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Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chargers 30, Raiders 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chargers Offense27.5 (+3.5) (11)129 (+18) (5)270 (+19) (12)
Raiders Defense31.5 (+7.5) (31)144 (+33) (32)263 (+11) (24)

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense17.6 (-6.4) (28)95 (-15) (25)259 (+7) (15)
Chargers Defense22.5 (-1.5) (12)112 (+1) (20)249 (-1) (18)

Chargers Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Entering this season, Melvin Gordon was assailed as a low-efficiency, one-speed runner who couldn’t be trusted to carry a productive run game. But anyone following his film could see a true breakout coming, and here it is. Saddled for years with a weak front line, Gordon is taking advantage of newfound creases to the tune of 5.41 yards per rush. He’s always produced breakaway runs at a strong level, but it’s been much easier with competent blocking up front. Gordon did a number on Seattle’s stout defensive front last Sunday, needing just 16 attempts to rack up 113 yards and a touchdown – his third 100-yard day over the Chargers’ last 4 games. A big reason for his success has been the explosive play of Austin Ekeler in the change-of-pace role. Ekeler averages 5.82 yards a carry himself and allows Gordon plenty of downtime to keep fresh. The Raiders shut these two down back in Week 5, but there’s little reason to care about that. With this blend of speed and athleticism, opposing defenses are always on notice.

The Oakland front seven, despite a bevy of early-round picks spent on it, remains wildly undertalented and porous. The loss of Khalil Mack exposed what a low-impact group this is, struggling to contain speedy backs who are able to find a crease. On the year they’ve allowed runners to average a stunning 5.13 yards per carry, and 6 have been able to top 80 yards on the day. The unit isn’t bad up front, where veterans Jonathan Hankins and Frostee Rucker form a stout block-eating presence. But the ends often lose contain on the edges, and the linebackers are mostly special-teams types who offer little resistance on the second level. It’s worth noting that they did shut down these very Chargers in Week 5, allowing Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler just 73 yards on 25 attempts. But if either is given a lane or two Sunday, they should produce chunk runs on the same level as the typical Raiders opponent.

Chargers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Philip Rivers isn’t wowing anyone with big fantasy finishes, but he’s quietly putting together the most efficient season of his 15-year career. Low volume has doomed his stat lines of late, but he sits second league-wide with 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt – a career-high by a mile. Rivers is spreading the ball nicely among his bevy of playmakers, posting a respectable 280 yards a game, with multiple touchdowns in each outing thus far. He’s always a sound bet for low-end QB1 numbers, and there’s always upside for more. Armed with a handful of downfield threats, an intermediate dominator in Keenan Allen, and dynamic checkdowns underneath, Rivers projects beautifully whenever a shootout breaks out. Allen remains the crown jewel here, with a guaranteed weekly role and elite after-catch skills to maximize his opportunities. But there’s easily enough firepower here to spread around, and the Williamses (Tyrell and Mike) are ever-present threats to turn in splash plays.

Even after a ton of in-season shuffling, the Raiders pass defense remains one of the league’s worst. Opponents often get to ramp down their pass game against the 1-7 Raiders, but they’re allowing an NFL-high 8.6 net yards per attempt, with 16 touchdowns over the last 6 games. Much can be blamed on the anemic pass rush, which has produced a league-low seven sacks through eight games. But the secondary is full of burnable faces, like cornerbacks Gareon Conley and Daryl Worley, and free safety Marcus Gilchrist is one of the league’s weakest in coverage. And there’s very little resistance across the middle, where slot receivers and tight ends keep winning routes. Of late, they’ve allowed season-best performances to Keenan Allen (8 for 90), Doug Baldwin (6 for 91), and George Kittle (4 for 108 and 1 touchdown), mixed in with an unhealthy dose of big downfield plays.

Raiders Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Surprisingly, 29-year-old Doug Martin is running well in Jon Gruden’s lead role. Marshawn Lynch’s injury left the Raiders with precious little in terms of ground-game experience, and Martin took over the job by default. But he’s looked great, racking up 121 yards on 24 attempts (5.04 per) over 2 weeks as top dog. Martin ran all over the 49ers’ underrated run defense last Thursday, and he likely would’ve posted a big line had game flow not doomed him. It’s early to call this a comeback, of course, and Martin did average just 2.93 yards a carry over 2016-17 in Tampa Bay. But at least he’s looking spry and taking advantage of a front line that’s much better in run blocking than pass. The return of top lineman Kelechi Osemele was a huge boon last week; with him on board, this is a solid group that can keep opening creases. Martin doesn’t boast much upside, and his touchdown outlook is always poor in this shredded offense. But he’s at least as fantasy-relevant as Lynch was.

