Overvalued Players - Week 12
by Jeff Tefertiller
November 21st, 2012

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.

Quarterback

Drew Brees

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -7
  • Brees has his team back to the .500 mark after a disastrous start to the season. The Saints need a win this week to keep u the momentum but the game versus San Francisco will be a big test. The 49ers defense made the Bears look awful last Monday night. While we would not advise sitting the New Orleans quarterback, his upside is limited against very good defense.

    Aaron Rodgers

  • Top 200 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 4
  • Difference: -3
  • Rodgers has held the offense together even with all of the injuries suffered across the offensive line, at the receiver position, and starting tailback Cedric Benson. Even the top ranked fantasy quarterback is not a great play as the Packers travel to New York to face the Giants. The Giants are coming off a bye week and should be focused on stopping the high-octane passing game. Rodgers is still a star and will put up numbers, but maybe not to the level we have come to expect from him.

    Running Back

    Ahmad Bradshaw

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -7
  • Bradshaw and the Giants host the red-hot Green Bay Packers this week. Even with the bye week to recover, Bradshaw is still not fully healthy, and is bothered by his neck injury. The Packers defense has played better of late and will pose a big test for the New York starting back. But, it is worth noting that Andre Brown has taken over the short yardage duties from Bradshaw, so the starter may have limited fantasy appeal if the chances of a score are limited.

    Marshawn Lynch

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -6
  • Lynch has been very productive this season, living up to his “beast mode” moniker. He and the Seahawks have the worst road trip in the NFL this week as they travel all of the way from Seattle to Miami to meet the Dolphins. Miami has a decent rush defense and will be looking to end the losing streak. This game sets up for a low score, and the turnover battle to determine the outcome.

    Adrian Peterson

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -6
  • We give it up to Peterson, who has been awesome this season. He has been very productive coming back from the devastating knee injury, even against eight-man defensive fronts. This week's game at Chicago will be another big test for the one-dimensional Vikings offense. Peterson will still get plenty of carries in what looks to be a low scoring affair. But, the chances for a big outing are somewhat muted as the vaunted Bears defense is licking their wounds after getting abused by the 49ers.

    Wide Receiver

    Danny Amendola

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 31
  • Difference: -14
  • The top receiver for the St. Louis Rams will have his hands full with the physical cornerbacks of the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals have a strong defense, even intercepting Matt Ryan five times last week AND not yielding a passing touchdown in the game. We expect low WR3 fantasy production from Amendola, with a little higher appeal in PPR leagues.

    Larry Fitzgerald

  • Top 200 ranking: 18
  • Weekly ranking: 33
  • Difference: -15
  • Fitzgerald has been limited by poor quarterback play this season. Rookie Ryan Lindley will start for the Cardinals against the Rams. We look for tough-playing cornerback Cortland Finnegan to be matched up on Fitzgerald for the contest. This is a bad week for fantasy owners to expect much from Fitzgerald. He is a great player in a tough situation.

    Denarius Moore

  • Top 200 ranking: 22
  • Weekly ranking: 45
  • Difference: -23
  • Moore has not caught many balls of late, and faces the young and talented and now healthy Cincinnati Bengals secondary. We are expecting the Cincinnati pass defense to limit the big plays for Moore. While he could pick up some garbage time numbers, we are not expecting a fantasy-viable outcome for fantasy owners.

    Tight End

    Antonio Gates

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -7
  • Gates has fallen several spots in the Top 200 with lacking play and a struggling quarterback. This week's game against the Baltimore Ravens will be another tough matchup. After only catching a couple of Philip Rivers passes last Sunday, this week looks like another which will be difficult to start the aging tight end. It is best to keep him on your bench unless desperate.

    Kyle Rudolph

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -6
  • While we like Rudolph's dynasty prospects, he continues to be an inconsistent redraft option given the play of quarterback Christian Ponder. The game this week against the Chicago Bears defense will be a rough matchup. We expect the Bears defense to be hopping mad after getting lit up by Colin Kaepernick on Monday Night Football. There are better options this week.

    Kicker

    Blair Walsh

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -22
  • The rookie kicker who enjoys the dome will get his first taste of Soldier Field. The Bears home field is a difficult one for kickers and we do not anticipate many field goal opportunities for Walsh.

    Jason Hanson

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -8
  • The Detroit Lions host the Houston Texans in a battle of teams going in opposite directions. The Texans defense has played well for most of the season except last week against the Jaguars and should do well to hold the Lions offense in check.

    Defense

    New York Giants

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -13
  • The Giants defense hosts the Packers offense in what looks to be a very tough spot for fantasy owners. Given the ability of the Green Bay passing game to light the scoreboard, fantasy owners are discouraged from starting the New York defense as Rodgers does not throw many interceptions and could put up 40 points any given week.

    New England Patriots

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -15
  • The Patriots meet the Jets on Thanksgiving evening. Normally, we like opposing fantasy defenses facing New York, but this game is always different. The Jets play the Patriots tight most every time and Sanchez has enjoyed quality starts against the division rival.

    Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.

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