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Matchup Analysis: Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Redskins 24, Buccaneers 27

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Washington Redskins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Redskins Offense20.0 (-4.0) (25)122 (+11) (10)222 (-28) (24)
Buccaneers Defense34.4 (+10.3) (32)107 (-3) (15)307 (+56) (30)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Buccaneers Offense28.6 (+4.6) (7)90 (-20) (30)357 (+105) (1)
Redskins Defense21.5 (-2.5) (9)89 (-21) (5)254 (+3) (20)

Redskins Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Adrian Peterson’s comeback has indeed been impressive. The 33-year-old sits eighth leaguewide in rushing yards per game (76), topping 95 in 5 of 8 thus far. Peterson posted a dud last week (17 yards) in a cake matchup with Atlanta, but game flow was what doomed him most, as the Falcons ran away with the lead. That’s less of a concern against the Buccaneers, but Peterson is now working behind a severely banged-up line. Washington has now lost both guards to injured reserve and left tackle Trent Williams for 3-4 games, and right tackle Morgan Moses may not suit up Sunday. It’s a nightmare scenario for Peterson, who still has plenty of burst but typically needs a crease to erupt through. Peterson will remain the engine of the offense, but his efficiency looks poised to take a hit.

The Tampa Bay run defense is getting closer to full health, with Gerald McCoy back on the field and rookie tackle Vita Vea returning immediately from a knee injury. But it’s still trending downward after three bad performances in a row. The last 3 lead runners to take on the Buccaneers racked up 80, 123, and 79 yards, averaging 5.04 per rush and scoring 5 times. McCoy makes a big difference to this unit, and there’s reason for optimism as he recovers from a 2.5-game absence. But these linebackers were ho-hum even before Kwon Alexander was lost for the year, and second-level breakdowns are fairly common here.

Redskins Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Alex Smith has imported his sanitized, low-impact game from Kansas City to Jay Gruden’s Washington offense. He’s been moderately efficient, sitting 19th of 34 quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt. But he’s throwing downfield as little as usual – Washington has posted the league’s ninth-fewest completions of 20 yards or more – and there’s almost no dynamism in this grinding, clock-eating offense. Smith’s top targets each week are typically tight end Jordan Reed, fed a strict diet of short checkdowns, and the team’s pass-catching running backs. Smith is posting just 233 yards per game (with a high of 306 last week), and Reed leads the receivers with 43. With top deep threat Paul Richardson moved to injured reserve, there’s even less reason to get excited about this offense for fantasy purposes. Even if a shootout breaks loose, Smith simply doesn’t boast any statistical upside at all. He’s steady for Gruden, but a drain on fantasy lineups.

The Buccaneers continue to field the NFL’s worst pass defense. They’ve given up more air touchdowns (22) than anyone – and they’ve already had their bye – while allowing 6 of their 8 opponents to top 280 yards. Cam Newton didn’t need dazzling numbers in last week’s easy win, but he completed 19 of 25 passes and became the seventh quarterback to throw multiple scores against this resistance-free unit. The secondary is a mess, with only one competent cover man (35-year-old Brent Grimes) and a host of burnable faces. All told, this group has somehow allowed 17 different players to top 68 receiving yards: 3 running backs, 5 tight ends, and 9 wideouts. There is major fantasy opportunity on every level, and fantasy owners don’t want to be caught without at least one Buccaneer opponent on any given week.

Buccaneers Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

Peyton Barber continues to look like a thoroughly league-average runner, at best. He’s topped 69 yards 3 times thus far, yet fallen below 34 in each of the other 5 games. A relatively slow, plodding runner for a 225-pounder, Barber isn’t very powerful or elusive, and he doesn’t add much to the Tampa Bay offense. He’s merely better than Jacquizz Rodgers (and rookie Ronald Jones, when he’s healthy). This offense revolves around huge pass plays, and all it asks of Barber is to rumble ahead for three yards or so at a time. He’s coming through, barely (3.62), but carries almost no reason to expect upside. His line is shaky (graded at a C in run blocking by our Matt Bitonti), and his talent level doesn’t suggest he’d necessarily erupt through big holes anyway.

You’d never know it from last week, but Washington’s run defense has been among the league’s stingiest here in 2018. From Weeks 5-8, they’d faced a Murderer’s Row of top runners (Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley) but allowed them a paltry 168 yards combined (2.90 per carry). Then, Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith of the Falcons combined to rip off 148 last Sunday (on just 23 attempts). That’s no reason, though, to discount that tremendous run of success. Washington controls the line well with its young tackles, who border on the dominant, and a set of fast, athletic linebackers. Zach Brown is enjoying possibly his best season as a pro and could earn All-Pro recognition for his dizzying play in pursuit.

