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Matchup Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jaguars 22, Colts 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT
JAX251120.923362541.51.0
IND281160.923362481.81.0

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense16.8 (-7.3) (30)95 (-15) (24)258 (+6) (16)
Colts Defense26.6 (+2.6) (25)110 (+0) (19)262 (+10) (23)

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense28.9 (+4.8) (6)118 (+6) (12)264 (+13) (13)
Jaguars Defense21.2 (-2.8) (8)123 (+12) (24)190 (-60) (1)

Jaguars Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Jaguars are in a tough spot in this game coming off of four straight losses and sit now at 3-5 on the year. While it appears Leonard Fournette is still not 100% healthy, the Jaguars are likely going to have to play him this week as he has been practicing in a limited capacity. The issue continues to be on the offensive line for the Jaguars as they really have not been able to find a replacement for left tackle Cam Robinson after he was injured at the start of the season. This is a unit that has lacked any consistency on the ground game as Blake Bortles has been their leading rusher the last two games and they have not had a player go over 58 rushing yards all season. Do not expect Fournette to come in immediately and get the full set of carries in this game as even when he has played earlier this year he averaged 10 carries per game.

The Colts rushing defense is one that has struggled this year compared to their competition. Since Week 3, the Colts have allowed 107 yards rushing to opposing running backs per game which is the 9th most in the NFL which on the surface does not seem that bad, however when you look at their opponents it tells a different story. The Colts did not face a top-10 rushing offense during this stretch. The issues for the Colts are that they play a lot of Nickel defense, and their defensive line is not good enough to keep the offensive lineman from getting to the second level which forces a lot of pressure onto the linebackers to shed blocks or the safeties to come up and make a play. This could be an area that the Jaguars exploit in this game.

Jaguars Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Blake Bortles coming off the bye is dealing with a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder which while it appears he will be fine and is throwing normally is definitely something to watch. Bortles has been erratic this season, but when he has been good he has looked great. This is still a quarterback who has thrown for 375 yards or more in three games this season, but the problem is consistency and while it is not all Bortlesí fault as the receivers have also struggled this season. Keelan Cole has largely been relegated to the bench as the Jaguars try to get rookie speedster D.J. Chark more involved this season.

The Colts passing defense is a unit that needs to be watched as on a true statistical standpoint, they have been playing better than they were earlier in the season, but a large part of this is based on who they have played. Over the last three weeks, the Colts have had it relatively easy going up against Sam Darnold, Derek Anderson, and Derek Carr. Prior to these three games, the Colts were exposed by Tom Brady and DeShaun Watson who each threw for 340 yards or more against this Colt secondary. The Colts secondary is still one that is built on a bunch of replacement guys who have bounced around the league in Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore, so in terms of raw talent they are one of the weaker units in the league.

Colts Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Colts rushing offense is one in which has been a surprise so far this season as the offensive line has been a bright spot on this team. This was a rushing unit that was largely expected to be one of the worst in the league but is right in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards per game as Marlon Mack has been a big reason for this rushing for an average of 129 yards over his last two games. The one thing to keep an eye on for Mack this week, however, is that prior to the bye week, he did leave the last game with an ankle injury and while he is practicing, he is a limited participant with the same ankle injury. All signs point for him to be able to go, but keep an eye on it in case any bad news comes out between now and game day.

The Jaguars rushing defense is one that has performed extremely well against teams in which do not have a solid rushing offense but have struggled against good running teams. The Jaguars on the year have faced Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Lamar Miller, and Saquon Barkley and averaged allowing 100 yards to those running backs, but in their other four games have largely held opposing running backs in check. The issue for the Jaguars has been that if you can get past this elite defensive line which is still as good as they come in the NFL, you can have success as Telvin Smith has really struggled this season and the safeties are better pass defenders than run stoppers.

Colts Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Over the last two weeks, the Colts have shifted offensive philosophies. After averaging throwing the ball 48 times from games 1-6, the Colts threw the ball just 27 times per game over the last two. This has been partially game script dependent as the Colts were up on the Bills very early, but it also speaks to the success that the running attack has had over the last two weeks. This is a unit that has also been more efficient throwing the ball less as Luck completed 72% of his passes over his last two games and still threw for seven touchdowns in those games as well. While it may limit his overall upside that the Colts are not throwing the ball upwards of 62 times per game, it definitely helps their overall winning chances in having a solid running game.

