Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chiefs 35, Raiders 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense36.7 (+12.6) (2)116 (+2) (14)318 (+70) (3)
Raiders Defense29.7 (+5.6) (30)151 (+37) (32)239 (-9) (15)

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense17.0 (-7.2) (30)99 (-14) (25)239 (-8) (18)
Chiefs Defense26.7 (+2.6) (28)118 (+4) (20)297 (+49) (32)

Chiefs Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Kareem Hunt after getting off to a slow start to the season has been extremely consistent. Hunt has rushed for 70 or more yards in 7 of his last 8 games and has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or more in each of those seven games. Huntís volume is not going to be as high as other running backs as the team appears to be limiting has carries and trying to keep them in check as he has averaged just 14.7 carries per game over his last six games.

The Raiders rushing defense has struggled for a large majority of this season. They have allowed the third most attempts on the year and are allowing a staggering 4.9 yards per carry on those attempts. Over the last five games, the Raiders have allowed six running backs to rush for 78 yards or more and the team just has no consistent playmakers to stop the run making it one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. The Raiders are just rotating people at this point trying to find something on defense as they had 8 defensive linemen take snaps in their last game.

Chiefs Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Patrick Mahomes has played nearly flawlessly all season and finally got a chance to catch his breath after a late Week 12 bye week last week. At this point, there is not much more to say about the Chiefs offense that can beat you all over the field with their speed in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and matchup nightmare Travis Kelce. This is one of the premier offenses in the NFL and will continue to cause matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.

Oaklandís pass defense is almost the exact opposite of Kansas Cityís. If you were to just look at the statistics they are only allowing 240 yards per game which is the fifth-best in the NFL, but the statistics do not tell the full story. The reality is that they have faced 21 fewer pass attempts than the next closest team as teams just do not need to throw the ball that often against the Raiders due to how poor their rushing defense is and with their inability to keep games close. Cornerback Gareon Conley has made plays from time to time, but outside of Conley, rookie Nick Nelson and third-year corner Daryl Worley have both struggled this year.

Raiders Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Raiders rushing offense is one of the few units on the team that has been consistent throughout the season. Doug Martin has been effective since Marshawn Lynch has been out with injury as Martin has rushed for 4.1 yards per carry or more in each of the five games without Lynch. The issues for the Raiders have been that they have been forced to abandon the running attack due to falling behind early in games and the inability to consistently move the ball.

On the season, the Chiefs have been a team that their run defense has been to score enough points to prevent opponents from running. On the season, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth most rushing yards per carry at 5.0 and have faced the 8th fewest rushing attempts. It remains a unit that has issues at the linebacker position as Reggie Ragland who was relegated to the bench last week alongside Anthony Hitchens have both struggled mightily to stop the run on a consistent basis. This is a team that is built to rush the passer with Justin Houston and Dee Ford and not one that is built to consistently stop the run. The Chiefs have allowed 13 running backs to rush for 50 yards or more this season in just 11 games and outside of stopping James Conner Week 2 have shown very little resistance to the running game. The problem for Oakland is whether they will abandon the run due to projected to be behind in this game.

Raiders Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Raiders and Derek Carr are in disarray at the moment as they essentially have no talent surrounding Carr along with Carr having an inability to push the ball downfield to make a play. The team desperately needs a receiver to be a deep threat, but with Martavis Bryant out, Amari Cooper traded and Jordy Nelson is a shell of his former self it is essentially Jared Cook and thatís it. Marcell Ateman is an interesting rookie who the Raiders will continue to roll onto the field, but will need rapid development if the Raiders passing offense is going to improve any time soon.

The Chiefs secondary is a unit that is not as bad as the stats indicate. By no means is it a good unit as it is built on three slot corners learning to play the outside and the Chiefs have given up the most passing yards on the season. However, this is also partly due to the offense of the Chiefs being so dominant as they have faced the most passing attempts so far this year. The Chiefs have had success against below average quarterbacks holding San Francisco, Denver, Cincinnati, and Arizona to an average of 230 yards per game. This is great news for the Chiefs defense this week as they are going up against a passing offense that is struggling mightily in the Raiders as of late.

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.5)19 (+0.4)21 (+0.7)19 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.6)14 (-0.6)15 (+0.2)14 (-0.8)
9Nick Mullens551622262304-3024.824.822.222.2
10Philip Rivers5618262232111018.318.316.016.0
11Josh Rosen549201363210016.816.815.415.4
12Lamar Jackson701425178121171124.

