Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 26, Jaguars 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense29.5 (+5.4) (4)113 (+0) (18)275 (+27) (9)
Jaguars Defense22.1 (-2.1) (8)115 (+1) (16)206 (-42) (3)

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense17.9 (-6.2) (28)114 (+0) (16)232 (-15) (21)
Colts Defense24.8 (+0.7) (18)106 (-7) (12)254 (+6) (20)

Colts Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Colts run game, left for dead by most early in the year, has shown real signs of life over the past two months. After averaging just 74 ground yards over their first 5 games, they’ve been at 145 since, consistently creating chunk runs and grinding out late-game leads. Marlon Mack has enjoyed a breakout in the lead role, averaging 5.27 yards per carry since returning from injury in Week 6. Perhaps most importantly, the offensive line has taken a big step forward, with rookie guard Quenton Nelson already playing at an All-Pro level. Of course, if Mack and/or center Ryan Kelly is forced to sit Sunday, this outlook will cloud considerably. Mack suffered a concussion in Week 12 and may not gain clearance, which would leave rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines as the running game’s backbone. Wilkins has broken off a handful of big gains as the change-of-pace runner, and Hines is a dynamic open-field weapon, but this would likely present a noticeable downgrade. Kelly is battling a knee sprain and looks iffy for Sunday; he’s a fine run blocker, and even with Nelson excelling on the interior, his absence is felt. The Colts passing game is dominating at the moment, leaving less responsibility on the run game, but they definitely need some degree of balance. That will be a much tougher ask if two of their run-game lynchpins are forced to sit.

Jacksonville’s run defense struggled to open the year, facing a number of elite runners and consistently giving up chunk runs. But it’s settled down majorly of late and again looks like a fairly prohibitive fantasy matchup. They’ve held each of the last 3 lead backs they’ve faced under 50 yards, allowing them just 2.63 yards per carry along the way. The front line is dominant, with Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson heading a group capable of controlling the line of scrimmage in any matchup. And behind them, middle linebacker Myles Jack is developing into one of football’s most dependable tacklers. There have been lapses, but this is a swarming unit that usually makes opposing runners claw for everything they get.

Colts Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Simply put, Andrew Luck is in a very special quarterbacking zone at the moment. Over the last 5 weeks he’s completed a stunning 76% of his passes, averaging 8.86 yards per attempt and firing 16 touchdowns. Last Sunday, he became just the third passer in history to throw three touchdowns in eight consecutive outings. Luck is always a threat to chase 300 when the script calls for it – he’s topped 295 six times already – even with a receiving corps that’s been undermanned all year. His wideouts beyond T.Y. Hilton are ho-hum at best, and top tight end Jack Doyle, who’s battled injuries all season, just went on injured reserve. Still, as long as Hilton is dominating cornerbacks (280 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last 2 weeks) and the tight ends are finding the end zone (the non-Doyle guys have already caught 16 scores), Luck’s fantasy brilliance seems secure. He looks like his promising young self again, sharp and exceptionally accurate with the ball on all levels. This is a high-floor, high-ceiling offense that consistently turns whatever volume it gets into big, efficient fantasy lines.

Jacksonville’s pass defense, so feared throughout 2017, has taken a noticeable step backward. This is still a tough unit in general, but it’s given up a surprising number of big plays lately, leading to a handful of big fantasy lines. Prior to last week, 3 consecutive opponents each topped 280 yards, firing 8 combined touchdowns along the way. It’s hard to gauge much from Week 12, in which Buffalo’s Josh Allen threw just 19 passes en route to a run-dominant win. But it was discouraging to see a too-easy 75-yard touchdown that took advantage of a badly-blown Jalen Ramsey assignment. Ramsey remains an upper-tier cover man, but he’s been inconsistent throughout the year and is a big reason the Jaguars are losing downfield so often. This isn’t a unit fantasy players should seek to target – there are gobs of dynamic talent throughout the pass rush and the secondary. But cracks are showing, so it’s not a matchup that looks to affect red-hot Andrew Luck much.

