they’re still giving up the league’s eighth-fewest raw yards and ninth-fewest per play, and it is an improving unit as no opposing passer has managed 300 yards since Week 3. With top cornerback Casey Hayward often shadowing and second-year man Desmond King impressing in the slot, wideouts are producing very little downfield. But perhaps their best work has come against tight ends; they’ve come up big against the likes of Jared Cook and Travis Kelce, who’ve totaled just 139 yards over 4 meetings. Playmaking rookie safety Derwin James (12 pass breakups and 3 interceptions) adds yet another layer to this often-dominant group, and it’s hard to see where raw Baltimore rookie Lamar Jackson can expect to go with the ball Sunday.

Chargers Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Melvin Gordon looks likely to return from his three-game absence, though his immediate workload is an unknown. Gordon has taken 15 carries or more in 8 of his 9 full games, but this is an exceptionally deep backfield, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his usage relaxed off the bat. Justin Jackson (4.6) should see some volume this week as Austin Ekeler looks like he will miss this week. The duo will continue to run behind one of football’s best run-blocking lines, anchored by center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Russell Okung. It’s not easy to project the usage yet, but it’s safe to expect dynamism, with Gordon boasting the best rushing ceiling. Maligned for 3 years for his 3.8 average, Gordon has consistently broken off chunk runs which have led to a 5.2 average this season, and he’s kept up his penchant for huge touchdown production (9 in 9.5 games). If he does take the lion’s share of Week 16 snaps, he’ll get plenty of opportunities to poke holes in the Ravens’ stout front.

The Baltimore run defense, impenetrable for most of the year, has looked human and almost vulnerable over the last two weeks. They’ve allowed back-to-back efficient ground days to Spencer Ware (15 carries for 75 yards) and Peyton Barber (19 for 85 and 1 touchdown), just the third and fourth backs to top 65 in this matchup. On most weeks, down linemen Brandon Williams and Brent Urban anchor a stout, punishing group that’s hard to clear from the middle. Linebacker C.J. Mosley does it all on the inside; he’s not a blazing athlete, but a sure tackler who does fine cleanup work behind them. They’re clearly not unbeatable, but typically work through double-teams and power running better than they did last Sunday. The Chargers’ much-improved line poses a challenge, but their rushing floor is low. This is a deep, talented, and often neutralizing unit.

Chargers Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Here in his age-37 season, Philip Rivers continues to push hard for his first league MVP award. The ageless Rivers is completing 69% of his throws, sitting neck-and-neck with Patrick Mahomes atop the league by most efficiency measures. He’s averaging a solid 282 yards per game, and he’s thrown multiple scores in 13 of 14 outings. Rivers is loaded with playmakers in this offense, and in last week’s wild matchup with Kansas City, they stepped in nicely following Keenan Allen’s early injury. Mike and Tyrell Williams turned 21 targets into 147 yards, and Mike found the end zone twice, his eighth and ninth touchdowns on the year. The duo hasn’t produced consistently, but with Allen looking like a game-time decision, they may be tasked with most of the heavy lifting against Baltimore’s suffocating pass defense. Mike served as the banged-up Chargers’ bell cow player in Week 15, and he’s shown a serious playmaking knack in his second season.

Baltimore’s pass defense remains a true shutdown unit. On the strength of a dominant pass rush and suffocating coverage unit, they’re giving up the league’s fewest net yards per attempt, and only 2 opposing passers have managed 275 yards. Even 2018 phenom Patrick Mahomes had to claw for his production in Week 14. The talented secondary has allowed back-to-back 100-yard receivers - their first 2 of the year - over the last 2 weeks, but almost nothing else in the process. They shut down Travis Kelce over the second half of Week 14, then held Buccaneers not named Mike Evans to just 36 combined yards last Sunday. Simply put, there aren’t many snap-to-snap weaknesses here. Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr have both been strong in outside coverage, while the flats have been almost impenetrable - no team has allowed fewer receiving yards to running backs. Philip Rivers is enjoying his most efficient season in years, but will likely have his Week 16 capabilities scaled back by this unit, which has been as consistently dominant as any.

Chargers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.3)7T (-2.3)7 (-1.9)5 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.9)7 (-2.9)9 (-2.3)8 (-3.0)
12Josh Rosen471219105112-
13Ben Roethlisberger6829452812100021.
14Jeff Driskel67182717010212013.713.712.012.0
15Patrick Mahomes6024342432023020.520.518.018.0

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $6000)

13@ ATL661221125001775119.819.816.517.5
14@ KC691324147201371022.522.519.020.0
15vs TB771423131101895020.120.116.717.7
16PROJ-Dodds152616810.813640.319.819.819.819.8 (H=58)
16PROJ-Tremblay172818310.814660.320.820.820.820.8 (H=63)
16PROJ-Bloom14221470.90.814690.419.419.419.419.4 (H=56)

Joe Flacco (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $4600)

16PROJ-Dodds23190.10.10001. (H=0)
16PROJ-Tremblay34270.10.10001. (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom00000000000.00.0 (H=0)

Chargers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.1)24 (+2.0)22 (+1.6)23 (+1.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.5)26 (+4.0)28 (+4.0)25 (+4.1)
12David Johnson3717630321607.
12T.J. Logan200011500.
13James Conner49156024314019.422.420.922.4
13Jaylen Samuels17250332018.511.510.011.5
14Joe Mixon472611116527019.824.822.327.8
14Giovani Bernard25370221302.
15Damien Williams44104926674024.330.327.330.3
15Darrel Williams152130221919.

