Matchup Analysis: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jets 16, Titans 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense20.1 (-4.1) (26)104 (-9) (22)199 (-49) (29)
Titans Defense20.3 (-3.9) (6)116 (+3) (17)230 (-17) (8)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense17.7 (-6.4) (29)111 (-2) (19)191 (-57) (30)
Jets Defense25.5 (+1.4) (19)128 (+14) (27)246 (-2) (16)

Jets Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The duo of Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire continue to split snaps and carries for the Jets offense, each rushing six times in last week’s game. McGuire has played more snaps than Crowell in three straight games, but Crowell continues to slightly out-touch McGuire while they both have turned in inconsistent performances on the ground. Trenton Cannon has also mixed in at times on the ground, but he appears to be a clear third option with no carries in two of his last three games. The offensive line improved last week with the return of center Spencer Long, but this group is still a below average unit even at full strength. With the Jets often playing from behind, the volume can be an for this backfield--as we saw last week as they all but abandoned the ground game. With both low volume and a mixed workload in store here, treat these runners with caution for fantasy purposes.

Tennessee was embarrassed by the Texans last week as they allowed 281 yards on the ground. It was not just Lamar Miller’s 97-yard touchdown run that did this damage, as both Miller and Watson were consistently breaking off chunk plays against this Titans defense that had otherwise been proficient against the run. Jurrell Casey remains the stalwart of this defensive line, but he needs support from his linebackers, such as Jayon Brown, who has been known more for his pass rushing abilities than in run defense. The Titans had allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs prior to last week, so this defense fundamentally should be able to play better than what they showed last week. The Jets offensive line is in a similar spot as the Texans’ in terms of talent, but if the Titans make just a few adjustments on defense to counter what may have been an outlier performance from last week, these Jets running backs should still be in store for a decent challenge.

Jets Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The quarterback situation for the Jets may be tricky this week as Sam Darnold is still recovering from injury while Josh McCown, who has started in the past two games, suffered a hand injury of his own last week. Keep an eye on practice reports as both quarterbacks were practicing on a limited basis early in the week. It is clear that this offense led by McCown has been underwhelming in their past two games, as McCown has completed only 54.4 percent of his passes for an average of just over 200 passing yards per game with three interceptions to just one passing touchdown. This Jets offense has not scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game since Week 7 against the Vikings, with just three total passing touchdowns over that five-game span. Their receivers have been wildly inconsistent, with Jermaine Kearse now leading the team in targets after his season-high 12 targets last week, four of which were red zone looks. Robby Anderson is slowly making his way back into this offense from injury, while Quincy Enunwa is now a few weeks returned and appears to be healthy. Tight end Chris Herndon continues to carve out a role in this offense as he has 14 receptions in his last three games despite cooling off from a three-game touchdown streak from Weeks 6 thru 8. This offense will continue to be hamstrung by the play of its quarterback though. Whether that is Darnold or McCown, expectations will be rather low.

The Titans secondary has been very beatable throughout the season, and this week may be no different despite a lackluster Jets offensive attack. Over the course of the season, the Titans have given up games of over 100 receiving yards to seven different receivers, including two in their last three outings. They have allowed wide receivers to score the third-most fantasy points per game in PPR formats due mostly to the poor play from Titans cornerbacks. Malcolm Butler has been a target all season long, but even Logan Ryan and Adoree Jackson have had some down games in recent weeks. Butler did leave last week’s game with a concussion, so keep an eye on his status in practice this week since the options behind Butler are quite thin despite Butler’s poor play. The Tennessee pass rush has been fairly strong on the year despite an uncharacteristically quiet performance against the Colts in Week 11. The Jets are giving up right around 2.3 sacks per game, which is slightly better than the league average mark of 2.5. However, since Week 8, the Jets quarterbacks have been pressured very heavily--third-most in the league over that span. This offensive line is barely an average unit that has been hit hard in recent weeks, and the Titans have the talent up front to take advantage of this by putting some extra pressure on the Jets quarterback to alleviate the stress on Tennessee’s secondary.

