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Matchup Analysis: Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Falcons 27, Browns 23

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Atlanta Falcons Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Falcons Offense28.5 (+4.5) (8)92 (-18) (28)320 (+69) (2)
Browns Defense27.4 (+3.4) (28)139 (+28) (29)285 (+34) (27)

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense21.1 (-2.9) (23)125 (+13) (9)223 (-27) (23)
Falcons Defense28.2 (+4.2) (29)109 (-1) (17)304 (+53) (29)

Falcons Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The Falcons rebuilt rushing attack with Devonta Freeman out has been one in which has been inconsistent, but weeks like last week where Ito Smith and Tevin Coleman ran for 148 yards against a very good Redskins defense shows what type of upside that these two running backs have. Ito Smith continues to get most of the goal line work for this offense behind an offensive line that has been a strong point of this team as Matt Bitonti has them as his sixth-best offensive line. This is a week where the Falcons are going to want to run the ball against Cleveland as center Alex Mack who spent seven seasons in Cleveland will be coming back to play the team that drafted the Pro Bowl Center.

The Browns rushing defense is quickly turning into the equivalent of the Tampa Bay passing defense in that it is by far the worst in the league. Over the last four games, the Browns are allowing an average of 128 yards and two touchdowns per game to opposing running backs and the issue continues to be a lack of talent on the defensive line and linebacker injuries. The Browns have real problems on the defensive line and one has to wonder if it is fatigue related at this point as the Browns are one of the few teams that do not rotate defensive lineman nearly as much as other teams. After a relatively strong start to the season as Trevon Coley, Emmanuel Ogbah and Larry Ogunjobi have all fallen apart. At the linebacker position, the Browns may get Joe Schobert back which would be a significant help, but they lost Christian Kirksey for the season as he was placed on IR this past week. This should be a tremendous opportunity for the Falcons this week.

Falcons Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Julio Jones finally scored his first touchdown of the season this past week in a game in which the Falcons looked extremely impressive dominating every facet of the passing game as Matt Ryan is having a similar season to 2016 in which he won the MVP. This is a Falcons unit that has so many weapons in the passing game making it extremely difficult to defend especially now that Tevin Coleman is seeing more playing time with the Devonta Freeman injury as Coleman is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield to go alongside Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohammed Sanu, and Austin Hooper.

The Browns simply canít stay healthy this season. While it is looking like Denzel Ward will be able to play, he did miss practice with a hip injury and is likely going to be less than 100%. This is adding to the long line of injuries the Browns secondary has faced as Damarious Randall appears questionable this week after missing last week with a groin injury, Terrance Mitchell was lost for the season earlier this year, and E.J. Gaines just this week was placed on IR. The Browns who started the season with a strong passing defense are quickly deteriorating as they are allowing 325 yards passing per game over their last six contests which is the third worst in the NFL over that stretch.

Browns Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

Nick Chubb and the Browns rushing attack continues to impress this season as the Browns are fully committed to Chubb giving him 18 or more carries in each of his three games so far this season as the starter. While Chubb has yet to break a long run as he did against Oakland earlier this season in which he had 105 yards on just three carries, he possesses the skills to do so and itís only a matter of time before Chubb has a carry longer than 21 yards which is his longest in his three games as a starter. The offensive line for the Browns continues to be an everchanging unit as Greg Robinson is now the left tackle for the Browns after undrafted rookie Desmond Harrison missed time last week due to illness and it appears Robinson will once again get the start.

The Falcons run defense is one that goes as Grady Jarrett goes, as the defensive tackle continues to be one of the best at the position in 2018. In games that Jarrett has played, the Falcons have allowed an average of 70 yards rushing to opposing running backs (Philadelphia, New Orleans, Carolina, New York Giants, Washington). When Jarrett was out or left the game early, the Falcons allowed 94 yards per game including 82 yards to Peyton Barber which was a season-high for the running back. The issue for the Falcons issues remains at the linebacker position as they have shifted their players around this season trying to integrate sixth-round pick Foyesade Oluokun after Duke Riley has largely struggled this season.