Jaguars Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Leonard Fournette will sit this week after his Week 12 scuffle, and left guard Andrew Norwell is out for multiple games, and those are actually the biggest transitions for the Jacksonville offense. The ground-oriented Jaguars will face the Colts without their engine, and replacements T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde will operate behind one of the league’s worst front lines. (Our Matt Bitonti currently ranks it 31st.) Norwell joins top blocker and fellow guard Brandon Linder on injured reserve, severely damaging the team’s power approach on the interior. Yeldon isn’t a great back in any one area, and he certainly doesn’t boast Fournette’s power, so he won’t be grinding out the clock in the same way. Yeldon has some open-field shiftiness, but breaking onto the second level won’t be particularly easy. Hyde will rotate in on running downs, but his game projects poorly with the offensive line issues. He’s not as powerful as his 230-pound frame suggests, and he lacks real speed to the edges. The Jaguars would love to lean on the ground game and ask as little as possible from Cody Kessler, but that’s a much trickier task this week than most.

The Colts continue to trot out a subpar run defense, one that flashes promise but remains wholly beatable by strong run games. They’ve now allowed at least one opposing runner to average north of 5.00 yards per carry in 7 of 11 games, a list that ranges from speedy scatbacks to powerful, bell-cow types. The front line has been solid for much of the year, with Denico Autry and Al Woods forming a solid tandem up the middle. And rookie middle linebacker Darius Leonard has been a revelation in both facets of the defense. Still, the rest of the front seven is built more for penetration and pass rush than for stout run defense. When backs are given a crease, they’re often able to take advantage of wide gaps onto the second level. The Colts won’t face Leonard Fournette this week, which is ultimately a blessing for the Colts but they still are a unit that is nowhere near a shutdown unit.

Jaguars Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Blake Bortles era is likely over for good, and the Jaguars will soon seek out their new franchise passer. It almost certainly won’t be Week 13 starter Cody Kessler, though. With his career 5.04 adjusted net yards per attempt, Kessler is little more than a game manager who won’t see many chances to be a hero. And even in that role, he’s extremely suspect. Over his last 63 dropbacks he’s absorbed 10 sacks and thrown 2 interceptions, terrible signs for a guy tasked with sustaining drives and avoiding turnovers. The Jaguars’ beaten-up front line doesn’t help matters, nor does the lack of offensive centerpiece Leonard Fournette. Like Bortles before him, Kessler won’t be asked to do much at all unless this game somehow turns into a track meet. Bortles threw for just 104 and 127 yards in his final 2 starts, with a single touchdown, and that looks like the high-water mark for Kessler. The Jaguars boast talent at wideout, but it’s relatively raw, and no one target has boosted his game noticeably this season.

Cody Kessler truly has his work cut out for him as he takes over the Jacksonville offense. But there are few softer matchups to debut against than the Colts secondary. Built to sit back and tackle after the catch, they’re allowing opposing passers to complete 72% of their throws. Their overall numbers aren’t terrible (23rd in net yards allowed per attempt, 11th in touchdowns), but they’ve been blessed to face a particularly weak set of passing games over the last 2 months. Better passers dominated this matchup early in the year, including Deshaun Watson (375 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Tom Brady (341 and 3). Kessler is nowhere near that level, of course, but he can take comfort in knowing that short throws underneath should have room all afternoon.

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.1)15 (-1.0)15 (-0.7)14 (-1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.0)28 (+5.0)28 (+5.3)28 (+5.3)
10Andrew Luck552129285315-2025.
11Ben Roethlisberger6527473142321126.826.823.726.7
12Josh Allen58819160101399127.927.926.326.3

Andrew Luck (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $5800)

10vs JAX552129285315-2025.
11vs TEN5423292973000026.926.923.923.9
12vs MIA6930373433225028.
13PROJ-Dodds233726520.9380.121.821.821.8 (H=50)21.8 (H=71)
13PROJ-Tremblay22352411.81390.119.719.719.7 (H=42)19.7 (H=60)
13PROJ-Bloom19272302.10.6230.220.820.820.8 (H=46)20.8 (H=66)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.8)1 (-7.3)1 (-6.3)2 (-7.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-13.0)1 (-14.4)1 (-12.9)1 (-14.4)
10Jordan Wilkins5153000005.
10Marlon Mack331229022903.
11James Conner589250962404.910.97.910.9
11Roosevelt Nix400000000.
12LeSean McCoy371746011705.
12Chris Ivory19314000001.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5000)

10vs JAX331229022903.
11vs TEN3816611218012.913.913.413.9
12vs MIA3615850221109.611.610.611.6
13PROJ-Dodds11500.32120.18.610.69.6 (H=14)10.6 (H=23)
13PROJ-Tremblay15650.42120.110.712.711.7 (H=20)12.7 (H=32)
13PROJ-Bloom16630.52110.1111312.0 (H=21)13.0 (H=33)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4100)