Titans Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Titans continue to struggle with effectively moving the ball on the ground using their dual-threat attack of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. Lewis has been getting the starts lately, but snaps and carries have still been split close to evenly. Lewis certainly has the upside amongst these two, but his running style shown lately has been far too indecisive to be a big factor on the ground--as shown last week with his eight yards on seven attempts with over half of his rushes going for negative or no yards. The offensive line is playing a big part in why neither Lewis nor Henry has managed to get consistent production, as the play from these Titans guards has been very suspect while their tackles cannot stay healthy. Marcus Mariota continues to add a dimension on the ground as he extends plays with his legs, but this rushing offense as a whole will need better offensive line play if they are to find sustained success.

The Jets have faced a couple high-volume ground games in the past two weeks and struggled to combat them, allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game to running backs over that stretch. On the season, the Jets have been below average against the run with opposing running backs averaging 107 rushing yards and nearly one touchdown per game. They have now given up six rushing touchdowns in their last five games while a running back has exceeded 80 rushing yards in three of those five outings. They are not exactly squaring off against top-notch rushing offenses either, which adds insult to injury to those stats against the run. New York has the personnel to be effective though, as Mike Pennel is playing well at nose tackle while Leonard Williams has talent that has shown at times on that interior line as well. Their interior linebackers have the ability to play well while their combination of safeties have been particularly effective in run defense. The way to attack this defense is on the edges to take advantage of their weaker edge linebackers and defensive backs, which should be the strength for the Titans with their excellent pair of tackles. Depending on the playcalling, the Titans running backs should have a shot at making an impact against this reeling run defense.

Titans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Titans passing offense led by Marcus Mariota has been one of the more inconsistent offenses in football with injuries, poor offensive line play, and unpredictable quarterback performances plaguing them all season. Last week was certainly a surprise to see Marcus Mariota complete 19 straight passes until finally failing to connect on his first pass with just over a minute left in the game. Mariota crossed the 300-yard mark for the second time this season while passing for multiple touchdowns for the third straight game in which he played all four quarters. Mariota has relied heavily on short passes, but he has also shown the ability to air it out to the likes of Corey Davis as his top receiving target. Davis has seen great volume in the past three full games with Mariota while he has now found the end zone in two of his last three games. Jonnu Smith at tight end has looked like an end zone magnet for this offense, scoring in three of his last four despite low and inconsistent target volume. With both Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor battling through injuries, Davis, Smith, and Dion Lewis remain the primary weapons for Mariota to utilize.

The Jets did a decent job keeping Tom Brady and company in check through the air last week as they held him to a reasonable 64.5 percent completion rate and 283 passing yards with two touchdowns. In isolation, those are not great stats for a defense--especially considering how poorly the run defense played to keep those passing stats down. But the coverage by this secondary was pretty solid throughout last week’s game with the exception of their typical weak link in Buster Skrine covering the slot. Skrine allowed Julian Edelman to lead the Patriots in receiving, as he has been a target for opposing quarterbacks all season long. The Titans do not have much of a viable slot option with Tajae Sharpe struggling to play through an ankle injury, so there will not be much to exploit from a fantasy perspective. Corey Davis still should have a decent matchup against the likes of Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson, but where Davis could be limited is on the deep balls when either of the talented Jets safeties slides over to double up on Davis. The Titans offensive line may also get a break here after giving up four or more sacks in four of their last six games, as this Jets defensive front has neither been consistent nor effective at rushing the quarterback despite their blitz-heavy approach.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.3)11T (-1.2)11 (-1.2)12 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.4)20 (+1.7)21 (+1.3)19 (+0.8)
9Dak Prescott59213124321211020.320.315.816.8
10Tom Brady5821412540010013.314.311.311.8
11Andrew Luck5423292973000026.926.923.923.9
12Deshaun Watson65192421020970131.531.529.429.4

Josh McCown (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4400)

10vs BUF561734135021405.
12vs NE64264527611325019.319.316.516.5
13PROJ-Dodds203321111.13110.215.715.715.7 (H=39)15.7 (H=53)
13PROJ-Tremblay12201310.50.6260. (H=15)9.1 (H=20)
13PROJ-Bloom20311991.31.43140.115.715.715.7 (H=39)15.7 (H=53)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.8)4 (-5.2)6 (-4.4)4 (-5.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.2)10 (-3.0)13 (-2.0)10 (-2.9)
9Ezekiel Elliott52176105451011.
9Rod Smith700021800.
10James Develin1111100006.
10Sony Michel171131000003.
11Marlon Mack3816611218012.913.913.413.9
11Jordan Wilkins11430100009.
12Lamar Miller40121621115022.723.723.226.7
12Alfred Blue2613490111306.

