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Matchup Analysis: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Lions 19, Bears 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Detroit Lions Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Lions Offense22.5 (-1.5) (20)104 (-6) (20)249 (-2) (20)
Bears Defense19.1 (-4.9) (4)85 (-25) (3)236 (-14) (12)

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense29.4 (+5.3) (5)128 (+17) (7)230 (-20) (21)
Lions Defense26.2 (+2.2) (23)142 (+31) (30)215 (-36) (4)

Lions Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Rookie Kerryon Johnson has cooled a bit after a mammoth breakout, managing just 59 yards on 21 attempts over the last 2 weeks. But context is important as both of those games came against the stout run defenses of Seattle and Minnesota, and both had scripts that took the rhythm right out of Johnson’s game. Prior to them, Johnson had averaged a wild 7.27 yards per rush in his NFL debut, already topping 70 yards 3 times in just a part-time role. He’s a significantly better ground option for the Lions than LeGarrette Blount (2.74 a carry) and keeps dominating snaps, and a return to dynamism is likely coming. With guard T.J. Lang back in action, Johnson runs behind one of the league’s better run-blocking lines, and he’s electric when given a crease. He won’t be high-volume or even very projectable all season, but he’ll always be a strong candidate to maximizes his carries and produce at the high end of his outcome range.

The Bears have benefited from a fairly weak schedule, but it’s still been impressive to watch them dominate opposing run games. They’ve been gashed just once all year which was in a long, overtime slugfest back in Week 6 and have simply dominated all other comers. Apart from that game, no opposing runner has topped 50 yards, averaging just 3.20 yards per carry along the way. Underrated nose Eddie Goldman sets the tone up front, and the active linebackers, led by super rookie Roquan Smith, are fantastic in flow and pursuit. Kerryon Johnson has been a dynamic weapon for the Lions, but he’ll be facing his toughest test yet by far. This front seven tends to control the line of scrimmage and dictate the run game to its own liking.

Lions Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bears defense.

All things considered, Matthew Stafford wasn’t terrible against the Vikings last Sunday. Sure, he generated only 199 yards and repeatedly shrunk in the red zone. But it’s worth pointing out that the team had just traded away his security blanket, Golden Tate, and that his line had absolutely no chance against a swarming Vikings pass rush that notched 10 sacks. Stafford still has dynamic weaponry to throw to in Marvin Jones (9.37 yards per target as a Lion) and Kenny Golladay (10.4). But he clearly misses Tate’s improvisational skills near the line of scrimmage, where running back Theo Riddick is a poor substitute. Stafford will likely be more boom-or-bust than usual going forward; when Jones and Golladay are winning battles downfield, there will always be potential for splash plays. But that will rarely be easy to project, so pinning down this unit’s true week-to-week projection will be a bit of a headache. And without better pass blocking – a healthy Taylor Decker would be a great start – he won’t have many easy, snap-and-release days to pile up production.

The Chicago pass defense has looked great thus far on paper, at least. They currently are currently 13th in terms of passing yards allowed, allowing 254 yards per game. But much of their dominance has been built on the back of a comically weak schedule; thus far they’ve defended the likes of Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, Sam Darnold, Nathan Peterman, and the Buccaneers’ mistake-prone duo. When forced to defend elite passers Tom Brady (277 yards and 3 touchdowns) and Aaron Rodgers (286 and 3 in limited time), they’ve looked quite human. Still, on the whole, this is not a particularly east unit to throw against. The cornerbacks, led by press stud Prince Amukamara, have graded well all year, and the pass rush is strong even without Khalil Mack on the field. If Mack can return this week as expected, he should boost an already-strong group back near the NFL’s top tier.

Bears Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Lions defense.

Jordan Howard continues to underwhelm with consistency as the hammer-back in Matt Nagy’s scheme. With this dominant defense, Nagy would love an efficient power runner to grind out clock and ice games late. But Howard is sitting on just 3.48 yards a carry, offering almost zero elusiveness or creativity. Howard does little more than slam into the line, and even that outlook is threatened with top blocker Kyle Long now on injured reserve. All told, the Bears’ only effective running thus far has come from Mitchell Trubisky scrambles (7.95 yards per attempt) and Tarik Cohen’s dual-threat explosiveness. Cohen is averaging 4.69 per rush, and his dynamism as a short-area receiver often serves as an extension of the run game. Nagy has to get innovative, after all, to make up for Howard’s deficiencies.

