Matchup Analysis: Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Texans 22, Eagles 23

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense25.1 (+1.7) (11)130 (+15) (6)233 (-6) (18)
Eagles Defense22.7 (-0.7) (16)105 (-9) (11)281 (+41) (31)

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Eagles Offense22.2 (-1.2) (18)99 (-15) (27)256 (+16) (12)
Texans Defense20.1 (-3.4) (5)88 (-26) (4)258 (+18) (26)

Texans Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Houston is third in the NFL with 420 rushes but is merely an average unit in efficiency and is in the bottom-10 for producing explosive plays from the run game. Lamar Miller has been the lead back when healthy but missed the second half of Week 15 with an ankle injury, which is not believed to be serious but could threaten his status for Week 16. Blue excelled as a receiver in his Week 5 spot start for Lamar Miller but was held in check on the ground, which was the same story in Week 15 with struggling as a run game. D’Onta Foreman is also close to returning to active status following a late-season Achilles injury last year.

The Eagles have faced the second-fewest running back carries this season as. However, they have been gashed to the tune of 4.8 yards-per-carry and have been far worse over the second half of the season than the first. All of the Eagles’ five 100-yard rushers allowed have been since Week 6 as well as eight rushing touchdowns combined. While they held Todd Gurley to 48 yards last week, he did score two rushing touchdowns against the Eagles and game script and injury was a factor to limiting Gurley to 12 carries. This remains one of the most talented defensive lines in football led by Fletcher Cox, but the inconsistency has been a real problem as the defense has tried to make up for their lack of passing defense by playing nickel and dime looks.

Texans Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Deshaun Watson has avoided turnovers over his last four games, including a road win over the Jets in Week 15. Watson is near the top of the NFL in yards-per-attempt, yards-per-completion, and touchdown rate. Watson, however, has been a sack magnet, absorbing an NFL-high 52 sacks and at least four in each of the last four games. Houston lost Will Fuller midseason and Keke Coutee has sparsely played over the past two months due to injury himself. As a result, DeAndre Hopkins has been even more important to Houston’s pass game. Demaryius Thomas has been functional but unspectacular in his six games with Houston, but yet to surpass 61 yards in any singular game or provide any downfield presence of note. The tight end position has been a middling unit with three viable tight ends seeing snaps and rotating their weekly receiving impact.

The Eagles secondary continues to be one of the worst in the NFL as they have allowed 269 yards or more in every game since week 4 with the exception of one game against Mark Sanchez. The Eagles have been the second-easiest adjusted matchup for opposing wide receivers this season. They allowed the historic 10-217-3 stat line to Amari Cooper two weeks ago and 10-157-1 to Tre’Quan Smith back in Week 11. Generating pressure has been an equal concern with the sixth-lowest sack rate in the NFL. On the plus side, Philadelphia’s 3.6% touchdown rate allowed is among the best in the league and they have forced six turnovers over the past two weeks, their best two-game span of the season. Injuries have ravaged the Eagles secondary with four of their five starting cornerbacks are out for the year and nursing other missing pieces from Week 15.

Eagles Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Eagles are a middle-of-the-road rushing offense in terms of volume, but are among the worst in the NFL on a per-carry basis for efficiency. The rotation of running backs has changed on a near-weekly basis based on availability. Josh Adams was the clear lead back until two weeks ago when Darren Sproles returned to a full complement of snaps and Wendell Smallwood boosted back up in Week 15. All three have been used in the red zone and Adams has been a touchdown-or-bust option since rising in prominence midseason.

The Texans have been the most stingy run defense in the NFL on a per-carry basis and just 88 yards-per-game overall. Houston has also allowed only three rushes of 20 or more yards on the season, the fewest in the NFL and no runs of at least 40 yards. Houston has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and only Saquon Barkley back in Week 3 has surpassed even 75 yards in a game (17-82-1). The Texans have been even more difficult on running backs of late with Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack, and Elijah McGuire all failing to hit 50 rushing yards over the past month. Led by J.J. Watt and middle linebacker Bernardrick McKinney, this is one of the top units in football.

Eagles Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Nick Foles was back under center for the Eagles in Week 15, an impressive road win over the Rams. Foles was bold downfield to Alshon Jeffery but struggled on a handful of critical throws from should-be interceptions (two of them) to a turnover and missing receivers. On the plus side, Foles avoided sacks and was accurate on throws despite absorbing big hits in the pocket against the Rams. The Eagles have used Golden Tate primarily on short after-the-catch-centric targets since his acquisition and Nelson Agholor has morphed into a situational option at best. Zach Ertz is coming off his least productive two-game stretch of the season with 8-60-0 on a sturdy 15 targets over the span.