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $9500, DraftKings: $7600)

10vs ARI59212824920421022.622.620.120.1
11@ LAR72334647863628047.747.738.943.9
13PROJ-Dodds24363172.80.94190. (H=72)29.2 (H=90)
13PROJ-Tremblay22352912.714180.227.427.427.4 (H=65)27.4 (H=81)
13PROJ-Bloom20282652.60.73150.225.625.625.6 (H=57)25.6 (H=72)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.6)22 (+1.6)25 (+3.1)25 (+2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.2)11 (-2.5)15T (-1.3)13 (-1.7)
9Raheem Mostert147861000014.614.614.614.6
9Matt Breida271244011304.
10Melvin Gordon45189306572122.527.525.027.5
10Austin Ekeler20319000001.
11David Johnson432513703117015.416.415.919.4
11Chase Edmonds11517000001.
12Gus Edwards43231180000011.811.811.814.8
12Ty Montgomery288510331306.

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $8900, DraftKings: $7800)

10vs ARI4316710222509.611.610.611.6
11@ LAR62147004341117.120.118.620.1
13PROJ-Dodds18850.83350.419.222.220.7 (H=42)22.2 (H=55)
13PROJ-Tremblay18790.72240.316.318.317.3 (H=31)18.3 (H=39)
13PROJ-Bloom17810.63350.417.620.619.1 (H=37)20.6 (H=48)

Spencer Ware (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

10vs ARI2026111707.
11@ LAR110000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3120.11120343.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay290.111002.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom8400.1180.1676.5 (H=9)7.0 (H=14)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.5)11 (-2.1)14 (-0.6)10 (-3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.2)8 (-6.9)9 (-4.4)8 (-7.8)
9Pierre Garcon375356100011.614.613.114.6
9Kendrick Bourne1222610006.
10Keenan Allen509657100011.717.714.717.7
10Tyrell Williams45644600004.
11Larry Fitzgerald504223200014.316.315.316.3
11Christian Kirk484377100013.716.715.216.7
12Michael Crabtree47632110008.111.19.611.1
12John Brown45712500002.

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $9100)

10vs ARI541071172120025.732.729.235.7
11@ LAR691410215200033.543.538.546.5
13PROJ-Dodds6960.918015.821.818.9 (H=38)21.9 (H=46)
13PROJ-Tremblay6930.918015.521.518.6 (H=37)21.6 (H=45)
13PROJ-Bloom5850.800013.318.315.9 (H=28)18.4 (H=34)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs ARI54212200002.
11@ LAR648774200019.426.422.926.4
13PROJ-Dodds2200.20003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay2280.30004.66.65.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=13)
13PROJ-Bloom4410.40006.510.58.5 (H=18)10.5 (H=30)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs ARI4343300000364.56.0
11@ LAR35211400001.
13PROJ-Dodds1100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay2200.20003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5400)

11@ LAR511400000.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay2230.21303.85.84.8 (H=5)5.8 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.7)18 (+1.2)22 (+1.5)19 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.4)18 (-0.4)19 (+0.1)18 (+0.3)
9George Kittle3344108116.820.818.823.8
10Virgil Green47323003.
11Jermaine Gresham3921800.
12Mark Andrews18117407.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $7000)

10vs ARI58764604.610.67.610.6
11@ LAR721510127118.728.723.731.7
13PROJ-Dodds6820.611.817.814.8 (H=27)17.8 (H=41)
13PROJ-Tremblay6780.7121815.0 (H=27)18.0 (H=42)
13PROJ-Bloom6810.812.918.915.9 (H=30)18.9 (H=46)

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs ARI140000000.00.0
11@ LAR3921300.
13PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+1.3)28 (+1.3)25 (+1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.0)24 (+1.0)20 (+0.7) (+0.0)
9Robbie Gould2244101010.010.0
10Mike Badgley2222889.09.0
11Matt McCrane0033333.03.0
12Justin Tucker2244101011.011.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs ARI22228810.010.0
11@ LAR1167999.09.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.0)24 (+1.0)30 (+3.3)30 (+3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.8)28 (+2.8)31 (+6.5)31 (+6.5)
9San Francisco 49ers3242800008815.015.0
10Los Angeles Chargers6317401006613.013.0
11Arizona Cardinals2332540000444.04.0
12Baltimore Ravens1724930102171718.018.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs ARI14.00260520009910.010.0
11@ LAR54.0045550201212111.011.0
13PROJ-Dodds20.203612.610.800.510.410.410.4 (H=26)10.4 (H=46)
13PROJ-Tremblay20.253492.310.800.510.110.110.1 (H=25)10.1 (H=43)

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.5)28 (+3.4)28 (+2.8)28 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.4)27 (+4.4)25 (+2.8)24 (+3.5)
9Baker Mayfield7229422972100021.921.918.918.9
10Josh Rosen732239208121-1012.312.310.210.2
11Jared Goff8031494134046143.343.335.140.1

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5000)

10vs LAC6324372430022012.412.47.98.9
11@ ARI6819311922000017.617.615.715.7
12@ BAL5616341941000013.713.79.810.8
13PROJ-Dodds24382681.50.9250.119.619.619.6 (H=52)19.6 (H=69)
13PROJ-Tremblay22362481.41250. (H=45)18.1 (H=60)
13PROJ-Bloom16281690.91000111111.0 (H=19)11.0 (H=25)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.2)32 (+7.8)32 (+7.5)32 (+8.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.6)30 (+7.6)30 (+6.8)29 (+7.0)
9Duke Johnson351809978220.629.625.129.6
9Nick Chubb3722851115015.016.015.516.0
10David Johnson56219819785130.337.333.837.3
10T.J. Logan3000221401.
11Todd Gurley6812550333909.412.410.912.4
11Malcolm Brown14415000001.

