Matchup Analysis: Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bears 23, 49ers 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense27.4 (+3.9) (6)120 (+5) (14)226 (-13) (22)
49ers Defense26.6 (+3.2) (26)112 (-2) (14)233 (-6) (12)

San Francisco 49ers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
49ers Offense21.5 (-1.9) (22)123 (+8) (10)241 (+1) (15)
Bears Defense18.9 (-4.6) (3)84 (-31) (2)227 (-12) (10)

Bears Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

The Bears rushing offense continues to be centered around Jordan Howard, who is receiving the vast majority of the volume on the ground. Howard has seen 19 carries in back-to-back games with at least 16 carries in four of his last five outings. Over those last five games, Howard has rushed 79 times with at least 60 yards in four of the five outings while Tarik Cohen has rushed just 32 times with one game of over 30 rushing yards. Howard ended a five-game touchdown drought last week as he scored his sixth rushing touchdown of the season. While Howard is the clear leader on the ground, his efficiency has been an issue as he is barely averaging 3.5 yards per rush attempt due in part to shaky play from his offensive line. Losing Kyle Long was a big deal for this offensive line, as they have not looked the same since then and are average, at best, as a run-blocking unit.

The 49ers had a tough outing for the second time against Seattle this season as they allowed Chris Carson to run for 119 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. San Francisco has now allowed one rushing touchdown in four straight, but if not for facing Seattle who is the most run-heavy offense in football twice over that span, their stats actually would be serviceable. While touchdowns have been an issue for this run defense, they are giving up an average of just 89 rushing yards per game to running backs which is just below league average. DeForest Buckner has been up and down this season, but he had a great game last week despite the stats amassed by Seattle. Arik Armstead has also been a key piece of this interior defensive line, but the 49ers have been weaker on the edges and thirsted for a run-stopping playmaker in the secondary with top safety Jaquiski Tartt sidelined from a shoulder injury. The 49ers should pose a challenge for this middling Bears offensive line, but Howard is capable of picking up extra yards after contact against this secondary and linebacker group.

Bears Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

This Bears offense has not been particularly known for their passing excellence this season as Mitchell Trubisky has put up serviceable, but not spectacular, numbers while airing on the side of caution more often than not. Tarik Cohen has been a staple in the offensive game plan catching those short passes out of the backfield, and he has shown a high ceiling at times with a couple games of over 120 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns on the season. Neither Allen Robinson nor Taylor Gabriel has shown much upside in recent weeks, while Trey Burton finally re-appeared with a touchdown and four receptions last week but still has competition for snaps and targets from Adam Shaheen. Overall, Tarik Cohen is the most reliable and predictable weapon in this passing offense. The Bears continue to utilize a horizontal passing offense instead of a vertical one as the Bears did not complete a pass longer than 13 yards through the air last week.

The San Francisco defense has been sub-par for most of the season due to their lack of playmakers to generate turnovers along with a lackluster pass rush. They rank at the bottom of the league in turnovers generated with less than half the turnovers of the next best team and are riding a five-game streak without forcing a single giveaway. The secondary has trended in the wrong direction as they have been below average against wide receivers all season, but Richard Sherman’s play has dropped off in recent weeks to make this much less of a feared unit. The 49ers also lost starting cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon to injury last week, yielding to a rookie replacement in Tarvarius Moore who will be a matchup to exploit for these Bears outside receivers. This secondary has covered tight ends relatively well this season though, allowing just the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position in PPR scoring formats. Since Week 7, however, the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends with no games of over four receptions for 46 yards and just one touchdown given up over that span which could make for a tough day for Trey Burton.

49ers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Matt Breida returned to the field from his ankle injury to handily lead the 49ers backfield with more than twice the carries of Jeff Wilson. It was not pretty for Breida during most of last week’s game though as he had a long run of just eight yards while averaging below three yards per carry. Breida also re-aggravated his ankle injury in the fourth quarter and was unable to return to the game. He has dealt with injuries all season, and it is tough to say how much more his body can hold up to as his status will be worth monitoring. Wilson had a tough outing last week as he was a secondary option to Breida while dropping a pass and fumbling. Wilson has shown some explosiveness in the past four games he has appeared in though, averaging just over four yards per carry with a few long runs of note. However, if Breida is on the field, it is clear that this coaching staff wants Wilson to remain in that secondary role.