The Texans passing defense has fallen on hard times over the last four weeks after getting off to a tremendous start to the season. The Texans have allowed three of the last four quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards and have allowed two touchdowns in three of those games. The Texans have been generous as a schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing wide receivers and tight ends this season. Robby Anderson, T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry, and Corey Davis have all posted at least 90 yards against Houston over the past four games. The results have been equally-suspect against tight ends with Chris Herndon, Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser, Jordan Reed, and Jeff Heuerman all-surpassing 50 yards since Week 9. Big plays have been a concern area for Houston’s pass defense, allowing 11 plays of 40 or more yards on the season, third-most in the NFL. Houston has been a sturdy unit in forcing pressure and turnovers, however, with 24 turnovers and nearly three sacks per game.

Eagles vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.4)24 (+1.4)22 (+1.1)23 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.2)15 (-0.2)13 (-1.2)16 (-0.2)
12Eli Manning6226372971100017.917.914.914.9
13Mark Sanchez321321100011804.
14Dak Prescott9942544553242033.033.026.430.4
15Jared Goff76355433902211016.116.112.715.7

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6600)

13vs CLE76223122410730018.
14vs IND72273826710535020.920.918.218.2
15@ NYJ53222829420426025.325.322.422.4
16PROJ-Dodds21332491.60.95320.222.422.422.4 (H=54)22.4 (H=66)
16PROJ-Tremblay19302291.50.86300.220.920.920.9 (H=48)20.9 (H=58)
16PROJ-Bloom19272151.70.64290. (H=49)21.1 (H=59)

Eagles vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.5)20 (+1.1)19 (+0.5)22 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.4)32 (+8.2)30 (+6.5)32 (+9.1)
12Saquon Barkley481310118741126.233.229.736.2
12Wayne Gallman14525022-
13Adrian Peterson169981000015.815.815.815.8
13Chris Thompson29330531802.
14Ezekiel Elliott86281130131279019.
14Rod Smith134270221604.
15Todd Gurley6312482131076024.434.429.434.4
15John Kelly724000000.

Lamar Miller (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5000)

13vs CLE411910301112011.512.512.015.5
14vs IND51143316519011.216.213.716.2
15@ NYJ1138000000.
16PROJ-Dodds13560.32140.19.411.410.4 (H=18)11.4 (H=27)
16PROJ-Tremblay12530.321308.410.49.4 (H=15)10.4 (H=23)
16PROJ-Bloom12510.4160. (H=14)9.7 (H=20)

Alfred Blue (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

13vs CLE361354000005.
14vs IND22621110008.
15@ NYJ4196022901.
16PROJ-Dodds8290.31705.46.45.9 (H=8)6.4 (H=11)
16PROJ-Tremblay10400.21705.96.96.4 (H=9)6.9 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom12400.20005.25.25.2 (H=6)5.2 (H=7)

DOnta Foreman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3600)

16PROJ-Dodds2100.10001.61.61.6 (H=1)1.6 (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay290.10201.71.71.7 (H=1)1.7 (H=1)

Eagles vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.4)31 (+7.2)31 (+5.5)30 (+7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+2.7)22 (+5.1)20 (+3.4)22 (+4.8)
12Odell Beckham53958500008.513.511.013.5
12Sterling Shepard57643700003.
13Josh Doctson43535100005.
13Jamison Crowder29443601-503.
14Amari Cooper901310217300039.749.744.752.7
14Michael Gallup77942400002.
15Robert Woods769774011909.316.312.816.3
15Josh Reynolds751257000007.012.09.512.0

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8900, DraftKings: $8600)

13vs CLE751279100009.116.112.616.1
14vs IND721043610009.613.611.613.6
15@ NYJ5111101702000293934.042.0
16PROJ-Dodds7950.700013.720.717.2 (H=31)20.7 (H=44)
16PROJ-Tremblay6870.600012.318.315.3 (H=25)18.3 (H=35)
16PROJ-Bloom7970.800014.521.518.0 (H=33)21.5 (H=47)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4700)

