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Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 26, Titans 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense30.0 (+6.0) (4)116 (+5) (14)271 (+20) (11)
Titans Defense17.6 (-6.4) (1)107 (-3) (16)226 (-24) (8)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense16.8 (-7.3) (29)110 (+0) (16)178 (-72) (30)
Patriots Defense22.4 (-1.6) (11)107 (-3) (14)274 (+23) (26)

Patriots Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Patriots have employed a mixed bag strategy to keep their rushing offense afloat as an above average unit despite some tough injuries throughout the season. With the loss of Rex Burkhead and injury to Sony Michel, James White continues to lead the Patriots backfield in playing time with the absence of Sony Michel as White has seen over 70 percent of the snaps in three straight games with three rushing touchdowns over his last two outings. White has been far from efficient with his touches though, averaging just 2.8 yards per attempt over his last three games. It was actually Cordarrelle Patterson who led the team in rushing for the second straight week though, finding his way to 66 yards from 11 carries with an impressive rushing touchdown. With Sony Michel on track for a return this week, look for both White and Patterson to take a back seat on the ground to Michel, who should lead this backfield handily as he was averaging 22 carries and 105 rushing yards per game in the three games leading up to his injury. With what Patterson has shown in limited snaps at running back though, he may still have a role in this backfield--at least enough to carve out a few carries per game.

The Titans run defense did a great job bottling up Ezekiel Elliott last week, holding him to just 3.6 yards per attempt with seven of his 17 rushes going for 1 or fewer yards. Tennessee continues to be tough on opposing running backs, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and just two rushing touchdowns by running backs this season, both coming from Alex Collins in Week 6. While they have allowed a few committees of running backs to put up over 100 combined rushing yards, no one running back has posted a massive stat line against the Titans this season. Jurrell Casey continues to dominate, but that is about all the Titans have on the interior as Austin Johnson and DaQuan Jones have been average at best. Wesley Woodyard is a force against the run and had a great game last week while safety Kevin Byard has also looked to be a far above average run-defending defensive back. Depth outside of these key playmakers is shoddy, which begs the question of when the dam could break against these Titans. With the Patriots rolling out a banged up and deficient offensive line along and Sony Michel in his first game back from injury, the Titans defense should have the edge this week.

Patriots Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Tom Brady and the Patriots continue to get it done through the air despite an injury-laden arsenal of weapons. With three of their top pass-catchers--Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon-- all nursing injuries, Brady has been forced to lean heavily on the likes of James White in recent weeks to help move the ball. Both Edelman and Gordon managed to suit up last week and did well, with Gordon most notably finding the end zone for the first time as a Patriot on Brady’s only deep ball of the night. Gordon now has amassed at least 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games. Edelman remains heavily involved despite his injury, as he has seen at least seven targets in every game this season with 10 targets in back-to-back games. Speaking of targets, James White has averaged just over 10 targets per game since Week 4 as he leads the NFL among running backs in all receiving categories including receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Gronkowski continues to deal with both a back and ankle injury sustained in Week 7. He returned in Week 8 but was ineffective, leading to Gronkowski sitting out last week’s contest. He will likely be a game-time decision this week, and with the Patriots headed to a bye in Week 11, Gronkowski very well may sit again in this game.

The Titans have been relatively stingy against the pass this season, giving up just the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and just the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns this season. Much of this can be attributed to their schedule though, as they have faced just one top-10 passing offense (Baltimore, 10th in passing yards per game). Safety Kevin Byard was very impressive in the Titans’ last outing against the Cowboys as he grabbed his second interception of the season, while Adoree Jackson has been improving on a weekly basis and actually done a great job in coverage downfield--especially against deep balls. Malcolm Butler has been terrible on the other side though, and despite any narrative of him looking forward to facing his former team, both Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman should be able to take full advantage of Butler in coverage. James White, on the other hand, could struggle in his typical role as the Titans have been tough on pass-catching running backs--giving up more than four receptions to a running back just twice this season with only two running backs to exceed 26 receiving yards and no receiving touchdowns allowed to the position.

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Titans may not have been efficient on the ground last week, but they got the job done as a team, amassing 125 total rushing yards in a tough matchup with the Cowboys. Dion Lewis saw the majority of snaps and carries in this game, out-touching Derrick Henry 19-to-6 on the ground. Lewis has not been efficient with his touches this season though. Outside of Week 7 in which he averaged 7.0 yards per carry, Lewis had not cracked 3.5 yards per attempt since Week 1. He often finds himself in trouble trying to make something out of nothing in the backfield, scampering around trying to slip through a crease before being tackled for big losses that hurt his overall productivity. Derrick Henry remains the bruiser here, and he has been used as just that in back to back games, seeing limited but meaningful carries with a goal-line touchdown in each of his last two games. Marcus Mariota continues to shine on the ground as well, rushing for over 30 yards in his second straight game as he has now surpassed that mark four times this season with two rushing touchdowns on his resume.

