Dynasty Movement - Week 12
by FBG Staff
November 21st, 2012

Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the two contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the "why" more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.

Quarterback

Sigmund Bloom

Sam Bradford, (Upgrade): With Danny Amendola back against a tough San Francisco defense, Bradford looked like a confident quarterback. Even though he had a down game against the Jets, there's reason to think that Bradford can recapture the form that gave him so much promise in his rookie year.

Colin Kaepernick, (Upgrade): After a strong second half and overtime against the Rams, Kaepernick destroyed the vaunted Bears defense to turn himself into one of the hottest dynasty prospects at quarterback in the fantasy football world.

Matt Cassel, (Downgrade): With his benching for Brady Quinn, Cassel is done as an NFL starting quarterback. His fantasy value has completely evaporated.

John Skelton, (Downgrade): The Cardinals coaches were so disgusted with Skelton that they benched him in a winnable game against the team with the best record in the NFC for a rookie quarterback (Ryan Lindley) that clearly did not belong on the field.

Alex Smith, (Downgrade): It's impossible to imagine Smith as the starting quarterback for the 49ers next year. Maybe even next week.

Andrew Garda

Colin Kaepernick, (Upgrade): He might not even get the next start because Harbaugh loves him some Alex Smith, but folks on Monday Night you saw the future and the future is Kaepernick. The second year player has accuracy Smith lacks deep, better arm strength, mobility he gives San Fran versatility which Smith can't even dream of. He'll take over, it's a matter of when.

Alex Smith (Downgrade): That sound you heard Monday Night? That was the last gasp of Alex Smith's dynasty value as it took a shot to the solar plexus from a strong pass by Colin Kaepernick. Smith has always been a band-aid and frankly, he holds the offense back in many respects. Niner fans never like to hear it but when you get the 49ers down by a couple of touchdowns, Smith is not bringing you back. He is however holding the team back and it's only a matter of time before he is replaced permanently.

Michael Vick (Downgrade): With the real chance that Andy Reid is gone and wholesale changes could be made in Philly, is it a shock Vick drops? On top of that, he just takes too many hits. It's all well and good to talk about his incredibly high ceiling, but that's not helpful when the ladder under him gets knocked out every week and he hits his floor instead. Vick is very talented and very fragile and that won't change soon and isn't likely to change in Philadelphia.

Will Grant

Robert Griffin III (Upgrade): I admit it. I figured that RGIII was going to be OK but not great. A solid QB2 or maybe a bye week starter. Right now he's looking like a top five QB. With so many question marks surrounding guys like Michael Vick, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton, a guy like Griffin is about as safe as they come. Griffin is a guy that you can build an offense around, especially if the Redskins can upgrade their receiving corps.

Colin Kaepernick (Upgrade): If the Monday night game against Chicago didn't convince you that Kaepernick is the real deal, think about the fact that the 49ers have been looking to get rid of Alex Smith for a couple years now. They nearly pulled off landing Peyton Manning in the off-season and almost let Smith go to free agency. Now Smith is on the sidelines with a concussion and all people are talking about is a QB controversy. Jim Harbaugh didn't help by being coy about how he'd be choosing his starter this week. Kaepernick could be the long term answer in SF or someplace else. He's definitely worth having on your dynasty roster as a pick for the future.

Michael Vick (Downgrade): It looks like the bubble has popped on Vick. After a top five finish in 2010, it looked like Vick would return to his old form. Instead he has slowly declined and his performance leading into the concussion he sustained two weeks ago has been below average at best. Vick is going to be 33 at the start of next season, and there's a good chance he won't be with the Eagles either. His long-term prospects don't look great right now and he's falling like a stone in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

Running Back

Bruce Hammond

Andrew Garda

C.J. Spiller (Upgrade): Spiller will keep getting his chances and despite some bizarre playcalling in Buffalo, his talent shines through. How much longer can the team put up with Fred Jackson's constant injuries? If I could, I'd acquire Spiller before season's end. Even if there is a new coach, QB or receiver added to the mix, Spiller will get his going forward.

