Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Rams 32, Lions 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Los Angeles Rams Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Rams Offense35.4 (+11.2) (3)139 (+25) (2)309 (+61) (5)
Lions Defense26.0 (+1.8) (24)117 (+3) (19)238 (-9) (13)

Detroit Lions Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Lions Offense21.6 (-2.5) (21)101 (-12) (23)241 (-6) (15)
Rams Defense25.6 (+1.5) (20)120 (+6) (21)253 (+4) (19)

Rams Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Lions defense.

Todd Gurley and the Rams run game continue to excel at every turn. Running behind arguably football’s best line (our Matt Bitonti currently ranks it first, with an A+ run-blocking grade), Gurley has already breezed past 1,000 yards for the year, averaging a robust 4.97 per rush along the way. In fact, he hasn’t been held below 4.20 for a game since Week 5. In the much-awaited shootout with Kansas City 2 weeks ago, Gurley’s running was all but schemed out of the game, but he still turned 12 carries into 55 yards. Gurley’s blend of power, quickness, and speed are simply too much for defenses to control when they’re already defending against a productive, star-studded passing game.

The Detroit run defense has surged over the past month, going from one of the NFL’s weakest to one of the toughest. Over the last 4 weeks, aside from a 70-yard run by Dalvin Cook, they’ve allowed opposing runners to rack up just 167 yards on 62 attempts (2.69 per rush). The main reason for the turnaround is clear: the team’s October trade for run-plugger Damon Harrison. Harrison is a true difference-maker up front, one capable of both tying up interior blockers and shutting down runs himself. But he’s been joined by a few breakouts up front, including fellow tackle DaShawn Hand and end Ricky Jean-Francois, who are holding their own nicely against the run. Their presence has been huge for second-year middle linebacker Jarrad Davis, who still looks lost far too often, but has less to work through with a dominating line up front.

Rams Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Lions defense.

Jared Goff has presided over a truly dominant passing game here in 2018. It’s been so good, in fact, that not even the loss of slot receiver extraordinaire Cooper Kupp looks to ding its outlook too badly. Kupp will be missed, but Goff still throws to an embarrassment of riches. On a given snap, he can choose from dynamic outside men Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, running back Todd Gurley, and a handful of talented supporting guys. Woods is a wildly underrated in-out receiver who can win downfield or underneath, while the explosive Cooks has averaged 99 yards per game over the last 4 weeks. Goff has thrown for 295 yards or more in each of those games, with 12 touchdowns, and didn’t miss a beat without Kupp in the Week 11 shootout with Kansas City (413 and 4 scores). With Gurley coming out of the backfield and jump-ball specialist Josh Reynolds in the mix, there is so much dynamism in this attack that Goff almost can’t help posting huge fantasy numbers. He and his main cast are top weekly plays regardless of matchup or game projections.

The Detroit pass defense continues to struggle mightily. Opponents are completing 69% of their throws and posting 7.3 net yards per attempt, sixth-most in football. Over the past 3 weeks, they’ve allowed huge days to Mitchell Trubisky (355 yards and 3 touchdowns) and Cam Newton (357 and 3), and even Trubisky’s replacement Chase Daniel had an easy Thanksgiving (27 of 37 for 230 and 2). The pass rush has been weak, but the main culprit is the secondary, which is manned by banged-up top cornerback Darius Slay and a host of mediocre names. Nevin Lawson and Teez Tabor have been burned consistently throughout the year, both down the field and on shorter, yards-after-catch routes. Perhaps undrafted rookie Mike Ford, who showed well on Thanksgiving, will steal more snaps from Tabor and bring more resistance. Until there’s more consistency on the back end, though, this unit should be treated as one of the NFL’s weakest.

Lions Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Rams defense.

The Lions are hoping that explosive rookie Kerryon Johnson can return to action this week. Johnson has dazzled thus far, averaging 5.43 yards over 118 carries and topping 70 in 4 of his 10 appearances. But a knee sprain cost him Thanksgiving, and if he can’t suit up, the Lions will again go with LeGarrette Blount in the lead role. The 31-year-old was surprisingly effective on Thanksgiving, charging through the Bears’ stout run defense for 88 yards and 2 scores on 19 attempts. But prior to that, he’d managed just 2.35 yards per rush on the year, serving mainly as a short-yardage specialist. Johnson brings elements to the offense that Blount simply can’t, and he represents the Lions’ best chance at taking advantage of a Rams front that’s vulnerable to quick-footed runners. Either will run behind a run-blocking line that’s fairly stout, especially on the interior.hargin