The Patriots rushing defense saw itself exposed by the Packers last week as they gave up over 100 rushing yards to running backs for the first time since Week 3. This defense had performed well over their five games leading into Week 9, allowing an average of just 63 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs over that span. Both Lawrence Guy and Trey Flowers continue to play at a high level while their defensive backs have been proficient tacklers for most of this season. This matchup in the trenches should be fairly even with the strength of the Titans offensive line coming from the left to square off against both Guy and Flowers. However, if right tackle Jack Conklin can’t make it out of the concussion protocol in time to suit up, the Titans will certainly have a much tougher time finding room to run here.

Titans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Titans passing offense took a slight step forward last week as Marcus Mariota threw multiple passing touchdowns for just the second time this season and kept a clean sheet through the air with no interceptions for just the third time. Mariota continues to rely on short routes as he has been very reluctant to push the ball downfield this season. Dion Lewis led the team in receiving yards last week as he has been a focal point of this offense for two straight weeks. Corey Davis was used as a WR1 again, seeing 34.5 percent of the team’s targets in their last game. Davis has been targeted more than seven times in just three of eight games due mostly to the dreadfully low volume of this passing offense. It has been tough to pin down a consistent complimentary receiver to Davis in this offense, as the likes of Tajae Sharpe, Taywan Taylor, and Darius Jennings, and even Cameron Batson have all seen up and down usage in recent weeks. Taylor did suffer a foot injury in last week’s game which may require monitoring, but none of these secondary Titans receiving options are fantasy-relevant regardless.

The Patriots continue to struggle against the pass in recent weeks as this secondary has been porous outside of Stephon Gilmore. Since Week 5, the Patriots have given up an average of 324 passing yards per game and 11 passing touchdowns, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over that span--which includes a game against the Bills. They are getting little help from their defensive front, allowing quarterbacks far too much time with only 13 sacks on the season--third-fewest in the league. Where this group has really struggled is defending against pass-catching running backs, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game (61) to running backs this season with a running back amassing at least 69 receiving yards against New England in three of their last four games. Dion Lewis is one of the more talented pass-catchers coming out of the backfield, and he will be squaring off against his former team here--so keep an eye on him for some upside through the air to combine with his recent heavy usage on the ground. Corey Davis will be shadowed by Gilmore, who has been the rock of this secondary and should give Davis a tough time in this game. The rest of this Titans receiving group, while tough to trust and nearly impossible to predict, should have decent matchups. Tajae Sharpe, if healthy, is the top candidate for volume outside of Davis.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.7)5 (-2.7)6 (-2.6)7 (-2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.1)13 (-1.1)11 (-1.5)12 (-1.2)
6Joe Flacco7525372381134015.315.312.912.9
7Philip Rivers441926306201-1023.
9Dak Prescott59213124321211020.320.315.816.8

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $6000)

7@ CHI6425362773116025.525.522.722.7
8@ BUF74294532400180171713.816.8
9vs GB712235294105-1018.618.615.715.7
10PROJ-Dodds25372861.90.7140. (H=51)22.2 (H=71)
10PROJ-Tremblay26402931.81.1250.121.821.821.8 (H=50)21.8 (H=69)
10PROJ-Bloom20292502.10.7110.120.920.920.9 (H=46)20.9 (H=64)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.7)4 (-6.8)4 (-6.1)4 (-7.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.9)3 (-5.4)3 (-4.9)3 (-5.9)
6Alex Collins3419542000017.417.417.417.4
6Gus Edwards141042000004.
7Austin Ekeler4212420752606.811.89.311.8
7Justin Jackson5230111101.
9Ezekiel Elliott52176105451011.
9Rod Smith700021800.

