Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bills 18, Dolphins 23

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense14.6 (-9.5) (31)114 (+0) (17)160 (-87) (31)
Dolphins Defense25.7 (+1.6) (23)140 (+26) (29)258 (+10) (21)

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense20.3 (-3.9) (25)107 (-6) (20)207 (-40) (27)
Bills Defense24.7 (+0.6) (17)111 (-2) (15)194 (-54) (1)

Bills Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

LeSean McCoy doesn’t look “done,” but he’s no longer able to consistently carry the Bills offense. From Weeks 7-9, he tallied just 24 yards over 24 attempts. He then shredded the Jets in Week 10, but came back to earth last Sunday (17 for 46) against Jacksonville’s stout defense. Simply put, McCoy just isn’t much of a weapon right now. His best qualities – short-area quickness and creativity as an open-field runner – don’t matter much behind the Bills’ bottom-tier offensive line. The team’s predictable ground game has been supplemented of late, though, with speedster Marcus Murphy and quarterback Josh Allen working their way into usage. Murphy has averaged 5.50 yards per carry as the change-of-pace back, and Allen turned 12 rushes into 100 yards and 1 touchdown against Jacksonville. This is never an easy unit to project success for, considering the woeful state of the line and passing game. But in favorable matchups like this one, there are often chunks of productivity, and McCoy could be in for a rebound. Allen is the wild card – he’s a fine athlete with good running instincts and could certainly rumble to another big day.

The Dolphins simply can’t stop anyone on the ground. On the year, they’ve given the NFL’s third-most rushing yards (139 a game) at the seventh-highest mark per rush (4.81). Over the past 2 months they’ve allowed massive fantasy days to Kerryon Johnson (158 yards), Lamar Miller (133 and 1 touchdown), and Aaron Jones (145 and 2). That’s to say nothing of the merely “good” lines posted by Joe Mixon (93), LeGarrette Blount (50 and 1), and Marlon Mack (85). With a mediocre line and terrible linebacking play, it’s not hard to see why. Power backs are easily grinding out tough yardage, while quick-footed runners keep finding wide lanes into the secondary. Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy, Marcus Murphy, and Josh Allen project for their easiest running days in quite some time.

Bills Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Clearly, in the case of rookie quarterback Josh Allen, less is more. Allen has flashed dynamism with his legs and captained two impressive upset wins, but has yet to generate any passing production to speak of. Through 7 NFL starts, Allen has completed just 53% of his throws and averaged a pitiful 142 yards per game. He sits dead last among 34 qualifying passers in adjusted net yards per attempt, which factors in sacks, touchdowns, and interceptions. But the Bills’ anemic passing game can’t be blamed solely on Allen. There’s still a striking lack of talent and dynamism in his receiving corps. Lead receiver Zay Jones averages just 36 yards a game, while Kelvin Benjamin continues to struggle for consistency. He’s topped 50 yards just once all year and hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2. Undrafted rookie Robert Foster has provided a few big catches over the past 2 weeks, but is a low-volume guy – even for this offense – who relies on busted coverages. In all, this unit is strictly hands-off for fantasy purposes. Allen has flashed a few impressive traits, but he and his weapons remain miles from statistical relevance.

The 2018 Miami pass defense has been a tale of two units. In 2 matchups against Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, they’ve given up just 58% completions and 7.04 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, all other passers have completed 70% of their throws at 8.56. The per-game numbers (269 yards) haven’t been terrible, as the Dolphins are often “saved” by game script and a slow pace that drags down everyone’s volume. But as long as quarterbacks are allowed to operate at such high levels of efficiency, there’s always a big play – and a big game – around the corner. Andrew Luck’s Week 12 gem (30 of 37 for 343 yards and 3 touchdowns) was a shining example of what a good passer can do in this matchup. There are positives: Xavien Howard continues to flash shutdown ability at times, and the unit as a whole sits second league-wide with 17 interceptions. But this is still far too permissive a unit to scare off any fantasy prospects. As Luck showed last week, passers can generally recover from those interceptions quickly.

Dolphins Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bills defense.