Doug Martin (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4200)

10vs LAC3015610333109.212.210.712.2
11@ ARI141052011605.
12@ BAL28115114321013.216.214.716.2
13PROJ-Dodds12550.33190.19.812.811.3 (H=21)12.8 (H=39)
13PROJ-Tremblay12540.32190.19.711.710.7 (H=19)11.7 (H=33)
13PROJ-Bloom10450.321407.79.78.7 (H=13)9.7 (H=24)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4300)

10vs LAC27370655205.910.98.410.9
11@ ARI3211610433209.312.310.812.3
12@ BAL26110421501.
13PROJ-Dodds4170.15430. (H=21)12.2 (H=35)
13PROJ-Tremblay4170.15450.17.412.49.9 (H=22)12.4 (H=36)
13PROJ-Bloom2403230. (H=6)6.3 (H=11)

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs LAC60000000000.00.0
11@ ARI231239000003.
12@ BAL838011901.
13PROJ-Dodds4170.11602.93.93.4 (H=3)3.9 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay4170.10102.42.42.4 (H=2)2.4 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom3900000.90.90.9 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.8)16 (+0.8)15 (+0.0)16 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.0)17 (+0.4)14 (-0.8)16 (+0.4)
9Antonio Callaway39535100005.
9Jarvis Landry73765000005.
10Larry Fitzgerald701065000005.
10Christian Kirk6562800000.
11Josh Reynolds788680100014.
11Robert Woods7911472100013.

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

10vs LAC28333900003.
11@ ARI47743800003.
12@ BAL393254011106.
13PROJ-Dodds3400.30005.88.87.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay3430.30106.29.27.7 (H=13)9.2 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom3440.20005.68.67.1 (H=11)8.6 (H=20)

Jordy Nelson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3700)

10vs LAC431000000000.00.0
12@ BAL5210001-20-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2
13PROJ-Dodds3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=19)
13PROJ-Tremblay2210.10102.84.83.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)
13PROJ-Bloom180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)

Marcell Ateman (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3600)

11@ ARI6554500000597.09.0
12@ BAL471031600001.
13PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=19)
13PROJ-Tremblay2330.20004.56.55.5 (H=8)6.5 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom4450.20005.79.77.7 (H=14)9.7 (H=28)

Keon Hatcher (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ BAL221800000.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.00.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay1700000. (H=1)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.3)29 (+3.1)30 (+3.1)30 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.8)25 (+3.9)25 (+3.4)25 (+3.9)
9David Njoku55545305.
10Ricky Seals-Jones46955105.110.17.610.1
11Gerald Everett234349216.919.918.419.9

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4700)

10vs LAC37945205.
11@ ARI39633119.112.110.612.1
12@ BAL32523219.
13PROJ-Dodds5590.48.313.310.8 (H=19)13.3 (H=37)
13PROJ-Tremblay5600.48.413.410.9 (H=20)13.4 (H=38)
13PROJ-Bloom3450. (H=11)9.3 (H=20)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs LAC1831500.
11@ ARI110000000.00.0
12@ BAL190000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay170. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Lee Smith (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs LAC230000000.00.0
11@ ARI2922600.
12@ BAL18223903.
13PROJ-Dodds000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.4)11T (-0.4)11T (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.1)9 (-1.1)9 (-1.2) (+0.0)
9Greg Joseph1100335.05.0
10Phil Dawson0022222.02.0
11Greg Zuerlein2267121212.012.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs LAC2200667.07.0
11@ ARI3322111112.012.0
12@ BAL1122556.06.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.4)14 (-0.4)3 (-3.8)3 (-3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.4)32 (+7.4)28 (+2.7)28 (+2.7)
9Cleveland Browns3749921000440.00.0
10Arizona Cardinals2633050000555.05.0
11Los Angeles Rams5154633202313121.021.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $2000, DraftKings: $2000)

10vs LAC20.0033511000334.04.0
11@ ARI21.0028212000555.05.0
12@ BAL34.0041612000554.04.0
13PROJ-Dodds35.704531.70.90.400. (H=7)3.3 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay35.254112.310.400. (H=12)4.3 (H=12)