The Bears have smothered opposing ground games this season, holding offenses to the second-fewest rushing yards per game while allowing just five rushing touchdowns this season--fewest in the league. Running backs are averaging just 71 rushing yards per game when facing Chicago, leading to the position scoring just the third-fewest fantasy points per game against the Bears. Loaded with talent, this Bears defensive front should have no problem lining up against what has been an above average 49ers offensive line. Akiem Hicks has dominated matchups all season while Khalil Mack coming off the edge will be a tough assignment for Joe Staley. With both Mack and Hicks worthy of double-teaming, the 49ers simply do not have the manpower to keep up with the pressure this Bears defensive front will apply to them while trying to make space for their running backs. The only negative for this Bears defense is the loss of top safety Eddie Jackson who, while not critical to their run defense, has still been a key playmaker for this defense and will be missed with a downgrade to Deon Bush as his replacement.

49ers Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Nick Mullens has been serviceable for the 49ers since taking over the starting role. He has certainly had some up and down weeks, but Mullens has thrown for at least one touchdown in every start while ranking third in passing yards per attempt (amongst quarterbacks with multiple starts) since Week 9. George Kittle continues to put up steady performances despite posting his lowest reception total (3) since Week 2 in last week’s game. The red zone usage is starting to fall off for Kittle though, which is of slight concern. After opening the season with 11 red zone looks in his first 10 games, Kittle has seen just one red zone look in his last four outings with only one touchdown in his last five games. Touchdowns aside, Kittle continues to see elite level volume for a tight end as he has been targeted at least eight times in seven of his last eight games with more than double the targets of any other 49ers receiver this season. Rookie Dante Pettis has come on strong late in the season as the second best option in this passing offense as he is averaging just over six targets and 84 yards per game with four touchdowns in the last four weeks.

San Francisco draws a very difficult matchup this week against one of the best defenses in football. The Bears kept Aaron Rodgers out of the end zone last week while picking him off once and sacking him five times as they all but shut down the Packers offense outside of Davante Adams. This defensive front is frightening for opposing offensive lines. They have racked up multiple sacks in seven straight games with at least three sacks in their last three outings. As a whole, this defense has forced a league-leading 35 turnovers (compared to just five forced by the 49ers), led primarily by their ball-hawking secondary that has nabbed 26 interceptions. That secondary has suffered a few big injuries in recent weeks though. They lost one of the best cornerbacks, Bryce Callahan, in Week 14 followed by the critical loss of top safety Eddie Jackson last week, who suffered a high ankle sprain that will sideline him this week at a minimum. Jackson ranks tied for third in the league with six interceptions, and Deon Bush will be a big downgrade as his replacement. For Callahan, however, Sherrick McManis had a great game covering the slot in Week 15 despite his poor track record in the NFL as a clear backup option. George Kittle should benefit from the injury to Jackson, however, he still will see tough coverage from Adrian Amos Jr.

49ers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.2)23 (+1.2)26 (+1.6)24 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.7)27 (+3.7)27 (+4.0)27 (+4.0)
12Jameis Winston73293831220724026.026.022.925.9
13Russell Wilson58111718540414026.726.724.824.8
14Case Keenum74244218610424015.715.713.813.8
15Russell Wilson75233123720515021.421.419.019.0

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6300)

14vs LAR7116301101362308.
15vs GB60202823520316021.421.419.019.0
16PROJ-Dodds21332411.60.94270.221.521.521.5 (H=51)21.5 (H=64)
16PROJ-Tremblay21332301.515310.220.820.820.8 (H=48)20.8 (H=60)
16PROJ-Bloom19261921.70.75260.219.519.519.5 (H=43)19.5 (H=54)

49ers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.6)27T (+1.6)21 (+1.3)21 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.6)27 (+4.4)27 (+3.8)27T (+4.6)
12Peyton Barber36184712216012.314.313.314.3
12Jacquizz Rodgers345310543106.
13Rashaad Penny127651000012.512.512.512.5
13Chris Carson34136904339010.813.812.313.8
14Phillip Lindsay48143017421011.
14Royce Freeman9636010003.
15Chris Carson392211916629020.826.823.829.8
15Mike Davis335210886308.416.412.416.4

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6400)

13@ NYG4283001412156022.734.728.637.6
14vs LAR309690442008.912.910.912.9
15vs GB3852106531111.216.211.715.2
16PROJ-Dodds7300.25490.310.915.913.5 (H=26)16.0 (H=38)
16PROJ-Tremblay7270.25440.310.115.112.7 (H=23)15.2 (H=34)
16PROJ-Bloom8330.25310.4101512.6 (H=23)15.1 (H=34)

Jordan Howard (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4300)

13@ NYG34167601140898.59.0
14vs LAR39191010112010.311.310.814.3
15vs GB34196011115013.514.514.014.5
16PROJ-Dodds16580.41809109.5 (H=16)10.0 (H=25)
16PROJ-Tremblay15560.41508.59.59.0 (H=14)9.5 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom17710.515010.611.611.1 (H=21)11.6 (H=32)

Taquan Mizzell (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ NYG13370221602.
14vs LAR611000000.
15vs GB111101190121.52.0
16PROJ-Dodds130170121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay1501601.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

49ers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.5)25 (+2.7)29 (+3.3)27 (+3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+8.5)30 (+9.4)30 (+9.0)29 (+9.4)
12Mike Evans5886116000011.617.614.620.6
12Adam Humphries386654100011.417.414.417.4
13Jaron Brown153367200018.721.720.221.7
13Tyler Lockett4021521110012.213.212.713.2
14DaeSean Hamilton729747100010.717.714.217.7
14Tim Patrick6410785011109.616.613.116.6
15Doug Baldwin616477200019.723.721.723.7
15Tyler Lockett682245011105.