The Chargers run defense continues to be a moderate sore spot here in 2018. There have been a few successes, but opposing runners keep finding room, averaging a healthy 4.42 yards per rush. Tennessee’s Dion Lewis racked up a season-high 91 yards 2 weeks ago, and both Mike Davis and Chris Carson were efficient (23 for 102) for Seattle last Sunday. Poor tackling has been the main culprit of late, with linebackers Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown in particular simply bouncing off too many ballcarriers. The Chargers are doing a great job of controlling game flow and keeping runners disengaged, but this remains a fairly porous unit that determined backs can exploit.

Raiders Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Derek Carr’s nightmare trajectory reached a new low last Thursday night, ending with just 171 yards and 6 sacks to show for 3 quarters of play. He was eventually sat down in favor of A.J. McCarron. Now saddled with a porous front line and nothing but spare parts to throw to, it’s fair to wonder whether Carr will post another meaningful line for the Raiders all year. His top receiver is now Brandon LaFell, a mistake-prone veteran lacking in burst who’s produced just 59 yards over 7 targets in Oakland. Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, and Seth Roberts round out a receiving corps that projects to little of note. Carr can’t get off deep balls to them – he’s still shaky in the pocket and his line has fallen apart. The only success this passing game has seen has come from a sanitized, checkdown-based “attack” that piles up easy, low-impact completions. Aside from occasionally-productive tight end Jared Cook, there are simply too many upside options in fantasy football to chase any of these names anymore.

Even with star rusher Joey Bosa still sidelined, there’s plenty of playmaking dynamism to go around on this Chargers defense. The pass rush is diverse and explosive, and the secondary is full of ballhawks, so quarterbacks rarely have a good time in this matchup. Over their last 3 games they’ve allowed an average of just 237 yards, and they’ve only given up more than 268 twice all year. Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King form an imposing trio of cornerbacks, and rookie Derwin James has been active all over the field. Running backs, though, are putting up big numbers against the Chargers’ light front seven. Thanks in large part to the shutdown secondary, they’ve already allowed 5 different backs to notch 45 receiving yards or more.

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.3)24 (+1.3)25 (+1.4)23 (+0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.8)24 (+2.8)28 (+3.9)25 (+3.0)
6Russell Wilson64172322231620024.124.121.921.9
8Andrew Luck782231239302-2023.823.823.423.4
9Nick Mullens551622262304-3024.824.822.222.2

Philip Rivers (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $6000)

7vs TEN441926306201-1023.
9@ SEA5113262282000019.419.417.117.1
10PROJ-Dodds22342982.20.7120.123.823.823.8 (H=59)23.8 (H=80)
10PROJ-Tremblay21332731.90.9240.121.321.321.3 (H=48)21.3 (H=66)
10PROJ-Bloom17242452.20.5110.121.321.321.3 (H=48)21.3 (H=66)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.2)24 (+3.2)28 (+4.9)24 (+4.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.2)27 (+3.4)28 (+4.5)28 (+3.9)
6Rashaad Penny139430222707.
6Chris Carson271459000005.
8Marlon Mack492513224217026.928.927.931.9
8Nyheim Hines281178022708.510.59.510.5
9Raheem Mostert147861000014.614.614.614.6
9Matt Breida271244011304.

