Matchup Analysis: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Browns 21, Texans 27

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense23.0 (-1.2) (18)129 (+15) (9)225 (-22) (23)
Texans Defense20.2 (-4.0) (5)97 (-16) (7)237 (-11) (11)

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense24.8 (+0.7) (14)137 (+23) (4)237 (-11) (19)
Browns Defense25.7 (+1.6) (22)132 (+18) (28)284 (+35) (29)

Browns Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Nick Chubb has provided a nice spark to the Browns rushing attack since the Carlos Hyde trade. While Hyde is a fine player, he is not one that is going to be a long run threat which is something that we have seen from Chubb this season. Volume is something that has been consistent with Chubb since the Hyde trade as he has seen 18 carries or more in each of his last five games and since former Running Back Coach Freddie Kitchens has taken over as the Offensive Coordinator, Chubb has averaged 23.3 carries per game.

The Texans run defense is rounding into one of the best in the NFL. This is a unit that has only allowed one running back to rush for over 75 yards this season and is made up of one of the best front sevens in football led by J.J. Watt on the defensive line and Benardrick McKinney at the linebacker position. On the season it is a near perfect unit that has been a major reason why the Texans have won eight games in a row heading into the contest against the Browns. This is a unit that will likely cause the Browns to struggle this week.

Browns Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Baker Mayfield under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens has been a completely different quarterback than the one that we saw with Todd Haley. Part of that is schedule based and not all on Kitchens as the Browns have had one of the easier schedules when it comes to opposing defense over the last several weeks, but Mayfield has taken fewer sacks since the team moved Greg Robinson to left tackle, and is not making the same turnover decisions that he made earlier in the year. Since Kitchens has taken over, Mayfield has thrown nine touchdowns to just one interception and spreads the ball around to a variety of different receivers completing passes to eight receivers last week on just 19 receptions.

Houstonís pass defense is one that is has been mostly a tough unit on the season, but they are coming off of a down week allowing Marcus Mariota to complete 22 of 23 passes for 303 yards. Prior to this game, this was a defense that had allowed just one quarterback to throw for over 300 yards (Andrew Luck with 464 yards) and just two quarterbacks to throw for more than two touchdowns. Overall, this remains a talented unit with slot corner Kareem Jackson who is having a career season which should cause havoc for Jarvis Landry this week. This is a defense that plays a lot of Dime package with Tyrann Mathieu sliding down to cover the tight end which was something they did not do much against the run-heavy Titans, but expect them to get back to their stingy pass defense.

Texans Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Lamar Miller continues to show a spark and is a big reason that the Texans are on their eight-game winning streak. Over his last five games, Miller has run for an average of 100 yards per game. The offensive line remains an issue for the Texans as Julien Davenport has been one of the worst left tackles in football, but it remains a significantly better run blocking unit than a pass blocking unit as Matt Bitonti has graded this unit as a B- as a run blocking unit and a D+ as a pass blocking unit.

The Browns rushing attack is significantly better with Joe Schobert back and healthy, but it is nowhere near a perfect unit. The biggest issue for the Browns is that the defensive line continues to get run stops in the backfield as they have lacked a consistent push outside of Myles Garrett this season. Trevon Coley and Emmanuel Ogbah have both struggled with consistency throughout the season which have led to the Browns struggles at times. This is an up and down unit and when it is bad it is very bad as they have allowed four running backs to rush for over 130 yards and five running backs to score two touchdowns or more in a game. If the offensive line for Houston can handle this defensive line it could make for a long day for this Browns rushing attack.

Texans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Browns defense.

DeShaun Watson has not been the same quarterback since being injured against the Bills back on October 14th. Watson averaged 324 yards prior to the injury, and since the injury is averaging just 197 yards per game. The good news for the Texans is that they are starting to integrate Demaryius Thomas and it is more out of necessity than anything else as they lost Keke Coutee to injury last week in addition to Will Fuller earlier this season. The Texans may get Coutee back this week which would be a nice addition to the slot for the Texans to compliment Deandre Hopkins and Thomas.

The Browns pass defense has been one in which has not been great on the season as they are allowing 298 yards passing per game which is the fourth most in the NFL. Part of this has to do with the Browns facing the second most pass attempts per game on the year, but it has also been an oft-injured unit as E.J. Gaines and Terrance Mitchell both have been lost for the year which has forced T.J. Carrie to slide to the outside and Briean Boddy-Calhoun to slide into the slot. The Browns shadow both of their corners, so it is likely the T.J. Carrie, will shadow Demaryius Thomas as he typically takes the bigger receiver while Deandre Hopkins will get the Browns best corner in Denzel Ward.

