Matchup Analysis: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: 49ers 18, Seahawks 28

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

San Francisco 49ers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
49ers Offense21.7 (-2.4) (20)135 (+21) (5)220 (-27) (24)
Seahawks Defense22.1 (-2.1) (9)121 (+7) (22)238 (-9) (14)

Seattle Seahawks Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Seahawks Offense25.1 (+0.9) (12)147 (+33) (1)208 (-39) (26)
49ers Defense26.6 (+2.5) (27)103 (-10) (10)247 (+0) (17)

49ers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

Matt Breida continues to lead this 49ers backfield as he looked healthy coming off the bye, rushing for over 100 yards in his second straight game. Breida was explosive in each of his last two games and looks to have a firm grip on his role in this offense as San Francisco is extremely thin at the running back position now that Raheem Mostert’s season came to an end due to injury. Alfred Morris was healthy coming into last week, but he was scratched just before the game. Morris has played very poorly this season despite ample opportunities, so it his lack of involvement in this offense absolutely makes sense. It should be all Breida going forward, who if healthy, is more than capable of leading this backfield running behind an above-average offensive line.

The Seahawks run defense had one of their worst games of the season last week, coughing up a total of 220 rushing yards and a touchdown to the Panthers ground game. Christian McCaffrey’s 125-yard outing marked the third time in four weeks a running back has exceeded 110 rushing yards when facing Seattle. After giving up a rushing touchdown to running backs in just two of their first seven games, the Seahawks have now allowed a rushing touchdown in four straight games. This will be their first meeting of the season with the division rival 49ers, who should have the upper hand in the trenches with a superior offensive line. While the Seahawks linebacking group is thin, they still have Bobby Wagner with hopes of a return from K.J. Wright. If Wright is back, that combination of him and Wagner will help prop this defense up against the run. However, if Wright sits again, this defense may struggle to contain Breida based on the direction the yare trending in.

49ers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

Nick Mullens was beginning to look like a great find at quarterback for the 49ers, but last week, that excitement quickly faded away as Mullens turned in a very poor performance despite what was a great matchup on paper. Mullens completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 221 yards and turned in his second straight game with just one passing touchdown but two interceptions. Despite these back-to-back poor performances, the 49ers have announced Mullens will get the start again this week, which is not something fantasy managers may be looking forward to for this offense. With both Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin sidelined, rookie receiver Dante Pettis is starting to shine as he turned in his best performance of the season last week. Pettis is a smooth route runner, and while he may not have game-breaking speed, he is quick enough to make plenty of plays through traffic for this offense. George Kittle remains the top dog for the 49ers though, regardless of the status of Goodwin and Garcon. Kittle saw another week with double-digit targets, but he could only do so much with inaccurate throws his way last week as he put up his worst statistical game since Week 6. Do keep an eye on the statuses of both Goodwin (personal) and Garcon (knee), as either returning to the lineup would depress the value of Pettis while also helping Mullens by adding more viable targets. Kittle should not be impacted though, as he has shown to be an integral piece of this offense regardless of who else is on the field.

The Seahawks have been average against the pass this season, but plenty of cracks have emerged in this secondary over the past few weeks. Since Week 8, the Seahawks are giving up the ninth and eleventh most fantasy points per game (PPR Scoring) to wide receivers and quarterbacks respectively. Quarterbacks have passed for multiple touchdowns in every game over that span while this secondary has come down with only two interceptions compared to nine in their first six games of this season. The competition, however, has been stiff in recent weeks facing the likes of Jared Goff, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and so on. This week is a different story with a flat 49ers offense coming to town, but these cornerbacks should still allow some production--with a particularly good matchup being Dante Pettis squaring off against Justin Coleman in the slot. Matt Breida has the hands to haul in a few receptions also, and while the Seahawks have Bobby Wagner to help cover running backs over the middle, he can only do so much without K.J. Wright’s talent there to help.

Seahawks Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

The Seahawks tried to lean hard on their ground game again in last week’s game, but they found little success with the team averaging just 2.7 rushing yards per attempt for 75 rushing yards. Chris Carson continues to win the battle for snaps and touches in this backfield as he is the featured running back with Mike Davis working in on third downs and Rashaad Penny involved only to spell Carson. While Carson has battled injuries this season, he is getting spectacular volume when healthy, averaging over 20 rushing attempts per game in this six healthy games since Week 3. Combine this volume with a touchdown in three of his last four games along with a very solid offensive line, and Carson remains a reliable option at the position. Russell Wilson also remains a threat on the ground despite his inconsistent numbers with just 21 rushing yards in the past two weeks after back to back outings with 41 and 92 rushing yards in Weeks 9 and 10.