13vs CLE60533200003.
14vs IND68644800004.
15@ NYJ47865900005.911.98.911.9
16PROJ-Dodds4490.30006.710.78.7 (H=15)10.7 (H=25)
16PROJ-Tremblay3420.3000697.5 (H=12)9.0 (H=19)
16PROJ-Bloom4440.40006.810.88.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=26)

DeAndre Carter (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

13vs CLE44663200003.
14vs IND81100000010.51.0
15@ NYJ32325501706.
16PROJ-Dodds2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay1180.10202.63.63.1 (H=3)3.6 (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom2170.10002.34.33.3 (H=3)4.3 (H=7)

Keke Coutee (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4300)

16PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
16PROJ-Tremblay1170.10002.33.32.8 (H=2)3.3 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Eagles vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.1)8 (-2.3)8 (-2.2)7 (-2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.2)23 (+2.3)21 (+1.1)23 (+2.2)
12Rhett Ellison55647707.711.79.711.7
13Jordan Reed31542102.
14Blake Jarwin58775605.612.69.112.6
15Gerald Everett34754604.

Jordan Thomas (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2900)

13vs CLE40333219.212.210.712.2
14vs IND33443103.
15@ NYJ2411200.
16PROJ-Dodds2180.2354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=11)
16PROJ-Tremblay2170. (H=4)4.9 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom2180.2354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=11)

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2700)

13vs CLE61111201.
14vs IND595580081310.513.0
15@ NYJ4411-10-
16PROJ-Dodds2210. (H=4)4.7 (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay1170. (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom2220. (H=4)4.8 (H=11)

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

13vs CLE21111301.
14vs IND1522400465.06.0
15@ NYJ140000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom11101.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Eagles vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+1.4)28T (+1.4)30 (+1.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.1)31 (+3.1)31 (+4.1) (+0.0)
12Aldrick Rosas3311101012.012.0
13Dustin Hopkins2211779.09.0
14Brett Maher3422111113.013.0
15Greg Zuerlein3322111112.012.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs CLE5522171721.021.0
14vs IND0033333.03.0
15@ NYJ5522171722.022.0

Eagles vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.2)15 (-0.2)15 (-0.6)15 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.3)2 (-3.3)2 (-4.8)2 (-4.8)
12New York Giants2534130000333.03.0
13Washington Redskins2843601000221.01.0
14Dallas Cowboys2325620100444.04.0
15Los Angeles Rams3038101000221.01.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $3100)

13vs CLE13.0042803101141418.018.0
14vs IND24.0043621000444.04.0
15@ NYJ22.0031830100555.05.0
16PROJ-Dodds23.303502.310.700. (H=19)8.6 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay23.253472.41.10.700. (H=20)8.9 (H=28)

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.2)14 (-0.2)15 (-0.4)14 (-0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.2)31 (+6.1)30 (+5.3)31 (+6.9)
12Marcus Mariota55222330320628026.026.022.925.9
13Baker Mayfield5729433971300020.920.916.919.9
14Andrew Luck67274139921616028.628.624.627.6
15Sam Darnold75243825320635024.224.221.621.6

Nick Foles (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4700)

15@ LAR64243127001250131310.310.3
16PROJ-Dodds24362631.60.9230.119.619.619.6 (H=57)19.6 (H=73)
16PROJ-Tremblay24372591.61.1340.119.319.319.3 (H=56)19.3 (H=71)
16PROJ-Bloom23352161.6124016.616.616.6 (H=43)16.6 (H=55)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.1)8 (-2.8)8 (-3.2)8 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.6)5 (-4.3)4 (-5.8)4 (-5.5)
12Derrick Henry278300321904.
12Dion Lewis29780773304.111.17.611.1
13Nick Chubb2793113341013.216.214.716.2
13Dontrell Hilliard12000444004.
14Marlon Mack401433110009.
14Nyheim Hines28310531601.
15Elijah McGuire56184214329013.116.112.615.1
15Trenton Cannon237130432403.