The Jaguars passing defense could once again be without A.J. Bouye this week which would force Quenton Meeks who is an undrafted rookie into significant playing time once again. Meeks performed fine last week against the Eagles and did not look out of place last week. Even without Bouye, this is going to continue to be one of the best secondaries in the league that has averaged allowing just 207 yards per game on the season which is the lowest in the NFL. This pass rush should be able to get to Luck and limit the amount of time that he will have to throw which could cause issues for the Colts this week. This remains the leagues best secondary by a wide margin.

Colts vs QB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.6)22 (+0.5)19 (+0.2)20 (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.1)11 (-2.2)9 (-2.3)8 (-2.9)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Sam Darnold7124302802168021.821.819.019.0
7Derek Anderson562031175030005.85.82.03.0
8Derek Carr5021282443020130.230.227.827.8

Blake Bortles (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $4900)

oSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU30612610063006.16.11.43.4
8vs PHI64244128610843022.622.619.719.7
10PROJ-Dodds23362541.514250.221.421.421.4 (H=59)21.4 (H=82)
10PROJ-Tremblay24392741.51.26310.222.822.822.8 (H=66)22.8 (H=91)
10PROJ-Bloom182716610.86320.115.315.315.3 (H=33)15.3 (H=46)

Colts vs RB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.8)20 (+1.2)19 (+0.1)19 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.3)9 (-2.5)4 (-3.9)7 (-3.4)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Bilal Powell321659010005.95.95.95.9
6Isaiah Crowell2913400221205.27.26.27.2
7Chris Ivory36168106325010.613.612.113.6
7Marcus Murphy184530651707.012.09.512.0
8Doug Martin2813720221708.910.97.99.9
8Jalen Richard222140885006.414.410.414.4

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6300)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
10PROJ-Dodds14570.53200.111.314.312.8 (H=23)14.3 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay14560.43200.110.613.612.1 (H=21)13.6 (H=29)
10PROJ-Bloom17700.63180.1131614.5 (H=29)16.0 (H=38)

T.J. Yeldon (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5600)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU56122807540112.817.815.317.8
8vs PHI372709783091612.516.0
10PROJ-Dodds2804300.2597.0 (H=10)9.0 (H=16)
10PROJ-Tremblay2604310.24.98.96.9 (H=9)8.9 (H=15)
10PROJ-Bloom31004310.35.99.97.9 (H=12)9.9 (H=18)

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4400)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
8vs PHI28611020001.11.11.11.1
10PROJ-Dodds5220.21804.25.24.7 (H=5)5.2 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay5180.1160343.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom5160.10002.22.22.2 (H=1)2.2 (H=1)

Colts vs WR

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.0)11 (-2.3)10 (-2.7)9 (-3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.7)7 (-5.5)7 (-5.2)6 (-7.1)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Terrelle Pryor446557100011.716.714.216.7
6Jermaine Kearse591099400009.418.413.918.4
7Kelvin Benjamin44547100007.111.19.111.1
7Zay Jones51532700002.75.74.25.7
8Seth Roberts304242100010.212.211.212.2
8Brandon LaFell46433910009.912.911.412.9

Donte Moncrief (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4700)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU551077600007.614.611.114.6
8vs PHI56745400005.49.47.49.4
10PROJ-Dodds4500.30006.810.88.8 (H=15)10.8 (H=26)
10PROJ-Tremblay4490.30006.710.78.7 (H=15)10.7 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom3350.20004.77.76.2 (H=8)7.7 (H=14)

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4700)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU50441700001.75.73.75.7
8vs PHI5862311190101211.012.0
10PROJ-Dodds4490.30006.710.78.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=26)
10PROJ-Tremblay3410.20305.68.67.2 (H=11)8.7 (H=18)
10PROJ-Bloom3310.20004.37.35.9 (H=8)7.4 (H=13)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4500)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU52722100002.14.13.14.1
8vs PHI15321800001.83.80.82.8
10PROJ-Dodds3430.20005.58.57.0 (H=12)8.5 (H=18)
10PROJ-Tremblay3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=16)
10PROJ-Bloom3290.10003.56.55.0 (H=6)6.5 (H=11)

