Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chiefs 28, Seahawks 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense35.6 (+12.2) (1)114 (+0) (16)313 (+73) (2)
Seahawks Defense20.9 (-2.6) (8)112 (-2) (15)247 (+7) (20)

Seattle Seahawks Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Seahawks Offense25.9 (+2.5) (9)155 (+40) (1)195 (-44) (27)
Chiefs Defense27.1 (+3.7) (28)127 (+12) (26)282 (+42) (32)

Chiefs Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

With Kareem Hunt now out of the picture and Spencer Ware sidelined with multiple injuries last week, this backfield was in the hands of Damien Williams. Spencer Ware may be on track to return this week, but if for any reason he is not 100 percent, Damien Williams has proven to be a more than capable backup as he looked impressive last week and now has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games. The Chiefs offensive line continues to play well despite being without their starting left guard Cameron Erving for the past game and a half. Replacement Jeff Allen has played very well while their tackles Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher continue to anchor this unit that has blocked well regardless of who is running behind them. The big story will continue to be Spencer Ware’s status, which will require monitoring closely as he should be the leader in this backfield if near 100 percent with Damien Williams likely to remain involved at a lower snap count.

The Seahawks have buckled down against the run in recent weeks, but with two of those games against a banged up 49ers backfield, it is tough to put much stock in those performances. Their run defense has been up and down all season but typically has struggled when facing a competent offensive team. The Chiefs certainly tick the box in that category as the best offense in football with a strong running game regardless of who is in the backfield. The Seahawks have the elite presence of Bobby Wagner continuing to dominate the middle of the field, but they are paper thin outside of Wagner at linebacker while also struggling in run defense on the edge of their defensive line. Linebacker K.J. Wright has a chance to play this week according to reports early in the week, so keep an eye on his status as a return to the field by Wright will be a significant bump to this otherwise mediocre, at best, run defense.

Chiefs Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

Patrick Mahomes had one of his worst fantasy games of the season last week with just 243 passing yards and two touchdowns against the tough Chargers defense. Mahomes elevated expectations all season long, and for the most part, he has lived up to those lofty projections with a spectacular touchdown-laden season. Travis Kelce continues to be a consistent focal point of Mahomes as he has seen the most consistent target volume of any player on the Chiefs this season with at least nine targets in six of his last seven games along with at least one red zone look in all but one game this season. Kelce was held to a mediocre game last week as he missed out on the end zone for just the second time in his last seven games, but he will remain a go-to option going forward. Tyreek Hill was banged up going into last week, and while he did not appear hampered by the ankle injury, he had a very tough outing that included a dropped long ball which would have been a touchdown. Hill has now struggled in two of his last three games with no touchdowns before the Week 12 bye, but he will have had 10 days to rest and should be in a decent spot to bounce back this week.

The Seahawks defense finished in disappointing fashion last week with a litany of mistakes costing them the game against the 49ers. Last week marked the second time this defense has not looked sharp against a very average San Francisco offense as they allowed nearly 700 passing yards to the 49ers alone in recent weeks. The Chiefs offense will be the toughest test this defense has faced all season as the Seattle secondary has no elite playmakers to help stop the likes of Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. Tight ends haven’t had a ton of success against this defense as Bradley McDougald has been one of the top safeties when covering tight ends, giving up just over half a yard of separation per route covered. However, the only tight end he has covered anywhere near the skill level of Kelce has been George Kittle, who amassed 105 yards from nine receptions in his two outings against McDougald and company. These Seahawks cornerbacks, particularly on the outside, have struggled in recent weeks as an opposing team’s top outside receiver has averaged 107.5 receiving yards per game over the last six weeks with at least 76 yards in each of those games. This should be music to the ears of Tyreek Hill as he tries to bounce back from a couple disappointing games from the last three weeks.

Seahawks Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Seahawks backfield continues to be led by Chris Carson, who has now seen 22 carries in back-to-back weeks and is averaging 18 carries per game since returning from injury in Week 11. Carson also has four touchdowns and has surpassed 80 rushing yards three times in that five-game span. Mike Davis was minimally involved last week as Rashaad Penny was sidelined with a knee injury. Penny may return this week, so keep an eye on the practice reports--but even if he is back on the field, keep expectations to a minimum with Carson acting as the clear workhorse for this Seahawks backfield. The offensive line continued to play well despite another game without their starting right guard, and they should be expected to continue as a top-tier run-blocking unit that has supported the league’s top rushing offense on a yards per game basis.

