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Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 19, Packers 29

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense20.8 (-3.3) (24)103 (-7) (21)213 (-38) (26)
Packers Defense25.5 (+1.5) (21)120 (+8) (22)233 (-18) (10)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense24.0 (-0.0) (15)106 (-4) (19)301 (+50) (6)
Dolphins Defense25.0 (+1.0) (19)136 (+25) (28)258 (+7) (22)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Dolphins seem committed to 35-year-old Frank Gore as their offensive engine, and the results have been predictably mixed. Gore has scattered good performances with bad ones, averaging 5.79 yards per carry over his 4 best games but 2.86 over the other five. All in all, he’s looked surprisingly fresh for his age, routinely forcing missed tackles and grinding out tough yardage. But the Dolphins’ porous front line (currently ranked 28th by our Matt Bitonti) isn’t opening many creases, so Gore’s week-to-week upside is always tightly capped. It’s a wonder the Dolphins don’t want more contribution from Kenyan Drake, who’s averaging 4.78 yards per run but just 8.1 attempts a game. Drake isn’t a complete back, but he always offers explosiveness on the edges, and he did rack up 46 ground yards or more in 4 straight games prior to last Sunday.

The Packers’ porous run defense dodged a bullet when top linebacker Blake Martinez returned to last Monday night’s game. Martinez had rolled his ankle and been carted off the field but came back to help stabilize a unit that simply can’t afford to lose him. The Packers have been gashed by the run of late, allowing big and efficient fantasy days left and right over their last 6 games. The loss of Muhammad Wilkerson in Week 3 has had a noticeable impact. There’s no shame in allowing a big week to Todd Gurley, but altogether 6 different runners have topped 60 yards over that span, averaging 86 at 5.52 per carry. The line, led by underrated nose Mike Daniels, is generally stout, but there are real holes along the edges. Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are pass rushers at heart and often struggle to hold contain. The silver lining here is that the trade of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix opens up a full-time role for second-year man Josh Jones. Jones is a limited player but has been fantastic as a hybrid in run support, serving as an extra linebacker on the second level.

Dolphins Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Somehow, Brock Osweiler offers even less upside than Ryan Tannehill did. Tannehill doesn’t look close to a return, so Osweiler will draw at least one more (likely low-impact) start for Adam Gase’s offense. Since a career Week 6 performance, Osweiler has been as vanilla as they come, averaging just 206 yards over his last 3 games (with just 2 touchdowns). Long a liability when tasked with too much, he’s rarely asked to throw downfield or into traffic, which mitigates the potential impacts of Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker (they managed just 27 combined yards last week). Both are suited best for big-time throws, so both are miscast in this offense. As it stands, the passing game is centered around short, sanitized throws to slot men Danny Amendola and Jakeem Grant, with a healthy diet of check-downs to running backs. Even if pressed into a shootout, there’s no reason to expect much dynamism at all from this unit. Osweiler simply isn’t efficient enough to trust in any fantasy format, and he can’t be trusted to keep pace in a back-and-forth pass-fest.

The Green Bay secondary remains a crowded mystery, even after last week’s trade of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. His replacement Kentrell Brice doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence after the team cut Jermaine Whitehead after being ejected last week. At least things look rosier at the cornerback spots, where Jaire Alexander looks like a shutdown-level keeper and Josh Jackson has flashed promise in the slot. All told, though, this remains a shaky group. Beyond Alexander and Jackson, there are several beatable pieces in place, and outside receivers find far too many holes in the downfield zones. Through 8 games, 12 different players have notched 70 yards or more in this matchup, including a handful of running backs and tight ends.

Packers Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

The Packers have pared down their crowded backfield, sending Ty Montgomery out of town and trotting out a sensible one-two punch of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. The move made sense: Jones has been electric all year in a part-time role (6.03 yards per rush), while Williams provides plenty of dependability in Montgomery’s passing-down role. Going forward, Jones should lead if not dominate the ground game for as long as he’s able to hold onto the ball. He’s racked up 162 yards on just 26 attempts over the last 2 weeks, running circles around the plodding Williams. Whenever the Packers are able to feature him, he projects as a high-efficiency, high-impact runner with weekly 100-yard potential.

