Matchup Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jaguars 17, Dolphins 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense16.1 (-7.4) (30)112 (-2) (19)207 (-32) (25)
Dolphins Defense26.7 (+3.3) (27)145 (+30) (31)257 (+17) (24)

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense21.1 (-2.4) (23)113 (-2) (18)190 (-50) (29)
Jaguars Defense20.6 (-2.8) (6)120 (+4) (19)199 (-40) (2)

Jaguars Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Due to a variety of factors - injuries, team performance, and just a general lack of dynamism - Leonard Fournette continues to look like a mediocre runner. On the year, he’s now averaging just 3.4 yards per rush, down even further from his ho-hum 3.9 as a rookie. In fact, he’s been held below 3.7 in 14 of his 20 NFL games, and 8 of his last 12. He broke loose for an impressive 25-yard scamper last week but managed just 21 over his other 10 attempts. Of course, not all of Fournette’s struggles this year have been his fault. Since his return from injury, the Jacksonville line, already a mediocre unit, has lost both starting guards - its two best blockers - and its right tackle to injury. Still, Fournette simply hasn’t shown the game-breaking ability to overcome with either speed, elusiveness, or power. When game flow doesn’t go the Jaguars’ way, he’s no more than a mid-level plodder, and his fantasy value is tied to his 4-10 team. And even that role may be in danger. Last Sunday, he lost huge chunks of game time - including most of the third quarter and everything after his nice run - to powerful rookie David Williams. Fournette has long frustrated the Jaguars with his nagging injuries and attitude, and Williams could be pulling into an even timeshare. Even in a cherry matchup, both Fournette’s floor and ceiling for Week 16 ground production are uninspiring.

Few matchups have been as generous throughout 2018 as Miami’s run defense. They’re giving up 145 ground yards per game, third-most in football, and 4.8 per carry (seventh-worst). Despite almost always being in slow-paced, low-volume games, they’ve allowed several backs to rack up massive rushing totals, including Kerryon Johnson (158), Aaron Jones (145), Dalvin Cook (136), and Lamar Miller (133). Even struggling runners like Dion Lewis, Jordan Howard, and LeGarrette Blount have found success. Last Sunday, Cook repeatedly found wide lanes and had little trouble outrunning Dolphins into the secondary. With the linebacker struggling to stay in the gaps, chunk runs will always be a problem for this unit, and explosive runners are always in position to put up big numbers.

Jaguars Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Serious bridges must be burned in Jacksonville because it’s hard to imagine Blake Bortles was ever quite this bad. Last Sunday against Washington, new starter Cody Kessler dropped back to throw 23 times and came away with 9 completions, 6 sacks, an interception, and 57 yards. Through 4 appearances, Kessler has managed to produce just 5.3 yards per attempt and 151 a game, with all of 2 touchdowns along the way. He’s taken 17 sacks, fumbled in each game, and led just 2 touchdown drives. He’s the league’s least productive starter by a mile, and he’s dooming any hope for fantasy value among Jacksonville’s receivers, too. Over the last 2 weeks, starters Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief have turned 27 targets into a minuscule 135 yards. This has been a shallow group all year, but is now dangerously undermanned and lacking in any dynamism. Westbrook represents virtually all of the slim fantasy appeal here - he did post 7 for 88 just 2 weeks ago. But the Dolphins’ breakout secondary is an opportunistic one, and this is not the ideal quarterback to carry into that kind of matchup.

The retooled Miami pass defense has taken appreciable steps forward here in 2018. Xavien Howard who looks like he will return this week and rookie Minkah Fitzpatrick look like core blocks for an aggressive unit that sits seventh league-wide with 20 interceptions. Still, they’ve been bowled over consistently by downfield-oriented passers, and remain nothing to fear for fantasy purposes. Five quarterbacks have easily topped 300 yards in this matchup, including the likes of Sam Darnold and Derek Carr, working through a secondary that’s shown promise but still lacks talented bodies. The return of top cornerback Howard from a knee scope would be a godsend, of course. He’s broken out this year as an occasionally-dominant downfield cover man, and he’s made a ton of splash plays, tied for the league with seven interceptions. But his fellow cornerbacks have been hit-or-miss all year; altogether, the Dolphins have allowed 10 different wideouts to top 80 yards in a game. They’re making things a bit tougher on quarterbacks, but still giving up far too many plays downfield.