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $5000)

13@ ATL412182000008.
14@ KC311667000006.
15vs TB33191041000016.416.416.419.4
16PROJ-Dodds18750.30009. (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay15630.30008. (H=14)
16PROJ-Bloom14590.40008. (H=15)

Kenneth Dixon (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $4400)

13@ ATL17837011604.
14@ KC23859111210141514.515.0
15vs TB40114801120565.56.0
16PROJ-Dodds7340.211105. (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay7290.21604. (H=9)
16PROJ-Bloom9410.2180. (H=15)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ ATL273130754205.510.58.010.5
14@ KC1921031100.
16PROJ-Dodds000000000.00.0 (H=0)
16PROJ-Tremblay1503210. (H=15)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.00.0 (H=0)

Chargers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.8)10T (-4.2)8 (-3.1)8 (-4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.6)10 (-3.5)10 (-3.1)12 (-3.5)
12Larry Fitzgerald43223010009.
12Christian Kirk43644100004.
13Antonio Brown671310154100021.431.426.434.4
13JuJu Smith-Schuster60964900004.910.97.910.9
14John Ross60421110007.
14Tyler Boyd64635200005.
15Demarcus Robinson3632710006.
15Tyreek Hill53744603-504.

John Brown (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $4000)

13@ ATL434000000000.00.0
14@ KC50622310008.310.39.310.3
15vs TB4831900000.
16PROJ-Dodds2360.30005. (H=16)
16PROJ-Tremblay3460.20105. (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom2270.20003. (H=10)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $4300)

13@ ATL6631800000.
14@ KC51756100006.111.18.611.1
15vs TB59655800005.810.88.310.8
16PROJ-Dodds3390.20005. (H=17)
16PROJ-Tremblay4420.20005. (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom3360.10004. (H=14)

Michael Crabtree (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3800)

13@ ATL35433600003.
14@ KC51433100003.
15vs TB451000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds3320.20004. (H=16)
16PROJ-Tremblay3330.20004. (H=17)
16PROJ-Bloom3320.20004. (H=16)

Chris Moore (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ ATL51112100002.
14@ KC232000000000.00.0
15vs TB2611511-50676.57.0
16PROJ-Dodds1110.10001. (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay1130.10202. (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.10.1 (H=0)

Chargers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.5)14 (-1.6)13 (-1.5)14 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.3)6 (-3.6)6 (-3.4)6 (-3.7)
12Ricky Seals-Jones1921500.
13Vance McDonald44742802.
14C.J. Uzomah58333703.
15Travis Kelce60976106.113.19.613.1

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3200)

13@ ATL32334704.
14@ KC252000000.00.0
15vs TB29423103.
16PROJ-Dodds2200. (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay2240.1354.05.0 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom1150. (H=4)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ ATL210000000.00.0
14@ KC180000000.00.0
15vs TB3033200253.55.0
16PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=5)
16PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom2210. (H=11)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ ATL5021700.
14@ KC390000000.00.0
15vs TB220000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1700. (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay1700. (H=2)
16PROJ-Bloom000000.00.0 (H=0)

Maxx Williams (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2600)

13@ ATL210000000.00.0
14@ KC2211101787.58.0
15vs TB4321600.
16PROJ-Dodds1700. (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay1600. (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom180. (H=3)

Chargers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.9)11T (-0.9)13T (-1.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.9)11 (-0.9)13T (-0.9) (+0.0)
12Phil Dawson1211444.04.0
13Chris Boswell1134667.07.0
14Randy Bullock33009911.011.0
15Harrison Butker0044444.04.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ ATL4422141417.017.0
14@ KC1133666.06.0
15vs TB2222888.08.0

Chargers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.7)10T (-1.7)6 (-2.3)6 (-2.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.3)10 (-1.3)4 (-3.8)4 (-3.8)
12Arizona Cardinals4541440100662.02.0
13Pittsburgh Steelers3337120000221.01.0
14Cincinnati Bengals2628820000222.02.0
15Kansas City Chiefs2940752000998.08.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2400)

13@ ATL16.0013130101171715.015.0
14@ KC27.0044131000555.05.0
15vs TB12.0024111000337.07.0
16PROJ-Dodds24.903592.10.80.600. (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay24.503632.10.90.600. (H=29)

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.0)4 (-3.0)4 (-2.7)3 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.5)5 (-4.5)4 (-5.1)4 (-4.6)
12Derek Carr5616341941000013.713.79.810.8
13Matt Ryan5316261311024011.
14Patrick Mahomes863553377212-3025.625.621.824.8
15Jameis Winston501325157012006.