Just like that, the Lions now field a competent run defense. Their trade for tackle Damon Harrison was a game-changer – he’s both a dominant gap-plugger and a dynamic penetrator, and he singlehandedly reinvents one of the league’s leakiest units. After giving up a whopping 5.53 yards per attempt to opposing runners (and 94 per game to lead backs) to open the season, they tightened up nicely last Sunday with Harrison on board. Aside from Dalvin Cook’s 70-yard scamper, he and Latavius Murray managed just 50 yards on 19 rushes for the Vikings. Those chunk runs will still happen against this shaky linebacking corps, as middleman Jarrad Davis still looks lost and his teammates are often blown out of position. But with Harrison on board, it will be much tougher to grind the Lions up the gut. Power backs like Chicago’s Jordan Howard, who rely upon strong interior blocking, take on a notable downgrade going forward, but this is a defense that could be exploited out wide with Tarik Cohen.

Bears Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Lions defense.

Mitchell Trubisky remains a work in progress. His big three-game run (1,003 yards and 11 touchdowns in Weeks 4-7) hinted at a breakout, but things have slowed for Trubisky, who’s looked shaky at best in back-to-back starts since. In fact, those 3 games have been his only times topping 220 yards thus far this season. Game flow often robs Trubisky of his volume, but he’s been a major culprit himself, struggling for consistency and failing to create anything down the field. Accuracy is still a major concern for the youngster, who often rushes throws with bad balance and winds up putting the ball in jeopardy. He’s thrown just six interceptions on the year, but also had a few dropped, and he routinely misplaces downfield throws to his receivers. As a result, there’s little projectable fantasy dynamism anywhere among his receivers. Taylor Gabriel can get deep, and Trey Burton can create space down the seams, but Trubisky can’t be trusted to utilize them with any rhythm whatsoever. Not even the return of Allen Robinson (just 48 yards per game) would suggest a return to the heights of that earlier stretch. This is an offense designed to keep the ball out of Trubisky’s hands and not allow him many big-play opportunities. After all, he really hasn’t earned them.

The Detroit pass defense is one that is regressing a little bit. After an impressive start to the season, they’ve allowed their last 4 opponents to complete 70% of their throws and average 8.96 yards on them, with 9 touchdowns. Last Sunday they managed to hold red-hot Adam Thielen under 100 yards for the first time all year, but the game flow was the hero there (Kirk Cousins threw just 22 passes), and Thielen did manage to sneak by for an easy short score. The Lions boast a solid outside cover man in Darius Slay, but he’s not enough to shut down a passing game on his own, and his teammates have been shaky at best. The pass rush helps, especially with Ezekiel Ansah back on board. But there are enough coverage deficiencies to make this a fairly targetable group in fantasy.

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.0)17 (-1.0)16 (-1.1)14 (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.2)18 (+0.1)19 (+1.0)19 (+0.8)
6Brock Osweiler7828443803228029.829.828.031.0
7Tom Brady6425362773116025.525.522.722.7
8Sam Darnold54142915310522013.913.912.312.3
9Nathan Peterman90314918903846117.

Matthew Stafford (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5000)

7@ MIA6418222172049019.819.817.617.6
8vs SEA5927403102116023.
9@ MIN7025361990056010.610.66.67.6
10PROJ-Dodds24372561.50.9260. (H=48)19.1 (H=66)
10PROJ-Tremblay23362591.31260.118.318.318.3 (H=45)18.3 (H=61)
10PROJ-Bloom23352171.41260.116.616.616.6 (H=38)16.6 (H=51)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.8)3 (-7.1)1 (-7.3)2 (-7.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.7)13 (-1.9)7 (-3.6)12 (-2.2)
6Frank Gore301510101118011.912.912.415.9
6Kenyan Drake4913570642107.811.87.810.8
7James White451140010857221.729.725.729.7
7Kenjon Barner171036000003.
8Isaiah Crowell2513250111303.
8Trenton Cannon296100431202.
9Chris Ivory307360432005.
9LeSean McCoy3710100441902.