Browns Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

Baker Mayfield has been up and down this season, but there are signs of optimism after last weekís performance against the Chiefs. The biggest criticism of Mayfield is that he holds onto the ball too long often taking sacks instead of checking the ball down. He did this in a big way last week as the team made a concerted effort to get Duke Johnson involved as Duke caught nine passes last week and Mayfield was sacked just twice. The receiving group for the Browns continues to be a work in progress as Jarvis Landry has not worked out nearly as well as most had hoped, the Browns did get Rashard Higgins back last week, but he did not look 100% healthy, and Antonio Callaway continues to be a project that does not look ready to consistently contribute. At the moment, it appears that this is an offense that will run through David Njoku, Duke Johnson and Jarvis Landry for the underneath possession receptions.

The Falcons pass defense has struggled for most of the year after a strong week 1 performance against Nick Foles, they have allowed 345 yards passing per game which is the most in the NFL. Part of this is the game script in that the Falcons have a high-powered offense that teams need to throw the ball, and part of this is that the team is not very talented on defense. The Falcons should get Robert Alford back this week which will help, although even when he was in, there was not a noticeable difference from a statistical standpoint. The biggest issue for the Falcons is that Desmond Trufant is no longer the player that he once was and Brian Poole out of the slot has been a liability for the Falcons this season.

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.2)18 (-0.2)17 (-0.7)19 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.9)25 (+2.9)24 (+2.2)26 (+3.0)
6Philip Rivers5311202072100017.417.415.315.3
7Jameis Winston953252365021055127.827.822.126.1
8Ben Roethlisberger7024362572126020.520.517.917.9
9Patrick Mahomes64233237531218031.631.627.830.8

Matt Ryan (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $6200)

7vs NYG6531393791021023.123.119.322.3
9@ WAS6826383504100032.532.529.032.0
10PROJ-Dodds253830120.8290.123.723.723.7 (H=56)23.7 (H=77)
10PROJ-Tremblay22352781.90.92100. (H=50)22.2 (H=69)
10PROJ-Bloom23332612.10.5130.121.821.821.8 (H=48)21.8 (H=67)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.9)31 (+6.4)30 (+6.4)30 (+7.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+13.2)32 (+12.2)32 (+12.4)32 (+12.9)
6Melvin Gordon381813234218033.
6Austin Ekeler21760000006.
7Ronald Jones II296131111508.
7Peyton Barber351130020003.
8James Conner562414626566033.238.235.741.2
8Jaylen Samuels7417000001.
9Kareem Hunt50179122150132.133.132.633.1
9Spencer Ware142120546908.

Tevin Coleman (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5400)

7vs NYG37115012232014.
9@ WAS39138807568227.632.630.132.6
10PROJ-Dodds13600.33250.211.514.513.0 (H=23)14.5 (H=38)
10PROJ-Tremblay12550.43210. (H=22)14.2 (H=36)
10PROJ-Bloom13540.43320.312.815.814.3 (H=27)15.8 (H=44)

Ito Smith (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $3700)

7vs NYG287160222904.
9@ WAS2810601214012.413.412.913.4
10PROJ-Dodds8370.421307.49.48.4 (H=13)9.4 (H=26)
10PROJ-Tremblay10440.411107.98.98.4 (H=13)8.9 (H=23)
10PROJ-Bloom10440.42120.18.610.69.6 (H=17)10.6 (H=32)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.7)24 (+2.7)23 (+1.7)23 (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.1)23 (+2.9)24 (+3.0)23 (+3.1)
6Tyrell Williams4943118211023.926.925.429.9
6Keenan Allen3964620441010.314.312.314.3
7Mike Evans82117107000010.717.714.220.7
7DeSean Jackson43522502819.311.310.311.3
8Antonio Brown708674200019.425.422.425.4
8JuJu Smith-Schuster56643300003.
9Tyreek Hill625469021608.512.510.512.5
9Sammy Watkins49556201206.411.48.911.4

Julio Jones (FanDuel: $8700, DraftKings: $8300)

7vs NYG49129104000010.419.412.921.4
9@ WAS55107121100018.125.121.628.1
10PROJ-Dodds71040.400012.819.816.3 (H=28)19.8 (H=42)
10PROJ-Tremblay7980.401012.319.315.8 (H=27)19.3 (H=40)
10PROJ-Bloom6800.5000111714.0 (H=22)17.0 (H=32)

