Matchup Analysis: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Broncos 23, Bengals 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense22.9 (-1.2) (19)125 (+11) (10)241 (-6) (16)
Bengals Defense31.5 (+7.4) (32)147 (+33) (31)292 (+44) (31)

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense25.1 (+0.9) (13)94 (-19) (28)240 (-8) (17)
Broncos Defense22.9 (-1.2) (13)123 (+9) (24)266 (+18) (24)

Broncos Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Phillip Lindsay is separating himself from Royce Freeman at this point as over the last two weeks even with Freeman back, Lindsay is averaging 12.5 carries for 94.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns compared to Freeman’s 6.5 carries for 20 yards and 0.5 touchdowns over the same two-game span. While Lindsay will not average 7.5 yards per carry each week, he remains the more dynamic running back on the Broncos who brings more big-play ability every time he touches the field.

The Bengals may have the worst overall defense in the NFL and it seems at this point the team does not have the will to turn it around. On the season, the Bengals are allowing an average of 119 yards and a touchdown per game and over the last three games have allowed 153 yards and 1.7 touchdowns to opposing running backs. While the Bengals did get Vontaze Burfict back last week, he was largely ineffective in his return and does not appear to be a difference maker as he has now played five games this season with very little impact to the run defense. This is an undertalented linebacking unit that is in disarray after they fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin as Hue Jackson has been helping run the defense in Cincinnati.

Broncos Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Case Keenum and the Broncos passing attack is one that appears to want to transition to a ball control, game management type offense instead of the heavy passing attack that we saw earlier this season. A large part of this is that Courtland Sutton has not developed as the Broncos would have hoped and has struggled with consistency which ultimately led to Vance Joseph publically challenging Sutton to play better. Over the last few weeks, this offense has had success running the ball that they have not needed to take chances and Keenum has not turned the ball over in three weeks after throwing at least one interception in the prior eight games. This is an offense that desperately needs a second receiving threat to step up especially after the loss of Jeff Heuerman who had 16 receptions over the last three weeks.

The Bengals secondary is one of, if not the worst unit in football as really it is a pick which way you want to beat this defense whether it is through the air or on the ground. The Bengals have allowed 300 yards or more or three touchdowns or more in every game except two this season in which they played the run-heavy Dolphins led by Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson two weeks ago in which they allowed 117 yards rushing. The issue for the Bengals is that they are one of the few teams that plays a base 4-3 defense as their primary defense and do not frequently go to a Nickel package leaving their linebackers in tough spots covering wide receivers. The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the year and could be a get right game for the Broncos passing attack if they choose to go that way.

Bengals Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Joe Mixon continues to have a solid season even with the lack of consistent volume on a week to week basis. The Bengals are limiting Mixon’s carries since he has returned from injury as he is only averaging 12.3 carries per game. On the season, Mixon has been productive outside of a tough matchup two weeks ago at Baltimore as outside of that game he has rushed for 50 yards per more in every game this season and averaging 82 yards per game. Jeff Driskel taking over for Andy Dalton adds an additional threat on the ground and should help the rushing attack for the Bengals this week as while he is not extremely mobile, he is much like Mitchell Trubisky in that he can break a long run from time to time as we saw in the New Orleans game when he came in during garbage time.

The Broncos run defense outside of a three-game outlier has largely returned to 2017 form. They have faced a gauntlet over the last four weeks and have held strong holding David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Lamar Miller, Melvin Gordon and James Conner to an average of 46 yards per game. The front seven is full of talent and the defensive line led by Derek Wolfe and Domata Peko are space-eating linemen who are preventing the offensive lineman from getting to the second level. This is one of the better run stopping units in football.

Bengals Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Jeff Driskel is taking over this week and it appears he will likely get A.J. Green back which is a major upgrade to the passing offense. Driskel may inject some life into this sputtering offense that has struggled over the last few weeks in matchups that they should have had a decent chance of exploiting. Driskel is a quarterback who the Bengals like quite a bit, but he is a raw talent with mobility and will likely make some mistakes but at this point will provide a change of pace and the ability to take some more chances that Dalton had not been willing to take over the last few weeks.

The Broncos secondary is a unit that has fallen on hard times over the last two weeks as they have allowed 400 yards or more to both the Chargers and the Steelers including 462 yards to Ben Roethlisberger last week. This is particularly surprising as on the year this has been a very good pass defense as outside of those two performances they have allowed just one quarterback to throw for over 300 yards which was Patrick Mahomes who did it twice barely with an average of 304 yards. This is a tough defense to figure out going forward as it does not have any major injuries to indicate why it has fallen apart recently other than they faced two really good passing offenses. Expect a potential bounce-back week for the Broncos this week.