Dolphins Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Frank Gore’s foot injury looks likely to end his 14th season a bit prematurely, but it was a largely successful campaign. The 35-year-old produced 4.6 yards per carry and 52 per game, serving as a dependable lead runner for Adam Gase’s ball-control scheme. Without him, Gase looks set to hand over the majority of groundwork to explosive rookie Kalen Ballage. The youngster broke out last week with 123 yards on just 12 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown scamper that showcased his blazing foot speed. It was his first time taking more than four attempts as a pro, and he acquitted himself beautifully. The 237-pound Ballage looks far more suited to the lead role than Kenyan Drake, whom Gase simply doesn’t trust for big usage. Drake hasn’t taken on double-digit carries since Week 8, averaging just 3.9 yards per rush over that span. Ballage should lead the way easily going forward, and he’ll do his best to maximize a poor offensive line and an anemic pass game that won’t draw many defenders out of the box. The situation isn’t ideal, and Ballage was a frustrating college prospect. But if last week was any indication, he certainly boasts the explosiveness to do so.

The Jacksonville run defense has been an up-and-down unit all year, characterized by extreme highs and lows. With an imposing front led by Calais Campbell, they’ve stifled a few strong runners, including Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, and Marlon Mack. But the lows have been devastating, none worse than Henry’s revenge game 2 weeks ago (238 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 17 carries). Henry’s outburst highlighted several flaws at play, including bad pursuit angles and even worse downfield tackling. Last week, they held Adrian Peterson in check for 57 minutes, only to crumble on the final, game-winning drive (5 for 31). In general, it’s easy to see signs of the Jaguars’ overall collapse manifested in this unit. Once a fairly prohibitive fantasy matchup, there’s no reason to specifically avoid the Jaguars in fantasy terms right now as you can never be sure what team will show up.

Dolphins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Likely nearing the end of his Dolphins tenure, Ryan Tannehill continues to struggle mightily. The erratic 30-year-old simply can’t seem to string together more than one solid day at a time. In all, Tannehill has started and finished 9 games this season and topped 230 yards only twice, averaging just 187 along the way. Mired in a slow, low-volume offense, he throws just 25 passes per outing and struggles to create much of anything downfield. Apart from two long throws through badly busted Oakland coverages and a last-second hook-and-lateral, he’s produced a ho-hum 6.8 yards per attempt on the year. His receiving corps has been decimated by injury, but still boasts some game-breaking ability that goes wasted in this setup. Top target Kenny Stills has reached 100 yards twice, but failed to top 40 in 9 other games. It’s hard to find any leeway as this anemic group stares down the Jacksonville pass rush and coverage units.

The Jaguars pass defense remains a strong unit and a tough fantasy matchup for mediocre passing games like Miami’s. It’s not a unit that’s tested often as lesser offenses tend to scheme away from this point of strength - and it’s just punishing enough to thoroughly stifle its weaker opponents. Over the last 4 weeks, only Andrew Luck has topped 165 yards through the air, and only 2 touchdowns have been allowed. The stronger quarterbacks on the schedule (Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz) have found ways to exploit this slightly-underachieving group, but Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ decimated offense look ill-equipped for the challenge. The Jacksonville pass rush, which has underperformed for much of the year, boasts a massive advantage in the trenches. And the cornerback duo of A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, while not as dominant as it was last year, remains a nightmare matchup against Miami’s low-impact downfield game. It’s not wise to project much efficiency against this group, especially for Week 16.

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.0)22 (+1.1)23 (+1.3)26 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+8.3)32 (+8.5)32 (+8.6)32 (+10.2)
12Andrew Luck6930373433225028.
13Josh Allen721833231229135031.131.130.733.7
14Tom Brady8227433583013030.230.226.629.6
15Kirk Cousins6914212152157018.518.516.316.3

Cody Kessler (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4600)

13vs IND58182415000528010.310.38.88.8
14@ TEN71254324010517017.717.713.314.3
15vs WAS52917570166808.
16PROJ-Dodds2032220114230.116.916.916.9 (H=43)16.9 (H=58)
16PROJ-Tremblay22352391.115270.118.718.718.7 (H=51)18.7 (H=69)
16PROJ-Bloom15241410.90.55270.113.413.413.4 (H=28)13.4 (H=38)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.2)27 (+3.9)27 (+3.8)27 (+4.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.9)19 (+0.5)19 (+0.9)19 (+0.3)
12Marlon Mack3615850221109.611.610.611.6
12Nyheim Hines269280222205.
13LeSean McCoy5415520441206.410.48.410.4
13Patrick DiMarco10000113803.
14James Develin3612100006.
14Sony Michel342057000005.
15Dalvin Cook421913622127028.329.328.832.3
15Latavius Murray2715681000012.812.812.812.8

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6000)

14@ TEN551436032504.
15vs WAS2711460431806.
16PROJ-Dodds17650.43270. (H=25)15.2 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay16640.44300.112.416.414.4 (H=27)16.4 (H=42)
16PROJ-Bloom12510.53150. (H=19)13.2 (H=29)

T.J. Yeldon (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4000)