The Chiefs continue to hover near the bottom of the league in run defense, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game, tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns, and the league’s most rushing yards per attempt. They have been consistently terrible against running backs all season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position whether measuring over their first seven or last seven games. A running back has scored a rushing touchdown against the Chiefs in all but four games as this defensive front seven is struggling both inside and outside of the red zone. While the Chiefs have dominant edge defenders and Chris Jones having a career year on the interior, they simply are not playing well in run defense while their linebackers and safeties have been a glaring weakness all season long. The Seahawks offensive line has blocked very well this season, and Seattle will likely game plan to run early and often to control the pace of this game while keeping the ball away from the Chiefs offense. With consistent volume on his side, Carson has every reason to be productive this week.

Seahawks Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Russell Wilson got back on track last week with another multi-touchdown game as he completed just over 74 percent of his passes for 237 yards--his highest yardage mark in three weeks. It is tough to expect much from Wilson given the run-heavy style of this Seattle offense, but he has shown both accuracy and playmaking ability when needed this season as he is taking care of the ball and continuing to find the end zone with multiple passing touchdowns in all but two of his 14 games. Tyler Lockett has been his favorite target, but Lockett was held out of the end zone in back to back games for the first time all season as his fantasy floor was on full display last week with only 45 receiving yards from two receptions. It was Doug Baldwin’s turn to shine for the first time this season as he found the end zone twice while leading the team in receiving yards for his best game of the season. Baldwin appeared to be healthy after missing the previous week with a hip injury, but he and any other receiver in this run-first offense will be tough to trust going forward given the inconsistent passing volume.

The Chiefs, hampered by poor secondary and a pass-heavy opposing game script, have struggled in pass defense the entire season. They have allowed the league’s most passing yards per game while quarterbacks and tight ends alike have scored the second-most fantasy points per game (PPR) when facing the Chiefs. Wide receivers, while scoring an average amount of fantasy points against the Chiefs due to fewer touchdowns, are still tied for averaging the sixth-most receiving yards per game. While Eric Berry made his return to the field last week, he only played about half the snaps in his first game back. Berry’s presence should increase this week, which is a bump for this defense. However, this secondary suffered a big loss last week as their top cornerback, slot man Kendall Fuller, opted for surgery on his fractured wrist and will be unavailable for the remainder of the season. The depth behind Fuller is quite suspect, which should create an opportunity for Doug Baldwin in this one. The big strength of the Chiefs defense has been their pass rush though, as defensive tackle Chris Jones is having a spectacular season with a sack in 10 straight games, totaling 14 sacks on the year. The Chiefs edge rushers are also elite and should put plenty of pressure on Russell Wilson given that pass-blocking is the clear weakness of this Seahawks offensive line. With Wilson under duress, it will be tougher to find receivers--but his mobility and efficiency should still prevail against a below average secondary without their top cornerback.

Seahawks vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.0)11 (-1.0)10 (-1.4)12 (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.9)25 (+2.9)24 (+2.1)24 (+2.3)
12Cam Newton59253025621863026.126.123.523.5
13Nick Mullens7630484142121027.827.823.726.7
14Kirk Cousins5820332081035014.914.910.811.8
15Nick Mullens622029275102-2017.617.614.814.8

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK712338295409520363633.033.0
14vs BAL863553377212-3025.625.621.824.8
15vs LAC6024342432023020.520.518.018.0

Seahawks vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.1)19 (+0.7)17 (-0.2)18 (+0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.1)29 (+5.6)24 (+3.1)29 (+6.0)
12Christian McCaffrey591712511111112135.746.741.252.7
12Alex Armah400000000.
13Jeff Wilson55156109873013.421.415.420.4
13Matt Breida10560335105.
14Dalvin Cook49135507528114.319.316.819.3
14Latavius Murray834000000.
15Matt Breida4517500554609.614.612.114.6
15Jeff Wilson12746010004.

Damien Williams (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK19538022704.
14vs BAL43814154161151917.019.0
15vs LAC44104926674024.330.327.330.3

Spencer Ware (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK4914471115011.212.211.712.2
14vs BAL41157505554012.917.915.417.9

Darrel Williams (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK30000000000.00.0
14vs BAL200011800.
15vs LAC152130221919.

Seahawks vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.5)16 (+0.7)18 (+0.9)17 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.2)16 (-0.5)19 (+0.9)18 (+0.8)
12Curtis Samuel5422171125010.
12D.J. Moore54989101709.817.813.817.8
13Dante Pettis717512921-2024.729.727.232.7
13Kendrick Bourne67646000006.
14Stefon Diggs50647601508.
14Adam Thielen56757001807.812.810.312.8
15Dante Pettis57558300008.313.310.813.3
15Kendrick Bourne46421600001.

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK63611302370565.56.0
14vs BAL65148139016014.522.518.525.5
15vs LAC53744603-504.

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK65732510008.511.510.011.5
14vs BAL85321300001.
15vs LAC57321900001.

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK42113800003.
14vs BAL56754200004.
15vs LAC3632710006.

