Matchup Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Ravens 24, Falcons 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense24.6 (+0.5) (15)122 (+8) (11)252 (+4) (14)
Falcons Defense27.9 (+3.8) (29)124 (+10) (25)273 (+25) (26)

Atlanta Falcons Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Falcons Offense25.5 (+1.3) (11)83 (-30) (31)317 (+68) (4)
Ravens Defense18.0 (-6.2) (1)92 (-21) (3)203 (-44) (2)

Ravens Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

The Ravens – and fantasy players – are holding their breath as they await word on rookie Gus Edwards’ ankle injury. Johnson has taken the NFL by storm, racking up 233 yards at 5.83 per attempt over his first 2 weeks as the lead runner. But he surprisingly missed Wednesday’s practice, and if he can’t get back on the field by Friday, he’ll likely sit this week out. That would be devastating for the run-oriented Ravens, who watched Alex Collins and Javorius Allen slog to just 3.42 over the season’s first 9 weeks. Johnson isn’t much of an athlete, but he’s exceptionally powerful at 238 pounds and has served as the offensive engine over the past 2 weeks. His bulldozing style fits much better behind road-grading guard Marshal Yanda than that of Collins, who doesn’t run with much power, or the team’s passing-down specialists. If Edwards can suit up Sunday, he’ll face a mouthwatering matchup as he looks to solidify his role. If he can’t, it’s safe to expect more low-impact, “three yards and a cloud of dust” running from the rest of the crew. Collins himself is battling a nagging foot injury, so this attack could be dominated by quarterback Lamar Jackson for at least a week. Jackson has been outstanding as a runner (190 yards on 37 attempts), but the team needs a deep-back presence to some degree. It’s not hard to find ground success against the Falcons, but the Ravens could struggle if forced to lean on the bottom of their depth chart.

The Falcons shouldn’t be this bad on run defense. They boast strong interior play on the line: Grady Jarrett has played at a Pro Bowl level all year, while Jack Crawford’s play has picked up over the course of the season. But with so much uncertainty behind them at linebacker, every opponent’s carry is an adventure. Running backs are averaging 4.97 yards per attempt on the year, and 6.31 over the last 3 weeks. It’s unlikely the return of Deion Jones, if that happens this week will solve all of their problems. Jones is a fine linebacker but is more impactful in pass coverage than as a gap-plugging run stuffer. If nothing else, he’ll at least keep Duke Riley off the field on running downs. Riley has been a disaster in Jones’ place, frequently misreading runs and finding himself washed out of plays. Regardless of Jones’ status, there are few more enticing matchups in football right now than this one.

Ravens Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

Lamar Jackson seemed to take a small but noticeable step forward in his second NFL start – or maybe it just looked that way against the Raiders’ pitiful defense. Jackson threw 2 interceptions and took a handful of bad penalties, but also showcased his deep arm with a bit more confidence than the previous week. He found rookie tight end Mark Andrews down the seam for a 74-yard completion, then hit John Brown for a 48-yarder that was called back. At the moment, Jackson is little more than a physical specimen in the Michael Vick/Vince Young mold. He often looks lost in the pocket and makes oddball decisions, but his cannon arm and aggressive mentality force defenses to respect the pass at least a little bit. His presence does, however, ding the fantasy value of his receivers. Brown and Michael Crabtree have posted a combined 6 receptions for 76 yards over the past 2 weeks as the Ravens scramble to rebuild their offense in Jackson’s image. The youngster brings plenty of fantasy appeal in other ways, but as a passer remains raw and limited at the moment, and the Baltimore air attack is squarely on hold.

As bad as the Falcons have been against the run, their pass defense has somehow looked even worse. They’ve allowed 6 opponents to post 300 yards through the air, and that doesn’t even account for the handful that have merely carved them up with low volume. Simply put, they can’t cover anyone at the moment, and opposing quarterbacks have little trouble finding their marks downfield. On the year they’re allowing 70% completions and 7.2 net yards per attempt, both sixth-worst in the league, and have given up 25 touchdowns. With very little pass rush and a banged-up, talent-starved secondary, there’s no end in sight for their struggles. Lamar Jackson may be in for his first efficient game as an NFL passer.

Falcons Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

The Falcons’ hopes for a consistent ground attack went out the window when Devonta Freeman landed on injured reserve. Tevin Coleman remains an impact runner; he’s one of the league’s speediest backs and always a chunk-play threat. But he’s simply not cut out for bell cow work. Lacking in power and elusiveness, Coleman doesn’t bring the versatile presence to the table that Freeman typically does. He’s seen his volume dwindle consistently for weeks and now cedes a decent amount of work to rookie Ito Smith. Smith has topped 25 ground yards just once over the past 7 games, averaging an anemic 2.76 per carry along the way. Neither boasts much of an outlook behind the Falcons’ disappointing line, which is missing both starting guards and remains relatively weak on the outside. This unit can count on the occasional big run, but not much down-by-down consistency to fill in the gaps.