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+5.7)32 (+5.8)32 (+5.6)32 (+6.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.2)29 (+5.2)30 (+5.7)29 (+5.8)
10Drew Brees6322252653023131.631.628.928.9
11Lamar Jackson7913191500127117018.218.216.719.7
12Baker Mayfield641926258404-4028.528.525.925.9

Case Keenum (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5200)

11@ LAC5619322050000010.310.38.28.2
12vs PIT571528197203-3017.617.615.615.6
13PROJ-Dodds22352531.40.9150.118.418.418.4 (H=44)18.4 (H=59)
13PROJ-Tremblay22352501.41140. (H=43)18.1 (H=57)
13PROJ-Bloom15251841.30.500013.913.913.9 (H=27)13.9 (H=36)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.0)31 (+7.2)31 (+7.5)30 (+7.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+14.4)31 (+12.7)32 (+14.3)31 (+14.7)
10Mark Ingram311310403358122.225.223.728.2
10Alvin Kamara34125625446022.
11Gus Edwards49171151000017.517.519.522.5
11Alex Collins17718100007.
12Nick Chubb46288413344124.827.826.327.8
12Duke Johnson182160212303.

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5400)

11@ LAC32117925427022.626.624.626.6
12vs PIT361411010000171717.020.0
13PROJ-Dodds17820.53190.113.716.715.2 (H=31)16.7 (H=48)
13PROJ-Tremblay16800.62180.1141615.0 (H=31)16.0 (H=45)
13PROJ-Bloom15800.82140.114.816.815.8 (H=34)16.8 (H=49)

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

11@ LAC13723111709109.510.0
12vs PIT15617000001.
13PROJ-Dodds8330.31405.56.56.0 (H=8)6.5 (H=14)
13PROJ-Tremblay9360.31305.76.76.2 (H=9)6.7 (H=14)
13PROJ-Bloom13510.60008.78.78.7 (H=16)8.7 (H=23)

Devontae Booker (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

11@ LAC1100011400.
12vs PIT600021600.
13PROJ-Dodds13011101.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay0001100121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=1)
13PROJ-Bloom0001500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.8)20 (+1.6)22 (+2.1)22 (+2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.8)7 (-7.1)7 (-5.9)7 (-8.0)
10Michael Thomas468870200019.
10Keith Kirkwood34224500004.
11Willie Snead53855100005.110.17.610.1
11John Brown51112301002.
12Antonio Callaway385462100012.
12Jarvis Landry39533000003.

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6300)

11@ LAC50645601606.
12vs PIT4412786100014.621.618.121.6
13PROJ-Dodds7800.514011.418.414.9 (H=30)18.4 (H=49)
13PROJ-Tremblay7880.513012.119.115.6 (H=33)19.1 (H=52)
13PROJ-Bloom5710.500010.115.112.6 (H=23)15.1 (H=34)

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

11@ LAC50637800007.810.89.310.8
12vs PIT42411400001.
13PROJ-Dodds3510.20006.39.37.8 (H=12)9.3 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay3490.30006.79.78.2 (H=14)9.7 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom3510.30006.99.98.4 (H=14)9.9 (H=25)

DaeSean Hamilton (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ LAC1421400000.
12vs PIT29211300001.
13PROJ-Dodds1190.10002.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay0600000.60.60.6 (H=0)0.6 (H=0)
13PROJ-Bloom1800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Tim Patrick (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ LAC271000000000.00.0
12vs PIT80000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay2210.10002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.9)31 (+4.3)31 (+3.4)31 (+4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.6)19 (+0.4)20 (+0.5)19 (+0.3)
10Dan Arnold27322502.
11Nick Boyle53443603.
12David Njoku435563112.317.314.817.3

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ LAC1921900.
12vs PIT27433419.412.410.912.4
13PROJ-Dodds3320.3586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=29)
13PROJ-Tremblay3350. (H=11)8.3 (H=31)
13PROJ-Bloom3350. (H=13)8.9 (H=35)

Brian Parker (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ LAC50000000.00.0
12vs PIT91000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+1.5)29 (+1.5)29 (+1.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.3)31 (+3.3)32 (+3.8) (+0.0)
10Wil Lutz3366151517.017.0
11Justin Tucker3311101012.012.0
12Greg Joseph0055555.05.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ LAC1122555.05.0
12vs PIT1133667.07.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.5)7T (-1.5)16T (-0.6)16T (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.2)12 (-1.2)16 (+0.0)16 (+0.0)
10New Orleans Saints1428442000889.09.0
11Baltimore Ravens2125510000111.01.0
12Cleveland Browns2037211100558.08.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

11@ LAC22.0047932000777.07.0
12vs PIT17.0052722200101011.011.0
13PROJ-Dodds19.503392.51.20.700.510.510.510.5 (H=26)10.5 (H=43)
13PROJ-Tremblay19.253522.31.20.800.510.810.810.8 (H=27)10.8 (H=45)

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.6)17 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.4)25 (+3.4)24 (+2.6)25 (+3.7)
9Deshaun Watson62172421320638022.522.520.320.3
11Philip Rivers772843401221-4025.725.721.624.6
12Ben Roethlisberger78415646212218026.926.922.325.3

Jeff Driskel (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4500)