Buccaneers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

Not long ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick was a dazzling story, opening the year with 3 straight 400-yard performances and 11 touchdowns in the process. But reality is setting in for the 35-year-old, who has obviously tailed off from that pace. Fitzpatrick was held firmly in check last week by the Panthers, posting just 243 yards on 40 attempts. The touchdowns (four) were there, but without much all-around efficiency to speak of: Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Chris Godwin combined for just 88 yards on their 17 targets. There’s plenty of dynamite in this offense, which is packed with dominant downfield receivers and tight ends, plus a breakout slot man in Adam Humphries. But there’s not much consistency in their connections, which was on display last Sunday. Carolina sold out majorly on the deep ball, and with the pass rush in his face all day, Fitzpatrick routinely missed his deep men downfield. Simply put, this might be football’s most volatile passing game. On a given snap, Fitzpatrick is just as likely to throw a long, go-route touchdown as a terrible interception. If his front line doesn’t step up its game, he’ll spend the rest of his starting tenure wobbling in the pocket and throwing errant passes into traffic.

The Washington pass defense is spiraling right now. Ever since a solid Week 3 outing against Aaron Rodgers, they’ve allowed quarterbacks to complete 69% of their throws and average 315 yards. (All 5 topped 270, even Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.) Last week’s thrashing at the hands of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company, though, was the low point. The cornerbacks are fairly boom-or-bust, alternating between shutdown play and burnable lapses. Top cover man Quinton Dunbar has struggled of late with a knee injury, and former star Josh Norman has put as many bad plays on film as good. At least they’ve shut down tight ends definitively all year – not one has topped 48 yards in this matchup.

Buccaneers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.1)32 (+7.1)31 (+6.8)32 (+7.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.8)27 (+3.8)27 (+3.9)27 (+3.7)
6Matt Ryan67314135430113031.031.027.530.5
7Baker Mayfield68233421520443023.123.120.920.9
8Andy Dalton65213428020310023.
9Cam Newton621925247201133023.723.721.221.2

Alex Smith (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $5300)

7vs DAL60142517810416014.514.512.712.7
8@ NYG68203217810313014.214.212.412.4
9vs ATL69304630611122020.520.517.420.4
10PROJ-Dodds23352511.70.73150.221.421.421.4 (H=53)21.4 (H=76)
10PROJ-Tremblay21342471.60.94140.220.520.520.5 (H=49)20.5 (H=70)
10PROJ-Bloom20322021.60.53150. (H=39)18.1 (H=56)

Buccaneers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.9)26 (+5.0)25 (+4.9)28 (+5.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.5)26 (+3.2)27 (+4.1)27 (+3.5)
6Tevin Coleman3810350216110.111.110.611.1
6Ito Smith311122122-
7Nick Chubb4518801200014.
7Duke Johnson351-40442301.
8Joe Mixon552112324315025.828.827.331.8
8Mark Walton10270111001.
9Christian McCaffrey61177926578027.732.730.232.7
9Alex Armah1011100006.

Adrian Peterson (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5700)

7vs DAL3424990218010.711.711.211.7
8@ NYG41261491117127.628.626.130.6
9vs ATL329170331603.
10PROJ-Dodds18760.63180.113.616.615.1 (H=32)16.6 (H=45)
10PROJ-Tremblay19830.62200.114.516.515.5 (H=33)16.5 (H=45)
10PROJ-Bloom14450.53140.19.512.511.0 (H=18)12.5 (H=27)

Kapri Bibbs (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3600)

7vs DAL2321305443111.615.613.615.6
8@ NYG10000000000.00.0
9vs ATL213201111509.510.510.010.5
10PROJ-Dodds3110.13270.1586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay270.13210.1475.5 (H=7)7.0 (H=16)
10PROJ-Bloom3110.11100. (H=4)4.3 (H=6)

Samaje Perine (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs DAL222000000.
9vs ATL15220032802.
10PROJ-Dodds2701601.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay15011101.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Buccaneers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.5)31 (+8.9)31 (+7.7)31 (+9.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.2)26 (+7.0)26 (+6.1)26 (+7.2)
6Julio Jones511410143000014.324.319.327.3
6Mohamed Sanu332246100010.612.611.612.6
7Jarvis Landry67151097100015.725.720.725.7
7Damion Ratley40332300002.
8Tyler Boyd6010913811-2019.628.624.131.6
8A.J. Green617576100013.618.616.118.6
9Curtis Samuel1742251133117.819.818.819.8
9D.J. Moore532116013204.

