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Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bills 14, Jets 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense10.7 (-13.4) (32)97 (-13) (23)151 (-99) (32)
Jets Defense23.7 (-0.4) (16)109 (-1) (18)242 (-8) (13)

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense22.0 (-2.0) (22)110 (+0) (17)201 (-50) (28)
Bills Defense26.8 (+2.7) (26)102 (-9) (11)212 (-38) (3)

Bills Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jets defense.

LeSean McCoy isn’t producing much of anything at this point. Over his last 3 games, he’s turned 24 carries into just 24 yards, and he’s averaging just 33 per game for the year. It’s hardly his fault, though, trapped in the NFL’s most anemic offense. McCoy runs behind one of the league’s worst front lines (our Matt Bitonti ranks it 24th), and with the world’s worst passing game in play, he’s swarmed on nearly every snap. Amazingly, he’s been stopped for 2 yards or fewer on 40 of his 85 runs thus far. McCoy has some juice left in his legs – he posted two strong games against the Titans and Texans – and he’d have made a great acquisition for a buyer like Philadelphia. But in his current spot, he’s no more than a low-ceiling flex play in fantasy. There’s just no reason to ever project him for efficiency or touchdown opportunity in this offense.

The Jets continue to field a generally sound run defense, but it’s an inconsistent one. They’ve been strong against power runners, holding Leonard Fournette, Jordan Howard, and Frank Gore to a combined 3.05 yards per carry. But they tend to come unglued against speedy backs, so guys like Marlon Mack, Kenyan Drake, and Tarik Cohen have produced plenty of efficiencies. The linebacking corps sorely misses Demario Davis, lacking in athleticism to cover gaps and to pursue. It’s hard to call this a targetable unit for fantasy purposes, considering how well they tend to neutralize lead runners. But there are often plenty of opportunities for speedier backs to break into the second level, so there’s always upside in this matchup.

Bills Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jets defense.

Rookie Josh Allen looks unlikely to return this week, so Derek Anderson should draw Sunday’s start assuming he clears concussion protocol. And somehow, that gives the Bills their best chance to win. He did throw for 290 yards in Week 8 but remains who he is which is a 35-year-old, backup-caliber passer with 4.92 adjusted net yards per attempt for his career. Unless he’s given a very high volume of targets, Anderson looks highly unlikely to produce even passable fantasy numbers. His league-worst receiving corps doesn’t help his case much. Leading receiver Kelvin Benjamin has produced 34 yards a game, headlining a mistake-prone group that provides no dynamism to whoever is under center. Terrelle Pryor should become the top wideout before long, but even if he does, there’s not a shred of fantasy intrigue among this group.

The Jets pass defense is rolling, giving up just 6.45 yards per attempt and 200 per game over its last three. It needs to be pointed out, of course, that they’re in the middle of an embarrassingly light stretch of quarterback scheduling. Since Week 2 they’ve had the privilege of facing the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky, and Brock Osweiler. Still, they looked stout against Kirk Cousins and company three weeks ago, and the steps forward have been noticeable. Morris Claiborne has played at an All-Pro level at one cornerback spot, and little-known Darryl Roberts opening eyes at the other. Most of their problems this year have come underneath when quarterbacks lay off the corners and attack with quick-hitting routes. But for Week 10, with Derek Anderson under center for the Bills, it’s safe to assume that sharp, precise quarterbacking isn’t a huge concern.

Jets Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bills defense.

With Bilal Powell shelved, the Jets could definitely use a backfield jolt from the recently-activated Elijah McGuire. His season debut was impressive, totaling 30 yards on 7 rushes, and he looks more capable of creating his own yardage than Isaiah Crowell. Lacking real burst and athleticism, Crowell is enormously dependent upon his blocking to produce anything of note. And his line (currently ranked 20th by our Matt Bitonti) is far too inconsistent to rely upon week-to-week. Crowell’s 2018 resume boasts a pair of enormous games, but they look like major outliers. Over the other 7, he’s averaged just 30 yards at 2.59 a run. McGuire doesn’t excel in any area, but he brings more dynamism to the table and should claim at least Powell’s role, if not more.

Buffalo’s run defense has been an occasional bright spot during this 2-7 campaign. It’s been beaten up several times but has also risen to the occasion here and there. They’ve thoroughly shut down 3 of the last 4 running games they’ve faced, holding the Texans, Patriots, and Bears to a combined 214 ground yards. Kyle Williams and Star Lotulelei make for a strong if not dominant interior and the linebackers have been fairly solid.