Kelvin Benjamin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ MIA4342200000243.04.0
15vs LAC12211700001.

Seahawks vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.0)13 (-1.9)14 (-1.4)13 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (-0.1)16 (-0.6)17 (-0.3)16 (-0.7)
12Greg Olsen58421101.
13George Kittle67967007.
14Tyler Conklin7211101.
15Garrett Celek172261112.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK691312168228.840.832.842.8
14vs BAL859777113.720.717.220.7
15vs LAC60976106.113.19.613.1

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK31633919.912.911.412.9
14vs BAL28332802.
15vs LAC182000000.00.0

Seahawks vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-0.7)8 (-0.7)6 (-0.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.3)20 (+0.3)19T (+0.1) (+0.0)
12Graham Gano2333999.09.0
13Robbie Gould1111445.05.0
14Dan Bailey0111111.01.0
15Robbie Gould4422141415.015.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK2245101012.012.0
14vs BAL2433999.09.0
15vs LAC0044444.04.0

Seahawks vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-0.7)7T (-0.7)10 (-1.4)10 (-1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.5)7 (-1.5)5 (-3.6)5 (-3.6)
12Carolina Panthers3039720000221.01.0
13San Francisco 49ers433313000033-1.0-1.0
14Minnesota Vikings2127421000445.05.0
15San Francisco 49ers2338530001999.09.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ OAK33.0044230300998.08.0
14vs BAL24.0032130100555.05.0
15vs LAC29.0040752000998.08.0

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+4.0)31T (+4.0)30 (+3.5)30 (+4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.0)28 (+5.0)29 (+5.1)30 (+5.7)
13Derek Carr7629382853018027.
14Lamar Jackson691324147201371022.522.519.020.0
15Philip Rivers7426383132200021.721.720.523.5

Russell Wilson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF58111718540414026.726.724.824.8
14vs MIN661020720176108.78.710.010.0
15@ SF75233123720515021.421.419.019.0

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.5)32 (+6.5)31 (+6.0)31 (+6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.8)21 (+1.3)16 (+0.3)17 (-0.3)
13Doug Martin4018611226012.714.711.713.7
13Jalen Richard3269504331012.615.612.114.6
14Kenneth Dixon2385911121014.015.014.515.0
14Gus Edwards311667000006.
15Justin Jackson56165814327014.517.516.017.5
15Detrez Newsome186340221905.

Chris Carson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF34136904339010.813.812.313.8
14vs MIN35229010000151515.015.0
15@ SF392211916629020.826.823.829.8

Mike Davis (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF1041000000111.01.0
14vs MIN18322011502.
15@ SF335210886308.416.412.416.4

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.7)24 (+2.5)23 (+1.8)21 (+2.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.8)28 (+8.1)29 (+7.6)27 (+8.0)
13Jordy Nelson6911109700009.719.714.719.7
13Marcell Ateman62421610007.
14John Brown50622310008.310.39.310.3
14Willie Snead51756100006.111.18.611.1
15Mike Williams6697762119127.534.533.036.5
15Tyrell Williams651267100007.

Tyler Lockett (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF4021521110012.213.212.713.2
14vs MIN56654202-303.98.98.410.9
15@ SF682245011105.

Doug Baldwin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF54422210008.
15@ SF616477200019.723.721.723.7

David Moore (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF280000000000.00.0
14vs MIN525000000000.00.0
15@ SF5831900000.

Jaron Brown (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF153367200018.721.720.221.7
14vs MIN431100000010.51.0
15@ SF120000000000.00.0

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.0)32 (+3.8)32 (+3.7)32 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.0)30 (+5.4)30 (+5.3)30 (+6.3)
13Jared Cook5587100116.023.019.526.0
14Maxx Williams22111017.
15Antonio Gates42545405.

Nick Vannett (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF2511400.
14vs MIN29111201.
15@ SF201000000.00.0

Ed Dickson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF280000000.00.0
14vs MIN3611400.
15@ SF46221401.

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-0.5)15T (-0.5)11 (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.7)15 (-0.7)17 (-0.4) (+0.0)
13Daniel Carlson22339912.012.0
14Justin Tucker1133666.06.0
15Mike Badgley0033333.03.0

Sebastian Janikowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF1146778.08.0
14vs MIN2211777.07.0
15@ SF1123556.06.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-1.0)8T (-1.0)2 (-4.3)2 (-4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.0)3 (-3.0)1 (-5.8)1 (-5.8)
13Oakland Raiders404690010022-2.0-2.0
14Baltimore Ravens2744131000555.05.0
15Los Angeles Chargers2829420000221.01.0

Seattle Seahawks (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF16.0045231201151516.016.0
14vs MIN7.0027620101161616.016.0
15@ SF26.0035130100555.05.0