James White (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $7300)

7@ CHI451140010857221.729.725.729.7
8@ BUF618151131079015.425.420.425.4
9vs GB56123127672022.328.325.328.3
10PROJ-Dodds8310.47550.413.420.416.9 (H=34)20.4 (H=50)
10PROJ-Tremblay10400.38660.515.423.419.4 (H=43)23.4 (H=64)
10PROJ-Bloom6240.45420.612.617.615.1 (H=28)17.6 (H=39)

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5300)

7@ CHI64220111303.
10PROJ-Dodds13520.31607.68.68.1 (H=10)8.6 (H=15)
10PROJ-Tremblay7310.20304.64.64.6 (H=3)4.6 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom18850.600012.112.112.1 (H=20)12.1 (H=28)

Kenjon Barner (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

7@ CHI171036000003.
8@ BUF724000000.
9vs GB314000000.
10PROJ-Dodds2110.10001.71.71.7 (H=1)1.7 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay4180.10002.42.42.4 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

James Develin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ CHI150001000000.00.0
8@ BUF2700021700.
9vs GB170002100010.51.0
10PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay00021101.13.12.1 (H=1)3.1 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.8)22 (+2.1)25 (+2.4)25 (+3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+7.2)28 (+9.0)28 (+8.1)27 (+8.7)
6Michael Crabtree409693100015.321.318.321.3
6Willie Snead541076000006.013.09.513.0
7Tyrell Williams3644118100017.821.819.824.8
7Mike Williams303155113011.812.812.312.8
9Amari Cooper508558100011.816.814.316.8
9Allen Hurns18112310008.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6800)

7@ CHI63853610009.614.612.114.6
8@ BUF731091040213011.720.716.223.7
9vs GB64106710228011.817.814.417.4
10PROJ-Dodds6630.41609.315.312.4 (H=21)15.4 (H=33)
10PROJ-Tremblay5600.41408.813.811.4 (H=18)13.9 (H=28)
10PROJ-Bloom5610.51809.914.912.5 (H=21)15.0 (H=32)

Josh Gordon (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $6000)

7@ CHI61741000000101412.017.0
8@ BUF64644200004.
9vs GB571051301000192421.527.0
10PROJ-Dodds4660.400091311.0 (H=18)13.0 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay4650.30008.312.310.3 (H=16)12.3 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom4710.500010.114.112.1 (H=22)14.1 (H=32)

Chris Hogan (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3900)

7@ CHI42766300006.312.39.312.3
8@ BUF45224900004.
9vs GB531000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds2350.20004.76.75.7 (H=7)6.7 (H=13)
10PROJ-Tremblay2280.2000465.0 (H=5)6.0 (H=11)
10PROJ-Bloom2250.10003.15.14.1 (H=3)5.1 (H=8)

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4000)

7@ CHI600001400.
8@ BUF130000103803.
9vs GB1311701161112.813.813.313.8
10PROJ-Dodds1902120. (H=3)3.8 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay04031702.12.12.2 (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

7@ CHI811800000.
8@ BUF50000000000.00.0
9vs GB1233300000364.56.0
10PROJ-Dodds1900000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay1700000.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.4)1 (-5.3)1 (-4.8)1 (-5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.2)1 (-7.9)1 (-7.0)1 (-8.0)
6Mark Andrews20422002.
7Antonio Gates13321101.
9Blake Jarwin27221501.

Rob Gronkowski (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5600)

8@ BUF68834304.
10PROJ-Dodds4540. (H=13)11.2 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay4460.36.410.48.4 (H=11)10.4 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom4510.47.511.59.5 (H=14)11.5 (H=24)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-0.8)2T (-0.8)2T (-1.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-2.7)2T (-2.7)2T (-3.5) (+0.0)
6Justin Tucker0033333.03.0
7Mike Badgley2222888.08.0
9Brett Maher0122222.02.0

Stephen Gostkowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ CHI1155888.08.0
8@ BUF4511131314.014.0
9vs GB1144777.07.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (-0.1)23T (-0.1)27T (+2.1)27T (+2.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.2)23 (+1.2)27T (+4.4)27T (+4.4)
6Baltimore Ravens0106110000111121.021.0
7Los Angeles Chargers1939021000445.05.0
9Dallas Cowboys2834040200887.07.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2700)

7@ CHI31.0045322002181819.019.0
8@ BUF6.0033331101131320.020.0
9vs GB17.0036810100334.04.0
10PROJ-Dodds20.803252.20.90.800.610.210.210.2 (H=26)10.2 (H=41)
10PROJ-Tremblay20.0031920.90.800.610.210.210.2 (H=26)10.2 (H=41)

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.4)26 (+2.4)26 (+1.8)26 (+2.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.0)29 (+5.0)29 (+4.2)29 (+5.0)
6Patrick Mahomes5423363524229032.532.529.032.0
7Mitchell Trubisky82265033322681136.836.833.436.4
8Derek Anderson622239290011-1013.413.48.59.5
9Aaron Rodgers7424432592048021.821.819.219.2

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $4700)