10vs JAX20330431902.
11vs TEN165140312003.
12vs MIA26928022220576.07.0
13PROJ-Dodds7270.23190. (H=14)9.4 (H=23)
13PROJ-Tremblay8310.23190. (H=15)9.8 (H=25)
13PROJ-Bloom7230.22210. (H=14)8.8 (H=21)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs JAX5153000005.
11vs TEN1143010000999.09.0
12vs MIA8000333203.
13PROJ-Dodds3140.11402.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay3120.11502.33.32.8 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom2700000.70.70.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.5)5 (-6.3)4 (-5.6)5 (-6.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.1)14 (-0.8)17 (+0.2)15 (+0.2)
10T.Y. Hilton42737700007.710.79.210.7
10Dontrelle Inman18444100004.
11Antonio Brown64135117100017.722.720.225.7
11JuJu Smith-Schuster61108104000010.418.414.421.4
12Robert Foster333294100015.417.416.417.4
12Isaiah McKenzie33321102817.

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6000)

10vs JAX42737700007.710.79.210.7
11vs TEN4299155200027.536.532.039.5
12vs MIA60107125000012.519.516.022.5
13PROJ-Dodds6800.600011.617.614.6 (H=27)17.6 (H=47)
13PROJ-Tremblay6800.600011.617.614.6 (H=27)17.6 (H=47)
13PROJ-Bloom5860.600012.217.214.7 (H=27)17.2 (H=46)

Dontrelle Inman (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3800)

10vs JAX18444100004.
11vs TEN29643410009.413.411.413.4
12vs MIA4643400000475.57.0
13PROJ-Dodds3350.30005.38.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3370.30005.58.57.0 (H=11)8.5 (H=21)
13PROJ-Bloom2240.20003.65.64.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=10)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3100)

10vs JAX1610001-40-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4
11vs TEN2122900000.
12vs MIA32434900004.
13PROJ-Dodds2220.10002.84.83.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay2170.10202.54.53.6 (H=3)4.6 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom2210.10002.74.73.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=9)

Ryan Grant (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3200)

10vs JAX2811600000.
11vs TEN24321500001.
12vs MIA2711300000.
13PROJ-Dodds1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom1500000.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+1.2)28T (+0.3)17 (+0.8)16 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.6)28 (+7.4)30 (+7.6)27T (+7.4)
10Eric Ebron213369225.128.126.628.1
11Vance McDonald52632718.711.710.211.7
12Jason Croom29321601.

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4200)

10vs JAX213369225.128.126.628.1
11vs TEN250000000.00.0
12vs MIA497545216.521.519.021.5
13PROJ-Dodds4530.68.912.910.9 (H=22)12.9 (H=39)
13PROJ-Tremblay3300. (H=10)8.4 (H=18)
13PROJ-Bloom5540.79.614.612.1 (H=26)14.6 (H=49)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2500)

10vs JAX23422818.810.89.810.8
11vs TEN261000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1160. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)

Erik Swoope (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

13PROJ-Dodds000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.6)22T (+0.6)21T (+0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.1)2 (-3.1)1 (-3.9) (+0.0)
10Adam Vinatieri0133333.03.0
11Chris Boswell0022222.02.0
12Steve Hauschka1133666.06.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs JAX0133333.03.0
11vs TEN1155888.08.0
12vs MIA23339910.010.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (+1.0)16T (+1.0)26 (+2.3)26 (+2.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.2)16 (-0.2)16T (+0.0)16T (+0.0)
10Indianapolis Colts2641500100222.02.0
11Pittsburgh Steelers1624360100889.09.0
12Buffalo Bills2133332000777.07.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2600)

10vs JAX26.0041500100222.02.0
11vs TEN10.00263520009913.013.0
12vs MIA24.0031410100333.03.0
13PROJ-Dodds22.103472.40.80.700. (H=19)8.5 (H=31)
13PROJ-Tremblay21.753662.40.80.800. (H=20)8.7 (H=32)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.2)17 (-0.2)17 (-0.3)16 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.1)10 (-2.2)11 (-1.8)12 (-1.7)
10Blake Bortles7526383202028024.824.821.624.6
11Blaine Gabbert281116118110008.
12Ryan Tannehill53172520420314019.619.617.617.6

Cody Kessler (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

13PROJ-Dodds23352411.40.9370.1181818.0 (H=49)18.0 (H=66)
13PROJ-Tremblay23362661.40.85100.119.719.719.7 (H=58)19.7 (H=77)
13PROJ-Bloom17281581126011.511.511.5 (H=22)11.5 (H=30)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.2)23 (+1.7)20 (+0.7)20 (+1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+1.6)22T (+2.9)21T (+2.4)20T (+2.3)
10Leonard Fournette39245315556122.927.925.427.9
10T.J. Yeldon273120655106.311.38.811.3
11Derrick Henry21946000004.
11Dion Lewis441024021803.
12Kenyan Drake2483216564121.626.624.126.6
12Frank Gore2914670211007.