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5400)

13@ NYG70957900007.912.910.412.9
14vs LAR61854200004.
15vs GB46735400005.
16PROJ-Dodds4580.30007.611.69.6 (H=15)11.6 (H=25)
16PROJ-Tremblay4590.30007.711.79.7 (H=15)11.7 (H=26)
16PROJ-Bloom4670.50009.713.711.7 (H=21)13.7 (H=34)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4400)

13@ NYG75731700001.
14vs LAR57732200002.
15vs GB46333300003.
16PROJ-Dodds4460.31306.710.78.7 (H=16)10.7 (H=27)
16PROJ-Tremblay4450.31306.610.68.6 (H=16)10.6 (H=27)
16PROJ-Bloom3260.10003.26.24.7 (H=5)6.2 (H=10)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4100)

13@ NYG5721110006.
14vs LAR371000000000.00.0
15vs GB260000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds2260.20003.85.84.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay2220.20103.55.54.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=9)
16PROJ-Bloom2210.30003.95.95.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=10)

Josh Bellamy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ NYG1911800000.
14vs LAR191000000000.00.0
15vs GB14111800001.
16PROJ-Dodds1100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay190.10001.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

49ers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.5)7 (-2.6)7 (-2.2)8 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.8)2 (-6.1)3 (-4.9)2T (-6.2)
12Cameron Brate51432618.611.610.111.6
13Nick Vannett2511400.
14Brian Parker1521500.
15Ed Dickson46221401.

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4000)

13@ NYG671000000.00.0
14vs LAR57522202.
15vs GB46743619.613.611.613.6
16PROJ-Dodds3340. (H=9)8.2 (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay3290. (H=7)7.7 (H=17)
16PROJ-Bloom3280. (H=7)7.6 (H=16)

Adam Shaheen (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ NYG2422516.
14vs LAR220000000.00.0
15vs GB27223903.
16PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

49ers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (+0.3)11T (+0.3)18T (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.9)11T (-0.9)13T (-0.9) (+0.0)
12Cairo Santos22339910.010.0
13Sebastian Janikowski1146778.08.0
14Brandon McManus0022222.02.0
15Sebastian Janikowski1123556.06.0

Cody Parkey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ NYG2233999.09.0
14vs LAR2311777.07.0
15vs GB1133666.06.0

49ers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.5)25T (+2.5)28T (+2.7)28T (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.2)25 (+2.2)25 (+2.7)25 (+2.7)
12Tampa Bay Buccaneers9342420008812.012.0
13Seattle Seahawks1645231201151516.016.0
14Denver Broncos2038931000556.06.0
15Seattle Seahawks2635130100555.05.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

13@ NYG30.0033831000555.05.0
14vs LAR6.0021434010131320.020.0
15vs GB17.0032351000778.08.0
16PROJ-Dodds19.203352.410.800.510.510.510.5 (H=23)10.5 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay19.253502.110.800.510.210.210.2 (H=22)10.2 (H=31)

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.1)3 (-3.1)2 (-2.8)2 (-3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.2)1 (-8.2)1 (-7.3)1 (-8.0)
12Matthew Stafford662838236020009.
13Eli Manning7219351701100011.511.59.89.8
14Jared Goff632044180041505.
15Aaron Rodgers68254227401325015.215.214.514.5

Nick Mullens (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $4700)

13@ SEA7630484142121027.827.823.726.7
14vs DEN722033332215-10022.622.619.322.3
15vs SEA622029275102-2017.617.614.814.8
16PROJ-Dodds21342461.41.1240.117.817.817.8 (H=43)17.8 (H=62)
16PROJ-Tremblay20322411.31330. (H=40)17.1 (H=58)
16PROJ-Bloom19342131.11.4110.114.414.414.4 (H=30)14.4 (H=43)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.2)3 (-5.1)3 (-5.6)4 (-5.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.0)10 (-2.4)11 (-2.0)10 (-2.3)
12LeGarrette Blount33198821115022.323.322.823.3
12Theo Riddick292120774806.013.09.513.0
13Saquon Barkley572412504321014.617.616.120.6
13Wayne Gallman15516021-
14Todd Gurley6211280733005.
14Justin Davis1119000001.
15Jamaal Williams59125515442015.719.717.719.7
15Aaron Jones748000000.