Josh Doctson (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4300)

7vs DAL57634200004.
8@ NYG56554900004.
9vs ATL68633110009.112.110.612.1
10PROJ-Dodds4400.30005.89.87.8 (H=14)9.8 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay3410.30005.98.97.4 (H=13)8.9 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom4460.50007.611.69.6 (H=20)11.6 (H=32)

Maurice Harris (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs DAL36332200002.
8@ NYG5622200000243.04.0
9vs ATL601210124000012.422.417.425.4
10PROJ-Dodds4410.20005.39.37.3 (H=10)9.3 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay3350.20104.87.86.3 (H=8)7.8 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom5630.30008.113.110.6 (H=20)13.1 (H=44)

Michael Floyd (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs DAL3031200000232.53.0
8@ NYG90000000000.00.0
9vs ATL141000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4200)

10PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay2250.2130465.0 (H=5)6.0 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Buccaneers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.1)30 (+5.5)31 (+4.8)31 (+5.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.4)24 (+3.3)25 (+2.9)24 (+3.2)
6Austin Hooper5410971113.122.117.622.1
7David Njoku576452111.
8Jordan Franks1113203.
9Greg Olsen606676113.619.616.619.6

Jordan Reed (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4400)

7vs DAL41424304.
8@ NYG531273803.810.87.310.8
9vs ATL37643403.
10PROJ-Dodds5470. (H=19)12.1 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay4470. (H=17)11.1 (H=29)
10PROJ-Bloom4350. (H=12)9.3 (H=21)

Vernon Davis (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $2800)

7vs DAL270000000.00.0
8@ NYG33312102.
9vs ATL32756206.211.28.711.2
10PROJ-Dodds2280.2465.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=15)
10PROJ-Tremblay2220. (H=5)5.4 (H=13)
10PROJ-Bloom3340. (H=10)8.2 (H=27)

Buccaneers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.5)13T (-0.5)13T (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.5)13 (-0.5)13T (-0.4) (+0.0)
6Matt Bryant2244101013.013.0
7Greg Joseph0033333.03.0
8Randy Bullock1145778.08.0
9Graham Gano0066666.06.0

Dustin Hopkins (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs DAL2222888.08.0
8@ NYG23228810.010.0
9vs ATL0022222.02.0

Buccaneers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.4)31 (+3.4)27T (+2.8)27T (+2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.3)30 (+5.3)27T (+4.4)27T (+4.4)
6Atlanta Falcons2951222000665.05.0
7Cleveland Browns2645642210141414.014.0
8Cincinnati Bengals3457664001202019.019.0
9Carolina Panthers2830132000776.06.0

Washington Redskins (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs DAL17.0032340201202015.015.0
8@ NYG13.0030372000111115.015.0
9vs ATL38.0049121000440.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds25.903932.51.30.600. (H=21)7.9 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay27.254002.51.30.600. (H=20)7.7 (H=22)

Redskins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.4)25 (+1.5)24 (+1.1)25 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.2)28 (+4.2)26 (+3.5)28 (+4.5)
6Cam Newton60274027521943025.125.124.324.3
7Dak Prescott66223527310633127.
8Eli Manning7030473161200017.817.814.617.6
9Matt Ryan6826383504100032.532.529.032.0

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $5900)

8@ CIN25111519420118019.519.519.619.6
9@ CAR67244024342523028.528.526.026.0
10PROJ-Dodds25392942.11.24170.224.824.824.8 (H=68)24.8 (H=88)
10PROJ-Tremblay24382972.11.36230.225.425.425.4 (H=71)25.4 (H=91)
10PROJ-Bloom233728421.500020.720.720.7 (H=50)20.7 (H=64)

Redskins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.6)12 (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.0)6 (-3.2)8 (-3.4)5 (-3.7)
6Christian McCaffrey608200874606.613.610.113.6
6Alex Armah200000000.
7Ezekiel Elliott661533062904.
7Rod Smith000000000.
8Saquon Barkley681338010973011.120.115.620.1
8Elijhaa Penny200000000.
9Tevin Coleman39138807568227.632.630.132.6
9Ito Smith2810601214012.413.412.913.4