The Rams run defense should be much better than it is. Led by a front line that includes all-world dominator Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, one would expect this unit to hold tight up front and shut down opposing run games. Unfortunately, the linebacking crew has been so weak that, once a runner does crest the line, he often has plenty of room on the next level. Mark Barron continues to struggle mightily in run defense, while Cory Littleton is a special-teamer who’s stretched as a full-time defender. As a result, running backs are averaging 4.90 yards per rush, and each of the last 4 lead runners they’ve faced has produced at least 70 on the day. If Kerryon Johnson is playing, this would be upgraded to a good matchup, but as it stands now, LeGarrette Blount is hard to trust with against this defensive line.

Lions Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Rams defense.

Run down by the Golden Tate trade and an injury to Marvin Jones, the Detroit pass game is sputtering majorly right now. Matthew Stafford dearly misses Tate’s versatility and reliability underneath: over 4 games since the trade, he’s been sacked 19 times and thrown just 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, landing below 240 yards in 3 of those. There’s simply not much dynamism to work with while Jones is out, and most of this attack is centered on contested throws to Kenny Golladay and dump-offs to Theo Riddick. Golladay has done his part (82 yards a game since the trade), and Jones has a chance to return in Week 13, but there are huge problems here that the outside guys can’t solve alone. Saddled with poor pass blocking and stale play-calling, Stafford has been reduced to a desperate, “throw it up for grabs” mentality that just isn’t producing.

The Rams pass defense is star-studded, but has underperformed majorly throughout 2018. They’ve now allowed 5 quarterbacks to top 300 yards through the air, and only 8 teams have given up more net yards per attempt. The team desperately needs Aqib Talib to return soon, and to play at a high level, because these cornerbacks have been losing one-on-one matchups down the field all year. Marcus Peters has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, and he hasn’t looked like even a solid NFL cornerback in months. He’s been a big reason that wide receivers have posted seven touchdowns against the Rams over the past three weeks, and moving him inside on Travis Kelce in Week 11 didn’t go well, either. Still, the biggest vulnerability has been on the other side, where Sam Shields has been a sieve in place of Talib. Even with Aaron Donald (14.5 sacks) terrorizing pockets, the coverage play is so shaky that this now stands as one of fantasy’s juiciest matchups.

Lions vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.6)21 (+0.7)22 (+0.8)20 (+0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.1)24 (+3.3)26 (+3.3)27 (+4.2)
9Kirk Cousins4918221641123011.511.57.98.9
10Mitchell Trubisky57233035530318137.637.636.039.0
11Cam Newton5725373573122029.129.125.528.5
12Chase Daniel5827372302044020.721.718.919.4

Jared Goff (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $6400)

10vs SEA6528393182033024.
11vs KC8031494134046143.343.335.140.1
13PROJ-Dodds24353032.30.7380.1252525.0 (H=62)25.0 (H=82)
13PROJ-Tremblay223427820.9390.122.522.522.5 (H=52)22.5 (H=68)
13PROJ-Bloom23313052.21110.123.823.823.8 (H=57)23.8 (H=75)

Lions vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.0)24 (+2.2)23 (+2.4)24 (+2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.5)12 (-1.9)10T (-2.6)12 (-2.5)
9Dalvin Cook28108904420010.914.912.914.9
9Latavius Murray22103111116010.711.711.211.7
10Tarik Cohen3171517629010.416.413.416.4
10Jordan Howard3011210111103.
11Christian McCaffrey58135308657011.
11Cameron Artis-Payne311000000.
12Tarik Cohen2231408745111.918.915.418.9
12Taquan Mizzell9170322118.810.89.810.8

Todd Gurley (FanDuel: $9800, DraftKings: $9300)

10vs SEA5816120143400222523.528.0
11vs KC6812550333909.412.410.912.4
13PROJ-Dodds20951.14390.321.825.823.8 (H=49)25.8 (H=59)
13PROJ-Tremblay19871.14340.320.524.522.5 (H=44)24.5 (H=54)
13PROJ-Bloom17810.93380.319.122.120.6 (H=38)22.1 (H=45)

Malcolm Brown (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs SEA800011100121.52.0
11vs KC14415000001.
13PROJ-Dodds4150.11502.63.63.1 (H=2)3.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay4160.11402.63.63.1 (H=2)3.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom6260.20003.83.83.8 (H=4)3.8 (H=5)

Lions vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.0)15 (-0.7)16 (+0.7)15 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+6.3)25 (+7.4)26 (+6.9)26 (+8.7)
9Adam Thielen45742211508.712.710.712.7
9Laquon Treadwell41223700003.
10Allen Robinson5486133200025.331.328.334.3
10Anthony Miller4265122100018.223.220.726.2
11D.J. Moore4587157100021.728.725.231.7
11Curtis Samuel167555100011.516.514.016.5
12Taylor Gabriel47874900004.911.98.411.9
12Anthony Miller33434100004.