Matt Breida (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4200)

13@ SEA10560335105.
15vs SEA4517500554609.614.612.114.6
16PROJ-Dodds16650.44240.111.915.913.9 (H=31)15.9 (H=57)
16PROJ-Tremblay17760.44330.113.917.915.9 (H=40)17.9 (H=70)
16PROJ-Bloom12410.32210.18.610.69.6 (H=16)10.6 (H=28)

Jeff Wilson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

13@ SEA55156109873013.421.415.420.4
14vs DEN622390021609.610.610.110.6
15vs SEA12746010004.
16PROJ-Dodds8310.21905.26.25.7 (H=7)6.2 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay8310.2170565.5 (H=7)6.0 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom9310.111104.85.85.3 (H=6)5.8 (H=11)

Kyle Juszczyk (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ SEA3900033200253.55.0
14vs DEN42000322102.
15vs SEA4600011300.
16PROJ-Dodds0002150. (H=3)4.1 (H=7)
16PROJ-Tremblay0000400.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)
16PROJ-Bloom0002160. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.2)20 (+1.5)20 (+1.3)22 (+2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.9)15 (-0.8)16 (-1.0)15 (-0.4)
12Kenny Golladay65859000009.014.011.514.0
12Bruce Ellington54762801203.
13Odell Beckham669335100016.
13Russell Shepard72259100011.913.912.913.9
14Robert Woods631376100006.113.19.613.1
14Josh Reynolds63733600003.
15Davante Adams64138119000011.919.917.924.9
15Randall Cobb47733000003.

Dante Pettis (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4300)

13@ SEA717512921-2024.729.727.232.7
14vs DEN617349100010.913.912.413.9
15vs SEA57558300008.313.310.813.3
16PROJ-Dodds4550.30007.311.39.4 (H=17)11.4 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay4570.30007.511.59.6 (H=18)11.6 (H=32)
16PROJ-Bloom5640.40008.813.811.4 (H=25)13.9 (H=44)

Kendrick Bourne (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

13@ SEA67646000006108.010.0
14vs DEN43422200002.
15vs SEA46421600001.
16PROJ-Dodds2230.20003.55.54.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay3300.20004.27.25.7 (H=8)7.2 (H=17)
16PROJ-Bloom2190.10002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=7)

Marquise Goodwin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4000)

14vs DEN2422200000243.04.0
15vs SEA711700000.
16PROJ-Dodds2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay2230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Trent Taylor (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ SEA23111100001.
14vs DEN2321600000.
15vs SEA1521800000.
16PROJ-Dodds1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay1140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom1700000.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.5)12 (-1.9)10 (-1.8)11 (-2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.2)13 (-1.3)11 (-1.7)13 (-1.4)
12Michael Roberts23631601.
13Rhett Ellison68744204.
14Gerald Everett36742902.
15Jimmy Graham47533203.

George Kittle (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6000)

13@ SEA679670071310.013.0
14vs DEN66972101273430.537.0
15vs SEA59835105.
16PROJ-Dodds5700.38.813.811.3 (H=18)13.8 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay5670.38.513.511.0 (H=17)13.5 (H=30)
16PROJ-Bloom5620.381310.5 (H=15)13.0 (H=28)

Garrett Celek (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ SEA160000000.00.0
14vs DEN271000000.00.0
15vs SEA172261112.
16PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay0400.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)
16PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-1.0)4T (-1.0)10 (-0.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.1)22 (+1.1)26T (+2.3) (+0.0)
12Matt Prater1111444.04.0
13Aldrick Rosas3333121215.015.0
14Greg Zuerlein2300668.08.0
15Mason Crosby33009912.012.0

Robbie Gould (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ SEA1111445.05.0
14vs DEN2222889.09.0
15vs SEA4422141415.015.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.2)18 (+0.2)17 (-0.0)17 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.2)25T (+2.2)24 (+2.4)24 (+2.4)
12Detroit Lions2326440100667.07.0
13New York Giants2737652101171717.017.0
14Los Angeles Rams15294130007711.011.0
15Green Bay Packers2432910100333.03.0

San Francisco 49ers (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2000)

13@ SEA43.003313000033-1.0-1.0
14vs DEN14.0027420000223.03.0
15vs SEA23.0038530001999.09.0
16PROJ-Dodds23.603492. (H=22)8.0 (H=36)
16PROJ-Tremblay23.253532.110.700. (H=24)8.5 (H=40)