Calvin Ridley (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5900)

7vs NYG41654300004.
9@ WAS479671116013.719.716.719.7
10PROJ-Dodds4510.41307.811.89.8 (H=15)11.8 (H=24)
10PROJ-Tremblay3450.41307.210.28.7 (H=12)10.2 (H=18)
10PROJ-Bloom5570.60009.314.311.8 (H=21)14.3 (H=33)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5300)

7vs NYG40222100002.
9@ WAS47544500004.
10PROJ-Dodds3430.30006.19.17.6 (H=11)9.1 (H=17)
10PROJ-Tremblay3390.30105.88.87.3 (H=11)8.8 (H=16)
10PROJ-Bloom3360.30005.48.46.9 (H=10)8.4 (H=15)

Marvin Hall (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

7vs NYG123363100012.315.313.815.3
9@ WAS141000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1110.10001.72.72.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay190.10001.52.52.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Justin Hardy (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

7vs NYG14222400002.
9@ WAS140000000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds180.10001.42.42.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
10PROJ-Tremblay190.10001.52.52.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.9)24 (+2.0)24 (+1.3)24 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.8)25 (+3.7)24 (+2.3)25 (+3.4)
6Antonio Gates1621500.
7O.J. Howard63956706.711.79.211.7
8Vance McDonald27334704.
9Travis Kelce619799221.928.925.428.9

Austin Hooper (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3800)

7vs NYG56434804.
9@ WAS54334104.
10PROJ-Dodds4400. (H=12)9.8 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay4360. (H=11)9.4 (H=25)
10PROJ-Bloom3440. (H=11)9.2 (H=24)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)20 (+0.2)19 (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.3)17 (+0.3)17T (+0.5) (+0.0)
7Chandler Catanzaro23238810.010.0
8Chris Boswell1144778.08.0
9Harrison Butker1145777.07.0

Giorgio Tavecchio (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7vs NYG3322111116.016.0
9@ WAS1155888.08.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.8)19 (+0.8)22 (+1.6)22 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.1)19 (+0.1)19T (+0.9)19T (+0.9)
6Los Angeles Chargers14317520009910.010.0
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers2330550100777.07.0
8Pittsburgh Steelers1823721010667.07.0
9Kansas City Chiefs2138821000446.06.0

Atlanta Falcons (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2500)

7vs NYG20.0043340000445.05.0
9@ WAS14.0036631000556.06.0
10PROJ-Dodds23.803792.610.600. (H=21)8.5 (H=32)
10PROJ-Tremblay23.003732.41.10.500. (H=21)8.5 (H=32)

Falcons vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.0)30 (+6.1)30 (+5.8)30 (+6.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.0)30 (+5.9)30 (+5.1)30 (+7.1)
6Jameis Winston66304139542531036.936.932.935.9
7Eli Manning6427383991037024.724.720.723.7
9Alex Smith69304630611122020.520.517.420.4

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5400)

7@ TB68233421520443023.123.120.920.9
8@ PIT6422361802119016.916.915.115.1
9vs KC7229422972100021.921.918.918.9
10PROJ-Dodds23382651.613130.120.620.620.6 (H=50)20.6 (H=69)
10PROJ-Tremblay22372481.41.13170. (H=45)19.2 (H=61)
10PROJ-Bloom24352291.41213017.317.317.3 (H=37)17.3 (H=51)

Falcons vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.8)29 (+5.8)29 (+4.9)29 (+6.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.9)17 (-0.7)14 (-0.9)18 (-0.6)
6Peyton Barber41138204424116.620.618.620.6
6Ronald Jones II12130331601.
7Saquon Barkley591443110951015.424.421.926.4
7Elijhaa Penny612000000.
9Kapri Bibbs213201111509.510.510.010.5
9Adrian Peterson329170331603.