Melvin Gordon (FanDuel: $8900, DraftKings: $9000)

9@ SEA451611314110018.319.318.822.3
10PROJ-Dodds18840.95440.3202522.5 (H=49)25.0 (H=58)
10PROJ-Tremblay17800.85460.319.224.221.7 (H=46)24.2 (H=55)
10PROJ-Bloom17820.82170.215.917.916.9 (H=30)17.9 (H=32)

Austin Ekeler (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4000)

7vs TEN4212420752606.811.89.311.8
9@ SEA93210211303.
10PROJ-Dodds6330.23280.28.511.510.0 (H=18)11.5 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay7330.22210. (H=14)9.8 (H=26)
10PROJ-Bloom12580.22260.210.812.811.8 (H=24)12.8 (H=41)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.3)20 (+0.6)21 (+1.6)17 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.4)10 (-3.2)14 (-1.1)10T (-3.8)
6David Moore303247115011.
6Doug Baldwin48869100009.
8Dontrelle Inman58765200005.
8T.Y. Hilton64513400003.
9Pierre Garcon375356100011.614.613.114.6
9Kendrick Bourne1222610006.

Keenan Allen (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7100)

7vs TEN40557200007.212.29.712.2
9@ SEA431061240228015.
10PROJ-Dodds6850.5150121815.0 (H=27)18.0 (H=42)
10PROJ-Tremblay6810.4150111714.0 (H=24)17.0 (H=38)
10PROJ-Bloom5780.5111011.916.914.4 (H=25)16.9 (H=37)

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4500)

7vs TEN3644118100017.821.819.824.8
9@ SEA47322310008.310.39.310.3
10PROJ-Dodds3490.30006.79.78.2 (H=11)9.7 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay3410.30206.19.17.6 (H=10)9.1 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom3570.60009.312.310.8 (H=18)12.3 (H=34)

Mike Williams (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

7vs TEN303155113011.812.812.312.8
9@ SEA15313010009109.510.0
10PROJ-Dodds2430.30006.18.17.1 (H=11)8.1 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay2390.30105.87.86.8 (H=10)7.8 (H=18)
10PROJ-Bloom3440.50007.410.48.9 (H=16)10.4 (H=30)

Travis Benjamin (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs TEN5111300001.
9@ SEA1810001-20-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2
10PROJ-Dodds1140.11302.33.32.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay1110.1030232.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.1)27 (+2.9)28 (+3.0)27 (+3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+9.1)30 (+10.1)31 (+9.6)31 (+11.0)
6Tyrone Swoopes26112302.
8Jack Doyle577670113.
9George Kittle3344108116.820.818.823.8

Antonio Gates (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

7vs TEN13321101.
9@ SEA160000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds2180.2354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=12)
10PROJ-Tremblay2200. (H=5)5.2 (H=13)
10PROJ-Bloom1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)

Virgil Green (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs TEN321000000.00.0
9@ SEA34322802.
10PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom1130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+1.8)28 (+1.8)27 (+1.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29T (+2.6)29T (+2.6)27T (+2.1) (+0.0)
6Sebastian Janikowski22339910.010.0
8Adam Vinatieri2244101010.010.0
9Robbie Gould2244101010.010.0

Mike Badgley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs TEN2222888.08.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.3)18 (+0.3)25 (+2.4)25 (+2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)20 (+0.2)27T (+4.4)27T (+4.4)
6Seattle Seahawks318560200101017.017.0
8Indianapolis Colts2834700100221.01.0
9San Francisco 49ers3242800008815.015.0

Los Angeles Chargers (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs TEN19.0039021000445.05.0
9@ SEA17.0035641001121213.013.0
10PROJ-Dodds20.403612.51.10.700. (H=21)9.7 (H=29)
10PROJ-Tremblay19.753562.41.10.800.510.410.410.4 (H=24)10.4 (H=33)

Chargers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.0)19 (-0.1)20 (+0.5)18 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.6)7 (-2.7)12 (-1.5)11 (-2.5)
6Baker Mayfield7422462381228014.714.714.314.3
7Marcus Mariota71243223711738018.718.716.316.3
9Russell Wilson81263923521541022.922.920.520.5

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4700)

8vs IND5021282443020130.230.227.827.8
9@ SF471621171003509.
10PROJ-Dodds25372671.51.1260.119.419.419.4 (H=51)19.4 (H=72)
10PROJ-Tremblay24362581.31.1260. (H=46)18.2 (H=64)
10PROJ-Bloom182917110.8110.112.412.412.4 (H=23)12.4 (H=33)

Chargers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.7)17 (+0.1)16 (-0.4)17 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.3)28 (+3.4)25 (+2.6)25 (+2.9)
6Duke Johnson3523605473010.914.912.914.9
6Carlos Hyde321434000003.
7Dion Lewis45139106664015.521.518.521.5
7Derrick Henry24123312232012.514.513.514.5
9Mike Davis59156208745010.717.714.217.7
9Chris Carson10840000004.