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3600)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU30743100003.17.15.17.1
8vs PHI48544100004.18.16.18.1
10PROJ-Dodds3280.2000475.5 (H=8)7.0 (H=16)
10PROJ-Tremblay2330.20004.56.55.5 (H=8)6.5 (H=14)
10PROJ-Bloom2220.10002.84.83.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)

Colts vs TE

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.4)26 (+2.5)21T (+1.5)25 (+2.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.5)21 (+1.2)21 (+0.7)21 (+0.7)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Chris Herndon282256111.613.612.613.6
7Charles Clay39531401.44.40.93.4
8Jared Cook315474113.417.415.417.4

James OShaughnessy (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
10PROJ-Dodds3270.23.96.95.4 (H=9)6.9 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay2240.23.65.64.6 (H=7)5.6 (H=15)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

David Grinnage (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU31221701.73.72.73.7
8vs PHI28533703.76.75.26.7
10PROJ-Dodds2170.12.34.33.3 (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay2180.12.44.43.4 (H=4)4.4 (H=10)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU220000000.00.0
8vs PHI32211301.32.31.82.3
10PROJ-Dodds1800.81.81.31.8 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.01.5 (H=1)

Colts vs PK

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.7)31 (+2.7)31 (+2.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+3.3)32 (+3.3)30 (+3.5) (+0.0)
WEEKPLAYERFGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
6Jason Myers7733242427.027.0
7Steve Hauschka1100333.03.0
8Daniel Carlson0044444.04.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

FGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU0011111.01.0
8vs PHI4400121216.016.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.722.12.27.27.28.48.4
10PROJ-Tremblay1.622.22.2778.18.1

Colts vs TD

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.9)27 (+1.9)12 (-1.0)12 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.1)17 (-1.1)9 (-4.3)9 (-4.3)
WEEKPLAYERPTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
6New York Jets3442803101141413.013.0
7Buffalo Bills373760001022-2.0-2.0
8Oakland Raiders424610000000-4.0-4.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2900)

PTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs HOU20.0027210000112.02.0
8vs PHI24.00395411008810.010.0
10PROJ-Dodds24.503402.210.700.48.38.38.3 (H=19)8.3 (H=26)
10PROJ-Tremblay24.753452.210.700.48.18.18.1 (H=18)8.1 (H=25)

Jaguars vs QB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.4)4 (-3.3)4 (-3.0)4 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.7)26 (+3.0)25 (+2.9)24 (+2.5)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Dak Prescott671727183201182131.431.429.529.5
7Deshaun Watson64122413910713012.312.310.910.9
8Carson Wentz62213028631628028.529.524.125.6

Andrew Luck (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $5500)

oSNAPCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF5817231564035024.324.322.722.7
8@ OAK782231239302-2023.823.823.423.4
10PROJ-Dodds23362481.814140.120.620.620.6 (H=48)20.6 (H=68)
10PROJ-Tremblay21332171.613110.1181818.0 (H=38)18.0 (H=54)
10PROJ-Bloom19272061.90.73120.219.619.619.6 (H=44)19.6 (H=62)

Jaguars vs RB

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.1)11T (-4.7)8 (-3.8)8 (-4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.2)11 (-2.4)15 (-0.9)16 (-0.9)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Ezekiel Elliott632410611111017.718.718.221.7
6Rod Smith854000000.40.40.40.4
7Lamar Miller4522100131-1015.916.916.419.9
7Alfred Blue27828000002.82.82.82.8
8Wendell Smallwood3182403242112.614.613.614.6
8Josh Adams18961011606.77.77.27.7

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6000)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF371912613233127.929.930.934.9
8@ OAK492513224217026.928.927.931.9
10PROJ-Dodds16710.52180.112.514.513.5 (H=24)14.5 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay17780.52170.113.115.114.1 (H=26)15.1 (H=36)
10PROJ-Bloom15640.52200.1121413.0 (H=22)14.0 (H=32)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3700)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF17547021-504.25.24.75.2
8@ OAK281178022708.510.59.510.5
10PROJ-Dodds5210.23190.15.88.87.3 (H=11)8.8 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay6250.22120.15.57.56.5 (H=9)7.5 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom9420.22180.17.89.88.8 (H=16)9.8 (H=28)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF15646011805.46.45.96.4
8@ OAK3214000001.41.41.41.4
10PROJ-Dodds3100.10001.61.61.6 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay2100.10201.81.81.8 (H=1)1.8 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom31100001.11.11.1 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Robert Turbin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

oSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
10PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay150.10201.31.31.3 (H=0)1.3 (H=0)