Brandin Cooks (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $7000)

10vs SEA631210100019116.926.921.929.9
11vs KC70128107010010.718.714.721.7
13PROJ-Dodds6850.5150121815.0 (H=27)18.0 (H=42)
13PROJ-Tremblay5820.529012.117.114.6 (H=26)17.1 (H=39)
13PROJ-Bloom6850.5180.112.918.915.9 (H=30)18.9 (H=46)

Robert Woods (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6900)

10vs SEA6454890317010.614.612.614.6
11vs KC7911472100013.
13PROJ-Dodds6800.516011.617.614.6 (H=28)17.6 (H=41)
13PROJ-Tremblay5770.502010.915.913.4 (H=24)15.9 (H=34)
13PROJ-Bloom5730.5150.111.416.413.9 (H=26)16.4 (H=36)

Josh Reynolds (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4900)

10vs SEA100000000000.00.0
11vs KC7886801000142017.020.0
13PROJ-Dodds3440.30006.29.27.7 (H=11)9.2 (H=19)
13PROJ-Tremblay3380.30205.88.87.3 (H=10)8.8 (H=17)
13PROJ-Bloom4580.50008.812.810.8 (H=21)12.8 (H=33)

Lions vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.4)13 (-1.1)14 (-0.7)12 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.8)7 (-5.4)6 (-4.6)7 (-5.2)
9Kyle Rudolph46222802.
10Trey Burton43444004.
11Greg Olsen5632916.
12Trey Burton55742802.

Gerald Everett (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2900)

10vs SEA16221517.
11vs KC234349216.919.918.419.9
13PROJ-Dodds2230. (H=5)5.5 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2180.2354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom3250. (H=7)6.7 (H=18)

Tyler Higbee (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2700)

10vs SEA50332518.511.510.011.5
11vs KC59766306.312.39.312.3
13PROJ-Dodds2210. (H=5)5.3 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2160. (H=4)4.8 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom3260. (H=8)6.8 (H=20)

Lions vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-1.1)5 (-1.1)5 (-1.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.2)1 (-3.2)2 (-3.8) (+0.0)
9Dan Bailey1133666.06.0
10Cody Parkey0224222.02.0
11Graham Gano0112111.01.0
12Cody Parkey1122556.06.0

Greg Zuerlein (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs SEA3333121212.012.0
11vs KC2267121212.012.0

Lions vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+1.6)27T (+1.6)24T (+2.2)24T (+2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.3)31 (+6.3)30 (+6.3)30 (+6.3)
9Minnesota Vikings9209100101242422.022.0
10Chicago Bears2230562100121212.012.0
11Carolina Panthers2030910000112.02.0
12Chicago Bears1633322001121213.013.0

Los Angeles Rams (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2600)

10vs SEA31.0041440100665.05.0
11vs KC51.0054633202313121.021.0
13PROJ-Dodds22.403712.81.10.700. (H=24)9.5 (H=37)
13PROJ-Tremblay22.253712.51.10.700. (H=22)9.2 (H=35)

Rams vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.9)26 (+1.9)24 (+1.3)26 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+16.3)32 (+16.3)32 (+13.7)32 (+15.8)
9Drew Brees71253634640416034.934.931.434.4
10Russell Wilson68172617630992030.
11Patrick Mahomes72334647863628047.747.738.943.9

Matthew Stafford (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5400)

10@ CHI7825422742229020.620.617.917.9
11vs CAR6523372201036015.615.613.413.4
12vs CHI662838236020009.
13PROJ-Dodds25382731.71270.120.820.820.8 (H=57)20.8 (H=71)
13PROJ-Tremblay24382721.51.1260.119.719.719.7 (H=52)19.7 (H=64)
13PROJ-Bloom23382051.51.42140.116.916.916.9 (H=39)16.9 (H=49)

Rams vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.5)14 (-0.3)13 (-0.8)15 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.4)27 (+5.4)26 (+5.3)26 (+5.4)
9Alvin Kamara41198225434129.633.631.633.6
9Mark Ingram34933021303.
10Rashaad Penny27121081000016.816.816.819.8
10Mike Davis39115806422114.
11Kareem Hunt62147004341117.120.118.620.1
11Damien Williams000000000.