Isaiah Crowell (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs BUF197191221809.711.710.711.7
12vs NE26630043300697.59.0
13PROJ-Dodds11480.321207.89.88.8 (H=15)9.8 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay12520.31100898.5 (H=14)9.0 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom13500.221707.99.98.9 (H=16)9.9 (H=27)

Elijah McGuire (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3600)

10vs BUF326300632705.
12vs NE35619031702.
13PROJ-Dodds10370.122106.48.47.4 (H=13)8.4 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay9350.121805.97.96.9 (H=11)7.9 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom6220.12140. (H=8)6.8 (H=15)

Trenton Cannon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs BUF13430041503.
12vs NE900011-30-
13PROJ-Dodds1401701.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay2701801.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom0001800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.1)28 (+4.1)28 (+4.0)30 (+5.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+6.9)28 (+9.7)28 (+8.3)27 (+10.2)
9Amari Cooper508558100011.816.814.316.8
9Allen Hurns18112310008.
10Julian Edelman54129104000010.719.715.122.6
10Josh Gordon551248100008.
11T.Y. Hilton4299155200027.536.532.039.5
11Dontrelle Inman29643410009.413.411.413.4
12Demaryius Thomas545438200015.819.817.819.8
12DeAndre Hopkins64657400007.412.49.912.4

Quincy Enunwa (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4100)

10vs BUF54841800001.
12vs NE60447300007.311.39.311.3
13PROJ-Dodds4490.20006.110.18.1 (H=14)10.1 (H=26)
13PROJ-Tremblay4530.20206.710.78.7 (H=16)10.7 (H=29)
13PROJ-Bloom4450.30006.310.38.3 (H=15)10.3 (H=27)

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

12vs NE48522200002.
13PROJ-Dodds3380.2000586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3420.20005.48.46.9 (H=11)8.4 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom3330.30005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=21)

Jermaine Kearse (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

10vs BUF50521600001.
12vs NE4012666100012.618.615.618.6
13PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=9)7.8 (H=17)
13PROJ-Tremblay3350.20004.77.76.2 (H=9)7.7 (H=17)
13PROJ-Bloom4390.30005.79.77.7 (H=13)9.7 (H=25)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.3)1 (-5.2)1 (-4.7)1 (-5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.0)3 (-6.6)2T (-5.8)3 (-6.7)
9Blake Jarwin27221501.
10Jacob Hollister22211701.
11Jack Doyle51444304.
12Ryan Griffin43433803.

Chris Herndon (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3200)

10vs BUF36433403.
12vs NE51875705.712.79.212.7
13PROJ-Dodds3330. (H=7)7.5 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3300. (H=7)7.2 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom4430. (H=13)10.1 (H=34)

Jordan Leggett (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs BUF1711600.
12vs NE17422402.
13PROJ-Dodds1800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay1100121.5 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.5)10 (-0.5)11T (-0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.7)11T (-0.7)11T (-0.5) (+0.0)
9Brett Maher0122222.02.0
10Stephen Gostkowski1211446.06.0
11Adam Vinatieri1155888.08.0
12Kaimi Fairbairn2244101012.012.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs BUF1111446.06.0
12vs NE2211779.09.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.0)19 (+0.0)24T (+2.2)24T (+2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.8)22 (+0.8)24 (+2.0)24 (+2.0)
9Dallas Cowboys2834040200887.07.0
10New England Patriots3438520000221.01.0
11Indianapolis Colts10263520009913.013.0
12Houston Texans17365601008811.011.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2200)

10vs BUF41.004511000011-3.0-3.0
12vs NE27.0049800000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds24.903482.30.90.600. (H=18)7.8 (H=31)
13PROJ-Tremblay25.003361.90.90.600. (H=17)7.4 (H=29)

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.3)10 (-1.4)12 (-1.1)11 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.3)5 (-5.3)5 (-4.7)5 (-5.6)
9Brock Osweiler571524139003407.
10Matt Barkley731525232203-2019.419.417.117.1
12Tom Brady702031283201-1022.