The 49ers continue to play very well against the run despite their injury woes on defense. They caught a nice break last week with safety Jaquiski Tartt, their top run-defending defensive back, returning to the lineup. On the other hand, the 49ers will now lose a critical piece of their defense as they released young linebacker Reuben Foster, which should lead to an increase in playing time for second-year linebacker Elijah Lee. Foster had plenty of issues both on and off the field and was battling injuries throughout this season, which ultimately helped lead to his dismissal. The 49ers have what is shaping up to be an elite young talent remaining in this group though, as Fred Warner has shown to be one of the best middle linebackers in football over the past few weeks. While the loss of Foster is tough, if Warner can keep up this level of play along with sustained production from this talented interior defensive line, the 49ers should continue to be a challenging unit to face off against--even for an equally talented Seahawks offensive line.

Seahawks Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

Russell Wilson had an opportunity to shine last week, and he did just that with his first outing of over 300 passing yards while extending his streak of games with multiple passing touchdowns to seven in a row. Wilson put together some artful drives with his precise passing ability, particularly on the deep ball, as he connected on multiple occasions with both Tyler Lockett and David Moore. Lockett has seen his usage actually increase in recent weeks as his play has been improving. Lockett now has five receptions in three straight games while he posted a season-high 107 receiving yards along with his eighth touchdown in last week’s game. David Moore also ended with a season-high 103 yards and a touchdown despite playing just half of the snaps. Doug Baldwin was missed in the end zone by Wilson for the second straight week in his last game as he turned in a bust of a performance, making for two five-catch, 39-yard outings in his last three games. Baldwin is not being used as he has in previous seasons, and his floor appears to be dreadfully low right now.

The 49ers have been decent against the pass this season with middling stats in both passing yards allowed per game and per attempt. Until last week, they hadn’t allowed a quarterback to pass for more than 300 yards since Aaron Rodgers in Week 6. This secondary did not look great against the Buccaneers though as Jameis Winston picked them apart, particularly focusing on the side of Richard Sherman who was outplayed by Mike Evans. The play of Richard Sherman has regressed in recent weeks, but he still presents an above-average challenge for the typical receiver and will not be an easy matchup for either Lockett or Moore. K’Waun Williams is playing well out of the slot right now also, which should not make Baldwin’s life easy this week. While the Seahawks do not target their running backs often, linebacker Fred Warner can help combat against any threat of pass-catching running backs while also helping to keep the Seahawks tight ends in check. The 49ers did officially release Reuben Foster at linebacker, but Foster had not been great in coverage anyway this season as Fred Warner has been the primary playmaker for that unit.

Seahawks vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.9)8 (-2.0)5 (-2.2)9 (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.1)22 (+2.0)23 (+2.0)22 (+2.6)
9Philip Rivers5113262282000019.419.417.117.1
10Jared Goff6528393182033024.
11Aaron Rodgers4921303322013024.924.921.624.6
12Cam Newton59253025621863026.126.123.523.5

Nick Mullens (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4700)

10vs NYG7327392501221014.614.612.112.1
12@ TB641832221122-10131310.710.7
13PROJ-Dodds21342351.21.2270.116.716.716.7 (H=42)16.7 (H=55)
13PROJ-Tremblay12201420.70.6280.110.710.710.7 (H=19)10.7 (H=25)
13PROJ-Bloom19332121.21.700013.713.713.7 (H=30)13.7 (H=39)

Seahawks vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.7)19 (+0.8)19 (+0.3)21 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.1)26 (+5.3)27 (+5.3)30 (+7.6)
9Melvin Gordon451611314110018.319.318.822.3
9Austin Ekeler93210211303.
10Todd Gurley581612014340022.025.023.528.0
10Malcolm Brown8000111001.
11Aaron Jones44114016563122.327.324.827.3
11Jamaal Williams415000000.
12Christian McCaffrey591712511111112135.746.741.252.7
12Cameron Artis-Payne100000000.

Matt Breida (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5800)

10vs NYG441710114331125.228.226.731.2
12@ TB3114106043340141715.520.0
13PROJ-Dodds17830.43210.113.416.414.9 (H=33)16.4 (H=43)
13PROJ-Tremblay19930.44280. (H=42)19.1 (H=57)
13PROJ-Bloom16710.43280.112.915.914.4 (H=31)15.9 (H=41)

Jeff Wilson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ TB25733011804.