Kerryon Johnson (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4700)

7@ MIA381915803221017.919.918.922.9
8vs SEA488220866909.
9@ MIN391237053704.
10PROJ-Dodds14560.232008.811.810.3 (H=19)11.8 (H=30)
10PROJ-Tremblay12530.331808.911.910.4 (H=19)11.9 (H=31)
10PROJ-Bloom13450.33170.18.611.610.1 (H=18)11.6 (H=29)

Theo Riddick (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3800)

9@ MIN39000873603.610.67.110.6
10PROJ-Dodds2604310. (H=9)8.3 (H=20)
10PROJ-Tremblay1504300. (H=8)8.1 (H=19)
10PROJ-Bloom0005310. (H=9)8.7 (H=22)

LeGarrette Blount (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3100)

7@ MIA21105010000111111.011.0
8vs SEA7330112302.
9@ MIN115801120121.52.0
10PROJ-Dodds6220.3000444.0 (H=4)4.0 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay6220.20203.63.63.6 (H=3)3.6 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom490.20002.12.12.1 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.9)19 (+0.3)20 (+0.5)21 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.3)14 (-1.5)16 (-0.4)19 (+0.4)
6Albert Wilson509615521-5027.
6Danny Amendola751185900005.913.99.913.9
7Josh Gordon6174100000010.
7Julian Edelman63853610009.614.612.114.6
8Deontay Burnett41446100006.
8Jermaine Kearse521033000003.
9Kelvin Benjamin67944000004.
9Zay Jones79641801001.

Marvin Jones (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5500)

7@ MIA56432900002.
8vs SEA57107117200023.730.727.233.7
9@ MIN63866600006.612.69.612.6
10PROJ-Dodds5720.500010.215.212.7 (H=26)15.2 (H=40)
10PROJ-Tremblay6760.500010.616.613.6 (H=29)16.6 (H=47)
10PROJ-Bloom6690.50009.915.912.9 (H=27)15.9 (H=43)

Kenny Golladay (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5100)

7@ MIA49223700003.
8vs SEA54111200001.
9@ MIN68434601805.
10PROJ-Dodds5670.41309.414.411.9 (H=25)14.4 (H=39)
10PROJ-Tremblay5750.403010.215.212.7 (H=28)15.2 (H=43)
10PROJ-Bloom4580.40008.212.210.2 (H=19)12.2 (H=29)

T.J. Jones (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ MIA8112600002.
9@ MIN36221300001.
10PROJ-Dodds2270.10003.35.34.3 (H=5)5.3 (H=11)
10PROJ-Tremblay2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
10PROJ-Bloom2140.1000243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=7)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.1)14 (-0.6)14 (-0.5)13 (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.0)16 (-1.1)14 (-1.5)15 (-1.4)
6Nick OLeary524449110.914.912.914.9
7Dwayne Allen5500000.
8Chris Herndon27211617.
9Logan Thomas47874004.011.07.511.0

Michael Roberts (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ MIA193348216.819.818.319.8
8vs SEA181000000.00.0
9@ MIN36411201.
10PROJ-Dodds1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay1120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom1130. (H=1)2.9 (H=5)

Luke Willson (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ MIA4122800.
8vs SEA36432102.
9@ MIN34221701.
10PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-1.8)3 (-1.8)5 (-1.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.5)13T (-0.5)15 (-0.1) (+0.0)
6Jason Sanders3322111114.014.0
7Stephen Gostkowski1155888.08.0
8Jason Myers1111445.05.0
9Steve Hauschka1100334.04.0

Matt Prater (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ MIA4422141416.016.0
8vs SEA0022222.02.0
9@ MIN3300999.09.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.2)14T (-0.2)19T (-0.7)19T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.3)25 (+1.3)19 (+0.9)19 (+0.9)
6Miami Dolphins2846721200887.07.0
7New England Patriots3145322002181819.019.0
8New York Jets2439520000222.02.0
9Buffalo Bills4119011000332.02.0

Detroit Lions (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2600)

7@ MIA21.0032240000444.04.0
8vs SEA28.0041320000221.01.0
9@ MIN24.0028311100556.06.0
10PROJ-Dodds26.303702.30.80.600. (H=18)7.3 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay25.2535620.90.600. (H=20)7.6 (H=25)

Lions vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.0)8 (-2.0)8 (-1.9)8 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)10 (-2.2)10 (-2.2)9 (-2.8)
7Brock Osweiler5622312392012020.220.217.817.8
8Russell Wilson63141724830215025.925.923.423.4
9Kirk Cousins4918221641123011.511.57.98.9

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5600)

7vs NE82265033322681136.836.833.436.4
8vs NYJ66162922020651024.124.121.921.9
9@ BUF4812201351116010.410.49.09.0
10PROJ-Dodds21322431.60.85340.222.422.422.4 (H=56)22.4 (H=77)
10PROJ-Tremblay20312261.615370.221.621.621.6 (H=53)21.6 (H=73)
10PROJ-Bloom1725188214160. (H=43)19.2 (H=59)