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5200)

10vs NE65162422820221023.624.621.822.3
11@ IND35101385014170554.14.1
12@ HOU552223303206280262622.925.9
13PROJ-Dodds19312241.50.96270.320.820.820.8 (H=54)20.8 (H=73)
13PROJ-Tremblay18292121.50.95260.219.519.519.5 (H=49)19.5 (H=65)
13PROJ-Bloom15241751.30.55270.317.917.917.9 (H=42)17.9 (H=56)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.8)20 (+1.1)21 (+1.3)19 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.6)20 (+1.0)19 (+1.9)22 (+2.3)
9Frank Gore292053011605.
9Kenyan Drake28390642603.
10LeSean McCoy49261132115023.824.824.327.8
10Marcus Murphy241469000006.
12Sony Michel302113312212020.522.521.525.5
12James White37973051507.

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5300)

10vs NE4920570221106.
11@ IND441024021803.
12@ HOU29780773304.111.17.611.1
13PROJ-Dodds13520.34290.110.514.512.5 (H=28)14.5 (H=38)
13PROJ-Tremblay12470.34270.19.813.811.8 (H=26)13.8 (H=35)
13PROJ-Bloom13530.33200.210.313.311.8 (H=26)13.3 (H=33)

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs NE1611582000017.817.817.817.8
11@ IND21946000004.
12@ HOU278300321904.
13PROJ-Dodds11430.41807.58.58.0 (H=13)8.5 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay12480.41908.19.18.6 (H=15)9.1 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom16710.700011.311.311.3 (H=24)11.3 (H=35)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.2)29 (+4.4)27 (+3.3)29 (+5.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.8)18 (+0.5)19 (+0.7)18 (+0.6)
9Danny Amendola47754700004.
9Kenny Stills28111900001.
10Zay Jones6211893100015.323.319.323.3
10Robert Foster3343105000010.513.512.016.5
12Julian Edelman605484100014.418.416.418.4
12Josh Gordon53557000007.012.09.512.0

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $5500)

10vs NE59107125100018.525.522.028.5
11@ IND58423001-
12@ HOU5344961139019.523.521.523.5
13PROJ-Dodds5690.40009.314.311.8 (H=24)14.3 (H=36)
13PROJ-Tremblay5700.40209.614.612.1 (H=25)14.6 (H=37)
13PROJ-Bloom5730.500010.315.312.8 (H=28)15.3 (H=40)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3500)

10vs NE543000000000.00.0
11@ IND58753710009.714.712.214.7
12@ HOU380000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3330.30005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay3370.30005.58.57.0 (H=11)8.5 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=9)7.9 (H=20)

Cameron Batson (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NE36323600003.
11@ IND3911501100.
12@ HOU28111300001.
13PROJ-Dodds2180.10002.44.43.4 (H=3)4.4 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay1170.10102.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Taywan Taylor (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

13PROJ-Dodds11100001.12.11.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay170.10001.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.7)4 (-3.8)5 (-2.7)4 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.3)5 (-5.8)9 (-4.0)5 (-5.9)
9Durham Smythe900000.
10Jason Croom4400006.
12Rob Gronkowski697356111.614.613.114.6

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs NE603345110.513.512.013.5
11@ IND42864404.410.47.410.4
12@ HOU422263112.314.313.314.3
13PROJ-Dodds2290. (H=6)6.1 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2220. (H=4)5.4 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom3370. (H=10)8.5 (H=24)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs NE2111101.
11@ IND14334404.
12@ HOU13445205.
13PROJ-Dodds1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)

Luke Stocker (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs NE320000000.00.0
11@ IND18321601.
12@ HOU25111401.
13PROJ-Dodds1100121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay160. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.6)22T (+0.6)20 (+0.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+2.3)29 (+2.3)28 (+2.5) (+0.0)
9Jason Sanders2211778.08.0
10Steve Hauschka2255111113.013.0
12Stephen Gostkowski2233999.09.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs NE2244101010.010.0
11@ IND1111445.05.0
12@ HOU1122555.05.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.4)26 (+1.4)27T (+3.0)27T (+3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.8)29 (+3.8)32 (+8.7)32 (+8.7)
9Miami Dolphins628244001181825.025.0
10Buffalo Bills10199320007711.011.0
12New England Patriots1333821000448.08.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NE10.0028430000337.07.0
11@ IND38.003970000000-4.0-4.0
12@ HOU34.0046240000443.03.0
13PROJ-Dodds16.703142.41.10.900.712.612.612.6 (H=36)12.6 (H=53)
13PROJ-Tremblay15.503262. (H=39)13.1 (H=57)