Jaguars vs WR

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.4)2 (-8.2)1 (-7.6)2 (-9.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.3)9 (-3.7)10 (-3.0)9 (-4.0)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Cole Beasley42119101200022.131.126.634.1
6Michael Gallup59212700002.73.73.23.7
7DeAndre Hopkins648350100011.014.012.514.0
7Will Fuller52866800006.812.89.812.8
8Jordan Matthews34549300009.313.311.313.3
8Nelson Agholor576349011406.39.37.89.3

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5700)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF354425200014.518.516.518.5
8@ OAK64513400003.44.43.94.4
10PROJ-Dodds4620.40008.612.610.6 (H=17)12.6 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay3430.30006.19.17.6 (H=9)9.1 (H=16)
10PROJ-Bloom5600.60009.614.612.1 (H=21)14.6 (H=36)

Dontrelle Inman (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3000)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF420000000000.00.0
8@ OAK58765200005.211.28.211.2
10PROJ-Dodds2260.20003.85.84.8 (H=5)5.8 (H=14)
10PROJ-Tremblay3320.20004.47.45.9 (H=8)7.4 (H=21)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3700)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF3644400000486.08.0
8@ OAK391000000002.02.0
10PROJ-Dodds2240.1000354.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=9)
10PROJ-Tremblay2210.10002.74.73.8 (H=3)4.8 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom2210.20003.35.34.4 (H=4)5.4 (H=10)

Ryan Grant (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDRSHYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
10PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay2230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=8)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs TE

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.3)8 (-2.5)8 (-1.9)8 (-2.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.9)12 (-2.6)13 (-1.7)12 (-2.7)
WEEKPLAYERoSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Geoff Swaim66222102.14.13.14.1
7Jordan Akins3000000.00.00.00.0
8Dallas Goedert30113219.210.29.710.2

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4300)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
8@ OAK5776701131916.019.0
10PROJ-Dodds4440.36.210.28.2 (H=13)10.2 (H=25)
10PROJ-Tremblay3320.3586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom5530.47.712.710.2 (H=19)12.7 (H=37)

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3500)

oSNAPTARGRECYDTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF33733103.16.14.66.1
8@ OAK17333719.712.711.212.7
10PROJ-Dodds3340.35.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=21)
10PROJ-Tremblay2190.23.15.14.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=9)
10PROJ-Bloom3340.56.49.47.9 (H=13)9.4 (H=27)

Jaguars vs PK

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.1)30 (+2.1)30 (+2.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.0)31 (+3.0)32 (+4.5) (+0.0)
WEEKPLAYERFGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
6Brett Maher4444161621.021.0
7Kaimi Fairbairn22228810.010.0
8Jake Elliott1133666.06.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

FGFGAXPXPASTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF1124555.05.0
8@ OAK2244101010.010.0
10PROJ-Dodds1.92.32.52.68.28.29.59.5
10PROJ-Tremblay1.92.32.52.58.28.29.59.5

Jaguars vs TD

STANDARDPPRFDDK
Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.4)24 (+1.4)29T (+3.1)29T (+3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (+1.2)23T (+1.2)25T (+4.0)25T (+4.0)
WEEKPLAYERPTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
6Dallas Cowboys7204311007711.011.0
7Houston Texans725941200101014.014.0
8Philadelphia Eagles1833540100667.07.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2800)

PTYDSACKINTFRSFTYTDSTDPPRFDDK
7vs BUF5.0030323200121219.019.0
8@ OAK28.0034700100221.01.0
10PROJ-Dodds21.803782.31.20.700.49.29.29.2 (H=23)9.2 (H=33)
10PROJ-Tremblay21.753892.51.20.700.49.49.49.4 (H=24)9.4 (H=34)