Jets Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bills defense.

It projects as a noticeable Week 10 upgrade for the Jets passing game this week as veteran Josh McCown will step under center for the first time this year. McCown has never been better than average, but he should bring a steadying influence to a pass game riddled with misfires and bad turnovers. Last year, McCown completed a studly 67% of his throws and threw just 8 interceptions over full 12 games. Most importantly, he established a healthy rapport with deep threat Robby Anderson; the pair averaged 68 yards together last year, with a touchdown per 12 targets. McCown himself doesn’t project to much as a fantasy option – he posted just 240 yards per game last season. But if nothing else, he’ll make Anderson viable again, and he’ll see the field significantly better than the green rookie.

The Buffalo pass defense isn’t very consistent, but it’s aggressive and capable of rattling quarterbacks. The pass rush is active and diverse, and Tre’Davious White has quickly ascended to the upper echelon of NFL cornerbacks, one capable of turning opposing pass games shaky and lopsided. White isn’t a shadow cornerback, so he doesn’t necessarily trail No. 1 wideouts across the field. But he’s done phenomenal work on the likes of Stefon Diggs (17 yards on 10 targets), DeAndre Hopkins (63 on 6), and T.Y. Hilton (25 on 4) thus far. There are deficiencies elsewhere in the secondary, so this isn’t too intimidating a matchup. Big games against this group are hard to come by for a number of reasons, but big-play opportunities are often plentiful.

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.5)13 (-1.5)15 (-1.2)15 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.4)14 (-0.8)14 (-1.0)
6Andrew Luck6923433014327028.828.825.728.7
7Kirk Cousins692540241202-1020.020.017.517.5
8Mitchell Trubisky66162922020651024.124.121.921.9
9Brock Osweiler571524139003407.

Derek Anderson (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4300)

7@ IND562031175030005.
8vs NE622239290011-1013.413.48.59.5
10PROJ-Dodds18312001.11.43130.114.914.914.9 (H=34)14.9 (H=50)
10PROJ-Tremblay9151030.40.53110.1888.0 (H=11)8.0 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom21321940.7100011.511.511.5 (H=22)11.5 (H=31)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.4)18 (+0.3)18 (+0.1)15 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.4)14 (-1.4)16 (-0.8)13 (-2.1)
6Marlon Mack241289021409.310.39.810.3
6Nyheim Hines303140322103.
7Latavius Murray58156922214020.322.321.322.3
7Roc Thomas3123000002.
8Tarik Cohen3854003170117.018.017.518.0
8Jordan Howard3822811100014.
9Frank Gore292053011605.
9Kenyan Drake28390642603.

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4500)

7@ IND221000000.
8vs NE4612130868209.515.512.515.5
9vs CHI3710100441902.
10PROJ-Dodds17630.33220.110.913.912.4 (H=27)13.9 (H=42)
10PROJ-Tremblay9360.221606.48.47.4 (H=11)8.4 (H=17)
10PROJ-Bloom16560.23150.18.911.910.4 (H=20)11.9 (H=32)

Marcus Murphy (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

7@ IND184530651707129.512.0
8vs NE10000000000.00.0
9vs CHI2416043-70-
10PROJ-Dodds4190.11903.44.43.9 (H=4)4.4 (H=7)
10PROJ-Tremblay28021101.93.92.9 (H=2)3.9 (H=6)
10PROJ-Bloom620031403.46.44.9 (H=6)6.4 (H=15)

Chris Ivory (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

7@ IND36168106325010.613.612.113.6
8vs NE196340211104.
9vs CHI307360432005.
10PROJ-Dodds4160.1180343.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
10PROJ-Tremblay11450.221707.49.48.4 (H=15)9.4 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.9)26 (+3.2)24 (+2.0)26 (+3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.9)19 (+0.4)18 (-0.3)18 (-0.2)
6Chester Rogers4610455100011.515.513.515.5
6Marcus Johnson343252100011.
7Adam Thielen66109110100017.026.021.529.0
7Aldrick Robinson8313410009.410.49.910.4
8Anthony Miller487337117010.413.411.913.4
8Taylor Gabriel44645200005.
9Danny Amendola47754700004.
9Kenny Stills28111900001.