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3300)

10@ IND935000000.
11vs PIT11844000004.
12@ BUF161033000003.
13PROJ-Dodds16630.5213010.612.611.6 (H=27)12.6 (H=48)
13PROJ-Tremblay17650.519010.411.410.9 (H=25)11.4 (H=41)
13PROJ-Bloom15560.30007.47.47.4 (H=12)7.4 (H=19)

T.J. Yeldon (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4400)

10@ IND273120655106.311.38.811.3
11vs PIT23523032903.
12@ BUF243160421703.
13PROJ-Dodds7290.25380. (H=29)14.1 (H=44)
13PROJ-Tremblay6230.16500.39.715.712.7 (H=34)15.7 (H=53)
13PROJ-Bloom5210.14320. (H=19)11.1 (H=29)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.1)8 (-4.5)7 (-4.3)7 (-5.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-5.5)5 (-9.8)5 (-8.2)5 (-11.1)
10Donte Moncrief614398100015.818.817.318.8
10Dede Westbrook6010530021304.
11Tajae Sharpe58753710009.714.712.214.7
11Corey Davis58423001-
12Leonte Carroo222174100013.414.413.914.4
12Danny Amendola14111300001.

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

10@ IND6010530021304.
11vs PIT48421900001.
12@ BUF5043441143014.717.716.217.7
13PROJ-Dodds4460.31306.710.78.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay4510.31307.211.29.3 (H=17)11.3 (H=29)
13PROJ-Bloom5410.30005.910.98.5 (H=15)11.0 (H=28)

Donte Moncrief (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4500)

10@ IND614398100015.818.817.318.8
11vs PIT50211100001.
12@ BUF53412900002.
13PROJ-Dodds3460.20005.88.87.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=19)
13PROJ-Tremblay3490.20006.19.17.6 (H=12)9.1 (H=20)
13PROJ-Bloom4490.30006.710.78.7 (H=16)10.7 (H=26)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ IND220000000000.00.0
11vs PIT160000000000.00.0
12@ BUF492000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds2270.10003.35.34.3 (H=5)5.3 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay2300.10003.65.64.6 (H=6)5.6 (H=13)
13PROJ-Bloom2210.10002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)

Rashad Greene (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ IND8111100001.12.1-0.41.1
12@ BUF140000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1900000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
13PROJ-Tremblay1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

10@ IND442000000000.00.0
11vs PIT36521500001.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.9)24 (+2.4)19 (+1.1)22 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.8)21 (+1.7)18 (-0.2)21 (+1.3)
10James OShaughnessy52654604.
11Jonnu Smith42864404.410.47.410.4
12Durham Smythe10222702.

James OShaughnessy (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

10@ IND52654604.
11vs PIT5521400.
12@ BUF572000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3270. (H=9)6.9 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay3320. (H=10)7.4 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ IND27322702.
11vs PIT250000000.00.0
12@ BUF1611500.
13PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (+1.7)11T (+1.7)30 (+1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.7)11T (-0.7)11T (-0.5) (+0.0)
10Josh Lambo23238810.010.0
11Ryan Succop1111445.05.0
12Jason Sanders1133666.06.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ IND23238810.010.0
11vs PIT3311101012.012.0
12@ BUF0133333.03.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.6)20 (+0.6)7 (-2.0)7 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.9)5T (-2.9)3 (-4.6)3 (-4.6)
10Jacksonville Jaguars2936601000221.01.0
11Tennessee Titans383970000000-4.0-4.0
12Miami Dolphins2745512100777.07.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2400)

10@ IND29.0036601000221.01.0
11vs PIT20.0032323000889.09.0
12@ BUF24.0032700000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds26.00382210.600. (H=17)7.4 (H=26)
13PROJ-Tremblay25.753592.310.600. (H=18)7.7 (H=28)