10vs NO7234500235111.811.811.311.3
11@ BAL100000000000.00.0
12vs CLE4417291551039118.718.717.117.1
13PROJ-Dodds21352411.51.22110.118.518.518.5 (H=48)18.5 (H=69)
13PROJ-Tremblay22362591.41.2280.118.718.718.7 (H=49)18.7 (H=70)
13PROJ-Bloom23372271.51.54130.117.817.817.8 (H=45)17.8 (H=65)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.9)17 (+0.2)18 (+0.1)17 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.7)3 (-7.0)3 (-7.4)3 (-8.0)
9Lamar Miller4012210222704.
9Alfred Blue221539000003.
11Melvin Gordon64186906687015.621.618.621.6
11Austin Ekeler186290224006.
12James Conner6713530444209.513.59.512.5
12Jaylen Samuels4000211201.

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $7300)

10vs NO2911610222408.510.59.510.5
11@ BAL34121413338011.214.212.714.2
12vs CLE53148907766015.522.519.022.5
13PROJ-Dodds17740.54320. (H=33)18.2 (H=41)
13PROJ-Tremblay16740.43240.112.815.814.3 (H=27)15.8 (H=32)
13PROJ-Bloom13600.44350.112.516.514.5 (H=27)16.5 (H=35)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

10vs NO12260323003.
11@ BAL26250442002.
12vs CLE231100111202.
13PROJ-Dodds4160.121904.16.15.1 (H=6)6.1 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay2100.121503.15.14.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=8)
13PROJ-Bloom1302150. (H=3)4.4 (H=6)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.6)21 (+1.8)18 (+1.2)19 (+2.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.6)30 (+11.7)29 (+8.7)30 (+12.7)
9DeAndre Hopkins611210105100016.526.521.529.5
9Demaryius Thomas49336100006.
11Keenan Allen6912989111015.024.019.524.0
11Mike Williams45325600005.
12JuJu Smith-Schuster661713189100024.937.931.440.9
12Ryan Switzer52866701407.

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6100)

10vs NO41436500006.
11@ BAL521147100007.
12vs CLE728785100014.521.518.021.5
13PROJ-Dodds5690.40009.314.311.8 (H=20)14.3 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay5610.301081310.5 (H=16)13.0 (H=27)
13PROJ-Bloom5530.40007.712.710.2 (H=15)12.7 (H=26)

A.J. Green (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7400)

13PROJ-Dodds5620.50009.214.211.7 (H=17)14.2 (H=26)
13PROJ-Tremblay5670.40009.114.111.6 (H=17)14.1 (H=26)
13PROJ-Bloom5710.500010.115.112.6 (H=20)15.1 (H=29)

John Ross (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3900)

10vs NO36623910009.911.910.911.9
11@ BAL51722710008.710.79.710.7
12vs CLE68733110009.112.110.612.1
13PROJ-Dodds2330.30005.17.16.1 (H=8)7.1 (H=15)
13PROJ-Tremblay2290.20104.26.25.2 (H=6)6.2 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom3350.20004.77.76.2 (H=8)7.7 (H=17)

Auden Tate (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NO71000000000.00.0
11@ BAL111500000.
12vs CLE32721500001.
13PROJ-Dodds1140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1900000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NO160000000000.00.0
11@ BAL91000000000.00.0
12vs CLE70000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds11100001.12.11.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay0400100.50.50.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.2 (H=0)0.2 (H=0)

Cody Core (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs NO20221700001.
11@ BAL342000000000.00.0
12vs CLE3121700000.
13PROJ-Dodds1800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
13PROJ-Tremblay1600000.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.5)20 (+1.5)20 (+1.4)20 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.6)24 (+3.5)23 (+2.4)23 (+3.1)
9Jordan Thomas3911716.
11Antonio Gates277580114.019.016.519.0
12Jesse James50443503.

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3400)

10vs NO42432302.
11@ BAL55534104.
12vs CLE741363903.
13PROJ-Dodds4340. (H=10)8.6 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay4360. (H=10)8.8 (H=25)
13PROJ-Bloom4290. (H=8)8.1 (H=22)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.5)19T (+0.5)26 (+1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.6)19T (+0.6)29 (+2.5) (+0.0)
9Kaimi Fairbairn2212778.08.0
11Mike Badgley3312101012.012.0
12Chris Boswell12225510.110.1

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs NO0022222.02.0
11@ BAL0133333.03.0
12vs CLE0123222.02.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-1.9)3T (-1.9)4T (-1.7)4T (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.9)3 (-3.9)4 (-3.6)4 (-3.6)
9Houston Texans1734820100445.05.0
11Los Angeles Chargers2332500000000.00.0
12Pittsburgh Steelers2430820000222.02.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2200)

10vs NO51.005090000000-4.0-4.0
11@ BAL24.0040321000444.04.0
12vs CLE35.003420000000-4.0-4.0
13PROJ-Dodds23.703832.210.600. (H=20)8.1 (H=34)
13PROJ-Tremblay23.253732.210.700. (H=22)8.5 (H=37)