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-2.1)6T (-2.1)6 (-2.1)6 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.7)13 (-0.7)13 (-0.5)15 (-0.4)
9Case Keenum6626422901000018.518.515.615.6
11Colt McCoy246125410535010.
12Marcus Mariota55222330320628026.026.022.925.9

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $5600)

10vs ATL53172021630620024.824.822.622.6
12@ CIN641926258404-4028.528.525.925.9
13PROJ-Dodds22362561.50.93120.119.719.719.7 (H=46)19.7 (H=62)
13PROJ-Tremblay22352401.313130. (H=40)18.1 (H=53)
13PROJ-Bloom172521020.8380. (H=44)19.1 (H=59)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.9)10 (-2.7)10 (-3.0)10 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-5.7)7 (-5.7)4 (-6.9)6 (-7.0)
9Phillip Lindsay3817600322408.410.49.410.4
9Devontae Booker26315142908.410.47.49.4
11Adrian Peterson4216512000017.
11Kapri Bibbs1610032600.
12Derrick Henry278300321904.
12Dion Lewis29780773304.111.17.611.1

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7000)

10vs ATL422017613333132.935.934.438.9
12@ CIN46288413344124.827.826.327.8
13PROJ-Dodds21890.62190.1151716.0 (H=31)17.0 (H=38)
13PROJ-Tremblay21890.62120.114.316.315.3 (H=29)16.3 (H=35)
13PROJ-Bloom20810.82210. (H=35)18.2 (H=43)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4400)

10vs ATL1731504431110.614.612.614.6
12@ CIN182160212303.
13PROJ-Dodds3110.14390.26.810.88.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=28)
13PROJ-Tremblay2703230. (H=6)6.6 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom3170.13330.48119.5 (H=18)11.0 (H=28)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.2)7 (-5.0)6 (-4.8)6 (-5.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-7.7)3 (-11.6)3 (-9.6)3 (-12.6)
9Courtland Sutton56535700005.
9Emmanuel Sanders61964700004.710.77.710.7
11Trey Quinn53444901004.
11Josh Doctson64733200003.
12Corey Davis5344961139019.523.521.523.5
12Cameron Batson28111300001.

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5300)

10vs ATL36522200002.
12@ CIN3953300000364.56.0
13PROJ-Dodds5540.30007.212.29.7 (H=18)12.2 (H=28)
13PROJ-Tremblay4460.20005.89.87.8 (H=12)9.8 (H=19)
13PROJ-Bloom3320.31805.88.87.3 (H=11)8.8 (H=16)

Antonio Callaway (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4100)

10vs ATL39223900003.
12@ CIN385462100012.
13PROJ-Dodds3420.20005.48.47.0 (H=10)8.5 (H=19)
13PROJ-Tremblay3370.20004.97.96.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=17)
13PROJ-Bloom3450.40006.99.98.5 (H=14)10.0 (H=26)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

10vs ATL22112810008.
12@ CIN20312400002.
13PROJ-Dodds2240.1000354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay2290.20004.16.15.1 (H=7)6.1 (H=13)
13PROJ-Bloom1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs ATL13223300003.
12@ CIN3511601-120-0.60.4-0.10.4
13PROJ-Dodds1200.10002.63.63.1 (H=3)3.6 (H=6)
13PROJ-Tremblay2290.21304.46.45.4 (H=8)6.4 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)

Damion Ratley (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs ATL20000000000.00.0
12@ CIN20000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.2)27T (+3.1)27 (+2.5)27 (+3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+8.9)32 (+12.7)32 (+10.9)32 (+12.7)
9Jeff Heuerman47111083114.324.319.324.3
11Jordan Reed5011771113.120.116.620.1
12Jonnu Smith422263112.314.313.314.3

David Njoku (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4300)

10vs ATL35111801.
12@ CIN435563112.317.314.817.3
13PROJ-Dodds4450.36.310.38.3 (H=14)10.3 (H=26)
13PROJ-Tremblay4390. (H=12)9.7 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom4510. (H=19)12.1 (H=34)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-0.2)5T (-0.2)3T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.4)5T (-2.4)3T (-2.9) (+0.0)
9Brandon McManus1322556.06.0
11Dustin Hopkins0133333.03.0
12Ryan Succop1122555.05.0

Greg Joseph (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs ATL0044444.04.0
12@ CIN0055555.05.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-0.5)12T (-0.5)16T (-0.6)16T (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.2)16T (+0.0)16T (+0.0)
9Denver Broncos1929040000445.05.0
11Washington Redskins23320321009910.010.0
12Tennessee Titans3446240000443.03.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2300)

10vs ATL16.0038220200669.09.0
12@ CIN20.0037211100558.08.0
13PROJ-Dodds25.603812.410.600. (H=21)7.8 (H=30)
13PROJ-Tremblay26.7537120.90.600.4777.0 (H=18)7.0 (H=25)