Kyle Juszczyk (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

10vs NYG46130221001.
12@ TB380000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds13021501.83.82.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay1301801.12.11.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=2)
13PROJ-Bloom0002130. (H=2)3.9 (H=6)

Alfred Morris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs NYG14919010001.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay5230.11303.24.23.7 (H=4)4.2 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Seahawks vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.6)17 (+1.2)17 (+0.9)17 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+3.9)23 (+5.0)22 (+4.5)23 (+6.2)
9Keenan Allen431061240228015.
9Mike Williams15313010009.010.09.510.0
10Brandin Cooks631210100019116.926.921.929.9
10Robert Woods6454890317010.614.612.614.6
11Davante Adams461210166000016.626.621.629.6
11Equanimeous St. Brown43411600001.
12Curtis Samuel5422171125010.
12D.J. Moore54989101709.817.813.817.8

Marquise Goodwin (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $5200)

10vs NYG61546900006.910.98.910.9
13PROJ-Dodds3380.2000586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=14)
13PROJ-Tremblay2360.2020576.0 (H=8)7.0 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom3440.30006.29.27.7 (H=13)9.2 (H=17)

Dante Pettis (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs NYG41641200001.
12@ TB587477100013.717.715.717.7
13PROJ-Dodds3330.10003.96.95.5 (H=7)7.0 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay2270.10003.35.34.4 (H=4)5.4 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom4440.20005.69.67.7 (H=12)9.7 (H=26)

Kendrick Bourne (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

10vs NYG69743300003.
12@ TB56322700002.
13PROJ-Dodds2240.20003.65.64.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay3300.20004.27.25.7 (H=8)7.2 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom2220.10002.84.83.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)

Pierre Garcon (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3900)

13PROJ-Dodds2220.10002.84.83.8 (H=3)4.8 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay2190.10002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Richie James (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NYG50000000000.00.0
12@ TB31222700002.
13PROJ-Dodds1110.10001.72.72.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay0500000.50.50.6 (H=0)0.6 (H=0)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Trent Taylor (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

10vs NYG7111200001.
12@ TB90000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds190.10001.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay190.10001.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Seahawks vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.9)6T (-3.1)8T (-2.5)6T (-3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.0)15 (-1.6)16 (-0.7)15 (-1.6)
9Virgil Green34322802.
10Tyler Higbee50332518.511.510.011.5
11Robert Tonyan31154111.412.411.912.4
12Greg Olsen58421101.

George Kittle (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5900)

10vs NYG711098308.317.312.817.3
12@ TB601264805.811.88.811.8
13PROJ-Dodds5700.38.813.811.3 (H=19)13.8 (H=31)
13PROJ-Tremblay5680.38.613.611.1 (H=19)13.6 (H=31)
13PROJ-Bloom5610.48.513.511.0 (H=18)13.5 (H=30)

Seahawks vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-0.8)15T (-0.8)11T (-1.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.3)15 (+0.3)11T (-0.5) (+0.0)
9Caleb Sturgis0113111.01.0
10Greg Zuerlein3333121212.012.0
11Mason Crosby1233666.06.0
12Graham Gano2333999.09.0

Robbie Gould (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs NYG3322111113.013.0
12@ TB1101333.03.0

Seahawks vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.6)11 (-0.6)16T (-0.9)16T (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.3)21 (+0.3)16T (+0.0)16T (+0.0)
9Los Angeles Chargers1735641001121213.013.0
10Los Angeles Rams3141440100665.05.0
11Green Bay Packers2737830100555.05.0
12Carolina Panthers3039720000221.01.0

San Francisco 49ers (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2000)

10vs NYG27.0027710000111.01.0
12@ TB27.0041210000111.01.0
13PROJ-Dodds28.303722.20.70.600.3666.0 (H=13)6.0 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay28.003411.80.70.600. (H=13)6.2 (H=23)

49ers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.6)20 (+0.5)23 (+1.0)23 (+1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.6)9 (-2.7)10 (-2.1)10 (-2.0)
9Derek Carr471621171003509.
10Eli Manning5919311883000021.421.419.519.5
12Jameis Winston73293831220724026.026.022.925.9

Russell Wilson (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6300)

10@ LAR681726176309920303026.227.2
11vs GB70213122520517019.920.918.118.6
12@ CAR6222313392034025.425.422.025.0
13PROJ-Dodds193023820.64240.122.322.322.3 (H=56)22.3 (H=68)
13PROJ-Tremblay17272071.80.74180. (H=43)19.2 (H=53)
13PROJ-Bloom162319720.54220.220.820.820.8 (H=49)20.8 (H=60)

49ers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.4)18 (+0.3)17 (+0.1)16 (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.8)8 (-5.5)7 (-5.5)8 (-6.2)
9Doug Martin2611490212006.
9Jalen Richard22240444504.
10Saquon Barkley54206705433010.
10Elijhaa Penny7000221201.
12Peyton Barber36184712216012.314.313.314.3
12Jacquizz Rodgers345310543106.