At age 34, Frank Gore continues to churn out efficient, no-nonsense running. In fact, his 4.54-yard per-carry average stands as his highest mark since 2012. Even behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines (our Matt Bitonti ranks it 29th), Gore continues to work his way forward into solid yardage. Clearly, coach Adam Gase appreciates his efficiency more than the Kenyan Drake’s dynamism. Drake is no more than a change-of-pace back in this scheme – he’s averaging 4.58 in his own right, but lacks Gore’s consistency and dependability. Going forward, Gore should continue to lead the run-game charge, though his ultimate upside is always capped by the Dolphins’ lack of volume and touchdown opportunity. The best outcome for fantasy players would be Drake claiming a bigger role and building on his success, but as it stands, that’s likely not in the cards.

The Buffalo run defense remains an up-and-down unit, strong one week but easily beaten the next. They’ve shut down the likes of Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller, and Jordan Howard, but been gashed by Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, and Leonard Fournette. The big problems tend to lie on the second and third levels of the defense. Things remain stout up front with Kyle Williams, Star Lotulelei, and Jordan Phillips forming a great interior rotation. But rookie Tremaine Edmunds remains shaky in the middle, and the secondary is built primarily to defend the downfield pass. Ground touchdowns are plentiful in this matchup as well – they’ve already allowed 15 on the year, seventh-most in football.

Dolphins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Ryan Tannehill’s Week 12 return to action was rather unceremonial. Stepping back in after 5 missed games, Tannehill looked scarcely better than Brock Osweiler, generating just 204 yards and having several bad throws nearly picked off. 36% of his yardage came on a single deep jump-ball to Leonte Carroo; aside from that, Tannehill had little impact on the game. Some of the blame falls on coach Adam Gase, who refuses to trust his passing game to do much of anything beyond short drag routes and dump-offs. And some is reserved for the beaten-up receiving corps, which lacks spark plugs Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson and offers little dynamism for Tannehill. All told, this unit is unimaginative and lacks impact at the moment, depending mostly upon blown coverages and after-catch running. Tannehill has averaged just 196 yards over his 6 starts, and a date with the Bills’ punishing pass defense doesn’t look very friendly.

The Buffalo pass defense has looked like the league’s most dominant unit over the past month. Of course, it’s helped tremendously to face Mitchell Trubisky, Josh McCown, and Blake Bortles over that span. But even the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson have struggled for efficiency in this matchup, and there’s no denying just how aggressive and high-impact this unit continues to be. The superstar is cornerback Tre’Davious White, who’s been one of the NFL’s premier shutdown men since around the midpoint of last season. White continues to erase half the field from the gameplan, and he’s the primary reason only 2 opposing wideouts (DeAndre Hopkins and Julian Edelman) have reached 50 yards over the last 7 games. Jerry Hughes leads a pass rush that’s a bit inconsistent, but often dynamic off the edges. There are just too many playmakers on this defense for quarterbacks to get comfortable, not much room downfield when they’re able to get throws off.

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.1)14 (-1.0)14 (-0.9)15 (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.0)8 (-2.7)8 (-2.6)8 (-2.4)
9Sam Darnold662139229040007.
10Aaron Rodgers57192819920621020.
12Andrew Luck6930373433225028.

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5300)

12vs JAX58819160101399127.927.926.326.3
13PROJ-Dodds18312000.917340.317.817.817.8 (H=43)17.8 (H=55)
13PROJ-Tremblay17301930.90.96300.317.217.217.2 (H=40)17.2 (H=52)
13PROJ-Bloom12221530.80.76300.516.216.216.2 (H=36)16.2 (H=46)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.5)28 (+4.7)28 (+4.2)28 (+4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.2)16 (-0.5)17 (-0.9)17 (-0.5)
9Elijah McGuire367300533706.
9Isaiah Crowell2313490211106.
10Aaron Jones421514525327029.232.230.735.2
10Jamaal Williams1433000000.
12Marlon Mack3615850221109.611.610.611.6
12Nyheim Hines269280222205.