Baltimore’s run defense remains a downright dominant unit that fantasy owners don’t like to test. The Ravens have allowed only 2 runners (Joe Mixon and James Conner) to top 65 ground yards in a game, and backs in general have produced just 3.50 per attempt, third-best in football. Along the way they’ve shut down the likes of LeSean McCoy (7 carries for 22 yards), Christian McCaffrey (14 for 45), and the Saints’ dynamic duo (29 for 96). They’ve also gotten sweet revenge on Mixon (12 for 14 in the Week 11 rematch) and stifled Conner (9 for 19) in their first matchup with the Steelers. With top lineman Brandon Williams still an underrated dominator at the point of attack and C.J. Mosley one of the NFL’s most dependable tacklers, it’s never easy to project much production in this matchup.

Falcons Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

If the Falcons weren’t 4-7, Matt Ryan would be a frontrunner for NFL MVP. He’s actually been even better, at least by fantasy measures, than in his actual MVP season of 2016. He leads the league in per-game yardage (335) and sits sixth per attempt (8.49), and has thrown 24 touchdowns through 11 games. He deserves a lot of the credit, but some needs to be reserved for his arsenal of weapons, which finally looks diverse and well-rounded. Julio Jones is Julio Jones; he continues to dominate secondaries left and right and is actually in the midst of the best season of his brilliant career. He’s posting personal bests in catch rate (67.2%) and yards per game (119), and even touchdowns are coming his way (3 over the last 4 weeks). Rookie Calvin Ridley has exceeded expectations as a dynamic target on all levels of the field – he’s a big reason Jones is finding more room than usual down the field. Slot man Mohamed Sanu remains dependable over the middle, and tight end Austin Hooper, who’s always flashed as an underneath mismatch, is enjoying a career year of his own (55 receptions). This is a difficult unit to stop and can be trusted to produce on even the worst of the Falcons’ days.

The Baltimore pass defense has been arguably the NFL’s best over the past two months. They’ve given up just 6.52 yards per attempt over their last 6 outings, which have included dates with Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Ben Roethlisberger. Outside wideouts are struggling the most, as cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Marlon Humphrey are excelling at funneling low-impact throws to slot men and running backs. Michael Thomas (69 yards on 9 targets), Devin Funchess (27 on 3), and Antonio Brown (42 on 11) have struggled mightily to make things happen down the field against this imposing secondary.

Falcons vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.5)31 (+4.5)31 (+4.5)31 (+5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.1)16 (+0.1)19 (+0.6)18 (+0.4)
9Alex Smith69304630611122020.520.517.420.4
10Baker Mayfield53172021630620024.824.822.622.6
11Dak Prescott6422322080045116.916.914.814.8
12Drew Brees571522171414-4023.223.221.421.4

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $5900)

11vs CIN7913191500127117018.218.216.719.7
12vs OAK7014251781211711242422.222.2
13PROJ-Dodds15241731.10.911550.420.120.120.1 (H=48)20.1 (H=61)
13PROJ-Tremblay16271801.10.811520.319.619.619.6 (H=46)19.6 (H=58)
13PROJ-Bloom20292091.41.210540.523.223.223.2 (H=61)23.2 (H=78)

Falcons vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.2)30 (+6.8)29 (+6.0)31 (+7.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.8)28 (+6.0)28 (+5.5)28 (+6.8)
9Kapri Bibbs213201111509.510.510.010.5
9Adrian Peterson329170331603.
10Nick Chubb422017613333132.935.934.438.9
10Duke Johnson1731504431110.614.612.614.6
11Ezekiel Elliott562312218779026.133.129.636.1
11Rod Smith810022800.
12Alvin Kamara371489011909.810.810.310.8
12Mark Ingram2711520221406.