Josh Adams (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4400)

13vs WAS412085000008.
14@ DAL21736000003.
15@ LAR241528110008.
16PROJ-Dodds13500.41407.88.88.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay12480.40307.57.57.5 (H=10)7.5 (H=14)
16PROJ-Bloom12390.30005.75.75.7 (H=6)5.7 (H=9)

Wendell Smallwood (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

13vs WAS20000000000.00.0
14@ DAL413000000.
15@ LAR2010482229017.719.718.719.7
16PROJ-Dodds7270.211004.95.95.4 (H=7)5.9 (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay6230.21704.25.24.7 (H=6)5.2 (H=11)
16PROJ-Bloom9370.321106.68.67.6 (H=14)8.6 (H=27)

Darren Sproles (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3600)

13vs WAS9422100008.
14@ DAL22120333419.612.611.112.6
15@ LAR203300431604.
16PROJ-Dodds3110.13230. (H=10)7.7 (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay290.13230. (H=9)7.5 (H=18)
16PROJ-Bloom3200.13200. (H=12)8.3 (H=21)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.7)10 (-0.3)9 (-0.8)10 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+8.6)31 (+10.7)31 (+9.2)31 (+11.2)
12Corey Davis5344961139019.523.521.523.5
12Cameron Batson28111300001.
13Rashard Higgins334462100012.
13Jarvis Landry4696103000010.316.313.319.3
14T.Y. Hilton54129199000019.928.924.431.9
14Zach Pascal356568100012.817.815.317.8
15Robby Anderson7111796100015.622.619.122.6
15Andre Roberts29431610007.610.69.110.6

Alshon Jeffery (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5300)

13vs WAS66533100003.
14@ DAL5196501000111714.017.0
15@ LAR64881600000162420.027.0
16PROJ-Dodds5620.40008.613.611.1 (H=20)13.6 (H=34)
16PROJ-Tremblay4500.30006.810.88.8 (H=13)10.8 (H=23)
16PROJ-Bloom6810.500011.117.114.1 (H=31)17.1 (H=51)

Golden Tate (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4800)

13vs WAS367785100014.521.520.023.5
14@ DAL2031700000.
15@ LAR22554300004.
16PROJ-Dodds4400.20005.29.27.2 (H=10)9.2 (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay3410.20205.58.57.0 (H=10)8.5 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom4370.30005.59.57.5 (H=11)9.5 (H=20)

Nelson Agholor (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3700)

13vs WAS65845600005.
14@ DAL49324900004.
15@ LAR6321800000.
16PROJ-Dodds2300.20004.26.25.2 (H=6)6.2 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=4)5.2 (H=9)
16PROJ-Bloom190.10001.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)

Jordan Matthews (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

13vs WAS2121410006.
14@ DAL1111600000.
15@ LAR50000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.0)26 (+2.6)26 (+2.2)26 (+2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.8)28 (+4.5)28 (+4.2)27 (+4.4)
12Jonnu Smith422263112.314.313.314.3
13Seth DeValve6211901.
14Eric Ebron458465112.516.514.516.5
15Chris Herndon52435305.

Zach Ertz (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5900)

13vs WAS591098308.317.312.817.3
14@ DAL44853803.
15@ LAR59732202.
16PROJ-Dodds6680. (H=20)15.2 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay7670. (H=21)16.1 (H=41)
16PROJ-Bloom5450.46.911.99.4 (H=13)11.9 (H=24)

Dallas Goedert (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $2600)

13vs WAS393000000.00.0
14@ DAL315444110.414.412.414.4
15@ LAR39221201.
16PROJ-Dodds2230. (H=5)5.5 (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay3270. (H=7)6.9 (H=21)
16PROJ-Bloom2130. (H=3)4.5 (H=10)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-0.8)7 (-0.8)8T (-0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-2.7)3T (-2.7)4 (-2.9) (+0.0)
12Ryan Succop1122555.05.0
13Greg Joseph0011111.01.0
14Adam Vinatieri1133668.08.0
15Jason Myers1113444.04.0

Jake Elliott (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs WAS22228810.010.0
14@ DAL1123555.05.0
15@ LAR3433121215.015.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-0.7)10T (-0.7)12 (-1.1)12 (-1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.3)10T (-1.3)7 (-2.8)7 (-2.8)
12Tennessee Titans3446240000443.03.0
13Cleveland Browns2938440000444.04.0
14Indianapolis Colts2131550000555.05.0
15New York Jets2928660000665.05.0

Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2100)

13vs WAS13.0023531000559.09.0
14@ DAL29.0057632100998.08.0
15@ LAR23.0041312100779.09.0
16PROJ-Dodds22.903662.50.90.600. (H=24)8.4 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay22.253631.90.80.600. (H=21)7.8 (H=33)