Philip Rivers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $6200)

13@ PIT63263629920000232324.024.0
14vs CIN5719292201027015.715.713.513.5
15@ KC7426383132200021.721.720.523.5
16PROJ-Dodds21342711.80.711020. (H=58)
16PROJ-Tremblay21332561.60.922018.518.518.518.5 (H=50)
16PROJ-Bloom223226120.7110. (H=63)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-5.5)2 (-6.3)6T (-5.6)2 (-6.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.5)7T (-3.5)6T (-3.3)7 (-4.1)
12Doug Martin28115114321013.216.214.716.2
12DeAndre Washington838011901.
13Ito Smith24722011002.
13Tevin Coleman2968031301.
14Damien Williams4381415416115.
14Spencer Ware41157505554012.917.915.417.9
15Peyton Barber3219851224014.916.915.916.9
15Jacquizz Rodgers1300011100.

Melvin Gordon (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $8200)

16PROJ-Dodds16640.64400. (H=40)
16PROJ-Tremblay14630.64320.214.318.316.318.3 (H=37)
16PROJ-Bloom14550.54450.314.818.816.818.8 (H=39)

Justin Jackson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $5400)

13@ PIT1486311119014.215.214.715.2
14vs CIN217120222303.
15@ KC56165814327014.517.516.017.5
16PROJ-Dodds290.10001. (H=0)
16PROJ-Tremblay3130.10202. (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.00.0 (H=0)

Austin Ekeler (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $5600)

13@ PIT4913210852204.
14vs CIN39156615228015.417.416.417.4
16PROJ-Dodds000000000.00.0 (H=0)
16PROJ-Tremblay3130.13250.1586.58.0 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom6210.20003. (H=2)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.0)4 (-6.6)4 (-5.8)4 (-7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-7.8)5 (-9.7)4 (-8.7)6 (-8.9)
12Seth Roberts393254011106.
12Marcell Ateman471031600001.
13Mohamed Sanu44433700003.
13Calvin Ridley34532200002.
14Tyreek Hill65148139016014.522.518.525.5
14Demarcus Robinson56754200004.
15Mike Evans4594121000012.
15Adam Humphries29642300002.

Keenan Allen (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $7700)

13@ PIT581914148100020.834.829.839.8
14vs CIN549578110013.818.816.318.8
15@ KC170000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds5680.40009.214.211.714.2 (H=25)
16PROJ-Tremblay4540.31407.611.69.611.6 (H=18)
16PROJ-Bloom6630.60009.915.912.915.9 (H=31)

Mike Williams (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $6100)

13@ PIT34335200005.
14vs CIN29634500004.
15@ KC6697762119127.534.533.036.5
16PROJ-Dodds3490.50007.910.99.410.9 (H=20)
16PROJ-Tremblay3490.40007.310.38.810.3 (H=18)
16PROJ-Bloom4560.50008.612.610.612.6 (H=26)

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $5400)

13@ PIT50211400001.
14vs CIN48331400001.
15@ KC651267100007.
16PROJ-Dodds3350.30005. (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay3490.30206. (H=19)
16PROJ-Bloom3410.30005. (H=16)

Travis Benjamin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3400)

13@ PIT282244111010.512.511.512.5
14vs CIN20111100001.
15@ KC44325701806.
16PROJ-Dodds1160.10002. (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay1120.1020232.53.0 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom1140.1000232.53.0 (H=3)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.3)21 (+1.9)21T (+1.5)20 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.4)27 (+3.9)26 (+3.7)26 (+3.8)
12Jared Cook32523219.
13Austin Hooper385544110.415.412.915.4
14Travis Kelce859777113.720.717.220.7
15Cameron Brate4121900.

Antonio Gates (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3700)

13@ PIT241000002.02.0
14vs CIN23221901.
15@ KC42545405.
16PROJ-Dodds2220. (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay2240. (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom3350. (H=18)

Virgil Green (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ PIT410000000.00.0
14vs CIN400000000.00.0
15@ KC4332900.
16PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=5)
16PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom1700. (H=2)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-1.5)2 (-1.5)13T (-1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-0.7)15T (-0.7)13 (-0.9) (+0.0)
12Daniel Carlson1122556.06.0
13Matt Bryant1111445.05.0
14Harrison Butker2433999.09.0
15Cairo Santos2200666.06.0

Mike Badgley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ PIT1222555.05.0
14vs CIN4422141417.017.0
15@ KC0033333.03.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-1.0)8T (-1.0)14T (-1.2)14T (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.0)24 (+2.0)14T (-0.3)14T (-0.3)
12Oakland Raiders3441612000554.04.0
13Atlanta Falcons2636620101161611.011.0
14Kansas City Chiefs2432130100555.05.0
15Tampa Bay Buccaneers2037020200667.07.0

Los Angeles Chargers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ PIT30.0033611001338.08.0
14vs CIN21.0029530000333.03.0
15@ KC28.0029420000221.01.0
16PROJ-Dodds20.503602.31.10.700. (H=39)
16PROJ-Tremblay20.003782.110.800. (H=38)