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.9)22 (+0.9)19 (+0.3)21 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.1)31 (+7.1)31 (+6.0)31 (+7.4)
9Patrick Mahomes64233237531218031.631.627.830.8
10Matt Ryan75385233020313025.825.820.524.5
12Jeff Driskel4417291551039118.718.717.117.1

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6100)

11@ WAS6316242081237013.
12vs TEN65192421020970131.531.529.429.4
13PROJ-Dodds21332551.815310. (H=58)23.2 (H=75)
13PROJ-Tremblay19302331.80.96300. (H=53)22.1 (H=69)
13PROJ-Bloom162420420.64250.221.321.321.3 (H=50)21.3 (H=65)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+4.1)22T (+4.2)21T (+3.9)20T (+4.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+1.6)22 (+2.9)21 (+2.4)20 (+2.3)
9Kareem Hunt50179122150132.133.132.633.1
9Spencer Ware142120546908.
10Tevin Coleman4911440531906.
10Ito Smith224110541502.
12Joe Mixon53148907766015.522.519.022.5
12Giovani Bernard231100111202.

Lamar Miller (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4600)

11@ WAS46208605322010.813.812.313.8
12vs TEN40121621115022.723.723.226.7
13PROJ-Dodds15660.52200. (H=27)14.2 (H=43)
13PROJ-Tremblay15690.42180.111.713.712.7 (H=25)13.7 (H=40)
13PROJ-Bloom16690.52160. (H=27)14.1 (H=42)

Alfred Blue (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

11@ WAS18846000004.
12vs TEN2613490111306.
13PROJ-Dodds9350.30005.35.35.3 (H=7)5.3 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay10400.31506.37.36.8 (H=11)7.3 (H=17)
13PROJ-Bloom7250.10003.13.13.1 (H=3)3.1 (H=4)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.2)26 (+3.7)23 (+2.4)26 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.1)21 (+3.2)21 (+1.6)21 (+2.9)
9Tyreek Hill625469021608.512.510.512.5
9Sammy Watkins49556201206.411.48.911.4
10Julio Jones73117107100016.723.720.226.7
10Mohamed Sanu70864700004.710.75.79.7
12Tyler Boyd728785100014.521.518.021.5
12John Ross68733110009.112.110.612.1

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $8200)

11@ WAS636556100011.616.612.115.6
12vs TEN64657400007.412.49.912.4
13PROJ-Dodds7970.700013.920.917.4 (H=32)20.9 (H=47)
13PROJ-Tremblay6840.700012.618.615.6 (H=26)18.6 (H=38)
13PROJ-Bloom691100015.121.118.1 (H=34)21.1 (H=47)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4300)

11@ WAS461000000000.00.0
12vs TEN545438200015.819.817.819.8
13PROJ-Dodds4470.30006.510.58.5 (H=15)10.5 (H=27)
13PROJ-Tremblay3400.30005.88.87.3 (H=11)8.8 (H=20)
13PROJ-Bloom4510.60008.712.710.7 (H=22)12.7 (H=37)

Keke Coutee (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4700)

11@ WAS42957700007.712.710.212.7
12vs TEN27221400001.
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay3360.30005.48.46.9 (H=10)8.4 (H=16)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.0)25 (+2.6)23 (+1.6)25 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.0)30 (+8.9)29 (+7.0)30 (+8.8)
9Travis Kelce619799221.928.925.428.9
10Austin Hooper61111056111.621.616.621.6
12C.J. Uzomah741363903.

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ WAS470000000.00.0
12vs TEN43433803.
13PROJ-Dodds2190. (H=5)5.1 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay1170. (H=2)3.3 (H=6)
13PROJ-Bloom2240. (H=6)5.6 (H=15)

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ WAS18224204.
12vs TEN2511800.
13PROJ-Dodds2190. (H=5)5.1 (H=13)
13PROJ-Tremblay2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom11301.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Jordan Thomas (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2800)

11@ WAS34111101.
12vs TEN3321600.
13PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-0.6)5T (-0.6)9 (-0.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.4)5 (-2.4)3T (-2.9) (+0.0)
9Harrison Butker1145777.07.0
10Giorgio Tavecchio1111445.05.0
12Randy Bullock0123222.02.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ WAS3522111113.013.0
12vs TEN2244101012.012.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.1)16T (-0.1)19 (+0.0)19 (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-3.9)3T (-3.9)2 (-5.0)2 (-5.0)
9Kansas City Chiefs2138821000446.06.0
10Atlanta Falcons2842701000221.01.0
12Cincinnati Bengals353420000000-4.0-4.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2700)

11@ WAS21.0027852001151515.015.0
12vs TEN17.00365601008811.011.0
13PROJ-Dodds20.903612.810.600.5101010.0 (H=24)10.0 (H=39)
13PROJ-Tremblay20.753522.310.500. (H=21)9.3 (H=35)