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4900)

10@ NYJ49261132115023.824.824.327.8
12vs JAX371746011705.
13PROJ-Dodds15600.33220.110.613.612.1 (H=26)13.6 (H=37)
13PROJ-Tremblay16650.33230. (H=28)14.2 (H=40)
13PROJ-Bloom18750.32180.111.713.712.7 (H=28)13.7 (H=37)

Chris Ivory (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

12vs JAX19314000001.
13PROJ-Dodds6220.111003.84.84.3 (H=5)4.8 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay7280.111204.65.65.1 (H=7)5.6 (H=11)
13PROJ-Bloom6260.10003.23.23.2 (H=3)3.2 (H=4)

Marcus Murphy (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

10@ NYJ241469000006.
12vs JAX20000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay0201600.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
13PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.4)9 (-2.7)10 (-1.7)11 (-2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.6)12 (-4.5)8 (-4.5)12 (-4.5)
9Quincy Enunwa48434000004.
9Robby Anderson47643201103.
10Davante Adams537457200017.721.719.721.7
10Marquez Valdes-Scantling54764400004.410.47.410.4
12T.Y. Hilton60107125000012.519.516.022.5
12Chester Rogers32434900004.

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3600)

10@ NYJ6211893100015.323.319.323.3
12vs JAX551000000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=11)8.1 (H=20)
13PROJ-Tremblay3430.20005.58.57.0 (H=12)8.5 (H=22)
13PROJ-Bloom3320.20004.47.45.9 (H=9)7.4 (H=17)

Kelvin Benjamin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

10@ NYJ373000000000.00.0
12vs JAX23213200003.
13PROJ-Dodds3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=21)
13PROJ-Tremblay1180.10002.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)

Robert Foster (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3300)

10@ NYJ3343105000010.513.512.016.5
12vs JAX333294100015.417.416.417.4
13PROJ-Dodds2310.10003.75.74.7 (H=5)5.7 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay2270.10003.35.34.3 (H=4)5.3 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom3450.20005.78.77.2 (H=11)8.7 (H=25)

Isaiah McKenzie (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

10@ NYJ71114033204.
12vs JAX33321102817.
13PROJ-Dodds1120.11502.33.32.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay1190.11402.93.93.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=6)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.8)22 (+2.0)25 (+1.9)21 (+1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.3)26 (+5.8)26 (+5.1)26 (+5.8)
9Chris Herndon42446206.
10Marcedes Lewis10113003.
12Eric Ebron497545216.521.519.021.5

Jason Croom (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ NYJ440000666.06.0
12vs JAX29321601.
13PROJ-Dodds2180. (H=4)4.4 (H=10)
13PROJ-Tremblay1150. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom2270. (H=6)5.3 (H=14)

Logan Thomas (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ NYJ3011100.
12vs JAX311000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Charles Clay (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

13PROJ-Dodds000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
13PROJ-Tremblay2160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
13PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.6)22T (+0.6)28 (+1.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.6)19T (+0.6)22 (+1.1) (+0.0)
9Jason Myers2300669.09.0
10Mason Crosby1144777.07.0
12Adam Vinatieri23339910.010.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ NYJ2255111113.013.0
12vs JAX1133666.06.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (+1.2)16T (+1.2)25T (+1.6)25T (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.2)25 (+2.4)25 (+2.4)
9New York Jets1316840000448.08.0
10Green Bay Packers1229461100101014.014.0
12Indianapolis Colts2431410100333.03.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2900)

10@ NYJ10.00199320007711.011.0
12vs JAX21.0033332000777.07.0
13PROJ-Dodds22.303322.210.700. (H=23)9.3 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay22.753352.110.700.5999.0 (H=22)9.0 (H=31)

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-5.5)1 (-5.5)1 (-5.4)1 (-5.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-12.4)1 (-12.5)1 (-11.0)1 (-11.9)
9Mitchell Trubisky4812201351116010.410.49.09.0
10Josh McCown561734135021405.
12Blake Bortles70122312712639012.312.311.011.0

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4900)

12@ IND53172520420314019.619.617.617.6
13PROJ-Dodds20322271.512110. (H=45)18.1 (H=61)
13PROJ-Tremblay20322261.613120.118.518.518.5 (H=47)18.5 (H=63)
13PROJ-Bloom14251320.91313010.510.510.5 (H=17)10.5 (H=23)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.3)25 (+2.9)24 (+2.5)23 (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.2)21 (+1.9)20 (+2.2)19 (+1.2)
9Jordan Howard2614472000016.716.716.716.7
9Tarik Cohen2865021801.
10Isaiah Crowell197191221809.711.710.711.7
10Elijah McGuire326300632705.
12Leonard Fournette31189523313022.825.824.325.8
12Carlos Hyde161033000003.