Ronnie Hillman (Upgrade): I really liked what I saw from Hillman last week and with Willis McGahee hurt, he will get some carries, even if they split with Lance Ball. Ball isn't a long term answer and the Broncos brought Hillman in to be 'that guy'. He needs to improve pass protection, but otherwise I see great things for him going forward.

Jacquizz Rodgers (Upgrade): With Mike Turner looking larger and less effective, Quiz will become a bigger and bigger part of the offense and what an offense it is. There are never any stacked fronts for a running back to face, not with the receivers and Matt Ryan in town. Quiz has tremendous speed and skill and will fit in very well in this offense going forward. Expect him to take over completely in 2013.

Darren Sproles (Downgrade): Hurt often and lost in the mix in the backfield for the Saints, Sproles crashed to earth after a tremendous 2011. My concern is that the team wasn't using him as they did last season and after he's been hurt the backfield is even more murky. He's not dropping off the face of the planet, but he is not the productive back we saw last year either because the Saints don't seem to need or want him to be.

Michael Turner (Downgrade): Here's a guy who couldn't find the end zone most days with a road map. He gets stuffed at the line, looks slow and generally appears to have lost more than one step this season. Expect Jacquizz Rodgers to take his job the rest of the way and who knows what happens in 2013.

Will Grant

DeMarco Murray (Downgrade): For a guy that went in the top 20 picks of most redraft leagues this season, to say that Murray underachieved is like saying that the Cowboys and the Redskins "don't get along". Murray has shown flashes of greatness when he's in the game, but he just can't seem to stay healthy and the Cowboys limit his touches when he is. Murray looks like a RBBC guy at best, and from a fantasy prospective, he's looking like a flex back or bye week filler.

Vick Ballard (Upgrade): Donald Brown has never been an impressive fantasy back. Was it any surprise that even when he came back from injury, Ballard was still named the starting back in Indy? I expect Ballard to be the primary ball carrier for the Colts the rest of the way. I don't know if that translates into long term potential or if the Colts draft another RB this summer, but for Ballard, it means good things in the near term.

Sigmund Bloom

Ryan Mathews, (Downgrade): Mathews can't stay healthy, can't win a true feature back job, and he can't produce behind an ineffective offensive line. The hopes of him joining the elite fantasy running back tier are waning.

Chris Ivory, (Upgrade): Ivory isn't on the right team to get a large workload, but he has shown the speed, power, moves, and angry running style to deserve one in the future. He's one of the best running backs to stash in dynasty leagues as we get closer to the end of the season.

Lamar Miller, (Upgrade): Miller hasn't done much this season, but the rookie is in line for a huge opportunity next year with reports that Reggie Bush won't return to the Dolphins and Daniel Thomas's continued inability to look like the running back he was at Kansas State that merited a second-round pick.

Alfred Morris, (Upgrade): Not only has Alfred Morris dispelled the myth that Mike Shanahan is fickle about his running backs, he has taken over as the three-down back and appears to have a long-term stranglehold on the running back position in Washington.

Marcel Reece, (Upgrade): After flashing with a minuscule workload, Reece got a starter's share of touches the last two weeks and shined as a receiver and runner out of the backfield. Darren McFadden is still the primary back in Oakland, but there's no denying Reece's ability to be an offensive weapon now.

Wide Receiver

Will Grant

Denarius Moore (Upgrade): I downgraded Moore earlier this season because he was banged up and it looked like he was on his way to another ho-hum season. However, since week three, he has been posting pretty solid numbers with four or five catches for seven straight weeks and five TD receptions so far this season. Now of course I upgraded him this week and he turned in a 1 catch performance against the Saints, but I think he's going to bounce back long term. Approach with caution but don't avoid like the plague.