The Dolphins’ much-maligned run defense got a nice breather last Sunday against the Jets’ low-impact run game. They rose to the task, but they’ve been simply awful for most of the season, giving up the league’s fifth-most ground yards per game. Four of the last 6 lead backs they’ve faced have racked up 93 or more, averaging 5.90 per rush in the process. The front line has actually impressed, routinely eating up space inside, but big problems have cropped up behind it. The linebackers are struggling to track and tackle, while run-support safeties Reshad Jones and T.J. McDonald have been inconsistent. That’s allowed runners to break off chunk gains left and right, and it’s hard to project an end to that. If given any room, the quick, dynamic Aaron Jones has a fine matchup on the second level.

Packers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Aaron Rodgers continues to post strong, easy QB1 numbers. He’s averaging 318 yards a game, and last weeks 259 stands as his season-low. He's posting the lowest completion percentage of his career (60.6%), but his highest yardage rates since 2014. Injecting big-play rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown into the offense has dinged Rodgers’ efficiency – they’re nowhere near as dependable as Jordy Nelson was – but opened new avenues for big downfield plays. Valdes-Scantling has entered the lineup for Geronimo Allison and averaged a wild 31.1 yards on 8 receptions over the last 3 weeks. He’s dependent on big plays and not very projectable week-to-week but keeps winning tough routes and making contested catches. Davante Adams remains the star here, though, averaging 7.3 catches and 91 yards a game. Last week was his first time being held below 52, and he’s still a red zone dynamo, which has helped him to a robust 12.1% touchdown rate.

Perhaps all the Dolphins defense needed to prove its salt was a date with Sam Darnold. Miami simply swarmed the overwhelmed 21-year-old last Sunday, allowing just 5.87 yards per attempt while notching 4 interceptions and 4 sacks. All season long, this has been an aggressive unit willing to sell itself out for big plays as they currently sit second in the league with 15 interceptions. Unfortunately, when they’re not picking off the ball, they’re usually allowing completions. Non-Darnold passers are hitting on an amazing 78% of their throws at 8.65 yards per attempt, with 15 touchdowns over 7 games. The coverage unit is spotty at best, with top cornerback Xavien Howard just as likely to get beaten downfield as make a play on the ball, and the safeties struggling to provide help. Downfield tackling has also been a problem, stretching intermediate throws into splash plays. Game flow tends to keep quarterbacks from huge days in this matchup, but it’s fair to expect big-time efficiency.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.0)16 (-1.1)18 (-0.6)16 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.1)19 (+1.1)22 (+1.8)20 (+0.8)
6C.J. Beathard57162324521321021.421.418.918.9
8Jared Goff7819352953057027.527.526.526.5
9Tom Brady712235294105-1018.618.615.715.7

Brock Osweiler (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4600)

7vs DET5622312392012020.220.217.817.8
8@ HOU6621372410100011.
9vs NYJ571524139003407.
10PROJ-Dodds21342381.31270.117.417.417.4 (H=42)17.4 (H=61)
10PROJ-Tremblay21342401.313120.1181818.0 (H=45)18.0 (H=64)
10PROJ-Bloom20331801.11.312012.312.312.3 (H=23)12.3 (H=33)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.4)14 (-0.6)17 (+0.1)16 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.8)29 (+4.9)29 (+5.1)29 (+5.8)
6Matt Breida2714611000012.
6Raheem Mostert231287000008.
8Todd Gurley702511407681125.531.530.536.5
8Malcolm Brown917000000.
9James White56123127672022.328.325.328.3
9Kenjon Barner314000000.

Kenyan Drake (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5100)

7vs DET3667218415014.718.716.718.7
8@ HOU37125812237121.523.522.523.5
9vs NYJ28390642603.
10PROJ-Dodds8390.24320.18.912.910.9 (H=19)12.9 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay6280.24320.17.811.89.8 (H=16)11.8 (H=28)
10PROJ-Bloom8310.34250.28.612.610.6 (H=18)12.6 (H=31)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs DET251029011403.
8@ HOU291253021505.
9vs NYJ292053011605.
10PROJ-Dodds13530.31807.98.98.4 (H=15)8.9 (H=25)
10PROJ-Tremblay12500.2180787.5 (H=12)8.0 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom13510.21506.87.87.3 (H=12)7.8 (H=20)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.2)23 (+2.6)27 (+3.6)24 (+3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+12.7)30 (+11.9)30 (+12.2)29 (+12.5)
6Marquise Goodwin5454126215025.
6Pierre Garcon45643700003.
8Josh Reynolds69534221-2016.019.017.519.0
8Brandin Cooks75837402908.311.39.811.3
9Josh Gordon57105130100019.024.021.527.0
9Cordarrelle Patterson1311701161112.813.813.313.8