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5500)

7@ TB45188012000141414.014.0
8@ PIT3118650321007.
9vs KC37228511150151615.516.0
10PROJ-Dodds20900.717013.914.914.4 (H=30)14.9 (H=39)
10PROJ-Tremblay22990.718014.915.915.4 (H=34)15.9 (H=43)
10PROJ-Bloom18730.615011.412.411.9 (H=21)12.4 (H=28)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4700)

7@ TB351-40442301.
8@ PIT23200321601.
9vs KC351809978220.629.625.129.6
10PROJ-Dodds2805440.26.411.48.9 (H=15)11.4 (H=28)
10PROJ-Tremblay1603250. (H=6)6.7 (H=11)
10PROJ-Bloom2605420.36.611.69.1 (H=16)11.6 (H=29)

Falcons vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.2)30 (+7.6)30 (+6.9)30 (+8.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+8.1)29 (+11.0)29 (+9.5)30 (+12.7)
6Chris Godwin379656100011.617.614.617.6
6DeSean Jackson34947701708.412.410.412.4
7Odell Beckham6111814311-1020.
7Sterling Shepard5985167000016.721.719.224.7
9Maurice Harris601210124000012.422.417.425.4
9Josh Doctson68633110009.112.110.612.1

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $6200)

7@ TB67151097100015.725.720.725.7
8@ PIT521283900003.911.97.911.9
9vs KC73765000005118.011.0
10PROJ-Dodds6700.30008.814.811.8 (H=22)14.8 (H=34)
10PROJ-Tremblay5600.30007.812.810.3 (H=17)12.8 (H=26)
10PROJ-Bloom7610.40008.515.512.0 (H=23)15.5 (H=37)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

9vs KC29431900001.
10PROJ-Dodds2360.20004.86.85.8 (H=9)6.8 (H=15)
10PROJ-Tremblay3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom3230.10002.95.94.4 (H=5)5.9 (H=12)

Antonio Callaway (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

7@ TB51211400001.
8@ PIT59653610009.614.612.114.6
9vs KC39535100005.
10PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=17)
10PROJ-Tremblay3400.20205.48.47.0 (H=11)8.5 (H=20)
10PROJ-Bloom3450.20005.78.77.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=21)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ TB1111600000.
8@ PIT91000000000.00.0
9vs KC26623602904.
10PROJ-Dodds1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay2200.10202.84.83.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=10)

Damion Ratley (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3200)

7@ TB40332300002.
8@ PIT32412100002.
9vs KC20421600001.
10PROJ-Dodds1100000121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
10PROJ-Tremblay1700000.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
10PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Falcons vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.0)21 (+0.7)20 (+0.4)21 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.2)29 (+5.2)28 (+4.2)29 (+5.1)
6O.J. Howard344462112.
7Evan Engram52421602.
9Vernon Davis32756206.211.28.711.2

David Njoku (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

7@ TB576452111.
8@ PIT540000000.00.0
9vs KC55545305.
10PROJ-Dodds4450.36.310.38.3 (H=14)10.3 (H=27)
10PROJ-Tremblay4400. (H=12)9.8 (H=24)
10PROJ-Bloom4530.47.711.79.7 (H=18)11.7 (H=33)

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

7@ TB240000000.00.0
8@ PIT2411600.
9vs KC260000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1120. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
10PROJ-Tremblay0200.20.20.2 (H=0)0.2 (H=0)
10PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Seth DeValve (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2600)

7@ TB00000000.00.0
8@ PIT5222818.810.89.810.8
9vs KC141000000.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds1600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
10PROJ-Tremblay1500.51.51.0 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Falcons vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-1.2)6T (-1.2)2T (-1.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-2.7)2T (-2.7)2T (-3.5) (+0.0)
6Chandler Catanzaro1123555.05.0
7Aldrick Rosas2200666.06.0
9Dustin Hopkins0022222.02.0

Greg Joseph (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

7@ TB0033333.03.0
8@ PIT2301667.07.0
9vs KC1100335.05.0

Falcons vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.1)12 (-1.1)7 (-2.7)7 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.1)7 (-3.1)5T (-5.0)5T (-5.0)
6Tampa Bay Buccaneers3441610000110.00.0
7New York Giants2342330100555.05.0
9Washington Redskins3849121000440.00.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $2300)

7@ TB26.0045642210141414.014.0
8@ PIT33.0042111100554.04.0
9vs KC37.0049921000440.00.0
10PROJ-Dodds26.103802.30.90.500. (H=17)6.7 (H=23)
10PROJ-Tremblay27.503922.30.90.500. (H=16)6.3 (H=21)