Chris Carson (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5200)

11vs GB2917831000014.314.312.313.3
12@ CAR3216551228012.314.313.314.3
13PROJ-Dodds15670.6111011.412.411.9 (H=23)12.4 (H=30)
13PROJ-Tremblay17690.6111011.612.612.1 (H=23)12.6 (H=30)
13PROJ-Bloom16750.7170.1131413.5 (H=28)14.0 (H=37)

Rashaad Penny (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

10@ LAR27121081000016.816.816.819.8
11vs GB17846000004.
12@ CAR1044000000.
13PROJ-Dodds6230.21403.94.94.5 (H=5)5.0 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay6250.20003.73.73.8 (H=4)3.8 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom8430.30006.16.16.2 (H=9)6.2 (H=13)

Mike Davis (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3800)

10@ LAR391158064221141816.018.0
11vs GB22426022240576.07.0
12@ CAR18414010001.
13PROJ-Dodds4170.121003.35.34.3 (H=5)5.3 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay4170.12150. (H=7)6.4 (H=13)
13PROJ-Bloom5240.1180. (H=6)5.4 (H=9)

49ers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.1)18 (+1.4)21 (+1.9)18 (+1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.9)19 (+0.7)20 (+0.9)19 (+0.7)
9Martavis Bryant212229011704.
9Brandon LaFell53332000002.
10Odell Beckham5611473200019.323.321.323.3
10Sterling Shepard56329112709.611.610.611.6
12Mike Evans5886116000011.617.614.620.6
12Adam Humphries386654100011.417.414.417.4

Tyler Lockett (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5800)

10@ LAR5965671118014.519.517.019.5
11vs GB53557101107.212.29.712.2
12@ CAR555510711-2016.521.519.024.5
13PROJ-Dodds5660.614010.615.613.3 (H=26)15.8 (H=41)
13PROJ-Tremblay3420.41507.110.18.8 (H=12)10.3 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom3550.7130101311.7 (H=21)13.2 (H=30)

Doug Baldwin (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5500)

10@ LAR67553900003.
11vs GB6210752100011.218.214.718.2
12@ CAR56753900003.
13PROJ-Dodds4480.40007.211.29.2 (H=15)11.2 (H=23)
13PROJ-Tremblay4430.30006.110.18.1 (H=12)10.1 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom5450.50007.512.510.0 (H=17)12.5 (H=28)

David Moore (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4300)

10@ LAR45311600001.
11vs GB40845700005.
12@ CAR3154103100016.320.318.323.3
13PROJ-Dodds3450.40006.99.98.4 (H=12)9.9 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay3450.40006.99.98.4 (H=12)9.9 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom3440.40006.89.88.3 (H=12)9.8 (H=24)

49ers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.5)12 (-1.1)12 (-0.9)14 (-0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.6)12 (-3.5)12 (-3.0)12 (-3.5)
9Jared Cook34222002.
10Evan Engram36544604.
12Cameron Brate51432618.611.610.111.6

Nick Vannett (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2600)

10@ LAR4121816.
11vs GB42211701.
12@ CAR25222202.
13PROJ-Dodds2260. (H=6)5.8 (H=16)
13PROJ-Tremblay3250. (H=8)7.3 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Ed Dickson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ LAR24112402.
11vs GB30111517.
12@ CAR44221301.
13PROJ-Dodds1190. (H=2)3.5 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)

49ers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26T (+1.0)26T (+1.0)21T (+0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (+0.3)15T (+0.3)15 (-0.2) (+0.0)
9Daniel Carlson1200333.03.0
10Aldrick Rosas2233999.09.0
12Cairo Santos22339910.010.0

Sebastian Janikowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ LAR1144777.07.0
11vs GB22339910.010.0
12@ CAR3333121212.012.0

49ers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.6)30 (+2.6)27T (+3.0)27T (+3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.9)8 (-1.9)13 (-1.0)13 (-1.0)
9Oakland Raiders344050000000-1.0-1.0
10New York Giants2337402000444.04.0
12Tampa Bay Buccaneers9342420008812.012.0

Seattle Seahawks (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

10@ LAR36.004562000022-2.0-2.0
11vs GB24.0035950000555.05.0
12@ CAR27.0047601000222.02.0
13PROJ-Dodds18.503552.41.10.800.510.910.910.9 (H=27)10.9 (H=36)
13PROJ-Tremblay18.003692.11.10.900.510.810.810.8 (H=26)10.8 (H=36)