Danny Amendola (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

7vs DET557684100014.420.417.420.4
8@ HOU65654300009.714.711.914.4
9vs NYJ47754700004.
10PROJ-Dodds5500.20006.211.28.8 (H=16)11.3 (H=29)
10PROJ-Tremblay4450.20005.79.77.8 (H=13)9.8 (H=23)
10PROJ-Bloom5450.30006.311.38.9 (H=16)11.4 (H=30)

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

8@ HOU6696134000013.419.416.422.4
9vs NYJ5121800000.
10PROJ-Dodds3470.20005.98.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay3380.2000586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom3400.20005.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=18)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4100)

7vs DET4931510006.
9vs NYJ28111900001.
10PROJ-Dodds3390.30005.78.77.2 (H=11)8.7 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay3450.30006.39.37.8 (H=13)9.3 (H=23)
10PROJ-Bloom2350.20004.76.75.7 (H=7)6.7 (H=13)

Jakeem Grant (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs DET39223200003.
8@ HOU63843600003.
9vs NYJ29211600001.
10PROJ-Dodds3310.20004.37.35.9 (H=9)7.4 (H=18)
10PROJ-Tremblay3380.2000586.6 (H=11)8.1 (H=21)
10PROJ-Bloom2210.10002.74.73.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.9)5 (-3.7)4 (-3.3)5 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.3)2 (-7.4)3 (-6.3)2 (-7.5)
6George Kittle53643003.
8Gerald Everett17212202.
9Dwayne Allen66112102.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2600)

7vs DET16334404.
8@ HOU16541401.
9vs NYJ271000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds2180. (H=3)4.4 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay2200. (H=4)4.6 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom3190. (H=5)5.5 (H=14)

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

7vs DET39322302.
8@ HOU490000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.4)15 (-0.4)27T (-0.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.6)25 (+1.6)27T (+2.1) (+0.0)
6Robbie Gould3333121215.015.0
8Greg Zuerlein2211778.08.0
9Stephen Gostkowski1144777.07.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs DET0133333.03.0
8@ HOU3322111113.013.0
9vs NYJ2211778.08.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.0)17 (+0.0)17 (-0.2)17 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.1)11 (-2.1)13 (-2.3)13 (-2.3)
6San Francisco 49ers3352130000332.02.0
8Los Angeles Rams2735930110777.07.0
9New England Patriots1736810100334.04.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2100)

7vs DET32.0045710000110.00.0
8@ HOU42.004270000000-4.0-4.0
9vs NYJ6.0028244001181825.025.0
10PROJ-Dodds28.203952.30.80.500. (H=14)6.1 (H=21)
10PROJ-Tremblay28.503862.40.90.500. (H=15)6.4 (H=23)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.9)9 (-2.0)10 (-1.7)9 (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.6)23 (+1.6)23 (+1.9)23 (+1.7)
6Mitchell Trubisky70223131631847031.531.528.331.3
7Matthew Stafford6418222172049019.819.817.617.6
8Deshaun Watson60162023950114033.433.431.031.0
9Sam Darnold662139229040007.

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $6400)

8@ LAR5218302861015018.818.815.915.9
9@ NE7424432592048021.821.819.219.2
10PROJ-Dodds24372862.10.74190.124.524.524.5 (H=59)24.5 (H=79)
10PROJ-Tremblay233727220.93160.122.922.922.9 (H=52)22.9 (H=70)
10PROJ-Bloom23302672.40.53100. (H=57)24.1 (H=77)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.0)28 (+5.3)26 (+4.9)27 (+5.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.1)25 (+2.9)26 (+2.7)26 (+3.4)
6Tarik Cohen3453119790018.125.119.624.1
6Jordan Howard361469010006.
7Kerryon Johnson381915803221017.919.918.922.9
7LeGarrette Blount2110501000011.
8Lamar Miller34181331200019.319.319.322.3
8Alfred Blue291542000004.
9Elijah McGuire367300533706.
9Isaiah Crowell2313490211106.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5000)