13vs IND358160874906.513.510.013.5
14@ TEN13170111001.
15vs WAS1836031501.
16PROJ-Dodds31403230. (H=9)7.3 (H=15)
16PROJ-Tremblay31102170. (H=5)5.4 (H=9)
16PROJ-Bloom3160.12140. (H=7)6.2 (H=11)

David Williams (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

15vs WAS8532000003.
16PROJ-Dodds4150.10002.12.12.1 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay3140.1000222.0 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
16PROJ-Bloom8310.10003.73.73.7 (H=4)3.7 (H=6)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.9)13 (+0.0)14 (+0.8)13 (+0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+6.9)27 (+8.0)28 (+7.5)28 (+8.3)
12T.Y. Hilton60107125000012.519.516.022.5
12Chester Rogers32434900004.
13Zay Jones669467200018.722.722.724.7
13Isaiah McKenzie35444600004.
14Julian Edelman7512986100014.623.619.123.6
14Cordarrelle Patterson183251100011.
15Stefon Diggs557449119011.815.813.815.8
15Aldrick Robinson152244100010.412.411.412.4

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4900)

13vs IND51532501-
14@ TEN6510788100014.821.818.321.8
15vs WAS435321012004.17.111.613.1
16PROJ-Dodds4520.31407.411.49.5 (H=17)11.5 (H=28)
16PROJ-Tremblay5570.31307.812.810.4 (H=21)12.9 (H=34)
16PROJ-Bloom4430.40006.710.78.8 (H=15)10.8 (H=25)

Donte Moncrief (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

13vs IND4543400000475.57.0
14@ TEN521054700004.
15vs WAS402000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds3440.20005.68.67.1 (H=12)8.6 (H=23)
16PROJ-Tremblay3470.20005.98.97.4 (H=13)8.9 (H=24)
16PROJ-Bloom3410.20005.38.36.8 (H=11)8.3 (H=21)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3200)

13vs IND37221600001.
14@ TEN51735500005.
15vs WAS390000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

16PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
16PROJ-Tremblay11100001.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.9)22 (+2.1)23T (+2.0)22 (+2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.5)31 (+6.7)31 (+6.2)31 (+7.4)
12Eric Ebron497545216.521.519.021.5
13Charles Clay4521900.
14Rob Gronkowski7888107116.724.720.727.7
15Tyler Conklin23325305.

James OShaughnessy (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

13vs IND39221901.
14@ TEN53431201.
15vs WAS4111700.
16PROJ-Dodds2230. (H=6)5.5 (H=15)
16PROJ-Tremblay3260. (H=8)6.8 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom21701.73.72.7 (H=2)3.7 (H=7)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

13vs IND180000000.00.0
14@ TEN23221601.
15vs WAS1911600.
16PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay1120. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (+0.7)23T (+0.7)26 (+1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (+1.3)23T (+1.3)22 (+0.8) (+0.0)
12Adam Vinatieri23339910.010.0
13Steve Hauschka1201333.03.0
14Stephen Gostkowski2334999.09.0
15Dan Bailey2255111111.011.0

Kai Forbath (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

15vs WAS2211778.08.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.0)26 (+1.0)14T (+1.3)14T (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.5)16T (-0.5)14 (-0.3)14 (-0.3)
12Indianapolis Colts2431410100333.03.0
13Buffalo Bills2117531000555.05.0
14New England Patriots3441250000556.06.0
15Minnesota Vikings17193900009913.013.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2700)

13vs IND0.00265311007717.017.0
14@ TEN30.0042611010554.04.0
15vs WAS16.00245300013310.010.0
16PROJ-Dodds21.503042.20.90.600. (H=18)8.9 (H=32)
16PROJ-Tremblay21.752991.80.90.700. (H=17)8.7 (H=31)

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.9)8 (-1.9)9 (-1.5)8 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.3)11 (-2.3)12 (-1.5)12 (-2.2)
12Josh Allen58819160101399127.927.926.326.3
13Andrew Luck76335224801216013.013.010.510.5
14Marcus Mariota6018241620141308.
15Josh Johnson68162515110949016.516.514.914.9

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $4600)

13vs BUF551624137313-5017.417.416.016.0
14vs NE46141926530113026.626.623.923.9
15@ MIN531124108001105.
16PROJ-Dodds19302131.50.93120.117.617.617.6 (H=42)17.6 (H=62)
16PROJ-Tremblay18282011.50.93100.116.816.816.8 (H=38)16.8 (H=57)
16PROJ-Bloom142314010.76270.113.613.613.6 (H=27)13.6 (H=39)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.6)5 (-4.5)17T (-3.7)7 (-4.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.2)15 (+0.0)17 (+0.3)18 (+0.1)
12LeSean McCoy371746011705.
12Chris Ivory19314000001.
13Nyheim Hines46450995005.514.510.014.5
13Marlon Mack28827011603.
14Derrick Henry24172384000047.847.847.850.8
14Dion Lewis3810130553905.210.27.710.2
15Adrian Peterson3719510322007.
15Byron Marshall7000111701.