Lions vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.6)25 (+4.0)24 (+4.7)25 (+5.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.1)19 (+0.2)21 (+0.9)20 (+0.7)
7Kenyan Drake3667218415014.718.716.718.7
7Frank Gore251029011403.
8Chris Carson422510512219018.420.419.423.4
8Mike Davis201033011203.
9Dalvin Cook28108904420010.914.912.914.9
9Latavius Murray22103111116010.711.711.211.7

Jordan Howard (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4700)

7vs NE4612391119010.811.811.311.8
8vs NYJ3822811100014.
9@ BUF2614472000016.716.716.716.7
10PROJ-Dodds16620.7111011.512.512.0 (H=22)12.5 (H=33)
10PROJ-Tremblay15600.51100101110.5 (H=18)11.0 (H=27)
10PROJ-Bloom18590.700010.110.110.1 (H=16)10.1 (H=23)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5500)

7vs NE42614012869114.322.318.322.3
8vs NYJ38540031701171817.518.0
9@ BUF2865021801.
10PROJ-Dodds6280.25480.2101512.6 (H=25)15.1 (H=40)
10PROJ-Tremblay6260.24360.28.612.610.7 (H=18)12.7 (H=29)
10PROJ-Bloom6290.23260.38.511.510.1 (H=17)11.6 (H=25)

Lions vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.3)5 (-5.4)9 (-3.1)6 (-5.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.8)16 (-1.3)19 (-0.3)12 (-2.6)
7Danny Amendola557684100014.420.417.420.4
7Kenny Stills4931510006.
8David Moore454497100015.719.717.719.7
8Tyler Lockett4422341213010.712.711.712.7
9Adam Thielen45742211508.712.710.712.7
9Laquon Treadwell41223700003.

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4900)

7vs NE64432601002.
8vs NYJ44645200005.
9@ BUF44534500004.
10PROJ-Dodds4450.31506.810.88.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=25)
10PROJ-Tremblay3340.20304.97.96.4 (H=9)7.9 (H=14)
10PROJ-Bloom4490.3160.17.911.99.9 (H=19)11.9 (H=29)

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5000)

7vs NE6051400000.
10PROJ-Dodds4450.30006.310.38.3 (H=12)10.3 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay3350.20004.77.76.2 (H=7)7.7 (H=13)
10PROJ-Bloom3450.40006.99.98.4 (H=12)9.9 (H=21)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

7vs NE52723500003.
8vs NYJ487337117010.413.411.913.4
9@ BUF36654901905.810.88.310.8
10PROJ-Dodds3360.4000697.5 (H=12)9.0 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay3370.30305.88.87.3 (H=11)8.8 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom4380.40006.210.28.2 (H=14)10.2 (H=29)

Josh Bellamy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs NE194000000000.00.0
8vs NYJ55543700003.
9@ BUF322000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay1190.10002.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Kevin White (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs NE20226400006.
8vs NYJ2931600000.
10PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay180.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Lions vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.5)16 (-0.0)17 (+0.2)15 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-0.5)15 (-1.5)16 (-0.9)14 (-1.6)
7Mike Gesicki16334404.
8Ed Dickson202254111.413.412.413.4
9Kyle Rudolph46222802.

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $3900)

7vs NE70119126118.627.623.130.6
8vs NYJ48431801.
9@ BUF40322818.810.89.810.8
10PROJ-Dodds4450.46.910.98.9 (H=14)10.9 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay3400. (H=11)9.4 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom3300. (H=12)9.6 (H=25)

Lions vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (+0.1)2T (+0.1)2T (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-2.7)2 (-2.7)2 (-3.5) (+0.0)
7Jason Sanders0133333.03.0
8Sebastian Janikowski0044444.04.0
9Dan Bailey1133666.06.0

Cody Parkey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs NE1144778.08.0
8vs NYJ1233666.06.0
9@ BUF2255111112.012.0

Lions vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.3)22 (+1.3)25T (+1.9)25T (+1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.9)29 (+4.9)25 (+4.0)25 (+4.0)
7Miami Dolphins3245710000110.00.0
8Seattle Seahawks14331312009910.010.0
9Minnesota Vikings9209100101242422.022.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

7vs NE38.0038111200773.03.0
8vs NYJ10.0020710000115.05.0
9@ BUF9.0026443102303028.028.0
10PROJ-Dodds19.303422.60.90.800. (H=21)9.9 (H=29)
10PROJ-Tremblay18.753482.310.800.510.410.410.4 (H=23)10.4 (H=32)