Peyton Barber (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs CLE35113002000333.03.0
8@ CIN4319851000014.514.514.514.5
9@ CAR35113103290465.06.0
10PROJ-Dodds13520.41608.29.28.7 (H=15)9.2 (H=26)
10PROJ-Tremblay15580.41809109.5 (H=18)10.0 (H=30)
10PROJ-Bloom14510.4150898.5 (H=15)9.0 (H=25)

Jacquizz Rodgers (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs CLE30380111101.
8@ CIN33140442502.
9@ CAR26214032-40132.03.0
10PROJ-Dodds4150.121003.15.14.1 (H=5)5.1 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay3120.12120354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom24021201.63.62.6 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)

Redskins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.1)25 (+2.9)22 (+1.7)22 (+2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.6)27 (+8.9)27 (+6.8)28 (+9.1)
6Devin Funchess588574100013.418.415.918.4
6Torrey Smith425543100010.315.314.817.3
7Michael Gallup565381100014.117.115.617.1
7Allen Hurns54657400007.412.49.912.4
8Odell Beckham67118136000013.621.617.624.6
8Bennie Fowler48744800004.
9Julio Jones55107121100018.125.121.628.1
9Calvin Ridley479671116013.719.716.719.7

Mike Evans (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $7000)

7vs CLE82117107000010.717.714.220.7
8@ CIN70136179100023.929.926.932.9
9@ CAR601011600001.
10PROJ-Dodds6810.500011.117.114.1 (H=26)17.1 (H=39)
10PROJ-Tremblay5790.500010.915.913.4 (H=23)15.9 (H=34)
10PROJ-Bloom5710.40009.514.512.0 (H=19)14.5 (H=29)

DeSean Jackson (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4900)

7vs CLE43522502819.311.310.311.3
8@ CIN468368114013.216.214.716.2
9@ CAR32423200003.
10PROJ-Dodds4610.31308.212.210.2 (H=17)12.2 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay3510.31307.210.28.7 (H=13)10.2 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom3490.40007.310.38.8 (H=13)10.3 (H=23)

Chris Godwin (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs CLE66655900005.910.98.410.9
8@ CIN63723200003.
9@ CAR3732400000465.06.0
10PROJ-Dodds4440.30006.210.28.2 (H=13)10.2 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay3420.3000697.5 (H=11)9.0 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom4520.30007119.0 (H=16)11.0 (H=31)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs CLE57843700003.
8@ CIN621077600007.614.611.114.6
9@ CAR558882217020.928.924.928.9
10PROJ-Dodds4350.30005.39.37.4 (H=11)9.4 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay4410.30206.110.18.2 (H=13)10.2 (H=28)
10PROJ-Bloom4410.40006.510.58.6 (H=14)10.6 (H=30)

Redskins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.3)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.2)13 (-2.1)12 (-2.1)13 (-2.2)
6Greg Olsen59744804.
7Geoff Swaim47332502.
8Evan Engram62952518.513.511.013.5
9Austin Hooper54334104.

O.J. Howard (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5300)

7vs CLE63956706.711.79.211.7
8@ CIN534468112.816.814.816.8
9@ CAR376453217.321.319.321.3
10PROJ-Dodds4470. (H=14)11.1 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay3390. (H=9)8.7 (H=15)
10PROJ-Bloom4540.58.412.410.4 (H=17)12.4 (H=29)

Cameron Brate (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2600)

7vs CLE39432302.
8@ CIN26211301.
9@ CAR27331501.
10PROJ-Dodds2130. (H=3)4.5 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay2140. (H=4)4.6 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Redskins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-2.4)1 (-2.4)1 (-2.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.3)7T (-1.3)6T (-1.9) (+0.0)
6Graham Gano1101333.03.0
7Brett Maher1222556.06.0
8Aldrick Rosas2211777.07.0
9Giorgio Tavecchio1155888.08.0

Chandler Catanzaro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs CLE23238810.010.0
8@ CIN2223888.08.0
9@ CAR0044444.04.0

Redskins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.8)4 (-2.8)8 (-2.2)8 (-2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-3.7)4T (-3.7)10T (-3.1)10T (-3.1)
6Carolina Panthers2328830000333.03.0
7Dallas Cowboys2030510000112.02.0
8New York Giants2036000100223.03.0
9Atlanta Falcons1436631000556.06.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2000)

7vs CLE23.0030550100777.07.0
8@ CIN37.0040220000221.01.0
9@ CAR42.004072000022-2.0-2.0
10PROJ-Dodds24.503702.20.80.700. (H=21)7.9 (H=35)
10PROJ-Tremblay24.253612.20.90.700. (H=22)8.1 (H=37)