Kenyan Drake (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3900)

13vs BUF3073104213110.412.411.412.4
14vs NE2462401155113.914.914.414.9
15@ MIN28160332803.
16PROJ-Dodds6290.23340.39.312.310.8 (H=21)12.3 (H=39)
16PROJ-Tremblay7310.24290.391311.0 (H=21)13.0 (H=43)
16PROJ-Bloom6200.23260.37.610.69.1 (H=15)10.6 (H=30)

Kalen Ballage (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3700)

13vs BUF843000000.
14vs NE00000000000.00.0
15@ MIN2612123111-2018.119.118.622.1
16PROJ-Dodds14540.41908.79.79.2 (H=16)9.7 (H=27)
16PROJ-Tremblay12500.41708.19.18.6 (H=15)9.1 (H=24)
16PROJ-Bloom15510.32210.19.611.610.6 (H=21)11.6 (H=37)

Brandon Bolden (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

13vs BUF311000000111.01.0
14vs NE426021100181918.519.0
15@ MIN3112000001.
16PROJ-Dodds3180.10002.42.42.4 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay270.10101.41.41.4 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-5.9)1 (-8.0)1 (-7.1)2T (-8.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-7.4)3 (-11.1)3 (-9.2)2 (-11.8)
12Robert Foster333294100015.417.416.417.4
12Isaiah McKenzie33321102817.
13T.Y. Hilton661387700007.715.711.715.7
13Zach Pascal42111601201.
14Taywan Taylor41765900005.911.98.911.9
14Corey Davis50322101002.
15Jamison Crowder42444600004.
15Michael Floyd46321600001.

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4100)

13vs BUF48643710009.713.711.713.7
14vs NE4098135100019.527.523.530.5
15@ MIN51311700001.
16PROJ-Dodds3500.40007.410.48.9 (H=16)10.4 (H=28)
16PROJ-Tremblay4520.40007.611.69.6 (H=18)11.6 (H=34)
16PROJ-Bloom3260.20003.86.85.3 (H=6)6.8 (H=13)

Danny Amendola (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3800)

14vs NE2311100000121.52.0
15@ MIN3983300000364.56.0
16PROJ-Dodds3350.20004.77.76.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay3350.20004.77.76.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=18)
16PROJ-Bloom2210.10002.74.73.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=7)

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3600)

13vs BUF467443100010.314.312.314.3
14vs NE42411800001.
15@ MIN191000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds3340.20004.67.66.1 (H=9)7.6 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay2320.20004.46.45.4 (H=8)6.4 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Brice Butler (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

13vs BUF34442500002.
14vs NE19112310008.
15@ MIN25311200001.
16PROJ-Dodds2200.10002.64.63.6 (H=3)4.6 (H=9)
16PROJ-Tremblay1190.10002.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+1.1)17T (+1.0)18 (+0.9)17 (+1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.1)17 (+0.1)15 (-0.9)17 (-0.2)
12Jason Croom29321601.
13Eric Ebron5816108107.
14Anthony Firkser24332702.
15Jeremy Sprinkle41331917.910.99.410.9

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2600)

13vs BUF220000000.00.0
14vs NE201000000.00.0
15@ MIN25322302.
16PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom2230. (H=4)4.9 (H=12)

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

13vs BUF3211900.
14vs NE240000000.00.0
15@ MIN251000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1900.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (+0.2)7T (+0.2)20T (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.2)7 (-1.2)5T (-1.7) (+0.0)
12Steve Hauschka1133666.06.0
13Rigoberto Sanchez0000000.00.0
14Ryan Succop1134666.06.0
15Dustin Hopkins3311101011.011.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs BUF0033333.03.0
14vs NE0044444.04.0
15@ MIN1122555.05.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+0.9)25 (+0.9)30 (+2.7)30 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.0)22 (+1.0)27 (+3.7)27 (+3.7)
12Buffalo Bills2133332000777.07.0
13Indianapolis Colts6211301005512.012.0
14Tennessee Titans9255401006610.010.0
15Washington Redskins1319261100101014.014.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2700)

13vs BUF17.0041522100889.09.0
14vs NE33.0042120000221.01.0
15@ MIN41.004182100110106.06.0
16PROJ-Dodds18.003472.510.800.510.810.810.8 (H=28)10.8 (H=45)
16PROJ-Tremblay17.253582.310.900.511.111.111.1 (H=29)11.1 (H=47)