Kelvin Benjamin (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3400)

7@ IND44547100007.
8vs NE49724500004.
9vs CHI6794400000486.08.0
10PROJ-Dodds3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=22)
10PROJ-Tremblay3390.20005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=22)
10PROJ-Bloom4550.20006.710.78.7 (H=16)10.7 (H=35)

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

7@ IND51532700002.
8vs NE60865500005.511.58.511.5
9vs CHI79641801001.
10PROJ-Dodds3350.10004.17.15.6 (H=8)7.1 (H=18)
10PROJ-Tremblay3340.20104.77.76.2 (H=10)7.7 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom3310.10003.76.75.2 (H=7)6.7 (H=16)

Terrelle Pryor (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

9vs CHI75521701-
10PROJ-Dodds2240.1000354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)
10PROJ-Tremblay2270.10203.55.54.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=12)
10PROJ-Bloom2230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=10)

Andre Holmes (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

7@ IND38211300001.
8vs NE35324500004.
9vs CHI2411600000.
10PROJ-Dodds11400001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
10PROJ-Bloom1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.3)4 (-4.2)5 (-3.2)4 (-4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.5)8 (-3.3)10 (-2.3)7 (-3.4)
6Eric Ebron497471113.
7Kyle Rudolph56411601.
8Trey Burton48431801.
9Durham Smythe900000.

Jason Croom (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ IND1621800.
8vs NE17311401.
9vs CHI42533603.
10PROJ-Dodds2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)
10PROJ-Tremblay1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
10PROJ-Bloom2250. (H=5)5.1 (H=13)

Charles Clay (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

7@ IND39531401.
8vs NE41633603.
9vs CHI80000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay2190. (H=3)4.5 (H=10)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Logan Thomas (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

7@ IND100000000.00.0
8vs NE180000000.00.0
9vs CHI47874004117.511.0
10PROJ-Dodds21501.53.52.5 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
10PROJ-Tremblay11101.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
10PROJ-Bloom31901.94.93.4 (H=3)4.9 (H=12)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.1)17 (+0.1)17 (-0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.0)27 (+2.0)25 (+1.6) (+0.0)
6Adam Vinatieri2244101010.010.0
7Dan Bailey3444131314.014.0
8Cody Parkey1233666.06.0
9Jason Sanders2211778.08.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ IND1100333.03.0
8vs NE2200669.09.0
9vs CHI1100334.04.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.7)26 (+1.7)27T (+2.8)27T (+2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.6)26 (+2.6)27 (+4.4)27 (+4.4)
6Indianapolis Colts4237421100662.02.0
7Minnesota Vikings1726333100111112.012.0
8Chicago Bears1020710000115.05.0
9Miami Dolphins628244001181825.025.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $3200)

7@ IND37.003760001022-2.0-2.0
8vs NE25.0038720000223.03.0
9vs CHI41.0019011000332.02.0
10PROJ-Dodds22.3032121.10.800. (H=23)8.9 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay21.5033820.90.800. (H=24)9.1 (H=28)

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.9)3 (-3.9)3 (-4.1)1 (-4.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.9)3 (-6.0)3 (-5.6)3 (-5.6)
6Deshaun Watson6115251771222011.
7Andrew Luck5817231564035024.324.322.722.7
8Tom Brady7429453240018017.017.013.816.8
9Mitchell Trubisky4812201351116010.410.49.09.0

Josh McCown (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4300)

10PROJ-Dodds19322121.21.3280.115.515.515.5 (H=38)15.5 (H=53)
10PROJ-Tremblay19312201.20.94110.317.817.817.8 (H=48)17.8 (H=68)
10PROJ-Bloom19312191.412110. (H=46)17.2 (H=64)

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $4500)

7vs MIN71174220613618119.
8@ CHI54142915310522013.913.912.312.3
9@ MIA662139229040007.
10PROJ-Dodds00000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Tremblay00000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom00000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.0)23 (+2.4)23 (+2.1)23 (+2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.6)22 (+1.6)24 (+2.3)23T (+2.3)
6Lamar Miller4115460322507.
6Alfred Blue257260321704.
7Marlon Mack371912613233127.929.930.934.9
7Jordan Wilkins15646011805.
8James White618151131079015.425.420.425.4
8James Develin2700021700.
9Jordan Howard2614472000016.716.716.716.7
9Tarik Cohen2865021801.