Kenyan Drake (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4600)

10@ GB348270221103.
12@ IND2483216564121.626.624.126.6
13PROJ-Dodds8370.34290.29.613.611.6 (H=22)13.6 (H=39)
13PROJ-Tremblay7310.33260.28.711.710.2 (H=18)11.7 (H=30)
13PROJ-Bloom7260.34310.39.313.311.3 (H=21)13.3 (H=38)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3500)

10@ GB29139003212010.
12@ IND2914670211007.
13PROJ-Dodds15620.311009109.5 (H=17)10.0 (H=30)
13PROJ-Tremblay14580.311008.69.69.1 (H=16)9.6 (H=28)
13PROJ-Bloom15670.21708.69.69.1 (H=16)9.6 (H=28)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.2)1 (-7.7)1 (-7.1)1 (-8.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-11.6)1 (-17.2)1 (-14.3)1 (-18.2)
9Anthony Miller36654901905.810.88.310.8
9Taylor Gabriel44534500004.
10Quincy Enunwa54841800001.
10Jermaine Kearse50521600001.
12Dede Westbrook5043441143014.717.716.217.7
12Donte Moncrief53412900002.

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

10@ GB451154300004.
12@ IND2433100000142.54.0
13PROJ-Dodds3440.30006.29.27.7 (H=12)9.2 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay4560.30007.411.49.4 (H=17)11.4 (H=35)
13PROJ-Bloom4470.20005.99.97.9 (H=13)9.9 (H=27)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3800)

10@ GB65322600002.
12@ IND5141600000.
13PROJ-Dodds3400.30005.88.87.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay3420.3000697.5 (H=12)9.0 (H=23)
13PROJ-Bloom2210.20003.35.34.3 (H=4)5.3 (H=9)

Leonte Carroo (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

10@ GB161120011403.
12@ IND222174100013.414.413.914.4
13PROJ-Dodds2320.21304.76.75.7 (H=9)6.7 (H=17)
13PROJ-Tremblay2280.21504.56.55.5 (H=8)6.5 (H=17)
13PROJ-Bloom2210.20003.35.34.3 (H=5)5.3 (H=11)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.9)6T (-3.1)8T (-2.4)6T (-3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.0)4 (-6.5)5 (-5.2)4 (-6.6)
9Trey Burton40322818.810.89.810.8
10Chris Herndon36433403.
12Blake Bell1611500.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ GB2011500.
12@ IND3711500.51.5-1.00.5
13PROJ-Dodds2160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
13PROJ-Bloom1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

10@ GB2111500.
12@ IND300000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
13PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
13PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (+0.5)11T (+0.5)11T (+0.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.7)11 (-0.7)11 (-0.5) (+0.0)
9Cody Parkey2255111112.012.0
10Jason Myers1111446.06.0
12Josh Lambo0133333.03.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10@ GB4400121214.014.0
12@ IND1133666.06.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+3.4)32 (+3.4)32 (+6.5)32 (+6.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.4)30 (+4.4)25T (+2.4)25T (+2.4)
9Chicago Bears926443102303028.028.0
10New York Jets414511000011-3.0-3.0
12Jacksonville Jaguars2432700000000.00.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2700)

10@ GB31.0037720100445.05.0
12@ IND27.0045512100777.07.0
13PROJ-Dodds17.703222.410.800.510.710.710.7 (H=29)10.7 (H=44)
13PROJ-Tremblay17.2532320.910.10.611.411.411.4 (H=33)11.4 (H=50)