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4800)

11vs CIN49171151000017.517.519.522.5
12vs OAK43231180000011.811.811.814.8
13PROJ-Dodds16730.500010.310.310.3 (H=17)10.3 (H=23)
13PROJ-Tremblay16740.40109.99.99.9 (H=16)9.9 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom16760.500010.610.610.6 (H=18)10.6 (H=24)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3600)

11vs CIN905000000.
12vs OAK288510331306.
13PROJ-Dodds4200.321305.17.16.1 (H=8)7.1 (H=16)
13PROJ-Tremblay7300.2180565.5 (H=7)6.0 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom5240.12603.65.64.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=10)

Javorius Allen (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3200)

11vs CIN512000000.
12vs OAK112000000.
13PROJ-Dodds260.11601.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay280.12130. (H=5)5.3 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom1200000.20.20.2 (H=0)0.2 (H=0)

Alex Collins (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $3900)

11vs CIN17718100007.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay6230.20203.73.73.7 (H=3)3.7 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Falcons vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.2)24 (+3.1)26 (+3.1)24 (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.1)9 (-5.5)11 (-4.2)11 (-5.7)
9Maurice Harris601210124000012.422.417.425.4
9Josh Doctson68633110009.112.110.612.1
10Rashard Higgins22112810008.
10Antonio Callaway39223900003.
11Cole Beasley42755100005.110.17.610.1
11Amari Cooper51533600003.
12TommyLee Lewis28112810008.
12Austin Carr18111210007.

John Brown (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4400)

11vs CIN51112301002.
12vs OAK45712500002.
13PROJ-Dodds2370.30005.57.56.5 (H=10)7.5 (H=14)
13PROJ-Tremblay2330.20104.66.65.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom4610.40008.512.510.5 (H=24)12.5 (H=36)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

11vs CIN53855100005.110.17.610.1
12vs OAK490000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=18)
13PROJ-Tremblay3390.20105.28.26.7 (H=11)8.2 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom4390.20005.19.17.1 (H=12)9.1 (H=22)

Michael Crabtree (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4400)

11vs CIN5331700000.
12vs OAK47632110008.111.19.611.1
13PROJ-Dodds3380.2000586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=16)
13PROJ-Tremblay3330.20004.57.56.0 (H=8)7.5 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom4350.40005.99.97.9 (H=13)9.9 (H=24)

Chris Moore (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs CIN28111401802.
12vs OAK2511100000.
13PROJ-Dodds190.10001.52.52.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay1100.10301.92.92.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom1150.10002.13.12.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)

Falcons vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.6)15 (-0.4)15 (-0.5)15 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.7)16 (-1.6)15 (-1.6)16 (-1.6)
9Vernon Davis32756206.211.28.711.2
10David Njoku35111801.
11Geoff Swaim57542402.
12Dan Arnold126445110.514.512.514.5

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs CIN53443603.
12vs OAK51221901.
13PROJ-Dodds1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs CIN25111901.
12vs OAK18117407.
13PROJ-Dodds1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay2190. (H=3)4.5 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs CIN350000000.00.0
12vs OAK19432502.
13PROJ-Dodds1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom2210. (H=4)4.7 (H=11)

Falcons vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-0.8)7T (-0.8)7T (-1.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.0)10 (-1.0)10 (-1.0) (+0.0)
9Dustin Hopkins0022222.02.0
10Greg Joseph0044444.04.0
11Brett Maher3312101013.013.0
12Wil Lutz1144777.07.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs CIN3311101012.012.0
12vs OAK2244101011.011.0

Falcons vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.1)16T (-0.1)11T (-0.9)11T (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.3)24 (+1.3)21 (+1.5)21 (+1.5)
9Washington Redskins3849121000440.00.0
10Cleveland Browns1638220200669.09.0
11Dallas Cowboys1935431000556.06.0
12New Orleans Saints1736661300141415.015.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2800)

11vs CIN21.0025510000111.01.0
12vs OAK17.0024930102171718.018.0
13PROJ-Dodds23.303622.40.80.700. (H=18)8.3 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay25.003812.40.90.600. (H=17)7.9 (H=25)

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.9)3 (-2.9)4 (-2.4)4 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.2)15 (-0.3)14 (-0.5)13 (-1.1)
9Ben Roethlisberger8028472702024127.927.925.225.2
11Andy Dalton55193621120229021.521.519.319.3
12Derek Carr5616341941000013.713.79.810.8

Matt Ryan (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $5600)

10@ CLE75385233020313025.825.820.524.5
11vs DAL5624342911111017.717.714.714.7
12@ NO70354737721216027.527.521.725.7
13PROJ-Dodds25392791.80.8280.121.721.721.7 (H=48)21.7 (H=73)
13PROJ-Tremblay24372861.80.9290. (H=50)22.1 (H=76)
13PROJ-Bloom24382872.11140.122.722.722.7 (H=52)22.7 (H=79)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.1)2 (-7.1)2 (-6.3)1 (-7.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-3.1)13 (-1.8)12 (-2.3)14 (-1.4)
9James Conner682410709756122.329.325.832.3
9Jaylen Samuels612000000.
11Joe Mixon34121413338011.214.212.714.2
11Giovani Bernard26250442002.
12Doug Martin28115114321013.216.214.716.2
12DeAndre Washington838011901.