Isaiah Crowell (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

7vs MIN331129031210565.56.0
8@ CHI2513250111303.
9@ MIA231349021110676.57.0
10PROJ-Dodds15630.5110010.311.310.8 (H=22)11.3 (H=31)
10PROJ-Tremblay17720.517010.911.911.4 (H=25)11.9 (H=34)
10PROJ-Bloom14510.51909109.5 (H=18)10.0 (H=25)

Elijah McGuire (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

9@ MIA367300533706.
10PROJ-Dodds10380.23190.17.510.59.0 (H=18)10.5 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay8300.23210. (H=16)9.9 (H=31)
10PROJ-Bloom8350.23310.18.411.49.9 (H=21)11.4 (H=39)

Trenton Cannon (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs MIN23240546907.311.39.311.3
8@ CHI296100431202.
9@ MIA7000111501.
10PROJ-Dodds140160121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1301500.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.1)4 (-5.6)4 (-5.6)4 (-6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-5.5)5 (-7.7)5 (-6.6)5 (-8.3)
6DeAndre Hopkins616563100012.317.314.817.3
6Keke Coutee45533300003.
7T.Y. Hilton354425200014.518.516.518.5
7Chester Rogers36444000004.
8Julian Edelman731091040213011.720.716.223.7
8Chris Hogan45224900004.
9Anthony Miller36654901905.810.88.310.8
9Taylor Gabriel44534500004.

Quincy Enunwa (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3700)

9@ MIA4843400000475.57.0
10PROJ-Dodds3410.20005.38.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=21)
10PROJ-Tremblay4500.30006.810.88.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=33)
10PROJ-Bloom4520.40007.611.69.6 (H=19)11.6 (H=37)

Jermaine Kearse (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

7vs MIN642000000000.00.0
8@ CHI52103300000364.56.0
9@ MIA4893200000253.55.0
10PROJ-Dodds3320.20004.47.45.9 (H=9)7.4 (H=18)
10PROJ-Tremblay3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom3250.10003.16.14.6 (H=6)6.1 (H=13)

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3800)

7vs MIN621034400004.
9@ MIA47643201103.
10PROJ-Dodds3310.20004.37.35.8 (H=8)7.3 (H=16)
10PROJ-Tremblay3460.30306.79.78.2 (H=14)9.7 (H=26)
10PROJ-Bloom4550.40007.911.99.9 (H=20)11.9 (H=38)

Deontay Burnett (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs MIN1521900000.
8@ CHI41446100006.
9@ MIA202000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay1140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.0)9 (-1.9)11 (-1.4)9 (-2.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.7)10 (-3.3)9 (-2.4)9 (-3.4)
6Jordan Akins811600.
7Erik Swoope6111717.
8Rob Gronkowski68834304.
9Trey Burton40322818.810.89.810.8

Chris Herndon (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs MIN247442110.
8@ CHI27211617.
9@ MIA42446206.
10PROJ-Dodds2280. (H=7)6.6 (H=16)
10PROJ-Tremblay2250. (H=5)5.7 (H=13)
10PROJ-Bloom3410. (H=13)9.5 (H=31)

Eric Tomlinson (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs MIN2621-50-
8@ CHI60000000.00.0
9@ MIA2421600.
10PROJ-Dodds1800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Jordan Leggett (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs MIN221000000.00.0
8@ CHI121000000.00.0
9@ MIA3321600.
10PROJ-Dodds1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.4)27 (+1.4)28 (+1.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.2)28 (+2.2)26 (+1.9) (+0.0)
6Kaimi Fairbairn2222888.08.0
7Adam Vinatieri1124555.05.0
8Stephen Gostkowski4511131314.014.0
9Cody Parkey2255111112.012.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs MIN1122557.07.0
8@ CHI1111445.05.0
9@ MIA2300669.09.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+5.3)32 (+5.3)32 (+9.5)32 (+9.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+10.8)32 (+10.8)32 (+15.1)32 (+15.1)
6Houston Texans1322922101141420.020.0
7Indianapolis Colts530323200121219.019.0
8New England Patriots633331101131320.020.0
9Chicago Bears926443102303028.028.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

7vs MIN37.003161000011-3.0-3.0
8@ CHI24.0039520000222.02.0
9@ MIA13.0016840000448.08.0
10PROJ-Dodds15.603122.31.2100.713.213.213.2 (H=35)13.2 (H=51)
10PROJ-Tremblay15.00317211.10.10.7131313.0 (H=34)13.0 (H=49)