7@ LAC71243223711738018.718.716.316.3
9@ DAL702129240201032129.229.222.824.8
10PROJ-Dodds20332221.315280.219.319.319.3 (H=50)19.3 (H=71)
10PROJ-Tremblay19312061.20.95250.217.917.917.9 (H=44)17.9 (H=62)
10PROJ-Bloom19301931.117390.419.419.419.4 (H=50)19.4 (H=72)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.9)16 (+0.1)15 (-0.7)23T (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.3)24 (+2.3)22 (+1.0)23 (+2.3)
6Kareem Hunt311080065105124.529.527.032.5
6Spencer Ware1625032901.
7Tarik Cohen42614012869114.322.318.322.3
7Jordan Howard4612391119010.811.811.311.8
8LeSean McCoy4612130868209.515.512.515.5
8Chris Ivory196340211104.
9Aaron Jones4314760421008.610.67.69.6
9Jamaal Williams317340222005.

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4600)

7@ LAC45139106664015.521.518.521.5
9@ DAL59196204460118.
10PROJ-Dodds10430.24350.19.613.611.6 (H=24)13.6 (H=39)
10PROJ-Tremblay12500.34270. (H=25)14.1 (H=42)
10PROJ-Bloom11430.34350.210.814.812.8 (H=28)14.8 (H=46)

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3800)

7@ LAC24123312232012.514.513.514.5
9@ DAL14627122509.
10PROJ-Dodds11410.311006.97.97.4 (H=11)7.9 (H=18)
10PROJ-Tremblay9360.211005.86.86.3 (H=8)6.8 (H=14)
10PROJ-Bloom9300.52130. (H=16)9.9 (H=27)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.4)14 (-1.2)13 (-1.6)13 (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.4)11 (-2.7)11 (-2.1)13 (-2.5)
6Tyreek Hill53127142310032.239.235.742.2
6Chris Conley38111900001.
7Kevin White20226400006.
7Anthony Miller52723500003.
8Zay Jones60865500005.511.58.511.5
8Kelvin Benjamin49724500004.
9Marquez Valdes-Scantling6063101000010.113.111.616.1
9Davante Adams719640100010.

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4500)

7@ LAC6173100000142.54.0
9@ DAL651065601406129.012.0
10PROJ-Dodds5640.40008.813.811.3 (H=22)13.8 (H=41)
10PROJ-Tremblay5670.40109.214.211.7 (H=24)14.2 (H=44)
10PROJ-Bloom5550.30007.312.39.8 (H=17)12.3 (H=34)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3600)

7@ LAC5697101000010.117.113.620.1
9@ DAL551100000010.51.0
10PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=9)7.8 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay2280.20104.16.15.1 (H=6)6.1 (H=12)
10PROJ-Bloom3320.20004.47.45.9 (H=8)7.4 (H=17)

Taywan Taylor (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

7@ LAC4921800000.
9@ DAL18222400002.
10PROJ-Dodds3340.20004.67.66.1 (H=9)7.6 (H=19)
10PROJ-Tremblay3310.20004.37.35.8 (H=9)7.3 (H=18)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Darius Jennings (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ LAC30000000000.00.0
9@ DAL6113600003.
10PROJ-Dodds1100.10001.62.62.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay0500000.50.50.6 (H=0)0.6 (H=0)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.5)28 (+3.0)27 (+2.8)28 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.5)26 (+3.8)26 (+3.2)28 (+4.5)
6Travis Kelce51956106.111.18.611.1
7Trey Burton70119126118.627.623.130.6
8Charles Clay41633603.
9Jimmy Graham596455111.515.513.515.5

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ LAC56321101.
9@ DAL53223319.311.310.311.3
10PROJ-Dodds2170. (H=5)4.9 (H=12)
10PROJ-Tremblay2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)
10PROJ-Bloom3380.2586.5 (H=12)8.0 (H=29)

Luke Stocker (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ LAC30221117.
9@ DAL3421500.
10PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.6)24 (+0.6)27T (+0.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.5)24 (+1.5)27 (+2.1) (+0.0)
6Harrison Butker4444161618.018.0
7Cody Parkey1144778.08.0
8Steve Hauschka2200669.09.0
9Mason Crosby1122555.05.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ LAC2311777.07.0
9@ DAL0144444.04.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.3)5T (-2.3)5 (-3.7)5 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.7)8 (-2.7)7 (-4.9)7 (-4.9)
6Kansas City Chiefs4350020100440.00.0
7Chicago Bears3838111200773.03.0
8Buffalo Bills2538720000223.03.0
9Green Bay Packers3143320000221.01.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $2100)

7@ LAC20.0034420000223.03.0
9@ DAL14.00297511009910.010.0
10PROJ-Dodds26.003972.30.90.600. (H=18)6.9 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay26.504072.61.10.600. (H=22)7.6 (H=31)