Doug Martin (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4200)

8vs IND2813720221708.910.97.99.9
9@ SF2611490212006.
10PROJ-Dodds13570.421309.411.410.4 (H=19)11.4 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay15630.4214010.112.111.1 (H=22)12.1 (H=35)
10PROJ-Bloom12520.31707.78.78.2 (H=13)8.7 (H=20)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4800)

8vs IND222140885006.414.410.414.4
9@ SF22240444504.
10PROJ-Dodds2120.16430.16.712.79.7 (H=18)12.7 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay3110.16450.16.812.89.8 (H=19)12.8 (H=34)
10PROJ-Bloom2605410.15.310.37.8 (H=12)10.3 (H=23)

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

8vs IND214000000.
9@ SF10527000002.
10PROJ-Dodds4170.10002.32.32.3 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay4150.10002.12.12.1 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom52400002.42.42.4 (H=2)2.4 (H=2)

Chargers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.0)12 (-2.2)15 (-0.9)14 (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-10.1)3 (-11.9)3 (-10.3)3 (-11.5)
6Damion Ratley65868200008.
6Jarvis Landry73921100001.
7Tajae Sharpe5697101000010.117.113.620.1
7Corey Davis61731000001.
9Doug Baldwin72447700007.711.79.711.7
9Jaron Brown19211010007.

Jordy Nelson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

8vs IND45411400001.
9@ SF43321600001.
10PROJ-Dodds3440.30006.29.27.7 (H=13)9.2 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay3430.30006.19.17.6 (H=13)9.1 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom3270.20003.96.95.4 (H=7)6.9 (H=14)

Brandon LaFell (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

8vs IND46433910009.912.911.412.9
9@ SF5333200000253.55.0
10PROJ-Dodds3340.20004.67.66.1 (H=9)7.6 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=11)8.1 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom3250.20003.76.75.2 (H=7)6.7 (H=16)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3200)

8vs IND304242100010.
9@ SF3221800000.
10PROJ-Dodds3300.20004.27.25.7 (H=7)7.2 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay3330.20004.57.56.0 (H=8)7.5 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Martavis Bryant (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

8vs IND70000000000.00.0
9@ SF212229011704.
10PROJ-Dodds2280.10003.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay1130.10202.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=4)5.2 (H=9)

Dwayne Harris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

8vs IND1000011301.
9@ SF1111300001.
10PROJ-Dodds1800000.81.81.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1500200.71.71.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Chargers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.1)15 (-0.1)15 (-0.1)16 (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.6)27 (+4.2)27 (+3.5)26 (+4.1)
6David Njoku6012755111.518.515.018.5
7Luke Stocker30221117.
9Nick Vannett488652111.

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4700)

8vs IND315474113.417.415.417.4
9@ SF3422200243.04.0
10PROJ-Dodds4520.47.611.69.6 (H=18)11.6 (H=29)
10PROJ-Tremblay5540. (H=18)12.2 (H=32)
10PROJ-Bloom3340. (H=9)8.2 (H=16)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

8vs IND120000000.00.0
9@ SF1221800.
10PROJ-Dodds000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Chargers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.7)11 (-0.7)10T (-1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.0)10T (-1.0)8 (-1.5) (+0.0)
6Greg Joseph2200666.06.0
7Ryan Succop2311777.07.0
9Sebastian Janikowski1222556.06.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

8vs IND0044444.04.0
9@ SF1200333.03.0

Chargers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.1)8 (-2.1)5T (-2.0)5T (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-4.1)2T (-4.1)5 (-5.0)5 (-5.0)
6Cleveland Browns384491100033-1.0-1.0
7Tennessee Titans2034420000223.03.0
9Seattle Seahawks2537520000223.03.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $2000)

8vs IND42.004610000000-4.0-4.0
9@ SF34.004050000000-1.0-1.0
10PROJ-Dodds29.704141.80.80.500. (H=11)5.2 (H=17)
10PROJ-Tremblay29.754042.20.90.500. (H=14)5.8 (H=21)