8@ LAR3212861220014.616.615.616.6
9@ NE4314760421008.610.67.69.6
10PROJ-Dodds14700.52150. (H=26)14.1 (H=39)
10PROJ-Tremblay13610.52160.111.313.312.3 (H=23)13.3 (H=35)
10PROJ-Bloom16820.6210012.814.813.8 (H=29)14.8 (H=42)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $3500)

8@ LAR1349110006.
9@ NE317340222005.
10PROJ-Dodds8290.32150. (H=11)8.8 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay9370.32170. (H=14)9.8 (H=29)
10PROJ-Bloom7300.12140. (H=8)7.6 (H=19)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.7)8 (-3.7)11 (-2.3)10 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.6)15 (-1.3)17 (-0.4)15 (-1.1)
6Allen Robinson596564100012.417.414.917.4
6Taylor Gabriel4655110019011.916.914.419.9
7Golden Tate466436013006.610.68.610.6
7Kenny Golladay49223700003.
8DeAndre Hopkins597682200020.
8Will Fuller4465124100018.423.420.926.4
9Quincy Enunwa48434000004.
9Robby Anderson47643201103.

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $7800)

8@ LAR4075133000013.318.315.821.3
9@ NE7196401000101613.016.0
10PROJ-Dodds6800.800012.818.815.8 (H=27)18.8 (H=41)
10PROJ-Tremblay5670.600010.315.312.8 (H=19)15.3 (H=28)
10PROJ-Bloom6770.900013.119.116.1 (H=28)19.1 (H=42)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $5000)

8@ LAR315245100010.512.511.512.5
9@ NE6063101000010.113.111.616.1
10PROJ-Dodds4590.30007.711.79.7 (H=18)11.7 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay3500.30006.89.88.3 (H=14)9.8 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom4650.50009.513.511.5 (H=25)13.5 (H=36)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4900)

8@ LAR2454400000486.08.0
9@ NE56652400002.
10PROJ-Dodds4460.30006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay3410.30005.98.97.4 (H=10)8.9 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom4330.30005.19.17.1 (H=9)9.1 (H=18)

Equanimeous St. Brown (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

8@ LAR9223100003.
9@ NE7141400000.
10PROJ-Dodds1220.20003.44.43.9 (H=4)4.4 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay2230.20003.55.54.5 (H=6)5.5 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.6)20 (+0.5)21 (+0.6)17 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.1)28 (+4.5)29 (+4.3)27 (+4.4)
6Trey Burton51442318.312.310.312.3
7Michael Roberts193348216.819.818.319.8
8Jordan Thomas544429214.918.916.918.9
9Chris Herndon42446206.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4600)

8@ LAR46412102.
9@ NE596455111.515.513.515.5
10PROJ-Dodds4500.47.411.49.4 (H=15)11.4 (H=29)
10PROJ-Tremblay4470. (H=14)11.1 (H=28)
10PROJ-Bloom4560.58.612.610.6 (H=18)12.6 (H=35)

Lance Kendricks (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

8@ LAR170000000.00.0
9@ NE261000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay180. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.5)18T (+0.5)26 (+1.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.5)18 (+0.5)19 (+0.9) (+0.0)
6Cody Parkey0144444.04.0
7Matt Prater4422141416.016.0
8Kaimi Fairbairn0066666.06.0
9Jason Myers2300669.09.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

8@ LAR22339912.012.0
9@ NE1122555.05.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (+1.3)12T (+1.3)20 (+1.3)20 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.9)12 (-1.9)14 (-1.4)14 (-1.4)
6Chicago Bears3154102100665.05.0
7Detroit Lions2132240000444.04.0
8Houston Texans2337021000444.04.0
9New York Jets1316840000448.08.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $3100)

8@ LAR29.0041650000555.05.0
9@ NE31.0043320000221.01.0
10PROJ-Dodds19.703312.410.700.5101010.0 (H=27)10.0 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay19.003322.210.800.610.910.910.9 (H=32)10.9 (H=40)