Tevin Coleman (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4500)

10@ CLE4911440531906.
11vs DAL348580332708.511.510.011.5
12@ NO35860431718.311.39.811.3
13PROJ-Dodds13500.33240.3111412.5 (H=25)14.0 (H=42)
13PROJ-Tremblay12480.33210.29.912.911.4 (H=21)12.9 (H=37)
13PROJ-Bloom9320.23250.38.711.710.2 (H=18)11.7 (H=31)

Ito Smith (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

10@ CLE224110541502.
11vs DAL206100221202.
12@ NO2640022700.
13PROJ-Dodds7270.321205.77.76.7 (H=11)7.7 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay8310.321206.18.17.1 (H=12)8.1 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom5100.2280. (H=5)5.6 (H=11)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.8)2 (-6.6)3 (-5.7)2 (-7.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-6.8)6 (-8.7)6 (-7.7)6 (-9.7)
9Antonio Brown8111542100010.215.212.715.2
9JuJu Smith-Schuster77977800007.814.811.314.8
11John Ross51722710008.710.79.710.7
11Tyler Boyd521147100007.
12Seth Roberts393254011106.
12Marcell Ateman471031600001.

Julio Jones (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $7700)

10@ CLE73117107100016.723.720.226.7
11vs DAL5196118100017.823.820.826.8
12@ NO621411147011014.825.818.327.8
13PROJ-Dodds7970.400012.119.115.6 (H=27)19.1 (H=42)
13PROJ-Tremblay71000.401012.519.516.0 (H=28)19.5 (H=44)
13PROJ-Bloom7940.500012.419.415.9 (H=28)19.4 (H=44)

Calvin Ridley (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5400)

10@ CLE5353370130475.57.0
11vs DAL40433201503.
12@ NO5213893100015.323.317.322.3
13PROJ-Dodds4460.41307.311.39.3 (H=14)11.3 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay4480.41307.511.59.5 (H=15)11.5 (H=25)
13PROJ-Bloom5670.50009.714.712.2 (H=23)14.7 (H=38)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4300)

10@ CLE70864700004.710.75.79.7
11vs DAL51645601305.
12@ NO57447401307.711.79.711.7
13PROJ-Dodds4430.20005.59.57.5 (H=12)9.5 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay3420.20205.68.67.1 (H=11)8.6 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom4570.31307.811.89.8 (H=19)11.8 (H=33)

Marvin Hall (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ CLE6111200001.
11vs DAL800001300.
12@ NO122000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1900000.91.91.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay180.10101.52.52.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Justin Hardy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ CLE1011700000.
11vs DAL100000000000.00.0
12@ NO1021600000.
13PROJ-Dodds1700000.71.71.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
13PROJ-Tremblay180.10001.42.42.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.8)19 (+1.4)18 (+0.9)18 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.2)22 (+2.0)22 (+2.2)22 (+2.0)
9Jesse James35325305.
11Matt Lengel611416.
12Jared Cook32523219.

Austin Hooper (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3900)

10@ CLE61111056111.621.616.621.6
11vs DAL47842702.
12@ NO48553103.
13PROJ-Dodds4370. (H=11)9.5 (H=25)
13PROJ-Tremblay4360. (H=11)9.4 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom4360.46108.0 (H=12)10.0 (H=27)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-1.8)3 (-1.8)3T (-2.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.4)5T (-2.4)3 (-2.9) (+0.0)
9Chris Boswell1123555.05.0
11Randy Bullock0133333.03.0
12Daniel Carlson1122556.06.0

Matt Bryant (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ CLE0000000.00.0
11vs DAL4411131317.017.0
12@ NO1122555.05.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-2.0)3T (-2.0)10 (-1.5)10 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.2)7 (-2.2)8 (-2.3)8 (-2.3)
9Pittsburgh Steelers1626520000223.03.0
11Cincinnati Bengals2440321000444.04.0
12Oakland Raiders3441612000554.04.0

Atlanta Falcons (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2400)

10@ CLE28.0042701000221.01.0
11vs DAL22.0032320000222.02.0
12@ NO31.0031221000443.03.0
13PROJ-Dodds25.6037020.80.600.4777.0 (H=16)7.0 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay24.003741.70.80.700. (H=18)7.4 (H=26)