Dwayne Bowe (Downgrade): Bowe feels like Lee Evans to me. Evans was a guy that everyone recognized had a lot of talent, but he was on a team that just didn't seem to use him in the way that made him effective. Bowe was the #2 fantasy WR two seasons ago, and has the talent to be a top five guy year after year. Yet the Kansas City offense is flat out putrid and Bowe looks like he's on his way to another disappointing season from a fantasy prospective. Until the Chiefs figure out that they don't have a quarterback on staff, Bowe is going to be a guy that you want to start every week, but he will break your heart with his inconsistent performances.

Sigmund Bloom

Jeremy Maclin, (Downgrade): Between his inconsistent production, continued problems staying healthy, and the long-term turmoil in Philly at quarterback and head coach, Maclin is starting to look like one of those talents who will never deliver on his immense potential.

Danny Amendola, (Upgrade): Amendola returned to the field after suffering a potentially life-threatening collarbone injury and looked like a true #1 receiver against a fierce San Francisco defense. He was reeling in deep balls in addition to the quick passes he lives on with short routes out of the slot. Amendola is a fantasy #1 in PPR leagues, and he is approaching every-week start status in all leagues.

Randall Cobb, (Upgrade): Cobb is emerging as the number one target in one of the best passing offenses in the league. He has made clutch catches in two recent close Green Bay wins, and he is doing damage on short passes and long passes, in the middle of the field and on the sidelines. Soon we might be saying Percy Harvin is Minnesota's Randall Cobb.

Julio Jones, (Downgrade): Jones prodigious physical ability is unquestioned, but his ability to stay on the field and produce consistently is still uncertain. Jones possess top 5 fantasy wide receiver upside, but it's theoretical until he puts it together for a whole season.

Andrew Garda

Randall Cobb (Upgrade): Every week this guy gets better and better. I loved Cobb the moment the Packers picked him up in the 2011 Draft and he's yet to let me down this year. A beast with the ball in his hands, the Packers are hell-bent on getting him the rock in any way possible. He's going to be a fantasy beast for a long time to come.

Ryan Broyles (Upgrade): With Titus Young suspended, Broyles has a chance to take the number two position and make it his. It's a lot to ask for a raw receiver, but he's getting tons of praise nationally and I've liked what I have seen from him so far on the field. The Lions have to get other receivers involved beyond Calvin Johnson because so far the 'Megatron Matrix' or ratio or whatever isn't working. Broyles has the skills and will be the number two guy in Detroit for a long time to come.

Justin Blackmon (Downgrade): Yeah you'd think his value couldn't drop more but here we are. He had one good game but has looked worse and worse every week overall. He may turn it around down the road but right now, it's a disaster.

Titus Young (Downgrade): Suspended? Titus Young? Who ever could have predicted that? Young seems to have learned nothing from his last suspension this preseason for a fight with safety Louis Delmas and when you lose your wide receiver coach's support, you've got issues. I thought Young might have a breakout year despite his issues, but it appears as if he won't be breaking out of anything right now.

Tight End

Sigmund Bloom

Dwayne Allen, (Upgrade): Allen has mostly shined with fellow rookie Coby Fleener out. He's getting open on downfield routes, moving and catching the ball well, and providing a big target for Andrew Luck in the middle of the field. With Luck looking like an instant stud, Allen is already a TE1.

Antonio Gates, (Downgrade): It's hard to pinpoint exactly why his numbers have dropped, because Gates doesn't look THAT much slower or less able on the field, but there's no denying that his diminished production is not a fluke. Gates will probably never be a top five fantasy tight end again.

Andrew Garda

Kyle Rudolph (Downgrade): It breaks my heart as he still has the skill to do great things, but the Vikings can't get him the ball. Defenses have done an outstanding job locking him down, and Christian Ponder is having too many issues getting the ball to him cleanly. He might emerge again as a bigger threat but right now it doesn't look good.

Will Grant

Jacob Tamme (Downgrade): Any thought that Tamme and Manning will turn into the dynamic duo that they were in Indianapolis should be long gone. Tamme is barely posting top 30 numbers and hasn't scored a TD since week 1. He's a guy who won't post more than three or four receptions in any particular week and won't see enough red-zone action to warrant having him on your roster as anything more than an emergency backup.

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