LeGarrette Blount (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3900)

10@ CHI1064000000.
11vs CAR1271000000.
12vs CHI33198821115022.323.322.823.3
13PROJ-Dodds13550.41608.59.59.0 (H=16)9.5 (H=25)
13PROJ-Tremblay13550.50208.78.78.7 (H=15)8.7 (H=21)
13PROJ-Bloom12310.50006.16.16.1 (H=8)6.1 (H=11)

Theo Riddick (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4700)

10@ CHI45000766006129.012.0
11vs CAR2710075300385.58.0
12vs CHI292120774806139.513.0
13PROJ-Dodds31106480.37.713.710.7 (H=22)13.7 (H=39)
13PROJ-Tremblay1506460.15.711.78.7 (H=15)11.7 (H=30)
13PROJ-Bloom1306440.25.911.98.9 (H=16)11.9 (H=31)

Zach Zenner (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ CHI2112000001.
11vs CAR30000000000.00.0
12vs CHI429011401.
13PROJ-Dodds4170.11502.83.83.3 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay1500300.80.80.8 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
13PROJ-Bloom1500000.50.50.5 (H=0)0.5 (H=0)

Kerryon Johnson (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5300)

10@ CHI55145116638120.926.921.925.9
11vs CAR33158712210015.717.716.717.7
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay4200.11603.24.23.7 (H=2)4.2 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Rams vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+3.8)23 (+2.8)25 (+3.1)23 (+3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+14.3)32 (+17.0)32 (+15.7)32 (+18.1)
9Michael Thomas651512211100027.
9TreQuan Smith48322310008.310.39.310.3
10Tyler Lockett5965671118014.519.517.019.5
10Doug Baldwin67553900003.
11Tyreek Hill691410215200033.543.538.546.5
11Chris Conley648774200019.426.422.926.4

Kenny Golladay (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6700)

10@ CHI7413678100013.819.816.819.8
11vs CAR61148113100017.325.321.328.3
12vs CHI658590000091411.514.0
13PROJ-Dodds6860.600012.218.215.2 (H=30)18.2 (H=45)
13PROJ-Tremblay6890.5010121815.0 (H=29)18.0 (H=44)
13PROJ-Bloom6780.600011.417.414.4 (H=27)17.4 (H=42)

Bruce Ellington (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

11vs CAR33965200005.
12vs CHI5476280120396.09.0
13PROJ-Dodds4450.30006.310.38.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay4460.30106.510.58.5 (H=16)10.5 (H=33)
13PROJ-Bloom6400.30005.811.88.8 (H=17)11.8 (H=41)

T.J. Jones (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

10@ CHI50211200001.
11vs CAR4511200000.
12vs CHI45111500001.
13PROJ-Dodds2200.10002.64.63.6 (H=3)4.6 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)

Andy Jones (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

12vs CHI2131400000.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.00.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay2260.20003. (H=14)

Rams vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+1.2)21 (+1.6)21 (+1.4)23 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.4)27 (+6.5)28 (+6.0)29 (+7.5)
9Ben Watson334362112.215.213.715.2
10Nick Vannett4121816.
11Travis Kelce721510127118.728.723.731.7

Michael Roberts (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2600)

10@ CHI3331900.
12vs CHI23631601.
13PROJ-Dodds2210. (H=5)5.3 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Luke Willson (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs CAR331000000.00.0
12vs CHI2011400.
13PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)

Rams vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+1.6)25T (+1.6)23T (+1.5) (+0.0)
9Wil Lutz11669911.011.0
10Sebastian Janikowski1144777.07.0
11Harrison Butker1167999.09.0

Matt Prater (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ CHI1111446.06.0
11vs CAR22228810.010.0
12vs CHI1111444.04.0

Rams vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.4)9 (-1.4)2 (-4.5)2 (-4.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.4)27 (+2.4)4T (-3.6)4T (-3.6)
9New Orleans Saints354830100022-2.0-2.0
10Seattle Seahawks364562000022-2.0-2.0
11Kansas City Chiefs5445550201212111.011.0

Detroit Lions (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $2000)

10@ CHI34.0040210000110.00.0
11vs CAR19.0038731000556.06.0
12vs CHI23.0026440100667.07.0
13PROJ-Dodds32.804372.10.80.500. (H=10)4.9 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay32.254032.20.90.400. (H=11)5.2 (H=17)